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The 2010 Nik Memorial Grading Contest *Round 6*

Started by DrWatson,

327 posts in this topic

joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
Suppose that an educated guess has a 1 in 3 chance of a bullseye. After four rounds you would expect 1 in 81 people to have a perfect score. After five rounds, 1 in 243.

 

After four rounds we had one perfect score.

After five rounds we had none.

 

OK so each book is different. Some have a greater spread of 'good' guesses, like 1 in 5, while some are more obviously either 9.6 or 9.8. Still, the simple statistical example given proves that the level of precision shown thus far is far from 'impossible'. It looks about right 2c

 

Your first assumption is incorrect, as a couple of the books already shown had a much wider variance than simply 1 in 3. The Secret Wars did (and even it was 1 in 4 if you include 9.9 risk-takers) but not even close on the Marvel Premiere, so right off the bat, your numbers are all :censored: up.

 

One in 5 so far would be more fair.

 

Maybe, but that assumes all players are equal. Some players will have more experience than others in CGC's grading standards. Surely more (but not all) of the outliers are due to inexperience, and more (but again not all) of the bullseyes are due to better educated guesswork.

 

No, the outliers are MUCH larger than 1 in 4 or 5, and I was simply referring to the "logical grade range", which in terms of Secret Wars 8 would be in the 9.4-9.9 range. Anything lower is just a mistake or error, and would not be included in any analysis. Some books might be 1 in 4 while others (especially low/mid-grade from a scan) would have a larger range.

 

I just think a 1 in 3 range is well below what even a HG book would fall in.

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Hibou

Hibou

Posted
Posted
Wow, you guys put a lot of effort into this. It never even crossed my mind to do some of the things others have done. I simply look at the covers, grab my copy of the grading book for support, and make a guess.

 

lol Yeah, me too.

 

My belly button has been puckering and unpuckering all day in anticipation of 8 pm. :banana:

:eek:

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
Hey Joe, are you sure you didn't switch scans on us, my eyes are straining just to see the flaws you speak of. Maybe that's why I'm in the middle of the grading pack lol

 

Even the wrong grade guesses are still great guesses. They just happen to be based on defects that people think they see.

 

Or what they didn't see - I'd be willing to bet a lot of people missed the corner crease on Book 1, otherwise why all the CGC 9.4's?

 

I once asked Steve that very question as I had a pristine book with a tiny cover crease and after I posted the scan he told me that it *might* get a 9.4, assuming the rest of the book was perfect, something that Book 1 is far, far, far from being.

 

Here is the book in question, which is 9.8+ quality with a tiny crease that looks more like a production chip that *might* get a 9.4.

 

107996.jpg

 

In addition to the color-breaking spine creases, edge damage and overall wear, here is the corner crease I am referring to, and what all the 9.4 guessers must have missed. If not, then CGC has changed gears yet again.

108020.jpg.b07b2ffbb8ee98ef9d315f2f5530c283.jpg

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VintageComics

VintageComics

Posted
Posted
If you're talking about the first book, I saw that.

 

And, coupled with the spine creases and overall wear, you guessed 9.4?

 

I think I guessed 9.0 or 9.2...can't remember without checking back.

 

It was after the grade was revealed that I figured that the scanner was showing things differently than the naked eye would actually pick them up. Nick (F_T) and a few other guys disagreed with me but that was the only way for that book to end up grading a 9.4 as far as I'm concerned.

 

I'm guessing that the scanner/software doesn't have a proper color for the center of all of those spine stresses and creases, and rather than make them look dark gray/light black the software defaults to white making the wear look worse than it actually is.

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sckao

sckao

Posted
Posted

LAST CALL for ROUND 6

 

Round 6 ends at 8pm EST Tuesday night.

 

Still need grades from these contestants

 

 

BlowUpTheMoon

Flying Orb

G.A.tor

JiveTurkeyMoFo

Loki

Mr.Diggler

Mutie Fan

piper

Professor66

Scrooge

universal soldier

wasonff

 

 

These contestants have been eliminated or are not participating this round

 

Avengers4

Batty Scrooge

CaptainOfIndustry

Drakeprimeone

Hawkman

Johnny G

LimeGreenJelloMan

Nikelspot

october

the shadow knows

Ze-man

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Reno McCoy

Reno McCoy

Posted
Posted
Wow, you guys put a lot of effort into this. It never even crossed my mind to do some of the things others have done. I simply look at the covers, grab my copy of the grading book for support, and make a guess.

 

lol Yeah, me too.

 

My belly button has been puckering and unpuckering all day in anticipation of 8 pm. :banana:

 

You sure that's your belly button?

 

 

 

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Reno McCoy

Reno McCoy

Posted
Posted

LAST CALL for ROUND 6

 

 

These contestants have been eliminated or are not participating this round

 

Avengers4

Batty Scrooge

CaptainOfIndustry

Drakeprimeone

Hawkman

Johnny G

LimeGreenJelloMan

Nikelspot

october

Scrooge

the shadow knows

Ze-man

 

This is the easiest way for me to move up in the rankings. (thumbs u

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Jeffro.

Jeffro.

Posted
Posted
Wow, you guys put a lot of effort into this. It never even crossed my mind to do some of the things others have done. I simply look at the covers, grab my copy of the grading book for support, and make a guess.

 

lol Yeah, me too.

 

My belly button has been puckering and unpuckering all day in anticipation of 8 pm. :banana:

 

You sure that's your belly button?

 

 

 

Hold on, let me check.

 

 

errrr, nope. :eek: Sorry

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toro

toro

Posted
Posted

Just to set the record straight on the picture invert, I was using that to show how far that crease actually went. I find for the most part inverting finds things that aren't really there, and it is better to stick with the naked eye.

 

To me it is just like blowing up one section of the book, a tiny millimeter crease all of a sudden looks huge and you mark it down. Scans are a fun way to try to grade, I wish there was a way to get a 3D image of the book so we could better ascertain the grade. (but that might be in the 2033 grading contest). The worse part is not knowing what is going on inside of a book. To me that is where a beautiful 9.6 may get knocked down in grade because of some kind of inner problem.

 

Just my 2c

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etanick

etanick

Posted
Posted

I have a few old label 9.4 slabs with the same flaws as that first book...i.e. small color breaking corner creases and a few color loss spine ticks.

 

I don't think CGC is easier at all but hey that is just my few slabs.

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Hibou

Hibou

Posted
Posted

Feh.

 

All feeble attempts IMO...

 

I use a handheld black light and Scotch.

 

 

 

 

After my 3rd drink I hold up my black light to the monitor to check for CT and THEN I submit my grade...

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
I have a few old label 9.4 slabs with the same flaws as that first book...i.e. small color breaking corner creases and a few color loss spine ticks.

 

I am not saying you don't, I was simply retelling a forum question to Steve B, complete with scans. Obviously, CGC has become less stringent since then on wear of this nature, and I am guilty of forgetting that well-established fact.

 

It's also the era that spun me for a loop - if that was a Marvel from 1964, I would have given it a 9.4 no problem, but BA, CA and newer have a higher bar to jump over.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
This is a game...

 

It's just a game...

 

I was stressing about it, the first couple of tries and really screwed up. I will do that again..

 

You think I'm stressed about the contest? lol

 

I am actually worried about getting Bronze Age CGC 9.4's in the mail that look like Book 1. :o:o

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