Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?

[clobberintime]

Yep - there is absolutely no chance of anything bad ever happening and prices are on a rocket to the moon bound to never come down! Please check in with metropolis, mile high, high grade, comiclink, pedigree etc etc as I bet they can't wait to meet you.

[*paull*]

I'm 33 now and you can count me as someone who has "graduated" from SA books to GA. I rarely buy Silver now.... only to fill a couple gaps here and there, but almost exclusively buy GA horror books now, spending more than I ever did on Silver. These books were released twenty years before I was born, but I'm still fascinated with them. I was at a small local show recently and the guys who were inquiring about (and were very knowledgeable) GA books were as young or younger than me.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Did someone mention good girl art?

 

[Larryw7]

Gorgeous girls(and books!).

 

[blowout]

Yes the census will continue to fill up, but the consensus here on the boards is that pre 63 Marvel numbers will at worst double.

 

Where did you hear that?

If this statement is even remotely true (which is highly doubtfull), then it is because of collectors not submitting, rather than a lack of supply.

[sfilosa]

Per a reputable source, GA submission are way behind SA submissions.

 

Said another way, there are many known quanities of higher grade GA books in collectors hands that have not be submitted to CGC. While many of the known quanities of very high grade SA books from major collectors have been submitted.

 

The perfect example is the Church pedigree. 19,000 book collection, but less than 2,000 graded to date.

[shrunkenhead]

While there may be lots of unsubmitted GA books out there, I don't think that the reason for the lack of submissions is necessarily because collectors aren't willing to submit their books (at least not accross the board). Your example of the Mile Highs being largely unsubmitted may be because so many of them have been subjected to restoration (a travesty if you ask me), and thus it may be easier to unload them without the PLOD. So I don't know that having larger doses of the Church collection turned in will result in a major increase of desirable books on the census. In any case, the numbers will still significantly trail behind SA.

[Silver Surfer]

Per a reputable source, GA submission are way behind SA submissions.

 

Said another way, there are many known quanities of higher grade GA books in collectors hands that have not be submitted to CGC. While many of the known quanities of very high grade SA books from major collectors have been submitted.

 

The perfect example is the Church pedigree. 19,000 book collection, but less than 2,000 graded to date.

 

How much of that collection to you think has been dispersed and sold in raw form and therefore will probably never be properly labelled if ever sent to CGC?

[sfilosa]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Per a reputable source, GA submission are way behind SA submissions.

 

Said another way, there are many known quanities of higher grade GA books in collectors hands that have not be submitted to CGC. While many of the known quanities of very high grade SA books from major collectors have been submitted.

 

The perfect example is the Church pedigree. 19,000 book collection, but less than 2,000 graded to date.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

How much of that collection to you think has been dispersed and sold in raw form and therefore will probably never be properly labelled if ever sent to CGC?

 

While I'm not an expert, the point I was making was that there are SEVERAL MAJOR LONG-TERM GOLDEN-AGE COLLECTORS that DO NOT submit there COLLECTIONS to CGC. And my guess is a lot of these collectors have lots of Mile High (Church) books in their collections. And more than likely, they WILL NOT Submit their books as they have no desire to sell at this time.

 

That said, Captain Tripps pretty much submits everything and from what I have been total Tom Brulato (who probably has the best SA Marvel collection), has submitted many (not all) of his collection.

[reddog4063]

I am 25 years old and primarily collecting silver age books right now, which are all older than i am. My childhood collecting was between 1988-1993 and I remembered these old SA books in the backcase at my LCS. I always wanted them while i was picking up the modern books every week. I definitely attribute the comic book movies for getting me back into collecting, for a good ten years -high school and college- i completely forgot that comics existed. Only after seeing Spider-man in the theater did i think to myself "i wonder what that guy is up to these days". So the movies have created a good amount of demand and I believe some will stay and some will go when the tread dies down. But, demand is high these days and so are prices. The person earlier who stated this will end when the movies stop and hollywood moves on to the next big thing is right.

 

I also feel like the CGC comics market will crash somewhat in the future between books being resubmitted and being double-counted on the census and also the fact that the majority of books out there will never be graded. A year ago i bought a secret wars #8 in 9.8 condition and there were 107 9.8's out there and one 9.9, now there are 178 9.8's out there and 3 9.9's and who even knows if these were newly discovered books or resubmits?? In another years those numbers will probably double again and no one still knows. CGC needs to find a way to stop double-counts but i think that will only extend the hot streak for so long.

 

All things go up and down, if the market crashes just sit on your books and wait, it will heat up again sometime.

[Aman619]

Yes the census will continue to fill up, but the consensus here on the boards is that pre 63 Marvel numbers will at worst double.

 

Where did you hear that?

If this statement is even remotely true (which is highly doubtfull), then it is because of collectors not submitting, rather than a lack of supply.

 

after we have been all around this discussion for the year and a half Ive been here, this was my recollection, However I guess I did not specify that I meant in 9.4 only, not ALL GRADES.

 

Obviously there are thousands of every comic printed out there in collections yet to be graded. I only mean that the nosebleed early SA copies like Western Penns, Pacific Coasts never turned up in the old days, so theres little expectation (on my part) that many more such virgin killer collections are out there since nearly all the copies socked away in collections bought from dealers over the years are NMs that have magically turned into 8.0s in the last few years thanx to Steve Borock and Co.!

 

SO I feel only newly discovered OO collections that surface will ring th e9.4 bell, except on rare occasions, therby only doubling th etop of th ecensus. capisce?

[Aman619]

Reddog - - good points... just try to distinguish the Ages of books when making that argument. Modern books available in the quantities you describe are very different from a Spidey 6 or even a Bronze age key book. The fall of the 9.8 Modern book with 178 copies graded already is a poster child for the crash..... Its when one makes the argument that an early HG SA book will crash that you run into stiff opposition.....

[joe_collector]

I only mean that the nosebleed early SA copies like Western Penns, Pacific Coasts never turned up in the old days, so theres little expectation (on my part) that many more such virgin killer collections are out there.

 

The only sub-section you're missing is the dealer base of permanent collections, like the ones we've seen being posted on EBay. And these guys are usually skimming the very best of what walks into the store, and these are 9.X copies to be sure.

 

I know a few part-time dealers who've been doing it for a few decades, and the books even these small fry have are incredible. When you "do the math" and take into consideration the sheer number of serious dealers and collectors out there, I can't see the Census doing anything but mushrooming.

 

Over the next decade or two, once these older dealers decide to "cash in their chips" and CGC for eventual sale, then we'll start to have a better idea on how many NM copies are out there.

[Aman619]

Maybe. If the dealers were still collectors perhaps their private collections are rock solid. There must be some at least...though my experience has been that once a collector turns dealer or store owner, the collection gets thrown in at some point as inventory.

 

Theres also the burntBoy example. How many more collections are out there like his? 3? 30?? . We'll only know as time goes by. Also, Im still holding to the magic 9.4 line on this, and pre-'63 or '64. 9.0s and post-1965 9.4s will turn up much more frequently than the earlier stuff.

[reddog4063]

But the market for people buying a high grade spidey 6 is as small as the amount of spidey 6's out there in high grade....granted, with a newer book an increase of 100 copies or more in high grade would dilute the price of it, so would just another 10 high grade copies of spidey 6 would dilute that market. I feel the crash in older, much more expensive books would only take relatively few higher grade issues being discovered because the amount of buyers for said books are also a smaller group as compared to modern key issues.

 

 

 

Reddog - - good points... just try to distinguish the Ages of books when making that argument. Modern books available in the quantities you describe are very different from a Spidey 6 or even a Bronze age key book. The fall of the 9.8 Modern book with 178 copies graded already is a poster child for the crash..... Its when one makes the argument that an early HG SA book will crash that you run into stiff opposition.....

[joe_collector]

Maybe. If the dealers were still collectors perhaps their private collections are rock solid. There must be some at least...though my experience has been that once a collector turns dealer or store owner, the collection gets thrown in at some point as inventory.

 

Not always, and especially if the dealer has been in the game a long time. Just look at BlazingBob''s stuff, or that Eides (sp?) guy on EBay who's constantly unloading HG Silver. All the local dealers I know have permanent collections of ultra-HG Silver material, so I think it's pretty common.

 

Theres also the burntBoy example. How many more collections are out there like his? 3? 30?? . We'll only know as time goes by. Also, Im still holding to the magic 9.4 line on this, and pre-'63 or '64. 9.0s and post-1965 9.4s will turn up much more frequently than the earlier stuff.

 

I've said this before, but in the antiques and collectibles biz, it is a natural law that there are far more of anything (especially a mass-market 1960's pop collectible) than people could ever imagine. Basically, take whatever your highest estimate is, and then multiply by 20 or more.

 

Speculators and investors who buy a mass market item from the 1960's based on "rarity" and "scarcity" are doomed to failure. Even serious collectors of turn-of-the-century pop collectibles are amazed at how these keep "popping up" year after year, such as the monster find of NM late-1800's, early 1900's cigarette baseball cards a couple of years back.

 

If cigarette baseball cards from the 1800's can keep finding their way to market, and in HG, then why would someone ever think the Census has dried up on a 1963 comic book.

[fantastic_four]

Not always, and especially if the dealer has been in the game a long time. Just look at BlazingBob''s stuff, or that Eides (sp?) guy on EBay who's constantly unloading HG Silver. All the local dealers I know have permanent collections of ultra-HG Silver material, so I think it's pretty common.

 

Eides is the ONLY example of a local shop owner keeping an extensive, 9.x collection of Silver over a long period of time I've ever heard of that has been verified. Anybody got another example of this?

 

I will put money down that your statement of "all the local dealers I know" is an exaggeration, and I'd put a lesser amount down that it's a GROSS exaggeration. If you'll give us your ZIP code, we could probably make a list of the local dealers in your area and possibly determine whether you're stretching it a bit to prove a point as you're prone to do.

[sfilosa]

Eides is the ONLY example of a local shop owner keeping an extensive, 9.x collection of Silver over a long period of time I've ever heard of that has been verified. Anybody got another example of this?

 

And he's out of Marvels. He's moving on to DC's.

 

Also, as I said before, many WELL KNOWN Marvel Silver-Age collectors have either had their books CGC'd to keep (i.e. Captain Tripps , Brulato, etc.) or to sell (Bob, Eides, etc.)

 

And it's not like long-time local dealers who sell books to MAKE A LIVING, are going to keep hidden $100,000 to millions of dollars worth of incredible high-grade books so they can slave at their shop everyday.

[joe_collector]

I will put money down that your statement of "all the local dealers I know" is an exaggeration, and I'd put a lesser amount down that it's a GROSS exaggeration.

 

Then you'd lose it. Three of these guys have been out of the biz side since the early-90's mania (sold their stores or just dropped part-timing after the crash), but they're still actively collecting back issues.

 

Now if I gave you the impression that these ex-dealer's holdings were on par with Eides, then I apologize, as it's not in the same area code. These guys have nice collections, but not 9.2-9.4 runs of ALL Silver Age comics. Eides may be the only dealer with that breadth of a haul.

[joe_collector]

And it's not like long-time local dealers who sell books to MAKE A LIVING, are going to keep hidden $100,000 to millions of dollars worth of incredible high-grade books so they can slave at their shop everyday.

 

I think you misunderstood, as the guys I'm talking about are more like Blazing Bob, and have jobs, careers, etc. and just collect/deal on the side.

 

Or basically, what 90% of the forum does, only old-time dealers have been at it much longer, and have far, far, far less of an investment.