When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[Underground44]

You must have a huge house mintcollector. Maybe I'll see you on Collectors intervention one day

[mintcollector]

You must have a huge house mintcollector. Maybe I'll see you on Collectors intervention one day

 

I dislike that show, but I sometimes worry that is where I am headed-!

 

Most of my items are ironically, kept in storage. This is actually interesting as I don't even live with most of my collections. I collect way too much stuff, but I love it all. My problem is that I like antiques and collectibles; and multiple sub-categories of each.

 

Kind Regards,

 

'mint'

[roastedbagel]

Why do people want to see this book drop off so badly?

 

This is great for the industry and has sparked a lot of interest. Anything that is good for comics is good in my opinion! (thumbs u

 

I hope the bubble keeps on bursting

 

I don't know if collectors in general want to see the books drop in price. I think a lot of collectors suspect, believe it likely or even know in their hearts that the books are eventually going to drop in price. And so some, who care, speculate on when that day might be.

 

I, personally, would not buy the books - particularly early and variant issues - at today's prices and think in terms of holding it for the long term (think a decade). Now is the time to buy and sell.

 

The early Valiant's all had great stories, excellent art and low print runs. It was smart to buy and sell while they were hot - and buy to keep once they cooled down.

 

Except none of the early Valiants had a wildly successful show brand with no end in sight and millions of fans around the world.

 

Just sayin'

Smurfs

Jeremiah

Tank Girl

Sin City

Scott Pilgrim

Diary Of A Wimpy Kid

Road To Perdition

From Hell

 

Aside from Smurfs, most of those do NOT have as much brand awareness than The Walking Dead.

 

When I walk into a Target or a ToysRUs, I don't see huge displays or end caps with numerous merchandise of those. If you asked 10 random people if they've heard of those and/or are actively watching them, you'll probably get a "no".

 

I don't see entire comic conventions devote an entire experience around those, or Universal's Halloween Horror Nights (arguably the most famous Halloween experience in the US) use them as the main theme for the year.

 

None of those are reaching the homes of people in the same magnitude that TWD is. Its just not happening.

 

Now all of this isn't to say that yes, this will eventually pop in due time, but to compare Valiant's state in the mid 90s to the state that TWD is in right now is an incorrect comparison.

[mintcollector]

I agree. As much as I think The Walking Dead is way overvalued; comparing it to early Valiants is not a valid comparison for reasons already stated.

 

'mint'

 

[Mephisto]

Walking Dead comics and OA will see a greater bubble burst than early Silver Age Marvel White Mountain issues.

[dupont2005]

Why do people want to see this book drop off so badly?

 

This is great for the industry and has sparked a lot of interest. Anything that is good for comics is good in my opinion! (thumbs u

 

I hope the bubble keeps on bursting

 

I don't know if collectors in general want to see the books drop in price. I think a lot of collectors suspect, believe it likely or even know in their hearts that the books are eventually going to drop in price. And so some, who care, speculate on when that day might be.

 

I, personally, would not buy the books - particularly early and variant issues - at today's prices and think in terms of holding it for the long term (think a decade). Now is the time to buy and sell.

 

The early Valiant's all had great stories, excellent art and low print runs. It was smart to buy and sell while they were hot - and buy to keep once they cooled down.

 

Except none of the early Valiants had a wildly successful show brand with no end in sight and millions of fans around the world.

 

Just sayin'

Smurfs

Jeremiah

Tank Girl

Sin City

Scott Pilgrim

Diary Of A Wimpy Kid

Road To Perdition

From Hell

 

Aside from Smurfs, most of those do NOT have as much brand awareness than The Walking Dead.

 

When I walk into a Target or a ToysRUs, I don't see huge displays or end caps with numerous merchandise of those. If you asked 10 random people if they've heard of those and/or are actively watching them, you'll probably get a "no".

 

I don't see entire comic conventions devote an entire experience around those, or Universal's Halloween Horror Nights (arguably the most famous Halloween experience in the US) use them as the main theme for the year.

 

None of those are reaching the homes of people in the same magnitude that TWD is. Its just not happening.

 

Now all of this isn't to say that yes, this will eventually pop in due time, but to compare Valiant's state in the mid 90s to the state that TWD is in right now is an incorrect comparison.

Diary Of A Wimpy Kid and Scott Pilgrim are HUGE. If you ask 30 year old men if they are reading it you may get a no, if you ask ten to fifteen year old boys and girls you're far more likely to get a yes. And do you really think anyone hasn't heard of Sin City at this point? Road To Perdition and From Hell were big movies, tons of people have seen them. They may not know or care that a comic exists about it, but I bet the same can be said for a slew of AMC Walking Dead viewers. The only people paying premiums for Walking Dead #19's are comic collectors. That's it. The franchise may have wider appeal than the local LCS, but high priced graded back issues of the floppy comic do not. That is exactly the situation with Sin City as well. The people bidding up the prices on Walking Dead back issues are comic collectors. Long time comic collectors. Nobody who is a fan of the show ran out to get a Walking Dead #19 because Michonne was about to be introduced in the show. Ask anyone who is a fan of the show and not a member of this board what issue she debuted in and you'll get a blank stare or a laugh. They don't care. Edited September 23, 2012 by dupont2005

[ComicCollectorx19]

Tony More art > Charlie Adlard art and people are complaining about it. Tony put so MUCH detail into every drawing and it appears to me Charlie is more interested in making 70% of the picture black...BRING TONY BACK!!!!!

[roastedbagel]

Diary Of A Wimpy Kid and Scott Pilgrim are HUGE. If you ask 30 year old men if they are reading it you may get a no, if you ask ten to fifteen year old boys and girls you're far more likely to get a yes. And do you really think anyone hasn't heard of Sin City at this point? Road To Perdition and From Hell were big movies, tons of people have seen them. They may not know or care that a comic exists about it, but I bet the same can be said for a slew of AMC Walking Dead viewers. The only people paying premiums for Walking Dead #19's are comic collectors. That's it. The franchise may have wider appeal than the local LCS, but high priced graded back issues of the floppy comic do not. That is exactly the situation with Sin City as well. The people bidding up the prices on Walking Dead back issues are comic collectors. Long time comic collectors. Nobody who is a fan of the show ran out to get a Walking Dead #19 because Michonne was about to be introduced in the show. Ask anyone who is a fan of the show and not a member of this board what issue she debuted in and you'll get a blank stare or a laugh. They don't care.

 

But what you're missing is the number of people that are watching the show and now wanting to buy the comics (such as myself). Its not a huge number, but more than a lot of people confined to these boards realize.

 

I'll use Reddit as one example, whether you know of the site or not, there is a WD "sub-reddit" wherein at least once a week someone posts "guys the show isn't enough, how/where can I buy the comics".

 

Now again, not everyone is going to go balls to the wall and buy every back issue, but there are some.

 

So its not just collectors and speculators buying the #19s, its also a new wave of people that are just now starting to buy the comics because of the show.

 

I can vouch for myself and two other friends/boardies this happen to, as well as one guy from work. That's just me. Think about the millions of other people out there where this could/is happening.

 

WD #100 set comic book records. People who weren't collecting comics 3 months ago are now. If you asked 4 people 6 months ago what issue does Michonne first appear in, we couldn't answer that, now we can.

 

I don't think any of the books you listed has done that in the way WD has. There's more of us 4 than you think.

[dupont2005]

I think it is just collectors and speculators buying high priced back issues, particularly slabbed ones. There's digital comics, tpb's, hardcovers, compendiums. Those are what the casual readers are buying. The pool of comic collectors isn't the only thing that's small, the pool of CGC comic collectors is even smaller, as is the pool of internet savvy comic buyers. A LOT of the casual people who may be interested in trying the series out (which is a small pool of people) will simply buy it on their smartphone's app store or at the local bookstore. The people buying and selling Walking Dead #1's for higher and higher prices are the same people it's always been. Same as just about every hot comic out there, modern or not. When a movie for the next hot comic is announced, long before anyone has seen the movie, long before anyone who may see the movie is even introduced to the characters, comic geeks start bidding up and hoarding the related comics because they are convinced this time is unlike any other, and this time the general population of regular people are going to need a slabbed 9.8 of so and so number whatever because it has the first appearance of a supporting character. It just is never the case. You are a comic collector, and you were before Walking Dead had a show. Just because you are now collecting a new series does not mean people who do not have slabs and longboxes in their houses are all the sudden going to be bidding for this stuff on eBay. They aren't.

[Beige]

As I've stated before - why are those of you that don't like The Walking Dead interested?

We like it,we collect it.

If it bombs,we lose.

I will be keeping my 9.8 run regardless of the value.To me,it is simply the best comic I have ever read. The show is a bonus.

As for new readers /collectors, again as I've said before,many people ARE buying the comics on the back of the show.

Don't forget - there are at least another 5 years worth of awesome material left to be screned before Kirkman has to write another issue.

If you don't like it - fine.

But every day there is someone wishing this comic to take a bath.

Why?

[dupont2005]

I'm not wishing for it to, and I like it too. I'm just stating the fact that fans of the show are not driving up the prices of these slabs. Comic collectors are. And even then, a small pool of comic collectors. I collect comics, I like Walking Dead, and I don't own an issue before 96. I dumped them all because I believe the price is inflated right now, and I buy them to read, so the compendiums are fine with me. If you are buying them for your own enjoyment then the value and popularity of them shouldn't matter. Most of my favorite comics are worthless and I it doesn't bother me a bit.

[Tony S]

I looked for someone to quote on this post but I have too many issues to (quickly) cover.

 

I've read no one's post here that seems to be hoping for the day WD back issues crash. What I've read is people post that WD back issues are going to crash and some speculation when.

 

My reference to early Valiants wasn't to suggest the subject matter was the same. My reference is there was a belief amoungst many collectors for a couple of years in the early 90's that pre unity Valiants would just continue to go up in value forever. Because Valiant would just keep attracting new readers that would become collectors and seek out those back issues. That is fundementally why people are sayinjg WD will defy the odds and be eternally valuable.

 

Keep in mind that in 1992-1993 there was no CGC. Harbinger 1 & 4, Solar 10, Magnus 12. These books sold for $150-$200 in raw NM at their highs. Had there been a CGC to certify ultra high grade (9.8) these books mentioned would have easily been going for over a grand too.

 

People are going to eventually get tired of a show about zombies. More people are eventually going to want to sell these books to finance other things than there will be people that want to buy them. At least at the prices we speak of.

 

While the prices are still moving up, now is the time to sell. Or buy to resell. When the prices drop - and drop they will - then will be the time to buy to keep.

 

[MostAwesomeComics]

Walking Dead will probably be known as the quintessential zombie show. Hell, people who don't even like zombie stuff love Walking Dead. Tales from the Crypt comics are still valuable aren't they? That show stopped airing like 20 years ago and the comic is a lot older then that.

 

I honestly have to explain to almost everyone I know who watches the show that the Walking Dead is a comic and started out that way. Do they run out and buy CGC grade 9.8's of all the keys? No but they definitely think my copy of number one is flash. And so do I. That'll never change.

 

I bet you'd be seriously astounded by how many people returned to comic collecting or just plain started the hobby because of this show. The more people in the hobby, the higher the demand for comics. The higher the demand...

 

So praise Walking Dead and any other book that comes along and sparks the interests of so many. It's not like the book isn't awesome!

 

You want to know my prediction on when the bubble will burst? The apocalypse. If it ever happens no one is going to care about comics or coins or cards they're only going to care about food, ammo and shelter. And I learned that from reading the Walking Dead. So my advice would be to trade in all of your comics for food and guns now before the bubble does burst and all you can get for them is a can of spaghetti-O's and a box of .22 rounds.

[mintcollector]

Walking Dead will probably be known as the quintessential zombie show. Hell, people who don't even like zombie stuff love Walking Dead. Tales from the Crypt comics are still valuable aren't they? That show stopped airing like 20 years ago and the comic is a lot older then that.

 

I honestly have to explain to almost everyone I know who watches the show that the Walking Dead is a comic and started out that way. Do they run out and buy CGC grade 9.8's of all the keys? No but they definitely think my copy of number one is flash. And so do I. That'll never change.

 

I bet you'd be seriously astounded by how many people returned to comic collecting or just plain started the hobby because of this show. The more people in the hobby, the higher the demand for comics. The higher the demand...

 

So praise Walking Dead and any other book that comes along and sparks the interests of so many. It's not like the book isn't awesome!

 

You want to know my prediction on when the bubble will burst? The apocalypse. If it ever happens no one is going to care about comics or coins or cards they're only going to care about food, ammo and shelter. And I learned that from reading the Walking Dead. So my advice would be to trade in all of your comics for food and guns now before the bubble does burst and all you can get for them is a can of spaghetti-O's and a box of .22 rounds.

 

 

I'll assume part of your statement is 'tongue and cheek' so I won't bother to comment on that. Besides, all the talk of an apocalypse is over done. Not only were the Mayans wrong, but so were most extreme political groups and religionists. That being said, I cannot discuss that on this forum. It is funny to comment on though.

 

The problem with a 'speculative bubble' is that generally those operating and collectively in agreement as to what is happening in the 'bubble' cannot be convinced otherwise (just read my signature line and follow up on the article for proof).

 

I don't think anyone here is suggesting that a Walking Dead #1 in CGC 9.8 will ever be 'worthless.' I most certainly am not. What we are saying is that right now the issue (and related 'key' issues) have seen explosive growth due to the popularity of the television show. Therefore, it is probably not a good time to be buying this issue regardless of what it does SHORT TERM. I am more worried about long term results.

 

When I buy an item for INVESTMENT and not for 'flipping', I think in terms of five years or more; to decades, but definately not in single years (that is flipping; NOT investing). Heck, on some items I think in terms of centuries. It is those people who think in terms of years that worry me the most. Unless of course they are flippimng for profit.

 

Right now is not a good time to be buying Iron Man #55 either, but people are doing it. Part of collecting is understanding when to best buy something. Even if it is not for investment, do you really want to overpay for something? I have said this before in another thread, looking at the differences between how collectors of most pop culture items collect and buy items and comparing these individuals to that of even coin collectors or collectors of antiques is astounding. Some poeple are driven by the 'got to have it now' motivational factor. I never could understand this. Why not wait until the price is much more stable to buy something and save some cash in the interim? Now, if you want to have the item and do not care about how much it costs, then by all means buy it. If you also truly believe that the item will still be going strong say two to five years or more after the show is canceled, then buy it. I would not be buying this item right now regardless of any perceived short term gains. This is just my opinion.

 

In conclusion, any one should be able to conclude that this book, even while being a true 'key' modern comic book; is extremely speculative right now. If you cannot, well then there really is nothing else I can say. When I look and analyze items for the long term, one thing I look for is growth over the LONG term; not over the short term. Look how fast Walking Dead #1 shot up in value. This is very scary in my opinion and should send off warning bells to those keeping this issue for decades or more.

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'

[The-Collector]

Can anyone else see some weakness in the market?

[Junkdrawer]

Can anyone else see some weakness in the market?

Lots of areas in the comic book market are showing slumpy sales. Also factor in that the book may have risen way too fast and a little too much heading into this season. The outlook to me looks strong. Heck even AF15 has stopped its stampeed. Economy, Holidays, too many auctions and not enough money to over pay for everything. Hard to call it a bubble burst. A great time to be a buyer of comics as I look out my window.

[Cyclops]

Is it possible the Issue #100 hoopla soured the market a bit? Talk about overkill...

 

Watches, 18 or 19 covers, 3 printings.....just for one issue. I got sick of hearing about it.

 

The 9.9 sale might debunk that theory though....

 

 

[MostAwesomeComics]

A blue label 9.8 (white warning) just sold for $1825.00 on eBay on Dec 2nd.

[The-Collector]

A single instance doesn't make a trend.

 

A blue label 9.8 (white warning) just sold for $1825.00 on eBay on Dec 2nd.

[MediumLover]

 

What I think,

 

WD #1 is/will be fine.(not going down)

 

WD $19, #27, #48 have seen some market correction

 

Non keys, way down, selling for what they should.

 

Another frenzy like after season two is possible, but not probable.

 

If you are looking to sell/flip CGC SS books are the way to go,

also non verified signed books do much better than their unsigned counterparts.