1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

There is a lot to cheer about and to be optimistic about if you love comics. Don't let thoughts of impending doom and gloom ruin a perfectly good hobby and take the joy out of it.

 

I agree! This is also the reason I've started collecting far less expensive books recently. Being burnt-out on paying multiple upon multiple for rare silver age books, I shifted my focus and am back to enjoying what I collect again.

 

Just because I am no longer pursuing early high grade FFs with wild abandon doesn't mean I won't eagerly await the FF movie, or the continuation of the Ultimate FF series (and for godsake's, can we wrap up the origin already?!?). And I'll still probably buy a nice FF # 5 at some point, just because it is a holy grail.

 

It all depends on how satisfied you are with what you have.

[hobbes]

I just read this thread start to finish.

 

Don't presume to know my actions or motivations.

 

This line right here sums up my feelings on my hobby.

 

Why does this topic come up? A warning to those who invest in comics when they should be investing elsewhere? Why care what others spend their hard earned cash on? I don't care. Let Mr Comic Investor drop thousands on a modern in a plastic case. That is his business, his money. Not mine. Why beat this horse?

 

I went out with my significant other last night for dinner and drinks. We talked about a wide range of topics. Comics came up a lot. She does not understand the drive, the desire, the enjoyment of the hobby. She can see it in me but it is alien to her. I cannot explain to her my motivations to save my dying soul. I get up this morning and see this thread. The topic is different but the underlying point is identical. Why try to change the actions and motivations of others? Is that the point ot these threads? If it is, then it is a fool's errand.

[dam60]

Gene, I have been welcoming your response!!! allow me to address in order:

Wasn't there a recession in 1991? (correlation to declining coin prices perhaps? ) Didn't comics undergo a huge run up in the recession of 2001-2003?

 

Was there slabbing in 1991? We're not talking macroeconomics here, we're talking what happens once slabbing is introduced into a hobby. Besides, the slabbed coin market peaked in 1989, before the recession, and the slide continued into the mid-1990s, well after the recession ended. Your argument is totally off-base.

 

Okay, if we are talking the influences of a third party grading system I would be interested to know first off:

1 - what do you think will crash exactly? Is this the HG cgc 9.2 and up for pre 1968 comics or is this across the board raw and slabbed new and old issues?

 

I based my previous statements off of the believe that you were referring to cgc 9.x of 1968 and prior books

 

Also, let's be honest - what occurs in the mainstream to get people excited about coin collecting?

 

Dave, I'm shocked that you would subscribe to this very comics-centric point of view. I'm sorry, the world does not revolve around comics for most people. People get WAY excited about coin collecting in a way that comic fanboys don't understand. Someone paid $7.6 million for a coin in 2002 - that's "f you" money. No, that's "f your puny Action #1, Marvel Comics #1, Tec #27" money.

 

I agree with you about the Action 1 being pennies but by doing such you are also makign the elite coin collecting community a segment of the hobby privy to only a handful of people! You can track trends when you have greater supply. That 7.6mm coin is going to be pretty easy to follow if and when it surfaces . . .

 

 

I do think that a "crash" is impossible AS THERE ISN'T ENOUGH LIQUIDITY

 

Simply wrong. You can have a crash even in one-of-a-kind items. Items do not even need to transact for there to be a crash. We don't live in a world where prices are measured in historical costs and accounting fiction, we live in a world where value changes in real-time. On September 12, 2001, I can tell you that the value of the World Trade Center was not what Larry Silverstein paid for it 7 weeks prior to 9/11. When the art market went into the tank in the early '90s, Van Gogh's "The Portrait of Dr. Gachet" was worth nowhere near $82.5 million even though it was not sold during that time (in fact, it appears to have been lost or destroyed and has never resurfaced).

 

Let's agree that we need a better definition of what constitutes a crash. Personally my definition would include the follwing:

1 - a "severe" depreciation in asset values (I'll let you define "severe")

2 - a downturn so severe that a "significant" amount of the "populace".

 

When I think crash I think of great depression. When I think of Van Gogh I think of a select group within the art community. The scope isn't broad enough for me to classify as a crash.

 

I would very much be interested on a definition of a crash as I feel that we believe the same thing and that that this is a battle over semantics.

 

For those who discount anything outside of the comics world, just look at Italian-Treasure's horrific ASM losses. Tell him that his losses weren't supposed to be theoretically possible given the Internet, bullet-proofing of HG keys, global participation in the comics hobby, etc. And let's not nitpick about the definition of a crash - the coin market crash is recognized as such, even though it took more time than what you have told me you believe is a crash. Let's just say that a major decline in the slabbed comics market is far from ruled out on liquidity grounds.

 

Gene

 

Again, I don't dispute the high prices being paid are ludicris and I do think that there will be a drop in prices. That drop in prices will be limited to a certain subsect in that market. That certain subsect of the market isn't big enough, even if all the pre-1968 slabbed books in 9.x went to "0" to constitute a crash.

 

DAM

[dam60]

JC - let's do some math then. Let's assume that the article was written in 1995 (I'm too lazy to look it up).

 

Actually I think it was 2001.

 

The numbers are still weighted towards the coin grading at the present time, but also keep in mind that as the years have gone by, Valiantman has noted an increase in overall submissions.

 

Just like in coins, more employees and greater efficiencies have CGC grading more in Year 4 than in Year 1, and the Lord only knows how many they'll be pumping out in Year 16.

 

Okay, JC lets face the facts - at optimal capactiy with x graders you can only pump out y books. Year 4 vs Year 1 might see a increase in overall books being graded but it won't be exponential unless you start to screw around with your variables (i.e. x+2 graders)

 

DAM

[qualitycomix]

I don't know how true that statement is. How many investors has JP brought into the hobby? How many other newbies do you know of, personally? These are not attack questions to defend my position, but an objective look at the assumptions made based on what I perceive to be speculation of the current state of the market.

 

Well, back when I was running the CI hobby site, I used to get reams of newbie emails asking my advice on "what was the best investment?" and "Is this a good buy?" emails.

 

These bozos wouldn't know a comic book from a cook book, yet here they were tossing serious cash into comics simply because they had been fed a line of BS about "guaranteed to increase in value".

 

Trust me, there's a lot of people like that still out there, with the mistaken impression that CGC books 'even the playing field" and allow rank newbies to invest in plastic slabs for guaranteed returns.

 

As you and I both know, there are no "guaranteed" returns and any speculator that thinks that is either naive, or just plain ignorant.

 

CGC has evened the playing field but you have to know the game that you're playing!

 

My fear is the same as what happened in the stock market. Newbie investors bought stocks and options on the margin, maxed out their credit cards in the hope of short term returns. And they invested in the most dangerous unproven stocks. When the prices fell a little, the market folded like a house of cards and all stocks were hit to some extent.

 

I really don't see this happening in the comics market. It could happen but it probably won't at least for the books that I'm investing in. I invest in high grade early silver. The reason that I don't think that a crash will occur in this era is:

 

1) There is a very large number of knowledgable collectors that are willing to pay top dollar for these high grade silver pre-1965 that they need for their collections

2) If unknowledgable investors dump their books on the market, there is generally enough $$$ out there to cover this

3) This could change in the future, but for right now there are enough $$$ in the hands of knowledgable collectors to buy out the dumping speculators IMHO.

[thecomicsheet]

Here's my latest market indexes. Right now I don't see a current crash in progress. Maybe these indexes will give us a heads up when the crash starts.

 

The Comic Sheet Market Indexes

[drbanner]

I noticed thecomicsheet just updated his CGC price indices and thought it would be interesting to show the data here since it hadn't been mentioned. For those of you that don't know, our very own "thecomicsheet" writes the "Eye on Ebay" resale report every week in the CBG. His website ( click here!)) offers an auction database for sale that contains CGC sales data going back almost two years, as well as other goodies, among them the "CGC Market Index" graphs below. Visit his website to see what books comprise the index, how he compiles the data, as well as a nice selection of raw and slabbed books for sale!

 

Now, the graphs don't start until 5/02, well AFTER the initial CGC Modern Market Crash (Spawn 1, the Wolverine MS, McFarlane Hulks/Spideys, and just about any post-75 non-key in 9.4 or better did "crash" in value from their initial CGC-induced price spikes). Combine these graphs, overlay them with the relatively stable 9.4 and lower raw market, add in Golden Age books and high-grade silver (for a "Total Comic Market" index), and I suspect you would see a graph that looks a lot more like the beautiful Blue Ridge Skyline than the Grand Teton-ish Coin Graph above.

 

 

Certainly CGC 9.4 and above books selling for over $1,000 (GA/SA/BA/Modern) show more volatility, but the graphs above illustrate that a stable modern/bronze market has developed after the initial price surge of '01/early '02, and while the high-grade late silver/early bronze Key market is more variable, at the present time prices are basically at the same level they were almost two years ago.

 

[joe_collector]

Okay, JC lets face the facts - at optimal capactiy with x graders you can only pump out y books. Year 4 vs Year 1 might see a increase in overall books being graded but it won't be exponential unless you start to screw around with your variables (i.e. x+2 graders)

 

What are you talking about?

 

Did you do the math, and compare 16 years of coin grading vs. just 4 for CGC, and then work in the base increase in CGC output?

 

If so, then what's the big deal? Coins come out to app. 180K, and CGC is pumping out over 125K a year in slabs.... I don't see those numbers as being world's apart considering where CGC is in their business model.

[Marvelous]

Okay, JC lets face the facts - at optimal capactiy with x graders you can only pump out y books. Year 4 vs Year 1 might see a increase in overall books being graded but it won't be exponential unless you start to screw around with your variables (i.e. x+2 graders)

 

What are you talking about?

 

Did you do the math, and compare 16 years of coin grading vs. just 4 for CGC, and then work in the base increase in CGC output?

 

If so, then what's the big deal? Coins come out to app. 180K, and CGC is pumping out over 125K a year in slabs.... I don't see those numbers as being world's apart considering where CGC is in their business model.

 

How many comics do you think are CGC worthy JC? I don't know too much about coins, but I bet the ratio of coins being minted to comics being printed has to be at least something like 10:1. All I am saying is that there has to be a cap to the number of comics that are going to be CGC'd and I would be extremely surprised if the number of comics professionally graded would ever equal that of coins.

[joe_collector]

Here's my latest market indexes. Right now I don't see a current crash in progress. Maybe these indexes will give us a heads up when the crash starts.

 

Sorry, but those use way too limited a selection of comics, and only at specific grades, to ever track the entire CGC market. After all, how much do we really expect a Fantastic Four #48 CGC 7.5 copy to fluctuate and who really cares?

 

Using a specific grade (CGC 9.4, 9.8, etc.) index with a wider range of eras and books would work much better, but likely wouldn't fit the overall purpose of a ComicLink price index.

[joe_collector]

How many comics do you think are CGC worthy JC?

 

Ask those Modern Spec Submitters the next time they send a few cases in to be graded. As long as there are comics being printed, there will be comics being graded.

 

Or think of it a different way, using the 180K average coin subs. Don't you think there are enough new comics being printed to support that number?

[underthebigw]

I do not think rarity is the answer to a crash.

 

Trying to campare comics to other hobbies is not viable. Sure you can learn about certain patterns of ups and downs but coins and comics are two different animals. Nostalgia in the coin market is almost nil. No 70 year-old person whips out a 60 year old Mercury Dime from his pocket and remembers with longing the day he spent it on a malt. As a former coin collector there is only so much fascination to be had with them. Sure they are shiny, made of precious metal and are historical in regards to the past, but there is little passion.

 

Comics are pieces of art. Each one is different. There are several ages and dozens of collecting sub-sets.

 

Timely

 

I haven't read the rest of the thread yet, but think about demographics--pretty soon, no 70 year is going to whip out a copy of Capt. Marvel, Phantom Lady, or any other GA title and fondly remember it, either. In fact, I think that's already happened. The only people who have interest in these books are the comic fan who has a sense of history and love of the medium. The days when these books inspire nostalgia are rapidly disappearing as a generation passes away or losses the means to pay for such items. Just another reason the comic and coin markets can be compared.

[Marvelous]

How many comics do you think are CGC worthy JC?

 

Ask those Modern Spec Submitters the next time they send a few cases in to be graded. As long as there are comics being printed, there will be comics being graded.

 

Or think of it a different way, using the 180K average coin subs. Don't you think there are enough new comics being printed to support that number?

 

Ok, let me amend my question. How many GA, SA, and BA comics do you think there are CGC worthy? I personally do not collect or invest in new modern CGC comics and believe that a very large portion of that market will not stand the test of time. For me it is too risky, but to each their own. However, I think GA, SA, BA and pre-1990s market crash keys that have already stood the test of time will continue to go up in value over time. I highly doubt there are 3 million CGC worthy comics and that there definitely would not be 3 million CGC 9.4 and above graded comics of mainstream Super-Hero comics that will be CGC'd IMHO. I think we are talking tens of thousands to a few hundred thousand at best.

[OldGuy]

I noticed thecomicsheet just updated his CGC price indices and thought it would be interesting to show the data here since it hadn't been mentioned.....

 

Thanks for posting that Doc. This threads "word to picture ratio" was getting way out of hand. Us fanboys need pictures.

[Marvelous]

BTW does anyone have the figures on what portion of CGCs business is current new moderns being slabbed and what portion is pre-90s? I don't know, but would guess the number of new comics getting slabbed is a very high percentage of their business.

[drbanner]

I noticed thecomicsheet just updated his CGC price indices and thought it would be interesting to show the data here since it hadn't been mentioned.....

 

Thanks for posting that Doc. This threads "word to picture ratio" was getting way out of hand. Us fanboys need pictures.

 

No problemo, but the kudos go out to thecomicsheet in this case!

[FFB]

Gene,

 

I'll answer your questions when you have a legitimate question to ask. Stick to the facts. If you are going to get personal, I'm going to ignore you.

 

Comics are not commodities...Comics are not even fungible...All of this discussion about comparisons to the coin market or stock market is interesting, but I don't buy the basic premise because I don't believe that anyone who believes these theories has spent half as much time analyzing the differences between these markets as they have analyzing why their theory "might" be right.

 

Spoken like a true fanboy. Of course there are major differences between comics and coins, and I don't think the comic market will follow the exact same path as coins. However, there are also uncanny similarities in the two markets' behavior to date following the introduction of the slabbing phenomenon. Are we to just ignore these because we, personally, think coins are boring and comics are exciting? I'm sorry, but I don't buy into this comic-centric view that comics are some sort of high artform that can inspire nostalgia and passions that other hobbies can't hope to compete with. That is ludicrous, particularly when you see how much money is being shelled out in other hobbies versus our own. We all know FF is a staunch defender of the comic market, but he's intellectually honest and rigorous enough to admit that the comparison with coins is a more than fair comparison. Are you?

 

As for stocks, real estate and other non-collectible markets, of course there are even greater differences. But if you look at them without your comc blinders on, you'll realize that they are driven by the same mass investor participation, greed and fear that drives comics and any other market. Keep an open mind and the truth will set you free.

 

Gene

[FlComicFan]

If you include comics up to 1990 there are a ton waiting to be slabbed We are on a CGC board Most of the colectors here buy and sell CGC slabbed comics. Most of the collectors out there in the real world DO NOT USE CGC There are still tons of collections waiting to be slabbed or may never be CGC graded. There are tons of dealer inventories of unread post 1975 books still waiting to be slabbed. There are tons of books than are so cheap in the guide few are makig the effort to grade them. I am only a small pea in the pod and I have 12 long boxes of 1970's/early 80's books in HG. At $29 a pop they arent worth grading but if that fee goes down or a diff grading company sets a good example and gains the trust of the market those books would be feasible to have graded. Dont believe it? Just how many Daredevil 181's came out of cases to be slabbed when there was enough demand to turn a profit?

[joe_collector]

I am only a small pea in the pod and I have 12 long boxes of 1970's/early 80's books in HG. At $29 a pop they arent worth grading

 

I guarantee that if CGC ever lowers their grading fee at the 1968 to 74 range, the Census will absolutely explode. There are reams of these books in NM or higher, but at $29 a pop, you've got to have nerves of steel to submit the non-key issues.

[Zonker]

Let's run some numbers then:

 

Assumptions

1- look just a 4 Marvel Age books up to the dawn of the Bronze Age: ASM (100 issues), Daredevel (80 issues), FF (100 issues), Avengers (100 issues). I picked these as 4 books likely better-preserved than most, and with round numbers of issues published during the Silver/Marvel Age.

 

2- assume average print run across this period of 300,000

 

3- assume half the above were returned unsold

 

4- here it gets tricky: Assume 1/2 of 1% (.005, or 1 book out of 200) of the sold copies survives in 9.4 or better. This is anyone's guess-- feel free to substitute your own guess.

 

ASM (100 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

F.F. (100 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

Avg. (100 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

D.D. (80 issues) (300,000 @ printed) (.5 sold) (.005 survive in 9.4)

 

That gives you 285,000 potential CGC 9.4 specimens, just from these 4 titles alone, disregarding all Golden Age, all DCs, all Bronze Age, and all other Marvels apart from these 4!

 

So sure, knock down my 1 book out of 200 is 9.4 assumption. Use your own figure, but then start to add back in X-Men, Captain America, Thor, JLA, Green Lantern, etc. etc. etc. You could easily get to 3 million with a few dozen titles, even taking a much more conservative assumption for surviving high grade.

 

 

How many comics do you think are CGC worthy JC?

 

Ask those Modern Spec Submitters the next time they send a few cases in to be graded. As long as there are comics being printed, there will be comics being graded.

 

Or think of it a different way, using the 180K average coin subs. Don't you think there are enough new comics being printed to support that number?

 

Ok, let me amend my question. How many GA, SA, and BA comics do you think there are CGC worthy? I personally do not collect or invest in new modern CGC comics and believe that a very large portion of that market will not stand the test of time. For me it is too risky, but to each their own. However, I think GA, SA, BA and pre-1990s market crash keys that have already stood the test of time will continue to go up in value over time. I highly doubt there are 3 million CGC worthy comics and that there definitely would not be 3 million CGC 9.4 and above graded comics of mainstream Super-Hero comics that will be CGC'd IMHO. I think we are talking tens of thousands to a few hundred thousand at best.