Post your Overstreet Surprises...

[shiverbones]

I agree FF, the price should be the same slabbed or not. That is the poinjt. A comic in 9.2 is worth xxx, because its in 9.2, not in a slab

[lou_fine]

my biggest OPG surprise was just how hard it will now be to use this years 9.2s as an indication of ho much prices increased. First you have to check last years 9.4, and extrapolate the 9.2 an dmake note of what thi syears 9.2 suggests a 9.4 sells for....

 

sheesh!

 

I didnt expect to have to do so much work. But maybe it will pay off since it appears many prices went way up!!

 

Aman;

 

Have you check pages 115 to 118 to see how OS does his year over year comparisons. He simply assumes that 9.2 last year was halfway between 9.0 and 9.4 last year, and then does a straight comparison to this year's 9.2 price. Maybe a bit too simplified since 9.2 should probably be closer to 9.4 than it is to 9.0, but probably still a fair and fast way of doing it.

 

I have always considered these tables (especially OS's Top 100) to be a nice guage of the market from year to year. Haven't had the time yet to calculate the year over year increase for 2004, but it appears to be a pretty hefty 20+% increase at a glance. Last year's increase was around 12%, the year before that was around 18%, and 2001 was around 25%. Prior to that, we had a few years with increases only in the very low single digits. Should point out to you, however, that these are for top grade prices since price increases in low to mid grades were very limited, if any, on a year over year basis. This last point is very important to keep in mind since most people are wishful thinkers and look at only the top end prices in the guide. Actually, probably a pretty good reflection of the mood in the real marketplace.

 

Still, an interesting graph to put up for trend analysis and compare it to some of the other collectibles or investments. Maybe we should ask Gene for his professional opinion to see if it would be relevant.

[BassGMan]

Just a quick thought here.

 

Daredevil #1 in the guide last year was $3200 in 9.4

 

This year it is $3800 in 9.2.

 

So how much do you think a raw NM copy will go for ?

 

That question is irrelevant as you will never see a legitimate raw NM Daredevil #1 for sale. If you do, it is vastly overgraded or a scam. Same with other NM key books of that calibur.-----Sid

 

People do still have raw silver nm books in their collection. They most likely aren't going to be up for sale until the owner dies or is forced to sell.

 

Where do the CGC nm books come from?....i.e. they were obviously raw at some point. Not everyone wants their book in a slab. Sorry, I just have problems with people using absolutes(nothing personal). Yes, there are most likely few nm silver books around, but it is still possible.

 

You apparently did not get my point. Of course there are still many raw NM Silver books around. But my comment was about a book the calibur of a NM Daredevil #1 that is put up for sale that is Raw at the time of offering. Sure, there are people with raw books worth five grand or more. But when these guys decide to sell they would be STUPID (IMO) to not get them slabbed first. I am not talking about whether the book should sell for more or less because of the slab, I am just saying nobody that knows anything about valuable comics these days who wants to sell a legitimate NM book worth thousands of dollars is going to try to sell it raw unless it is to their good buddy or relative. Or to a total pro collector or dealer who has the ability to examine the book in person with the ability to detect restoration. Sure, there may be an exception or two, but not enough to make my point invalid. -----Sid

[blutobc]

You apparently did not get my point. Of course there are still many raw NM Silver books around. But my comment was about a book the calibur of a NM Daredevil #1 that is put up for sale that is Raw at the time of offering. Sure, there are people with raw books worth five grand or more. But when these guys decide to sell they would be STUPID (IMO) to not get them slabbed first. I am not talking about whether the book should sell for more or less because of the slab, I am just saying nobody that knows anything about valuable comics these days who wants to sell a legitimate NM book worth thousands of dollars is going to try to sell it raw unless it is to their good buddy or relative. Or to a total pro collector or dealer who has the ability to examine the book in person with the ability to detect restoration. Sure, there may be an exception or two, but not enough to make my point invalid. -----Sid

 

Point taken....but, don't most of us collectors(me) and flippers troll the web looking for that STUPID person's auction or someone similar in need of quick cash. Hope springs eternal!!!!! or kinda like you said "stupid is as stupid does"

 

Okay, back to OPG suprises. I'm picking my copy up tomorrow(Payday!!!) I think someone earlier said Marvel Spotlight #5 did not rise very much...That will surprise me.

[drbanner]

I stopped by the LCS on the way home yesterday and picked up the guide. Every Hulk under 200 is now listed at more in NM- than it was listed in NM last year! I assume the same holds true for all the mainstream titles, and it's obvious that OS applied what had been the typical, conservative price bumps in NM prices but changed the column to NM-. This move effectively doubled the "value" of all silver and bronze age comics in NM (assuming 9.4's sell for about 80% more than 9.2's). This is a pretty radical change, and as Lou points out above the guide is now slanted towards slabbed sales, although it's still in limbo between the two markets.

 

Whether or not people feel a 9.2 should be worth the same slabbed or not, the reality is that the market does not value raw books the same as slabbed books. Also, for the majority of post-1970 books, the cost of slabbing itself is enough to make slabbed books "worth" twice as much as raw books, so a single guide value does not address this.

 

I did notice that prices on more modern books (i.e., Hulks after 200, not USM or UXM, etc.,.) didn't change, and more importantly - in general, guide prices for low and mid grade didn't change either, which reflects the increasing price spreads we see between low, mid, and high-grade books.

 

But does all this really matter? Not on high-grade, valuable books which are always sold slabbed anyway, but for collectors of raw, high-grade late silver and bronze age books (which can be found raw) it looks like the "retail" cost of our hobby just doubled.

[BassGMan]

 

Point taken....but, don't most of us collectors(me) and flippers troll the web looking for that STUPID person's auction or someone similar in need of quick cash. Hope springs eternal!!!!! or kinda like you said "stupid is as stupid does"

 

 

Yes, we certainly do go looking for the uninformed selling off high grade keys worth big bucks. But, ya' never know what 'yer gonna get when you do that. I have hit the jackpot a few times like that but I have also hit potholes as well. ----Sid

[awe4one]

But does all this really matter? Not on high-grade, valuable books which are always sold slabbed anyway, but for collectors of raw, high-grade late silver and bronze age books (which can be found raw) it looks like the "retail" cost of our hobby just doubled.

 

On paper....at least for now.....

 

I'm not willing to play the game of "guess the price of this raw 9.4". And I suspect there's alot of other late Silver/Bronze collectors that feel the same way......

 

I expect this will hurt high grade raw prices in the near term....and maybe further drag slabbed prices down with it.....

 

Jim

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

But does all this really matter? Not on high-grade, valuable books which are always sold slabbed anyway, but for collectors of raw, high-grade late silver and bronze age books (which can be found raw) it looks like the "retail" cost of our hobby just doubled.

 

I certainly differ from you on this.

 

Here is a question for everyone reading....say there is a late Silver or Bronze book that you want (Marvel or DC, doesn't matter) and you find it at a show. Its a solid 9.4, possible 9.6, and the dealer has it marked at three times Guide (which for this example, is $25 in NM- according to the new OS..so, a non-key book).

 

Now, do you pay the dealer's $75? I'd bet maybe 1 out of every 10 people who want that book would be willing to fork over the $75. Would you pay $50? Again, I think most people would not.

 

I know I am going to approach my raw, non-key buying with this attitude...it all comes down to the risk/reward factor. I won't pay twice the 9.2 price for common, raw advertised 9.4s...because the risks of overgrading, possible restoration, and future liquidity as a unslabbed collectable far outweigh the reward. That's why I think people who start slapping 2-3 times Guide multiples on their common, raw Silver and Bronze 9.4s are going to meet with price resistance. Heck, the multiples on common slabbed 9.4s have been steadily declining across the board for three years...there is no reason to think the opposite will hold true with raw books.

 

I think a 15-40% premium over the 9.2 price for true raw 9.4s is not unreasonable, and that's on books with a steady demand. Books like the Eternals # 1 will still be an under Guide book, and so will 80% of the drek from 1969-on.

 

Dealers, stores, and collectors who think the new OS just increased the value of their high grade inventory/collections by 50-100% will be mistaken.

[drbanner]

But does all this really matter? Not on high-grade, valuable books which are always sold slabbed anyway, but for collectors of raw, high-grade late silver and bronze age books (which can be found raw) it looks like the "retail" cost of our hobby just doubled.

 

On paper....at least for now.....

 

I'm not willing to play the game of "guess the price of this raw 9.4". And I suspect there's alot of other late Silver/Bronze collectors that feel the same way......

 

I expect this will hurt high grade raw prices in the near term....and maybe further drag slabbed prices down with it.....

 

Jim

 

I agree. My question is this - if you're looking at a raw NM book that guides for $20 in NM- (and was $18 last year in NM), what's the current price/value?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

if you're looking at a raw NM book that guides for $20 in NM- (and was $18 last year in NM), what's the current price/value?

 

Depends on the book...a true NM FF # 129 with white cover and pages would be a $40 book (to me)...double the NM- price. An FF # 127, on the other hand, since I have two nice copies already, is a $22-$25 book tops.

 

Since there is no longer a set "NM 9.4" Guide value, the price will be set by demand, which is as it should be.

[awe4one]

Dealers, stores, and collectors who think the new OS just increased the value of their high grade inventory/collections by 50-100% will be mistaken.

 

But they will try to get these prices anyway.....at least for awhile.

 

By the way I agree with most everything you wrote but I suspect that the 50% markup will only occur on absolutely pristine copies. Any question and the price falls considerably.

 

Jim

[drbanner]

But does all this really matter? Not on high-grade, valuable books which are always sold slabbed anyway, but for collectors of raw, high-grade late silver and bronze age books (which can be found raw) it looks like the "retail" cost of our hobby just doubled.

 

I certainly differ from you on this.

 

Here is a question for everyone reading....say there is a late Silver or Bronze book that you want (Marvel or DC, doesn't matter) and you find it at a show. Its a solid 9.4, possible 9.6, and the dealer has it marked at three times Guide (which for this example, is $25 in NM- according to the new OS..so, a non-key book).

 

Now, do you pay the dealer's $75? I'd bet maybe 1 out of every 10 people who want that book would be willing to fork over the $75. Would you pay $50? Again, I think most people would not.

 

I know I am going to approach my raw, non-key buying with this attitude...it all comes down to the risk/reward factor. I won't pay twice the 9.2 price for common, raw advertised 9.4s...because the risks of overgrading, possible restoration, and future liquidity as a unslabbed collectable far outweigh the reward. That's why I think people who start slapping 2-3 times Guide multiples on their common, raw Silver and Bronze 9.4s are going to meet with price resistance. Heck, the multiples on common slabbed 9.4s have been steadily declining across the board for three years...there is no reason to think the opposite will hold true with raw books.

 

I think a 15-40% premium over the 9.2 price for true raw 9.4s is not unreasonable, and that's on books with a steady demand. Books like the Eternals # 1 will still be an under Guide book, and so will 80% of the drek from 1969-on.

 

Dealers, stores, and collectors who think the new OS just increased the value of their high grade inventory/collections by 50-100% will be mistaken.

 

Actually, I think you agree with me - note I said "retail" cost, which for a LCS would be based on guide value. If a dealer has a book he grades NM and the guide says it's worth $25 in NM-, he's not going to put $25 on it...he's going to put something higher (might be $50, might be $35, but it won't be $25). And a year from now a collector will look at that book and think they'd be getting a great deal on it at $35, which I don't think they will and which is why I think there's a fundamental problem with the programmatic way OS revised the guide.

 

IMHO, it would have been better to keep the NM price and jack the value up to something more realistic.

[drbanner]

if you're looking at a raw NM book that guides for $20 in NM- (and was $18 last year in NM), what's the current price/value?

 

Depends on the book...a true NM FF # 129 with white cover and pages would be a $40 book (to me)...double the NM- price. An FF # 127, on the other hand, since I have two nice copies already, is a $22-$25 book tops.

 

Since there is no longer a set "NM 9.4" Guide value, the price will be set by demand, which is as it should be.

 

See, you've already accepted the guide is irrelevant!!

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

IMHO, it would have been better to keep the NM price and jack the value up to something more realistic.

 

You are right, I think we agree on all but the above point....I think the 9.4 and above grade tier is so volatile, that you could never come up with a satisfactory median price....especially when you are trying to put out a Guide that takes into account both slabbed AND raw copies.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

if you're looking at a raw NM book that guides for $20 in NM- (and was $18 last year in NM), what's the current price/value?

 

Depends on the book...a true NM FF # 129 with white cover and pages would be a $40 book (to me)...double the NM- price. An FF # 127, on the other hand, since I have two nice copies already, is a $22-$25 book tops.

 

Since there is no longer a set "NM 9.4" Guide value, the price will be set by demand, which is as it should be.

 

See, you've already accepted the guide is irrelevant!!

 

Hell, I could have told you that!

[drbanner]

if you're looking at a raw NM book that guides for $20 in NM- (and was $18 last year in NM), what's the current price/value?

 

Depends on the book...a true NM FF # 129 with white cover and pages would be a $40 book (to me)...double the NM- price. An FF # 127, on the other hand, since I have two nice copies already, is a $22-$25 book tops.

 

Since there is no longer a set "NM 9.4" Guide value, the price will be set by demand, which is as it should be.

 

See, you've already accepted the guide is irrelevant!!

 

Hell, I could have told you that!

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

if you're looking at a raw NM book that guides for $20 in NM- (and was $18 last year in NM), what's the current price/value?

 

Depends on the book...a true NM FF # 129 with white cover and pages would be a $40 book (to me)...double the NM- price. An FF # 127, on the other hand, since I have two nice copies already, is a $22-$25 book tops.

 

Since there is no longer a set "NM 9.4" Guide value, the price will be set by demand, which is as it should be.

 

See, you've already accepted the guide is irrelevant!!

 

Hell, I could have told you that!

 

 

And no, I'm not a graduate of the "Joe Collector Logic and Debate" school.

[sfilosa]

What really seems to be the issue is:

 

What is the guide value of 9.4 books? Is it 20% above 9.2 or 80%. And I'm not talking about early Silver-Age books that are next to impossible in unslabbed 9.4.

 

I'm talking about post-1965 Silver-Age and Bronze-Age books? Assuming you see these books at shows (or reputable dealers), what percent above 9.2 are you willing to pay?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

What is the guide value of 9.4 books?

 

I like the fact that there is none...and that Overstreet has taken itself out of trying to assess/predict this volatile area of high grade collecting. In the coming year, many 9.4s will sell for under 9.2 Guide, and many will fetch many multiples of NM-, both slabbed and raw. Let the market do its thing.

[drbanner]

What really seems to be the issue is:

 

What is the guide value of 9.4 books? Is it 20% above 9.2 or 80%. And I'm not talking about early Silver-Age books that are next to impossible in unslabbed 9.4.

 

I'm talking about post-1965 Silver-Age and Bronze-Age books? Assuming you see these books at shows (or reputable dealers), what percent above 9.2 are you willing to pay?

 

I agree, and would add - is the 9.2 value accurate? I've been throwing out 80% to use a number, but that is approximately the difference between 9.2 and 9.4 using the CBG multipliers and a couple GPA spot checks. I would think all things equal, a 9.4 is worth at least 50% more than a 9.2.