When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[Thermal]

I love this shiz

[retrothecollector]

Me too. Bring it. I love hearing about the end of the walking dead. The more it gets talked about the more attention it gets.

[The-Collector]

A low print run has absolutely nothing to do with an issue's valuation, otherwise Hulk 181 would be worthless and those "1-issue print run" museum books would be worth billions. And how many issues of GA Superman/Batman/etc. did they print? A few million a month?

 

Plus, The Walking Dead isn't a true marketable commodity, as there is nothing intrinsically different from their zombies than anyone else's zombies, so let's how much of a "mega key" Walking Dead 1 is a few years after the TV show gets cancelled. Trust me, it won't be a pretty sight.

 

Print run certainly does have some effect on price. To say it has "absolutely nothing" to do with price is a gross overstatement. Price is a function of supply and demand, if print run in part determines supply then it must have some effect.

[Underground44]

A low print run has absolutely nothing to do with an issue's valuation, otherwise Hulk 181 would be worthless and those "1-issue print run" museum books would be worth billions. And how many issues of GA Superman/Batman/etc. did they print? A few million a month?

 

Plus, The Walking Dead isn't a true marketable commodity, as there is nothing intrinsically different from their zombies than anyone else's zombies, so let's how much of a "mega key" Walking Dead 1 is a few years after the TV show gets cancelled. Trust me, it won't be a pretty sight.

 

 

........I feel the same way about super heros

 

Yeah... Spider-man, Superman, Batman, Wolverine etc. aren't marketable commodities....

 

Great comparison

[Hado]

Is my TWD 1 black label 9.8 worthless yet?

[Mark 1]

Before the Walking Dead, I don't recall Marvel turning their heroes into Zombies for other zombie genre movies...

 

I also don't recall Archie having an afterlife, or any of the other zombie inspired comic.

 

We can all speculate when the book will fail, but what about discussing how much TWD has influenced pop culture in recent years.

 

Plus, as someone else posted recently, I don't see threads dedicated to the failing of other keys. The WD is a phenomenon that bothers some here. Why I don't know but perhaps we can accept it and move on.

 

[Tony S]

This is what I meant by downward pricing pressure. I do not think there will be a "pop". I think prices are going to slowly move downward. I too do not see #1's in NM+ grades being $300. I think there are too many people that would like to own a copy that would step up at 25% less, more still at 50% less than today's prices.. But I also think there is simply a LARGE supply of the books in NM or better grades and that to maintain the current prices requires a LOT of people willing to pay today's prices.

 

If you purchase at today's prices, do so as a collector that wants the book now. The likelihood of further increases in prices is remote. The money has already been made by those there first.

Walking Dead #1 is a great comic book to use as a barometer against other key comic books. It has a print run a little over 7,000, but still that is considered a lot of copies to some. So if 7,000 copies is considered a lot, then what does that say for most 1970s,1980s and 1990s keys that have print runs over 200,000?

Makes you think not only about investing in Walking Dead, but also makes you think about investing in post 1970 comics as well.

 

Well, actually super high grade (9.6 or better, maybe even 9.4 or better) post 1970's comics have been not such great investments. In 9.4, for sure 9.2 or less, they have held up pretty well. But people buying 9.6/9.8 books like GL 76 or GS X-Men 1 in 2004 have seen their books drop substantially in value. Mostly - I think - those books turned out to not be so scarce as initially thought.

 

Comics have always been a bit atypical as hobbies go regarding scarcity versus demand. The most valuable items are typically not rare. Rare items aren't necessarily valuable. The character's popularity is the biggest driver. Then supply kicks in.

 

The print run of early WD's may not have been large. But an whole lot of them are for sale and a whole lot have been slabbed. If your 7000 print run is correct, 25% of the print run has been slabbed by CGC and 21% of the print run has been slabbed 9.4 or better.

 

One important thing to consider is the collector factor. Sure, maybe Conan 1 sold 200,000 copies. But only about 200 more have been sent to CGC than Walking Dead 1. Incredible Hulk 141 (1st Doc Sampson) probably sold 200,000 + copies too. But only 350 copies have been graded. So how many of these 70's and 80's books are still around today? Fact is, probably very few WD comics have been thrown out in the trash or dropped in a recycling bin. You can't say that about comics published 35-45 years ago.

 

Again, I don't see the key Walking Dead books collapsing in price. I just don't see much chance of future price increases and think it unlikely that they can even hold current prices over the next five years.

 

Hopefully I'll still be around to see which way it goes

 

[Santos208]

Walking dead is here to stay. I don't read it, but the show is F'ing awesome!!

[The-Collector]

Before the Walking Dead, I don't recall Marvel turning their heroes into Zombies for other zombie genre movies...

 

I also don't recall Archie having an afterlife, or any of the other zombie inspired comic.

 

We can all speculate when the book will fail, but what about discussing how much TWD has influenced pop culture in recent years.

 

Plus, as someone else posted recently, I don't see threads dedicated to the failing of other keys. The WD is a phenomenon that bothers some here. Why I don't know but perhaps we can accept it and move on.

 

 

Was walking dead responsible for those developments in comicdom? I was deeply into zombies, and their pop culture profile seemed to be increasing sharply long before TWD.

 

I remember the zombie craze beginning with 28 Days Later and being further accentuated by the Romero remakes.

 

And while TWD began publishing a few months before Dawn of the Dead was released, I don't remember any buzz around the comic until 2006-2007 while the Romero remake was a hit. But that might just be the way I experienced the phenomenon, not how it was actually accelerated.

Edited January 5, 2014 by The-Collector

[comicsnyc22]

Tl;dr: The fact that it’s made it this far shows it’s for real, but just based on its momentum and the odds, there’s only one place to go when you’re riding this high…

I have no idea why i'm posting here since I find this thread ridiculous, but anyway, I'll have at it. Before I jump in, i'll say that I'm a huge WD fan, but i'm also not delusional. The book has lost a good amount of momentum, and I'm not just talking price on the #1. I’ve gotten out of all WD comics that I owned, and other than a #1 and a few #92’s (still think Jesus is a major character ala Michonne) I’ve moved my entire collection into the series OA.

 

So- has the book peaked? Probably! But nonetheless, the comic has:

 

A: One of the most feverent and wide fan bases of any current franchise or entertainment entity around.

 

B: It's arguably the most important and influential comic of the last 20 years, and if you think that's hyperbole, I don't think you're giving it the credit it deserves.

 

C: It's been around for 10 years, and regardless of where it is now, I think most would consider 1-48 to be a damn good story.

 

D: It has one of the most notable and respected writers/creators in comics, and Kirkman pretty much churns out properties for various mediums on an annual basis.

 

E: The comic was popular before the show.

 

F: The buzz has created actual demand and high prices for it’s original art, which for a modern book seems to be tricky (i.e., there’s enough of a demand that forces fans at times to pay stupid prices for it [::raises hand::]. What I'm trying to say is that even beyond the TV show, it's got more going for it than the floppies/trades.

 

G: To top it off, it's got a major TV franchise that's only growing whether you like the show or not.

 

Now, I can't imagine that those highlights would make it disappear anytime soon. That said, there are some BIG flags that would freak me the hell out if I were Kirkman:

A: Issues 49-99; 103-111. You cannot tell me that there was not a drastic drop off in story line. It was hard to hang on during these arcs. Very hard. Also, the idea that you can essentially follow TWD formula is alarming: find a place to settle + encounter a bad guy/guys + fight + lose everything and get back on the road again. Yes, that’s the formula for a lot of stories, but for TWD, that’s all we've ever had.

 

B: The show to me has already shot/aired what I believe is the best draw from the book. I fear that it’s all downhill for here and have no idea what they can do based on what’s in the comic. I hope and believe they will come through. This segues into...

 

C: I don’t necessarily know if the show is converting viewers into readers. It got me, but I'm not sure if there are enough people like me.

 

D: Robert Kirkman is very ambitious (thank goodness!), and while the book is always on time, his other commitments can’t help but interfere with potentially making TWD as compelling as possible.

 

E: The show is targeting 18-34, and while we’re great with discretionary income, our attention spans are awful. Even incredible shows and franchises come and go and fall by the way side. I don't think TWD will be any different.

[Gatchaman]

Hopefully not until I make more at selling them.

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by boostergold

[James J]

A low print run has absolutely nothing to do with an issue's valuation, otherwise Hulk 181 would be worthless and those "1-issue print run" museum books would be worth billions. And how many issues of GA Superman/Batman/etc. did they print? A few million a month?

 

Plus, The Walking Dead isn't a true marketable commodity, as there is nothing intrinsically different from their zombies than anyone else's zombies, so let's how much of a "mega key" Walking Dead 1 is a few years after the TV show gets cancelled. Trust me, it won't be a pretty sight.

 

 

........I feel the same way about super heros

 

Yeah... Spider-man, Superman, Batman, Wolverine etc. aren't marketable commodities....

 

Great comparison

 

Yeah I should of been clear . I tried to....but didnt work.

I will try to one more time.The post gavé an opinion that hé felt the zombies in the WD were no différent the other past zombies. I tried to give my opinion that I felt the same way about super heros in comics.It was an IMO....but I should of made that clear from the get go...really nothing to do with marketable commodités. Sorry to All the men in tights fans out there. I mean no harm with my IMO

[Garf]

I agree with a lot of the points made here... #1 has been pushed artificially high to a certain extent, but it is the comic of a generation. The compendium / omnibus / trade sales are monsterous on Amazon alone. Do they outweigh the argument that Batman, Spiderman and assorted costumed characters are considerably more popular right now? People buying the collected editions are hardly going to be doing so because they are considering it an investment or simply to keep their run intact.

 

http://yetanothercomicsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/about-amazon-top-50-lists.html

 

In terms of longevity looking at the next 5 years could be fairly short sighted compared to the next 10 (irrespective of there being a TV show or even a comic still being produced). Looking further than that into the future, well who knows where the whole hobby will be as the way in which we and our children consume media changes? One thing that is for sure is given enough time everything dies or evolves into something new. Publications that sold in their millions and were household names before this genre as we know it started are long forgotten. Being written into pop culture won't mean much for TWD given enough time after it finishes... it'll just take quite a while to fade.

 

For now I'd say that people who bought art or #1 a little earlier than 2012 and kept it should be pretty pleased. After that? Well I can't exactly see the series being worthless when it becomes less popular. Keys and key pages from 1 - 48 should be able to take several peaks and troughs. The title of this thread is a little too all or nothing. I'll take my hat off to anyone that can draw a line in the sand when something is too hot to hold onto, then let it go and have faith they will pick it up later.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

Tl;dr: The fact that it’s made it this far shows it’s for real, but just based on its momentum and the odds, there’s only one place to go when you’re riding this high…

I have no idea why i'm posting here since I find this thread ridiculous, but anyway, I'll have at it. Before I jump in, i'll say that I'm a huge WD fan, but i'm also not delusional. The book has lost a good amount of momentum, and I'm not just talking price on the #1. I’ve gotten out of all WD comics that I owned, and other than a #1 and a few #92’s (still think Jesus is a major character ala Michonne) I’ve moved my entire collection into the series OA.

 

So- has the book peaked? Probably! But nonetheless, the comic has:

 

A: One of the most feverent and wide fan bases of any current franchise or entertainment entity around.

 

B: It's arguably the most important and influential comic of the last 20 years, and if you think that's hyperbole, I don't think you're giving it the credit it deserves.

 

C: It's been around for 10 years, and regardless of where it is now, I think most would consider 1-48 to be a damn good story.

 

D: It has one of the most notable and respected writers/creators in comics, and Kirkman pretty much churns out properties for various mediums on an annual basis.

 

E: The comic was popular before the show.

 

F: The buzz has created actual demand and high prices for it’s original art, which for a modern book seems to be tricky (i.e., there’s enough of a demand that forces fans at times to pay stupid prices for it [::raises hand::]. What I'm trying to say is that even beyond the TV show, it's got more going for it than the floppies/trades.

 

G: To top it off, it's got a major TV franchise that's only growing whether you like the show or not.

 

Now, I can't imagine that those highlights would make it disappear anytime soon. That said, there are some BIG flags that would freak me the hell out if I were Kirkman:

A: Issues 49-99; 103-111. You cannot tell me that there was not a drastic drop off in story line. It was hard to hang on during these arcs. Very hard. Also, the idea that you can essentially follow TWD formula is alarming: find a place to settle + encounter a bad guy/guys + fight + lose everything and get back on the road again. Yes, that’s the formula for a lot of stories, but for TWD, that’s all we've ever had.

 

B: The show to me has already shot/aired what I believe is the best draw from the book. I fear that it’s all downhill for here and have no idea what they can do based on what’s in the comic. I hope and believe they will come through. This segues into...

 

C: I don’t necessarily know if the show is converting viewers into readers. It got me, but I'm not sure if there are enough people like me.

 

D: Robert Kirkman is very ambitious (thank goodness!), and while the book is always on time, his other commitments can’t help but interfere with potentially making TWD as compelling as possible.

 

E: The show is targeting 18-34, and while we’re great with discretionary income, our attention spans are awful. Even incredible shows and franchises come and go and fall by the way side. I don't think TWD will be any different.

 

This is ridiculous; top points A-D, E & F are your opinion and have no factual basis of support.

 

You are making things up and passing them off as fact.

[BarryAllen]

This is silly. We are talking about zombies. There have been dozens of "extremely popular" zombie and zombie related shows, movies and titles that have been in pop culture for decades. Each one comes in (Dawn of the Dead, Day of the Dead, Resident Evil, Evil Dead) becomes popular and then slowly fades away.

 

Why, because we are talking about zombies. Blood, gore, death and horror will always be at best a polarizing form of entertainment. There are far more people who think it is gross, unnecessary or inappropriate (at a minimum for children) than there will be fans of the series.

 

If you truly believe that WD will be extremely popular and WD 1 will garner more than a few hundred bucks (because of its relative rarity) in 10 years, you must also believe that zombies are real.

[retrothecollector]

Zombies aren't real?

[James J]

Zombies aren't real?

Just ask any super Hero and they will tell you there are no such things as zombies.

[ThoseBackPages]

" There are far more people who think it is gross, unnecessary or inappropriate (at a minimum for children) than there will be fans of the series."

 

Sounds a lot like what the people that said "Rap Music will never last" said 30 years ago

 

 

[BarryAllen]

" There are far more people who think it is gross, unnecessary or inappropriate (at a minimum for children) than there will be fans of the series."

 

Sounds a lot like what the people that said "Rap Music will never last" said 30 years ago

 

 

Not the same thing. Making random references of dissimilar scenarios in an effort to make a point is not a valid argument.

 

Otherwise I could say the same thing about Furbees, or Beanie Babies or any other random thing that was popular, people spent a ton of money on it, only for it to fade into obscurity a short time later.

 

All things are not the same.

[ThoseBackPages]

Telling kids that "TWD is inappropriate" will make them want to read it. that was the point i was getting at. And believe me, there are plenty of kids of TWD Crazed Adults that will develop the fever.

 

But yes, in the end, the book (like all other comics) will drop in value.