blowout Posted January 6, 2003 Author Share Posted January 6, 2003 Sabretooth was only ever really a second rate Wolverine, so it is unfair to use the first appearance of Sabby as a justification for the fall of Hulk #181. Sabretooth is getting no exposure: he is not in X-Men 2, doesn't appear in the X-Men comic books and doesn't have his own regular series. No wonder his first app is seing no new heat. Wolverine, on the other hand is the star of X-Men 2, is about to get a rebooted regular series, has had a hit retelling of his origin and seems as popular as ever. So Hulk #181 can only go up can't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murph0 Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 I may have one available if these bastards spook me out of the one I just bought Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blowout Posted January 6, 2003 Author Share Posted January 6, 2003 "I'm a damned Spiderman fan." For someone who is such a great fan of Spider-Man, you could at least learn to spell his name right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murph0 Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Trying to reach the hyphen key screws up my hand placement on the keyboard, therefore slowing down my posting capabilities..consider this econo mode. Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 (edited) I disagree, I sense Wolverines popularity is waning somewhat. Someone finally has the guts to say it! Wolverine is so over-exposed these days it's not funny. He's in Uncanny X-Men, New X-Men, Ultimate X-Men and Wolverine every month...and recently in Wolverine: Netsuke, Wolverine and the Hulk, Wolverine: The Origin, Elektra & Wolverine: The Redeemer, Logan & Ben Grimm (or whatever that was), plus guest-appearances in X-Force, Punisher, etc. etc. And now we have another Wolverine/Hulk mini-series due out any day, a Wolverine & Doop 2-parter coming out soon, a reboot of his solo series, sequels to Origin that Marvel will undoubtedly cash in for the next decade...can he get more popular than he is now? Once you're at the top of the mountain, isn't it all downhill from here? I suspect that Wolverine's popularity will top out soon if it hasn't already. Sure, X-Men 2 will boost his exposure in the short-term, but will he be more popular than he was when they were printing a gazillion copies of his mini-series in 1982? When they launched his solo book in 1988? When X-Men #1 sold multi-millions in 1991? When Wolvie stole the show in the first X-Men film in 2000? When Origin fever got our speculative juices flowing in 2001-2002? Will the next generation of collectors be all ga-ga about Wolverine as we are today? Enough to pay $10,000 for his first appearance ($10K still buys a lot these days, you know) 10 years from now? I, for one, vote no. The dealers say that there is not enough supply to satisfy demand even at the current high prices for Hulk 181. They're probably right! However, I do not believe for a moment that Wolvie's popularity and current price trends for Hulk 181 can be linearly extrapolated indefinitely into the future. People's tastes change over time and I have a strong suspicion that the drooling fanboys of tomorrow may not be so willing to shell out months and months worth of mortgage payments for this not-so-rare book in the future. Gene Edited January 6, 2003 by delekkerste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murph0 Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Spiderman used to have just as many titles and appearances, and his popularity (excluding Clone ) has always been fairly high. If people's tastes change over time, it stands to reason they'd do so with Spiderman or FF first since those have been around longer. Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantastic_four Posted January 6, 2003 Share Posted January 6, 2003 Well instead of everybody guessing, let's try some informal price comparisons. Hulk 181 currently guides in Overstreet at $1100 in NM. Here are some comparisons amongst the other keys 30 years after their release: Fantastic Four #1 after ~30 years: $7200 Hulk #1 after ~30 years: $4000 Journey Into Mystery #83 after ~30 years: $2200 Amazing Fantasy #15 after ~30 years: $7000 Amazing Spider-Man #1 after ~30 years: $6800 X-Men #1 after ~30 years: $2150 Daredevil #1 after ~30 years: $1100 Those are prices from the 1993 guide (I didn't have the 1989 to 1991 guides for exact comparisons to the 28-year old Hulk 181. I've got the 1992 guide, but apparently Bob was smoking crack that year; some of the top-of-guide prices are listed for NM97, some for NM99...they're all over the place and weren't the uniform NM94 that he picked back up with in 1993). If we want to adjust these numbers for inflation assuming 3% per year to translate them into 2002 dollars, then we bump each price up by about 0.34. This yields the following: Fantastic Four #1 after ~30 years: $9648 Hulk #1 after ~30 years: $5360 Journey Into Mystery #83 after ~30 years: $2948 Amazing Fantasy #15 after ~30 years: $9380 Amazing Spider-Man #1 after ~30 years: $9112 X-Men #1 after ~30 years: $2881 Daredevil #1 after ~30 years: $1474 It's pretty obvious from this list that Hulk 181 hasn't even approached the prices of the round of Marvel keys from the Silver Age, even if you consider the inflated prices over Overstreet NM that CGC copies garner. So if we go by Overstreet's pricing, Hulk 181 has not increased at the same rate as the other major Marvel keys. Why? I don't get any feeling that he's less popular than the other Marvel heroes; quite the opposite. I don't buy that he's lost steam at all; that's an extremely short-term trend, if it's even a trend at all. I think it's the higher supply of Bronze age books. Hulk 181 is still a sound investment with plenty of room for growth. It will not climb at the same rate as the Silver Age keys, just as the Silver Age keys didn't appreciate at the same rate as the Golden Age keys. Each age appreciates less than the previous one for the same reason--higher available supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisco37 Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 Hulk 181 is still a sound investment with plenty of room for growth. It will not climb at the same rate as the Silver Age keys, just as the Silver Age keys didn't appreciate at the same rate as the Golden Age keys. Each age appreciates less than the previous one for the same reason--higher available supply. Good call FF. I think he's on the money. There are just more out there. This is THE bronze key book. Bigger than GS #1, X-Men #94. Wolverine (while I agree he's over-exposed) is easily Marvel's 2nd most popular and recognizable character. This book has slowed since the summer (remember the 9.8's that got to 10K, and didn't reach reserve?), but this book is an extremely solid investment. If you buy a copy now, and hold onto it for 10yrs., you will make alot of money on the sale Also, special thanks to Brian for commenting on IF #14 so I didn't have to. Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 This is THE bronze key book. Bigger than GS #1, X-Men #94. It is presently. It was not always the case. It may not be the case in the future. I think it would be unwise to assume that the future will look exactly like a linear extrapolation of the present day. That is how most of our brains are hard-wired to perceive the future, but unfortunately, the future rarely allows us to get away with such a simplistic heuristic. For better or worse, the world is much more non-linear than our brains are programmed to perceive it. Wolverine (while I agree he's over-exposed) is easily Marvel's 2nd most popular and recognizable character. This book has slowed since the summer (remember the 9.8's that got to 10K, and didn't reach reserve?) I don't think Hulk 181 has cooled at all. Some of the recent sales in the 9.2, 9.4 and 9.6 grades are hitting all-time highs lately ahead of X-Men 2. I suspect this will last for awhile, but 10 years is a long time for anything to keep appreciating at such high rates. Trees don't grow to the sky, as they say. but this book is an extremely solid investment. If you buy a copy now, and hold onto it for 10yrs., you will make alot of money on the sale If Hulk 181 in 9.4 was, say, a sure $10K book 10 years from now, me, you and everyone else would be buying every copy hand over first at limits much higher than prevailing market prices. It takes two sides to make a market, though. Many people do not believe it is a lay-up to hit $5K and then $10K. Many people recognize that you can buy a decent used car or pay more than a year's rent with that kind of money and that maybe Wolverine's popularity is close to as high as it'll ever get. I doubt that Wolvie will ever have a universal appeal like Spidey. Everybody can relate to the hard-luck Peter Parker. Not everyone can relate to a berzerker savage like Logan. And you have to ask yourself, will the *next* generation of collectors (yeah, I know - *what* next generation???) be willing to fork out huge $$$ for Hulk 181? Or do you think that enough of the current aging collector crowd will be nostalgic and rich enough to bid up prices many hundreds of percentage points in the future? The future's uncertain and the end is always near! Or so my late friend Jimbo Morrison was wont to say. Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisco37 Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 Lots of valid points, Gene. I'm not saying that this book is a guaranteed 10K in 10yrs from now. I do believe though, that in 10 years, this book will appreciate considerably. Next year, the book will be 30 yrs. old. Currently, OS guide is what? $1100? In 10 yrs, I'll bet it's 4-5K. $3000 increase (for a "modern") is pretty good, wouldn't you say? Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbanner Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 The last couple of 9.4's on ebay brought $2,000-2,300, which is slightly higher than they were going for 6 months ago. However, Murph picked up a great looking copy from Heritage for under $1,850 last weekend, so I'd say prices have leveled off on this book, and seriously doubt it will be a 10k book in 10 years, or a 5k book in 5 years for that matter. 9.6's and 9.8's maybe, but I suspect there will be more 9.4's coming to the market than there is demand for them at 2-3k. I mean, rarely a week goes by that there's not a 9.4 (and multiple 9.2's and 9.0's) on ebay. Huge demand, but also a (relatively) huge supply. To compare the price increases for this book to those for early Silver Age is not really even comparing apples to oranges...I think we'll have a good idea of the future of this one by this summer, after the X-men 2 craze hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blowout Posted January 7, 2003 Author Share Posted January 7, 2003 "And you have to ask yourself, will the *next* generation of collectors (yeah, I know - *what* next generation???) be willing to fork out huge $$$ for Hulk 181? Or do you think that enough of the current aging collector crowd will be nostalgic and rich enough to bid up prices many hundreds of percentage points in the future?" I think there is still plenty of room for new collectors with big $$$ to buy hulk #181's in the future. Although we are talking about a first app in the mid 70's here, let's also remember that wolvie's regular series didn't start up until 1988. So collectors from that late 80's era could be hitting their early 30's (likely big spending collector age) in around 5-10 years or so. This allows room for price growth on the book for at least another decade IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammer-migration Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 Murph, The Hulk 181 you purchased is a BEAUTIFUL example. ALL 9.4s SHOULD look like that. Square corners, not much tilt, black line on or near the spine, bright colors, no cover smudges or printing flaws, etc. A GREAT example of an exceptional Hulk 181. More like a 9.6 to 9.8 quality book if not for the two, tiny, flaked, transverse stresses. This copy blows away others I've seen slabbed 9.4 and even 9.6 by virtue of it's tremendous eye appeal, structure, and paper quality as evidenced by the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murph0 Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 Thanks, at least not everyone is negative on the Hulk 181 Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronzejunkie Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 I'm with Meth, uh... I mean... hammer? , that Hulk is just kick and I am quite jealous of you for buying it. Now you got the Hulk#181 bug in me and I have to get me one of them slick high grade copies with the red cover and not the orange. The two I have are about as red as a sunkiss orange and it is driveing me quite mad. Anyone have a red covered hulk#181 for sale in the 9.4 and higher range at a somewhat realistic price? 'best bronzejunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 So collectors from that late 80's era could be hitting their early 30's (likely big spending collector age) in around 5-10 years or so. This allows room for price growth on the book for at least another decade IMHO. This is a valid point, and you could be proven right over time. However, we should keep in mind how unreliable demographic-based predictions can be (weren't they telling us just a few years ago that Baby Boomers investing for retirement would keep the stock market soaring through 2010 or so?) At some point, prices can become unsustainably high even if few people are able to recognize it at the time. Perhaps we are closer to that stage in the evolution of Hulk 181 prices than people think. Maybe, maybe not. I'm *not* saying that I expect prices to soften anytime soon, but I *am* saying that this book is no sure thing to moonshot higher over the next decade like many people expect. There's no question the book *has been* a solid investment to date, but that just tells me that you *should have* ridden the book from $200 to $2000, not that you should expect to turn a $2000 investment in the book today into $20,000 in 15 years. That said, all this Hulk 181 hype has me raring to go out and buy a copy. Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murph0 Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 ROFL...What's up with THIS!! Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supapimp Posted January 7, 2003 Share Posted January 7, 2003 d'oh! homeboy just got ganked! too bad you can't email and tell him that he just got bent over with no lube, or the reach around for that matter. don't believe the hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncan36 Posted January 8, 2003 Share Posted January 8, 2003 I agree with Gene totally. Also with books like Hulk #181 its amazing how dealers kind of form a Borg collective, they sell just enough to satisfy demand and if theres too many selling at a certain point they're happy to hold. I think if the economy continues down the toilet then this sort of Borg mentality will be shattered and people could start dumping relatively common books on the market to save themselves. All it would take is several massive wharehousers to get in severe financial/stockmarket difficulties and flood the market with books and prices on relatively common books like Hulk 181 could be cut in half overnight. Even the high grade books arent safe IMO if people had the foresight to mylar books and wharehoused them in the 30's and 40's by the 70's the number of people doing that probably increased by a factor of 100x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blowout Posted January 8, 2003 Author Share Posted January 8, 2003 "if people had the foresight to mylar books and wharehoused them in the 30's and 40's by the 70's the number of people doing that probably increased by a factor of 100x. " This did not happen in the 30's and 40's, comics only began to be collected seriously around 1964 and actively hoarded in the late 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
