When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[Dr. Balls]

While holding multiples of WD #1 might be risky long term. I fully intend on hanging on to my 2 copies long term and seeing what happens. If they reach stupid prices like 5 grand or more I would have to think about moving them. Even after the show goes away I fully expect a movie.That will capatilize on the popularity..The Genre is popular as ever and Walking Dead name sort of has become the kleenex of Zombies

 

You think NBC has not noticed what is going on? Sixth Gun pilot ring a bell

 

 

The speculation on Sixth Gun is even worse.

 

NBC ordered a pilot? Awesome. It's made it farther than three dozen other comic series that got option deals at the same time.

 

However, spending $1200+ on a Sixth Gun #1 has a real possibility of leaving your fingers burned to the nubs.

 

While the pilot pick-up is great news, it doesn't necessarily mean that we'll all be watching The Sixth Gun every week come this time next year; NBC has ordered seven drama pilots so far this year (and three comedies), far more than it necessarily has time slots for. It remains to be seen whether or not the pilot will eventually make the cut,

 

Then if it makes it, it has to be popular, popular enough to stay on TV.

 

It's a long way to go and when almost all the value is placed on the end result of a smash successful TV show the odds are only slightly worse to be struck by lightning.

 

 

I remember the Generation X pilot...

 

My guess is that in the next year or so, people are going to see that "optioned" is just an industry-standard word for "maybe".

[RedGiant]

While holding multiples of WD #1 might be risky long term. I fully intend on hanging on to my 2 copies long term and seeing what happens. If they reach stupid prices like 5 grand or more I would have to think about moving them. Even after the show goes away I fully expect a movie.That will capatilize on the popularity..The Genre is popular as ever and Walking Dead name sort of has become the kleenex of Zombies

 

You think NBC has not noticed what is going on? Sixth Gun pilot ring a bell

 

 

The speculation on Sixth Gun is even worse.

 

NBC ordered a pilot? Awesome. It's made it farther than three dozen other comic series that got option deals at the same time.

 

However, spending $1200+ on a Sixth Gun #1 has a real possibility of leaving your fingers burned to the nubs.

 

While the pilot pick-up is great news, it doesn't necessarily mean that we'll all be watching The Sixth Gun every week come this time next year; NBC has ordered seven drama pilots so far this year (and three comedies), far more than it necessarily has time slots for. It remains to be seen whether or not the pilot will eventually make the cut,

 

Then if it makes it, it has to be popular, popular enough to stay on TV.

 

It's a long way to go and when almost all the value is placed on the end result of a smash successful TV show the odds are only slightly worse to be struck by lightning.

 

Agreed. While I can somewhat understand the outrageous prices on WD issues, some of the prices on other books are just plain dumb. You buy a PP, RR, and 6th Gun for $3k because they have "shows coming out" and come back in a decade and tell me how that "investment" worked out for you.

Edited April 23, 2013 by diestler

[ChrisInBaltimore]

There are a finite amount of #1's out there, regardless of how many are graded 9.8. The show's only built more and more fever for potential fans. I don't think we need a 40+ page thread to realize that yes, while there will be a drop off after the show is over, if you think this book will ever be had for south of $1,500, you're crazy. It's the key modern book to have. Period.

 

Now-- when can we start talking about the OA bubble? That's the one I'm eager to see pop so i can snatch up some more covers!

 

I'm crazy then. It isn't a matter of if on sub-$1,500 #1 prices, but how fast we get there.

 

We play in a market where people pay $400 for Nowhere Men #1 variants, when the book isn't even on it's 4th issue. I think TWD is an easy $1,500 for the long haul. Adjusting for inflation puts that higher.

 

 

Which assumes that the NowherePanzerSagaBedlamSexRevival will retain 1% of this value in the long term.

 

We've seen this before. We shall see it again. You could name a dozen initially hot series from the last decade that faded into obscurity and might not even be worth the cost of slabbing now. Desirability ebbs and flows and the Walking Dead will continue to be desirable to the masses as long as the masses are told it's desirable. By "told" I mean marketed to. When the TV series ends, when the series ends, when the licensing ends you will be hard pressed to find the heat necessary to fuel long term growth, desire, and demand.

 

Walking Dead will retain some value, that is for sure, but value to keep pace with inflation, or exceed inflation? Dubious.

 

See your logic with looking at the history of certain books is great but you are ignoring a few HUGE factors with the success of WD.

 

1) The TV show has been a huge success. I'd agree with people that I only see it remaining solid for another season, but it still has created a ton of buzz.

 

2) The other obscure books that demanded top dollar back in the 90s didn't run for 100+ issues. And while people think the book has gotten boring, there is still a loyal following. I still enjoy the story. It goes to the top of my moderns each month when I pick it up. Is it as good as the first 50 or so issues? No- but it is still pretty solid in comparison with the rest of the drek coming out.

 

And I think comparing this book to Saga, Nowhere Men, Peter whats his face, and any of the like is flawed. Those are books still early in their runs. When they've been running for a 100 issues, then we can have that discussion. Until then it is to early to say.

 

I'll never understand why people want to see WD fail so badly. The book has breather air into an industry that was slowly losing steam.

[RedGiant]

I'll never understand why people want to see WD fail so badly. The book has breather air into an industry that was slowly losing steam.

I don't want to see WD fail - I love that is has brought air into the industry. I'm only arguing that long term, I don't believe the odds are in favor of this book being $2,500 a decade from now. Doesn't mean it won't be, it's just a very risky bet in my opinion.

[comix4fun]

There are a finite amount of #1's out there, regardless of how many are graded 9.8. The show's only built more and more fever for potential fans. I don't think we need a 40+ page thread to realize that yes, while there will be a drop off after the show is over, if you think this book will ever be had for south of $1,500, you're crazy. It's the key modern book to have. Period.

 

Now-- when can we start talking about the OA bubble? That's the one I'm eager to see pop so i can snatch up some more covers!

 

I'm crazy then. It isn't a matter of if on sub-$1,500 #1 prices, but how fast we get there.

 

We play in a market where people pay $400 for Nowhere Men #1 variants, when the book isn't even on it's 4th issue. I think TWD is an easy $1,500 for the long haul. Adjusting for inflation puts that higher.

 

 

Which assumes that the NowherePanzerSagaBedlamSexRevival will retain 1% of this value in the long term.

 

We've seen this before. We shall see it again. You could name a dozen initially hot series from the last decade that faded into obscurity and might not even be worth the cost of slabbing now. Desirability ebbs and flows and the Walking Dead will continue to be desirable to the masses as long as the masses are told it's desirable. By "told" I mean marketed to. When the TV series ends, when the series ends, when the licensing ends you will be hard pressed to find the heat necessary to fuel long term growth, desire, and demand.

 

Walking Dead will retain some value, that is for sure, but value to keep pace with inflation, or exceed inflation? Dubious.

 

See your logic with looking at the history of certain books is great but you are ignoring a few HUGE factors with the success of WD.

 

1) The TV show has been a huge success. I'd agree with people that I only see it remaining solid for another season, but it still has created a ton of buzz.

 

2) The other obscure books that demanded top dollar back in the 90s didn't run for 100+ issues. And while people think the book has gotten boring, there is still a loyal following. I still enjoy the story. It goes to the top of my moderns each month when I pick it up. Is it as good as the first 50 or so issues? No- but it is still pretty solid in comparison with the rest of the drek coming out.

 

And I think comparing this book to Saga, Nowhere Men, Peter whats his face, and any of the like is flawed. Those are books still early in their runs. When they've been running for a 100 issues, then we can have that discussion. Until then it is to early to say.

 

I'll never understand why people want to see WD fail so badly. The book has breather air into an industry that was slowly losing steam.

 

 

I don't want WD to fail. I want it to succeed. Nothing will make it fail faster than a boom/bust that burns people and leaves them pissed off. They won't know to be pissed at themselves so they'll stop buying the book because of the bad taste in their mouth THEN the series will fail.

 

It took WD #1 Three YEARS to become a $100 book consistently. It took another three years for it to be a $500 book. Then it ran up to $1000 in a year, then $1500 the next and now $2000. The growth of the last year or two should be troubling if you've ever seen what happens when something spikes that fast in the past.

 

Slow, steady growth is sustainable.

 

Growth and decline tend to follow the same arc...slow and steady up is usually slow and steady down. Spikes beget spikes in the opposite direction.

 

I think you might be mistaking someone who wants something to be successful long term and worrying about the impact of speculation (having witnessed this in action, in comics, more than once) and how a book can be destroyed when the run up is too fast too soon and based on hype, promises, and greed instead of actual fans.

 

The brighter something burns the faster it burns out. I don't want that.

[mysterio]

It's not a matter of wanting it to fail. Taking the other side if the argument is often seen that way. I enjoy the book, but I don't think the #1 is a $1000 book in 10 years. There is a lot of arguing that WD is somehow different than every other comic that has gone up and then down, and it is possible that this book is the chosen one, but history is not on your side.

 

Edit: the post above mine makes the point I have been shooting for much more eloquently.

Edited April 23, 2013 by mysterio

[comicsnyc22]

How the hell is Sixth Gun a $1,200 book?

[JAM_NYC]

TMNT also has the added benefit of being a franchise that can be repackaged over and over to new generations of kids. I agree that once the tv show is done, the hoopla will die down. But even when Walking Dead is "out of sight, out of mind", I would imagine that the impact it's had on the comic book community, and pop culture in general, would mean that certain key issues would always be in demand.

 

What has its impact on pop culture been? It is a good story, and it was adapted into a good tv show, but at its heart it is about zombies in the same way umpteen other books/movies and even comics have been about zombies. The only difference is that WD looks at the long term story of survivors, but aside from that how has it changed a genre? I like WD, don't get me wrong, but I can't see how it is still going to be relevant enough in 10 years to command even $500 for #1 when the show/comic series is done and folks have moved on.

 

I think it's impact on pop culture stems from its mass appeal. Sure, there have been plenty of zombie movies, stories, etc. But for some reason, this one seems to resonate with people. I can't tell you how many times I've overheard soccer moms having conversations about the show, and I'm willing to bet they don't read comics, or even know the show is based on one. Other than the original Night of the Living Dead, and maybe Dawn of the Dead, I can't think of any zombie-related media that achieved anything higher than cult status. As I type this, somewhere in the world, someone's grandfather is wearing a Daryl Dixon t-shirt! And I think that's pretty cool!

As for changing the genre, I don't think it did. The only thing that sets it apart is exactly what you said, it takes a long term look at people surviving a zombie apocalypse. Let's face it, there's only three things you can do with a rotting, shambling corpse; kill it, be eaten by it, or have sex with it. And only 2 of those things make for good tv (nobody likes to be eaten)

[comix4fun]

How the hell is Sixth Gun a $1,200 book?

 

 

Don't know.

 

In the last month or so I saw it leap from $800 to as much as $1200...with double signed copies leading the way.

[ChrisInBaltimore]

See your logic with looking at the history of certain books is great but you are ignoring a few HUGE factors with the success of WD.

 

1) The TV show has been a huge success. I'd agree with people that I only see it remaining solid for another season, but it still has created a ton of buzz.

 

2) The other obscure books that demanded top dollar back in the 90s didn't run for 100+ issues. And while people think the book has gotten boring, there is still a loyal following. I still enjoy the story. It goes to the top of my moderns each month when I pick it up. Is it as good as the first 50 or so issues? No- but it is still pretty solid in comparison with the rest of the drek coming out.

 

And I think comparing this book to Saga, Nowhere Men, Peter whats his face, and any of the like is flawed. Those are books still early in their runs. When they've been running for a 100 issues, then we can have that discussion. Until then it is to early to say.

 

I'll never understand why people want to see WD fail so badly. The book has breather air into an industry that was slowly losing steam.

 

 

I don't want WD to fail. I want it to succeed. Nothing will make it fail faster than a boom/bust that burns people and leaves them pissed off. They won't know to be pissed at themselves so they'll stop buying the book because of the bad taste in their mouth THEN the series will fail.

 

It took WD #1 Three YEARS to become a $100 book consistently. It took another three years for it to be a $500 book. Then it ran up to $1000 in a year, then $1500 the next and now $2000. The growth of the last year or two should be troubling if you've ever seen what happens when something spikes that fast in the past.

 

Slow, steady growth is sustainable.

 

Growth and decline tend to follow the same arc...slow and steady up is usually slow and steady down. Spikes beget spikes in the opposite direction.

 

I think you might be mistaking someone who wants something to be successful long term and worrying about the impact of speculation (having witnessed this in action, in comics, more than once) and how a book can be destroyed when the run up is too fast too soon and based on hype, promises, and greed instead of actual fans.

 

The brighter something burns the faster it burns out. I don't want that.

 

This is a good point and your comment to finish it really capped this off.

 

I don't think it is going to hold at 2000 either, but I just can't see it dropping out that drastically. The print run was low enough that the demand is going to remain high. And while history does repeat itself, every once in a while something comes along that surprises us.

 

The book seems like the new Hulk 181. In 10 years or so we will still be talking about it.

[mysterio]

A low print run doesn't always mean high demand. There could only be 10 copies out there, but if only 9 people want one prices will be soft. When there are no longer ten people in line for every copy of #1 that comes to market the demand will be satisfied more easily and prices go down. This can happen gradually as supply/demand find an equilibrium over time, or it can happen quickly as a bubble bursts and people try to liquidate ASAP to grasp at some tiny shred of a former value.

[seanfingh]

How the hell is Sixth Gun a $1,200 book?

 

Because money.

[accessndx]

I simply can't stop watching Chris. S.'s signature .gif

I'd give 3 Sixth Gun #1 9.8s to dip my wick in that specimen.

[Junkdrawer]

Sunday night @ 9pm is a special time of the week. Family is all in, everyone is fed and comfortable, and we all dread Monday morning. Until whatever TV show can steal me away from the WD when it's on, it is on it's track for success. The talking dead follow up with cast members and celebs recapping the show is brilliant and original. I think there is no rush to dump your cgc 9.8 #1. The book is blue chip.

[musicmeta]

I can't imagine WD#1 will be the modern equivalent of Hulk 181.

 

I do think it will have pretty strong value when the TV show and hype are over with.

$2500+ value??...That I'm not so sure about but then again, with all the graded copies of Hulk 181 floating around, I never thought a 9.4 copy would still be selling way north of $2000+.

[ChrisInBaltimore]

Sunday night @ 9pm is a special time of the week. Family is all in, everyone is fed and comfortable, and we all dread Monday morning. Until whatever TV show can steal me away from the WD when it's on, it is on it's track for success. The talking dead follow up with cast members and celebs recapping the show is brilliant and original. I think there is no rush to dump your cgc 9.8 #1. The book is blue chip.

 

Have you watched Game of Thrones? It might not be family appropriate though...

 

And it really bothers me that HBO won't let me buy the episodes. I don't have cable! Last year I did for hockey playoffs, but I won't be getting it this year.

[Junkdrawer]

I pay 100 mo for comcast and get @#%?¿ channels.

[mysterio]

I pay 100 mo for comcast and get @#%?¿ channels.

 

And if it is like my cable package like 7 of those channels are worth watching.

[ChrisInBaltimore]

I pay 100 mo for comcast and get @#%?¿ channels.

 

And if it is like my cable package like 7 of those channels is worth watching.

 

And this is why I don't pay for cable. I pay for Netflix, NHL Gamecenter Live, and I buy a few shows off the XBox video like Walking Dead and Mad Men. Everything else you can stream on the internet for free. I can even stream NBC, CBS, FOX, and ABC shows on my XBox through the Xfinity app since I pay for only internet through them.

 

HBO needs to get with the times and make their content available online. I'd gladly pay for GOT.

[sufunk]

When i 1st signed up here, i was THIS close to buying a 9.8 WD1 for $500. I'm not a modern guy but im a HUGE zombie fan so i really wanted it. I ended up not buying it because i thought for the 1st time ever in my comics career, i wasn't going to get caught up in the hype and WAY overpay for some hot issue whose value would plummet.

 

great job sufunk!