When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[James J]

I've missed you.

 

Don't you find it weird that when speculators are challenged on here, that they all revert to a childish "okay, then I'll pay cover price for all your copies"?

 

Yeah we should revert to calling them tools......its the adult thing to do

 

Actually, it's the grammatically correct thing to do. (thumbs u

 

[comicsnyc22]

This is ridiculous; top points A-D, E & F are your opinion and have no factual basis of support.

 

You are making things up and passing them off as fact.

 

Not sure why, but again, I’ll post because it’s Sunday and the Steelers aren't playing.

 

I’ll start with as much support as I can give. As I stated, I love TWD and think it’s coming down, but I also think it’s certifiable if you think it’s just some book that’s a fad and we’ll never think of it again 10 years from now.

 

A: One of the most feverent and wide fan bases of any current franchise or entertainment entity around.

So. How do you quantify feverence? NO IDEA. But a good place I’d start is sales…

 

Best Sellers - The New York Times: January 2014: http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/paperback-graphic-books/list.html?category=paperback-graphic-books&pagewanted=print

 

Hollywood reporter: 'The Walking Dead' Graphic Novels Dominate The New York Times Bestseller List: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/walking-dead-robert-kirkman-graphic-novel-bestseller-275974

 

Comic Book Resources: "THE WALKING DEAD" DOMINATES DIAMOND COMICS' 2012 TOP 500 LISTS: http://www.comicbookresources.com/?page=article&id=43051

 

Bleeding Cool : Walking Dead #115 Sells 350,000 – The Best Selling Comic Of The 2013 So Far: http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/10/10/walking-dead-115-sells-350000-the-best-selling-comic-of-the-2013-so-far/

 

 

Then the franchises (video games, experiential, comic, TV, etc), which to me illustrate that it isn’t just a bunch of fanboys and nerds in comic book shops pushing those numbers. Mass appeal can’t be measured in comics, so I think the next two are even bigger indicators:

 

Philadelphia Mag: To Do: The Walking Dead Escape at the Wells Fargo Center: http://www.phillymag.com/be-well-philly/2013/03/26/do-walking-dead-escape-april-21st/

 

Spike VGA 2012 winners: Walking Dead takes Game of the Year: http://www.phillymag.com/be-well-philly/2013/03/26/do-walking-dead-escape-april-21st/

 

Finally, the TV show. You get it, so I’m not going to list it, but dude—the show throughout this year was bigger at times ratings-wise than the NFL. That is serious. You could argue that if TWD was on network TV, its ad revenues could demand some of the highest on TV, which in terms of real world feverence, trumps any of the I just bored you with above *Also, if TWD was on network TV, it would probably suck.

 

 

Finally, anecdotally: and I’m sure you won’t like this because I can’t measure this, but whatever…

 

I’ve been to the past seven San Diego and New York Comic Cons for work—I work in the entertainment industry (not comics). I’ve also personally been to cons all over the country and abroad. It is absolutely amazing to me how absolutely ape sh*t people go for TWD. It’s certainly been propped up because of the show, but put it this way, the amount of zombies and Rick Grimes I see stands right there with the amount of caped super heroes.

 

 

B: It's arguably the most important and influential comic of the last 20 years, and if you think that's hyperbole, I don't think you're giving it the credit it deserves.

Not trying to pass this off as gospel (key word arguably), but do you legitimately think there’s another comic book franchise that has seen the amount of success and domestic/global appeal in the last 20+ years? Marvel & DC have long been established. When we look at this era, what are collectors going to point out first? Like seriously, chime in? I get that it’s opinion, but throw out some names of comics you think matter more. If we were running a comic fantasy football league, and you had the No. 1 pick, what are you choosing? Preacher? Bone? Spawn? Does Spawn/Preacher book out baseball stadiums and hockey arenas where thousands of fans dress like characters from the book and chase you around? If so, sign me up.

 

Is it opinion? Yes. That said, you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think that TWD is popular enough, and has the momentum to be the defining book of this era, whatever we call it.

 

C: It's been around for 10 years, and regardless of where it is now, I think most would consider 1-48 to be a damn good story.

Again, opinion, but two parts:

 

How many other indie comics have hit more than 100 issues? Ten years to me is a sign of longevity, when most comics can’t even stay on a monthly schedule, let alone maintain popularity for that long. Hellboy’s been around forever and has what, like 50 issues?

 

Not trying to pass it off as fact, but without those first few arcs and the prison finale, the show, the video games and everything else we’re debating don’t even exist, and Robert Kirkman is still trying to push Battle Pope onto us.

 

How many people have you ever heard say “You don’t read TWD?? DUDE, you should totally skip the prison arc and start around issue 50.”

 

D: It has one of the most notable and respected writers/creators in comics, and Kirkman pretty much churns out properties for various mediums on an annual basis.

You’re just messing with me at this point. Kirkman is at a point in his career where even the stuff he haphazardly attaches his name to gets greenlit for a scripting. He’s penning two comics a month that are above 100 issues. His resume is deep. If you want to debate it, fine, but he's in a different echelon of comic creators now:

 

Thief of Thieves: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/walking-dead-robert-kirkman-thief-of-thieves-amc-development-310260

 

Outcast: http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/11/11/robert-kirkmans-outcast-to-be-a-new-tv-show-from-cinemax/

 

The Walking Dead: duh

 

E: The comic was popular before the show.

This will be my only smart answer. It was clearly popular enough to be greenlit (duh doy).

 

But seriously, the book was a good seller in TBP and one of Image’s top sellers pre-2010.

 

I get buying shows for the rights to box out competitors, but come on, man. Do you think a studio would move forward with a show unless it felt it was comfortable enough to sustain viewers?

 

F: The buzz has created actual demand and high prices for it’s original art, which for a modern book seems to be tricky (i.e., there’s enough of a demand that forces fans at times to pay stupid prices for it [::raises hand::]. What I'm trying to say is that even beyond the TV show, it's got more going for it than the floppies/trades.

 

Go ask Mark at Splashpage how much he was selling pages for pre 2010 compared to now. Mediocre splashes now sell for higher than covers did, even three years ago. It’s borderline delusional. There are times when I see what I can buy from other comics that I like, and I have to step away from the ledge because the market for TWD art is stupid crazy, and very volatile, but I trust it more than the floppies. I could buy a decent Neal Adams, Byrne or Jim Lee page for what some of Adlard's top stuff goes for (and that's with more than 100 pages worth of supply!). My Tony moore sketch commissions (let alone the page from N0. 1) are probably worth more than most modern artists published pages, even with the personalization.

 

MTV even offered up Walking Dead OA as a gift during the holidays:

 

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1718351/walking-dead-holiday-gift-guide.jhtml

 

ANYWAY. This is stupid and I'm upset at myself for writing all of this, but I sort of had to. I feel like such a freaking loser for writing this much-- and I even think TWD ship has some leaks. That said, it's not the Titanic.

[comicsnyc22]

I'd have to be brain-dead to pay current prices for this flash-in-the-pan.

 

That's my thoughts on this as well. I sold my black label #1 9.8 last year and bought a low grade Action #10 with the money, smartest comic move I ever made.

 

Good move. Beautiful comic.

[BarryAllen]

This is ridiculous; top points A-D, E & F are your opinion and have no factual basis of support.

 

You are making things up and passing them off as fact.

 

Not sure why, but again, I’ll post because it’s Sunday and the Steelers aren't playing.

 

I’ll start with as much support as I can give. As I stated, I love TWD and think it’s coming down, but I also think it’s certifiable if you think it’s just some book that’s a fad and we’ll never think of it again 10 years from now.

 

A: One of the most feverent and wide fan bases of any current franchise or entertainment entity around.

So. How do you quantify feverence? NO IDEA. But a good place I’d start is sales…

 

Best Sellers - The New York Times: January 2014: http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/paperback-graphic-books/list.html?category=paperback-graphic-books&pagewanted=print

 

Hollywood reporter: 'The Walking Dead' Graphic Novels Dominate The New York Times Bestseller List: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/walking-dead-robert-kirkman-graphic-novel-bestseller-275974

 

Comic Book Resources: "THE WALKING DEAD" DOMINATES DIAMOND COMICS' 2012 TOP 500 LISTS: http://www.comicbookresources.com/?page=article&id=43051

 

Bleeding Cool : Walking Dead #115 Sells 350,000 – The Best Selling Comic Of The 2013 So Far: http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/10/10/walking-dead-115-sells-350000-the-best-selling-comic-of-the-2013-so-far/

 

 

Then the franchises (video games, experiential, comic, TV, etc), which to me illustrate that it isn’t just a bunch of fanboys and nerds in comic book shops pushing those numbers. Mass appeal can’t be measured in comics, so I think the next two are even bigger indicators:

 

Philadelphia Mag: To Do: The Walking Dead Escape at the Wells Fargo Center: http://www.phillymag.com/be-well-philly/2013/03/26/do-walking-dead-escape-april-21st/

 

Spike VGA 2012 winners: Walking Dead takes Game of the Year: http://www.phillymag.com/be-well-philly/2013/03/26/do-walking-dead-escape-april-21st/

 

Finally, the TV show. You get it, so I’m not going to list it, but dude—the show throughout this year was bigger at times ratings-wise than the NFL. That is serious. You could argue that if TWD was on network TV, its ad revenues could demand some of the highest on TV, which in terms of real world feverence, trumps any of the I just bored you with above *Also, if TWD was on network TV, it would probably suck.

 

 

Finally, anecdotally: and I’m sure you won’t like this because I can’t measure this, but whatever…

 

I’ve been to the past seven San Diego and New York Comic Cons for work—I work in the entertainment industry (not comics). I’ve also personally been to cons all over the country and abroad. It is absolutely amazing to me how absolutely ape sh*t people go for TWD. It’s certainly been propped up because of the show, but put it this way, the amount of zombies and Rick Grimes I see stands right there with the amount of caped super heroes.

 

 

B: It's arguably the most important and influential comic of the last 20 years, and if you think that's hyperbole, I don't think you're giving it the credit it deserves.

Not trying to pass this off as gospel (key word arguably), but do you legitimately think there’s another comic book franchise that has seen the amount of success and domestic/global appeal in the last 20+ years? Marvel & DC have long been established. When we look at this era, what are collectors going to point out first? Like seriously, chime in? I get that it’s opinion, but throw out some names of comics you think matter more. If we were running a comic fantasy football league, and you had the No. 1 pick, what are you choosing? Preacher? Bone? Spawn? Does Spawn/Preacher book out baseball stadiums and hockey arenas where thousands of fans dress like characters from the book and chase you around? If so, sign me up.

 

Is it opinion? Yes. That said, you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think that TWD is popular enough, and has the momentum to be the defining book of this era, whatever we call it.

 

C: It's been around for 10 years, and regardless of where it is now, I think most would consider 1-48 to be a damn good story.

Again, opinion, but two parts:

 

How many other indie comics have hit more than 100 issues? Ten years to me is a sign of longevity, when most comics can’t even stay on a monthly schedule, let alone maintain popularity for that long. Hellboy’s been around forever and has what, like 50 issues?

 

Not trying to pass it off as fact, but without those first few arcs and the prison finale, the show, the video games and everything else we’re debating don’t even exist, and Robert Kirkman is still trying to push Battle Pope onto us.

 

How many people have you ever heard say “You don’t read TWD?? DUDE, you should totally skip the prison arc and start around issue 50.”

 

D: It has one of the most notable and respected writers/creators in comics, and Kirkman pretty much churns out properties for various mediums on an annual basis.

You’re just messing with me at this point. Kirkman is at a point in his career where even the stuff he haphazardly attaches his name to gets greenlit for a scripting. He’s penning two comics a month that are above 100 issues. His resume is deep. If you want to debate it, fine, but he's in a different echelon of comic creators now:

 

Thief of Thieves: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/walking-dead-robert-kirkman-thief-of-thieves-amc-development-310260

 

Outcast: http://www.bleedingcool.com/2013/11/11/robert-kirkmans-outcast-to-be-a-new-tv-show-from-cinemax/

 

The Walking Dead: duh

 

E: The comic was popular before the show.

This will be my only smart answer. It was clearly popular enough to be greenlit (duh doy).

 

But seriously, the book was a good seller in TBP and one of Image’s top sellers pre-2010.

 

I get buying shows for the rights to box out competitors, but come on, man. Do you think a studio would move forward with a show unless it felt it was comfortable enough to sustain viewers?

 

F: The buzz has created actual demand and high prices for it’s original art, which for a modern book seems to be tricky (i.e., there’s enough of a demand that forces fans at times to pay stupid prices for it [::raises hand::]. What I'm trying to say is that even beyond the TV show, it's got more going for it than the floppies/trades.

 

Go ask Mark at Splashpage how much he was selling pages for pre 2010 compared to now. Mediocre splashes now sell for higher than covers did, even three years ago. It’s borderline delusional. There are times when I see what I can buy from other comics that I like, and I have to step away from the ledge because the market for TWD art is stupid crazy, and very volatile, but I trust it more than the floppies. I could buy a decent Neal Adams, Byrne or Jim Lee page for what some of Adlard's top stuff goes for (and that's with more than 100 pages worth of supply!). My Tony moore sketch commissions (let alone the page from N0. 1) are probably worth more than most modern artists published pages, even with the personalization.

 

MTV even offered up Walking Dead OA as a gift during the holidays:

 

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1718351/walking-dead-holiday-gift-guide.jhtml

 

ANYWAY. This is stupid and I'm upset at myself for writing all of this, but I sort of had to. I feel like such a freaking loser for writing this much-- and I even think TWD ship has some leaks. That said, it's not the Titanic.

 

Kudos on the very detailed post. I appreciate the effort to provide references and data.

 

No arguing it's popular, hard to quantify to what extent (especially versus other series). I have been to several Cons and it is a popular attraction at all of them.

 

Long term, I don't think it has the staying power of a superhero or childhood fictional character.

 

I might argue that it is more like the Lusitania and agree its definitely not the Titanic.

[retrothecollector]

I can't wait to see all the "I Told You So" memes.

 

Maybe we can have a contest for the best one?

[BarryAllen]

I can't wait to see all the "I Told You So" memes.

 

Maybe we can have a contest for the best one?

 

:shrug:

 

Extremely helpful.

 

 

[retrothecollector]

That's me! No help at all. I just like to poke and prod.

[slym2none]

I can't wait to see all the "I Told You So" memes.

 

Maybe we can have a contest for the best one?

 

 

 

 

-slym ( )

[James J]

Thanks for the post NYC.....lot of time and good information went into that (thumbs u

[comicsnyc22]

Kudos on the very detailed post. I appreciate the effort to provide references and data.

 

No arguing it's popular, hard to quantify to what extent (especially versus other series). I have been to several Cons and it is a popular attraction at all of them.

 

Long term, I don't think it has the staying power of a superhero or childhood fictional character.

 

I might argue that it is more like the Lusitania and agree its definitely not the Titanic.

 

Agreed. I think you'd be crazy to think the book will keep jumping 15-20% annually. On the flip side, there were some big time sellers on the boards who never thought 9.8's would go past $700.

 

If you ever get bored, check out TWD thread in the Modern section and have a good laugh while looking at the older posts. Lots of people jumping ship and calling the book a flash in the pan around issue 40. Yeesh.

[retrothecollector]

I can't wait to see all the "I Told You So" memes.

 

Maybe we can have a contest for the best one?

 

 

 

 

-slym ( )

[The-Collector]

Print run certainly does have some effect on price. To say it has "absolutely nothing" to do with price is a gross overstatement.

 

No, I am correct, the print run of a comic has absolutely nothing to do with its valuation. Absolutely nothing.

 

Now, if demand spikes and the available HG copies are lower than expected (due to many factors, attrition, print defects, print run, recycling drives, etc.) then it can affect price. But by itself, it is absolutely positively 100% worthless as an indicator of value.

 

 

We will have to agree to disagree. Obviously it is not the last link in the chain of causation but it does have an effect on the total number of copies available on the secondary market. That is as there will never be more than the original print run available, hence it is a determinant of the final supply, and hence price.

[BarryAllen]

Print run certainly does have some effect on price. To say it has "absolutely nothing" to do with price is a gross overstatement.

 

No, I am correct, the print run of a comic has absolutely nothing to do with its valuation. Absolutely nothing.

 

Now, if demand spikes and the available HG copies are lower than expected (due to many factors, attrition, print defects, print run, recycling drives, etc.) then it can affect price. But by itself, it is absolutely positively 100% worthless as an indicator of value.

 

 

We will have to agree to disagree. Obviously it is not the last link in the chain of causation but it does have an effect on the total number of copies available on the secondary market. That is as there will never be more than the original print run available, hence it is a determinant of the final supply, and hence price.

 

Agree with the post. There is no such thing as marketplace pricing without applying the laws of both Supply and Demand. Regardless of personal evaluation and single instances of purchase behavior, supply and demand determine market pricing equilibrium. Additionally, you cannot discuss the importance of one without the other, they are intrinsically linked. Arguing otherwise is ridiculous, tenement to denying the existence of algebra or chemistry.

 

People can love the comic all they want and hope the popularity trend continues, but ignoring or attempting to ignore proven principles of economics and mathematics is not a persuasive argument. It is silly and ruins any credibility your position might have had.

 

Maybe some (definitely not all) people in here should put down a comic once in awhile and pickup a textbook...

[joe_collector]

If you ever get bored, check out TWD thread in the Modern section and have a good laugh while looking at the older posts. Lots of people jumping ship and calling the book a flash in the pan around issue 40. Yeesh.

 

- the books die the minute the TV show starts failing and looks like it might be cancelled.

[joe_collector]

[Additionally, you cannot discuss the importance of one without the other, they are intrinsically linked. Arguing otherwise is ridiculous, tenement to denying the existence of algebra or chemistry.

 

Wow, it looks like Zombie Einstein's crawled out of his crypt and joined the discussion.

 

Next up, we won't be able to discuss valuation without eBay, right?

 

Like I said, the print run of a comic book, taken as a single factor, means absolutely nothing to a comic's market value. Absolutely nothing, and that is a verified fact.

 

Only when linked with a myriad of other factors does it even start to have an effect, and in the statement I was quoting, the OP was all over the "low print runs" like by itself, it was the be-all, end-all of "high comic prices. Which it isn't.

[BarryAllen]

[Additionally, you cannot discuss the importance of one without the other, they are intrinsically linked. Arguing otherwise is ridiculous, tenement to denying the existence of algebra or chemistry.

 

Wow, it looks like Zombie Einstein's crawled out of his crypt and joined the discussion.

 

[BarryAllen]

[Additionally, you cannot discuss the importance of one without the other, they are intrinsically linked. Arguing otherwise is ridiculous, tenement to denying the existence of algebra or chemistry.

 

Wow, it looks like Zombie Einstein's crawled out of his crypt and joined the discussion.

 

Next up, we won't be able to discuss valuation without eBay, right?

 

Like I said, the print run of a comic book, taken as a single factor, means absolutely nothing to a comic's market value. Absolutely nothing, and that is a verified fact.

 

Only when linked with a myriad of other factors does it even start to have an effect, and in the statement I was quoting, the OP was all over the "low print runs" like by itself, it was the be-all, end-all of "high comic prices. Which it isn't.

 

I can agree with some of this.

 

However, low print runs drive supply and the published fact that "print run was small" drives demand. Because the market it saturated with both Collectors and Investors, it is a difficult discussion. They do not necessarily behave the same when it comes to purchase factors.

 

In any case, to your point, nothing in a vacuum explains everything.

[joe_collector]

The best example of my statement is the 1-50-issue print run "Museum" books that were produced in the 1990's. Initially speculators went crazy, but now there is virtually no demand and the lowest print run possible hasn't done anything to drive demand.

 

A low print run, by itself, does absolutely nothing to increase prices or drive demand.

 

TWD is just hitting a perfect storm where the low print runs of early issues are being met by TV-fueled demand.

[Garf]

The best example of my statement is the 1-50-issue print run "Museum" books that were produced in the 1990's. Initially speculators went crazy, but now there is virtually no demand and the lowest print run possible hasn't done anything to drive demand.

 

A low print run, by itself, does absolutely nothing to increase prices or drive demand.

 

TWD is just hitting a perfect storm where the low print runs of early issues are being met by TV-fueled demand.

 

So where do you stand on the book itself? In the last 10 years how does the run compare to everything else out there? Does it deserve a place in the top 100 runs of all time?

 

Just wondering is all

[ImageFan-migration]

How do you quantify feverence?

 

You can not quantify what does not exist. I believe you meant fervent fan base.

 

If the point of this thread is to predict when the apparent inflationary state of The Walking Dead comic pricing will correct itself, then the thread has a purpose. Many TWD fans would love to own more of the original comic books or art pages, but the inflationary upward market of the past two years makes for a poor investment decision at the current price points.

 

There will be a market correction at some point. The books and art will never be worthless, but they will certainly revert back to a value that more closely corresponds to a true market value that is not influenced by speculation and hype caused by having a highly popular television show. I look forward to this correction because I will be able to own books and art that are fairly priced.