Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?

[Mr. Zipper]

My LCS guy (an ex-OS Advisor), had just about a complete Marvel SA run in HG... and he sold them all about 6 - 7 years ago.

 

Man, I bet he's kicking himself for not waiting a few more years.

 

[tth2]

Eides is the ONLY example of a local shop owner keeping an extensive, 9.x collection of Silver over a long period of time I've ever heard of that has been verified. Anybody got another example of this?

 

And he's out of Marvels. He's moving on to DC's.

 

It's about freakin' time!!!

[shrunkenhead]

I also doubt that so many comic dealers are hoarding high-grade stuff. I don't know if this is the case with you folks, but my LCS is purely nickel-and-dime type of stuff, kids with bubblegum money who want yu-gi-oh cards and that kinda thing. If a person walks in there and buys four or 5 tpbs at retail they're considered a big spender. I think if I walked in there with a church copy of something and tried to sell it, they wouldn't know what to do with it. I could be wrong, but my suspicion is this is the kind of establishment that most comic "dealers" are running, and there's not much hi-grade that's going to trickle into a place like that!

[Aman619]

good discussion so far..... just want to add that for me, Im talking about 9.4s. How many of these guys have killer 9.4s? Some, yeah. Lots? gee still dont think so... But there are some to be sure. Bob Storms sold his, but most of the other big guys havent... have they?

[fantastic_four]

Also, as I said before, many WELL KNOWN Marvel Silver-Age collectors have either had their books CGC'd to keep (i.e. Captain Tripps , Brulato, etc.) or to sell (Bob, Eides, etc.)

 

Did Bob really slab his to sell? I dunno; it might've been for the same or similar reasons that the top-of-the-census guys did, to figure out where his books ranked to figure out what to sell, what not to, and how well they picked 'em over the years. I know he slabbed them a while before he sold them, because they were mostly all old labels, and he sold them long after the new label style began. Doesn't mean he didn't slab them originally knowing that he'd eventually sell, but who knows, except him.

[sfilosa]

I understand your point about Bob's books;

 

But my point was that many Marvel SA top collectors / dealers have already had their collection (regardless if it was to keep or to sell) CGC'd.

 

This is not the case with Golden-Age to any extent.

[blowout]

Im talking about 9.4s. How many of these guys have killer 9.4s? Some, yeah. Lots? gee still dont think so

 

I don't think there are 'lots' out there either. But your comment that the census will only double on these books is IMO a serious underestimation.

[Aman619]

its hard to pick a number like double or triple etc when describing 100s of individual books, right? what term would you use? For instance if there are 4 9.4s now on one book and 8 on another, will both double? or the one with 4 triple? Some early books are in double digits already in 9.4. Does that mean that a greater percentage of all of them in existence are already graded for whatever random reason?? or that there are simply MORE of them around?

 

heres the current Spidey figures for #1 thru 20 in 9.4.

Give me an idea how many you think will be in the census in 5 years? I dunno, double these numbers seems about right, triple too much...

like look at #8. Its vbeen proven out to be more common than other issues, but are there really going to be 54 9.4s in total ?

1.... 5

2.... 3

3.... 5

4.... 7

5.... 6

 

6.... 7

7.... 10

8.... 18

9.... 8

10... 11

 

11.... 6

12.... 9

13....11

14....14

15....10

 

16....10

17....14

18....10

19....16

20.... 9

[Bonds25]

Now if I gave you the impression that these ex-dealer's holdings were on par with Eides, then I apologize,

 

Are you feeling OK???

[Aman619]

yeah... what was that all about?

[Aman619]

but dont mention it... we need to positively reinforce upbeat posts like that.

[blowout]

Give me an idea how many you think will be in the census in 5 years?

 

As you have said yourself, it is really difficult to put an actual figure on it. A point to remember though is that CGC has not been around for long and the graded comic book market is still a very young one. When it has matured in a few more years, then the census may be a more reliable tool for predicting the number of HG books still around. At the moment I think the CGC census is misleading.

[sfilosa]

At the moment I think the CGC census is misleading.

 

Depends on what you are using it for.

 

If you are trying to get an accurate assement of how many high grade copies of a particular issue are in exsistence, then you are correct.

 

But if you use the census these two ways, it is very helpful:

 

1) To determine the AVAILABILITY of a book, certified by CGC in a particular grade. To expand, I collect many books from the 50's and in some cases there are no certified copies in even CGC 8.0. Doesn't mean there won't be someday, but I shouldn't hold my breath looking for these issues. Plus, if there is only one in 8.0, then I might have to be more aggressive trying to buy the book.

 

2) To determine which books are (and probably will be in the future), more easily found in high-grade. The ASM #8 was a perfect example. So would a DD #9 or Thor #132, etc. The are many more high-grade copies of these books certified than the surrounding issues, and NONE are Keys (therefore no reason to submit these any more than another issue).

 

So the census is useful.

[tth2]

 

One qualification on your comment about using the census as an indication of availability. Obviously you're right that if the census shows only 1 8.0 and nothing higher, then at that moment you physically can't buy any CGC book higher than that. But I don't know that it would necessarily drive me to be more aggressive in trying to buy the 8.0 copy, or pay a higher premium for it on the basis that it's "top of census", IF I'm fairly confident that there are likely to be more copies in equal or higher grade surfacing.

[sfilosa]

But I don't know that it would necessarily drive me to be more aggressive in trying to buy the 8.0 copy, or pay a higher premium for it on the basis that it's "top of census", IF I'm fairly confident that there are likely to be more copies in equal or higher grade surfacing.

 

I understand.

 

I'm not a biggy on the Highest Certified Copy either (eventhough I probably have 20 books that are).

 

I was mostly referring to the fact that I only buy books in CGC 8.0 or higher. If there is only one copy in CGC 8.0 and it's up for sale, I would be more aggressive not because it's the HCC, but because it's the ONLY book at this time that meets my requirements.

[lou_fine]

While there may be lots of unsubmitted GA books out there, I don't think that the reason for the lack of submissions is necessarily because collectors aren't willing to submit their books (at least not accross the board). Your example of the Mile Highs being largely unsubmitted may be because so many of them have been subjected to restoration (a travesty if you ask me), and thus it may be easier to unload them without the PLOD. So I don't know that having larger doses of the Church collection turned in will result in a major increase of desirable books on the census. In any case, the numbers will still significantly trail behind SA.

 

I believe the lack of GA submissions have a lot more to do with the mindset of the GA collector as oppossed to the mindset of the SA or BA collector. GA collectors have generally been in the hobby for a much longer period of time, and have been brought up on the idea of collecting. HG SA collectors are generally a younger crowd and have a heavier slant towards the investing side of the market as oppossed to the GA collectors.

 

As a result of the different mindsets, GA collectors have far less interest in slabbing their books until it comes time to sell. SA collectors, on the other hand tend to slab because it is part and parcel of their collecting/investing intentions.

[lou_fine]

I also doubt that so many comic dealers are hoarding high-grade stuff. I don't know if this is the case with you folks, but my LCS is purely nickel-and-dime type of stuff, kids with bubblegum money who want yu-gi-oh cards and that kinda thing. If a person walks in there and buys four or 5 tpbs at retail they're considered a big spender. I think if I walked in there with a church copy of something and tried to sell it, they wouldn't know what to do with it. I could be wrong, but my suspicion is this is the kind of establishment that most comic "dealers" are running, and there's not much hi-grade that's going to trickle into a place like that!

 

I am generally in agreement with this statement since most of the comic shops are relatively new and would not have any of the truly HG older books. There are exceptions here, however, and these would revolve around some of the larger shops or major dealers who have been in business for a long time.

 

For example, in my city we have about 5 or 6 shops. None of them would have any books of real value since they are generally quite new. In addition, they are so small that they would not be able to finance a major buy if one did come along. There is one comic shop, however, that has been in business for over 20 years and I know the owner has a copy of every SA Marvel and DC book in his personal collection. Don't believe they are comparable to the Eides in grade, but still really quite nice since he has been upgrading for the past 20 years.

 

I do know that he was able to pick up a OO collection of approx. 900 books dating from the mid 1940's. These would have no problems grading over 9.0 from what I have seen in his safety deposit boxes. Not a single one has yet been graded even though CGC had offered to grade and possibly attached a pedigree when they first came into business. Although he laughs at all the hype surrounding CGC, I suspect he is planning to sell them eventually to fund an early retirement.

 

BTW, you should ask Steve at Metro about his HG SA collection if you don't think there are any raw HG SA books left out there.

[Aman619]

does steve have multiples of the early Marvels? Or just one or two at most?

[tth2]

BTW, you should ask Steve at Metro about his HG SA collection if you don't think there are any raw HG SA books left out there.

 

That's exactly who I was going to mention as a dealer who had a great collection that had not been slabbed or made available yet! I believe Josh Nathanson has a pretty good collection too, although I don't know how much is raw.

[drbanner]

BTW, you should ask Steve at Metro about his HG SA collection if you don't think there are any raw HG SA books left out there.

 

That's exactly who I was going to mention as a dealer who had a great collection that had not been slabbed or made available yet! I believe Josh Nathanson has a pretty good collection too, although I don't know how much is raw.

 

Somehow I don't think using the largest dealer of vintage comic books in the world to illustrate the point that there are plenty of dealers out there with HG unslabbed collections makes a very convincing argument!! I mean, how many largest dealers of vintage comic books in the world are there?