Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?

[Bonds25]

I guess the market is crashing now:

 

Metamorpho #9 CGC 9.8 Pacific Coast copy

 

Books for $50 in 9.2, and this closed at $51!!

[supapimp]

potential buyers probably knew the reserve would be over $1K.

[Rocketeer]

...plus let's face it guys,...it's Metamorpho,....who cares?,...while not a crash theorist I do believe that non-key, third tier, long forgotten titles will plummet like a rock...

[joe_collector]

...while not a crash theorist I do believe that non-key, third tier, long forgotten titles will plummet like a rock...

 

That's pretty obvious, as any comic that did not enjoy high demand before CGC, will not have longterm appeal after CGC. This kind of "low demand, high-grade condition" slabbed collectible is extremely dangerous to buy, as these have historically dropped like a rock after the bloom is off the graded rose.

 

To be totally honest, I could not predict what a Hulk 181 CGC 9.9 will sell for in 5 years, but I say with certainty that this book will not get $1K by then.

[Aman619]

Im with JC on this one too. Theres no way in my mind that a nothing book should sell for 20x guide just cause its in freakishly perfect condition. Its stilla dog of a book.

 

I hereby apologize to all three Metamorpho completists here in the room..... or is that on this planet??

[COI]

To me HG does start at 9.4

 

..and I hope most other high end collectors feel this way also, at least until I complete my ASM run. I own a number of graded 9.2's and 9.4's, and I've submitted a fair number as well. In some cases I honestly can't see the difference, or it is so minute that it simply isn't worth the difference in price. On the other end of the coin, I've got some "gift" 9.2's that look more like 9.0's, and I wish that I had gotten bigger scans and/or a more thorough description before buying.

 

I've recently been able to snag some 9.2's for quite a bit less than half the 9.4 price, and I suspect this is due to the "HG starts at 9.4" mentality. To me, it's nuts, and I hope it continues. Try to picture being in a room with EVERY existing copy of a silver marvel, and then try and visualize how much of that space would be taken up by the copies that are in true 9.0 or higher. It's a difficult thing to imagine, and obviously cannot be done with any accuracy, but it should bring home the point that "high grade" and "NM" should not be confused. Otherwise, what's a 9.2? Midgrade?

[Aman619]

at the risk of sounding completely schizophenic, I agree with you too! I find myself bouncing back an dforth between the idea that 9.2s are great bargains for the price difference they sell for when compared to the extra spine crack that separates the labels (and you from your money!) ...AND as a buying strategy, going after nice 9.2s because they will increase in price to catch the 9.4s.....

 

but, part of me says that the rules of the "game" just may stay as they are: thats is, its the label stupid!! And this dictates going after just that top 1% of all copies because they will hold their values as the other, far more plentiful, lower grades lose value due to their greater availability AND the anticipated fewer collectors seeking these expensive treasures!!!

 

what keeps me sane, however is to try to hold to both approaches for different books.

 

frinstance, I use #2 for the earliest key books, as they have always been the safest comics to buy. At these $$s lately, well, yeah ...

And I go with #1 for other later books in a run wher eI want a very clean nice book for a regular price..

Either way, Im staying away from the extreme multiples for 9.6s and the odd 9.8 SA book. THOSE, I definitelly feel WON'T keep their multiples and prices will fall back to the pack.

 

Most of all, I really dont know what will happpen or what to do in this market, but I love comics and call em as I see em!! And... the book sIve been guying these past few years in CGC slabs have ALL been much nicer than 80% ofthe stuff I used to buy at conventions....

[shadroch]

...plus let's face it guys,...it's Metamorpho,....who cares?,...while not a crash theorist I do believe that non-key, third tier, long forgotten titles will plummet like a rock...

 

I've often wondered what would happen if some hot-shot writer or artist scooped up a ton of a third tier hero's early books and then wrote a kick-[!@#%^&^] story arc involving these earlier books.Or took some minor character in some obscure book and made him the next Marvel gottahaveit guy.

[Aman619]

sounds like a novel! good plot..

[blowout]

Most of all, I really dont know what will happpen or what to do in this market, but I love comics and call em as I see em!!

 

Buy what you like and buy the book not the label.

[COI]

its the label stupid!!

 

I acknowledge that you are in partial agreement, and of 2 minds on the subject, but the above statement is scary( not for me!).

 

Right now, it is about the label, but what most "label buyers" seem to be missing is that CGC may not always be the end all, be all in grading. I realize this idea may be tough to understand in the current climate, but have you ever considered the fact that CGC may not exist 10 years from now? Or that grading standards, or the entire structure of the current grading scale may one day change? Just look at how the hobby has been drastically changed since CGC's inception; is it not possible that a drastic change in the way comics are graded/priced/purchased could happen again? And if you agree that anything is possible, don't you think it is unwise to just throw money at a number and a label which may or may not carry the same weight in this hobby that it once did? How many of you were buying "NM" books over the last 30 years, only to find that a good number of them would grade out no higher than a VF 8.0 today? So label or not, who's to say that your CGC 9.4 will infact be considered a 9.4 10 years from now?

 

The point is, things can change in a blink of an eye, and in ways you might never see coming. So was it really smart for the buyer of that overgraded Western Penn DD #7 to shell out 6K for a 9.2 in a 9.4 shell, when he could have paid 1/3rd of the price for an accurately graded 9.2? Strategically speaking, isn't it smarter to put your money in an accurately graded book, and thereby getting what you paid for, (regardless of the grade) instead of blindly buying a label and potentially getting a lesser book ? Regardless of whether it's a key or non key, from 1961 or 1988, I firmly believe that this will always be the smart way to go. Smart money is not about getting the highest grade on a label, it's about getting value for your money, or more than you paid for.

[sfilosa]

I totally agree with your comments regarding buying a nice 9.2 over an unappealing 9.4 (and paying half the price).

 

But one thing to consider is that it's very easy to say that a 9.4 looks overgraded, because you can see some very faint, stress lines. While you might see a scan of a 9.2 that looks flawless. But as someone who has had around 100 Silver-Age in CGC books in 9.0 or higher, I can honestly say that I don't feel that many (if any of my 9.2 are really undergraded). It's just they have flaw that aren't as noticable. Sometimes it's on the back cover, sometimes there are non-color breaking stress lines that are impossible to see from a scan.

 

That said, unless the book sells for less than $200 in 9.2, I would almost always rather pay $1,000 for a 9.2 than $2,500-3,000 for a 9.4, even if they are both accurately graded. That one or two tiny spine stresses are not worth $1,500-2,000 to me.

[shrunkenhead]

I think this definition of "high-grade" also varies greatly depending on your collecting interests. If you're grabbing books from the 30's, 6.0 and up is high grade. I consider pulps in VG+ to be high grade. And if you're into the Victorian stuff (not that I really know anybody that is), I gather that a GD- would perhaps be "high grade." I really see the grading obsession as being almost entirely regulated to the SA market, and I think it's definitely wise not to pay double for those 9.4's versus a 9.2

[Aman619]

I have argued the exact same points many times..... I am one of those who bought NMs and experienced these princes turn into 8.0 frogs in my mylars!

[Bonds25]

Im with JC on this one too. Theres no way in my mind that a nothing book should sell for 20x guide just cause its in freakishly perfect condition. Its stilla dog of a book.

 

I hereby apologize to all three Metamorpho completists here in the room..... or is that on this planet??

 

I agree that it shouldn't sell for 20x guide, but you'd think a CGC 9.8 silver age book of a popular character would definitely sell for more than 9.2 guide!

[tth2]

I think this definition of "high-grade" also varies greatly depending on your collecting interests. If you're grabbing books from the 30's, 6.0 and up is high grade. I consider pulps in VG+ to be high grade. And if you're into the Victorian stuff (not that I really know anybody that is), I gather that a GD- would perhaps be "high grade." I really see the grading obsession as being almost entirely regulated to the SA market, and I think it's definitely wise not to pay double for those 9.4's versus a 9.2

 

High grade is high grade, it shouldn't vary depending on what era is book is from. Perhaps someone collecting Victorian or even GA books should set their expectations reasonably and understand that they will never be able to complete a 9.4 run of books, but that doesn't mean that a 6.0 is "high grade". It's still a 6.0, just more desirable than a 6.0 would be for a SA, BA or modern book.

 

As for the second part of your statement, thanks for your views, we'll take them under, uh, advisement.

 

First, I think just as many GA collectors are as obsessed with grade as SA or other era collectors. If you don't believe that, try to get David Anderson to trade his Church Action 1 or Allentown Detective 27 for anybody else's copy. Again, the difference is that most GA collectors' expectations are set differently because they know that ultra-high grades might not be available or non-existent. But it doesn't mean that a lot of them aren't trying to find the best copy available and aren't thrilled when they come across a 9.4 copy.

 

Second, if the number of 9.4 books out there is half the number of 9.2s, or even less, then why shouldn't a 9.4 book command twice the price? Sure, from a layman's point of view there's not a whole lot of difference between a 9.2 and 9.4 or 9.6. But to a lot of collectors, the difference is huge, perhaps because the distinction is so subtle and yet so significant--it is darned hard for a comic that is 40 years old to have maintained that level of perfection. If you think spending too much money on 9.4 books is silly, that's wonderful, you should collect what you're into. But no need to denigrate collectors of 9.4 and higher books, please. Some of us do it for the sheer aesthetic appreciation of perfect books. Others of us do it for the challenge, because one glance at a Gary Dolgoff catalog, or a visit to Metropolis, will make it vividly clear that SA books, particularly Marvels, are extremely plentiful in all grades below 9.0.

[tth2]

Im with JC on this one too. Theres no way in my mind that a nothing book should sell for 20x guide just cause its in freakishly perfect condition. Its stilla dog of a book.

 

I hereby apologize to all three Metamorpho completists here in the room..... or is that on this planet??

 

I agree that it shouldn't sell for 20x guide, but you'd think a CGC 9.8 silver age book of a popular character would definitely sell for more than 9.2 guide!

 

I think Pimp had it right. Most serious collectors who might have a genuine interest in the book are also sophisticated enough to know who's selling the book and what he's likely asking for it, so why bother.

[blowout]

Strategically speaking, isn't it smarter to put your money in an accurately graded book, and thereby getting what you paid for, (regardless of the grade) instead of blindly buying a label and potentially getting a lesser book ? Regardless of whether it's a key or non key, from 1961 or 1988, I firmly believe that this will always be the smart way to go.

 

It really all depends on why you are buying the book. If it is for your personal collection and a long term keeper, then what you are saying makes perfect sense. If on the other hand you are buying a book you may sell sometime soon, for whatever reason, then the CGC label IS really all that matters.

[Timely]

When Chuck found the Church collection, it was all the rage, and that was in 1977, and it wasn't until 1988-90 that Silver Age really exploded and $5 books started selling for hundreds and even thousands.

 

Actually the Church collection had little to no rage to it at all. The books sold incredibly slow. Years later in the early 80's you could pick up the still near complete run of Batman, along with many of the best GA titles. Most collectors and dealers were appalled at paying 1.5 times MINT guide for any book, even if it was Pristine Mint!

 

West

[hobbes]

I would be freakin' thrilled if I could pick up some of the books I wanted at 1.5x guide. And they don't even need to be pedigree copies.