Do speculators make this hobby better or worse?

[ComicConnoisseur]

My thoughts?

 

If I have a bunch of Peter Panzerfaust #1 that I bought for cover,then speculation rules.

 

If I don't have a single one,Its totally preposterous that this comic is worth $500.

 

No-one outside these boards care what any of us think.

 

If someone wants to pay $500 for a 9.8 copy of Peter Panzerfaust #1 - then thats what its worth.

 

We can grumble all we like,but if a new book is worth more than a GA funny book that we have had for 50 years,then tough.

 

PP is worth what its worth,because people are willing to pay it.

 

When they aren't, the next 'hot thing' - which seems to be Blackacre for some god-only-knows-reason comes into play.

 

Is it how things should be?

 

I really don't think its up to us,no matter how dedicated a collector any of us may be ,to come down on one section of the comic book market,just because it doesn't seem fair.

 

Thats what it seems to boil down to - my old funny book is worth less than your new funny book....and I don't like it.

 

Last thing I'll say, is that most flippers tend to roll any profits into GA/SA/BA keys....so thats got to be good for all,yes?

 

Keeping the money in the hobby.

Great post,and sums it up perfectly.

Speculators are like dealers who play the press and resub game,as they both bring money into the hobby. Take away them both, and overall sales would plumet.

Print runs of your average comic book would go from 30,000 to about 15,000,while your common slabbed silver age to slabbed copper age comic book would sit or lose value year after year because of lack of movement,and inflation.

 

[comicwiz]

On Iron Man 55, it's been a sleeper key forever. Collectors have always complained about how tough a book it is to find in high grade - WAY before Thanos appeared in the Avengers.

 

I don't do shows like I did in the past, but I'd sooner consider Iron Man 55 a Bronze-Age key before Daredevil 131, ASM 129, Marvel Spotlight 5, WBN 32, and pretty much any 2nd/3rd tier character introduction. And yet, I'd never see Iron Man 55 at shows. Never.

 

Iron Man 55 is also recent memory, but a lot of people seem to be ignoring the gains made by AF 15. Justified? I guess it depends on whether you have one or not, but there is no way anyone is going to convince me an apparent VF 8.0 went from being a $3K book to a $10K book in the span of 3 years.

 

What do you account for the way Our Army at War 83 shot up in the period of a year?

 

Maybe specs are to blame, but these are still key books that have the track record to prove they've been on collectors radars with reason, and while the hype may have pushed them to a higher ground, I don't see speculation as the only reason they've enjoyed sustained value increases.

 

I asked myself the same question when I sold my 6.5 for $2.5k in 2011, after it had been $2.5k since CGC began, only to see it triple in value in the following 6 months.

 

How many times can one person be on the wrong side of the upswing ?

 

 

 

I dont have anything of substabce to say about Comicwiz's argument I only wish to add that I would not lump The punisher in with Ghost Rider, Elektra Bullseye and Moonknight.

 

If you look at it out of context I agree. Especially because none of those books can hold a candle to the importance of IM 55, but that's my opinion. And they're as common as dirt in comparison.

 

But what I meant through my comment is I'd never see Iron Man 55 on dealers wall of comics. Never. And believe me when I say I looked.

 

I would argue that one of the most important factors that played out in the meteoric rise in value was that most dealers weren't sitting on an inventory of IM 55 like they were with any other BA key.

 

I'd go one further to say that those dealers were probably the ones looking to fulfill growing want list requests for the book and were likely just as responsible for driving-up the price as much as any spec scenario.

[Conan_Aficionado]

SPECUUULLLAAATTTTOOOORRRSSS!!!!!

[Buzzetta]

For years, IM 55 was an under-appreciated key book. The Marvel 'Galaxy' fans recognized the importance of owning a book of featuring the first appearance of their favorite titles main villain but not many others did.

 

With that said, dealers did not focus on it. All of a sudden Avengers starts leaning towards a galaxy angle and everyone starts scampering for it and it gets the respect it deserves.

 

I feel this is the same as with Batman 232. Ras Al Gul was a key book but only to the more hardcore Batman fans. All of a sudden, Batman Begins comes out and everyone sees for themselves how cool a villain Ras actually is.

[batman_fan]

For years, IM 55 was an under-appreciated key book. The Marvel 'Galaxy' fans recognized the importance of owning a book of featuring the first appearance of their favorite titles main villain but not many others did.

 

With that said, dealers did not focus on it. All of a sudden Avengers starts leaning towards a galaxy angle and everyone starts scampering for it and it gets the respect it deserves.

 

I feel this is the same as with Batman 232. Ras Al Gul was a key book but only to the more hardcore Batman fans. All of a sudden, Batman Begins comes out and everyone sees for themselves how cool a villain Ras actually is.

 

I started hoarding the book in the 1980's (thumbs u

 

Loved the green cover and Adam's interior artwork was incredible.

[COI]

In response to Twilight's popularity, I started breeding wolves; I figured every 14 year-old girl would want a wolf to cuddle after watching Jacob the werewolf run around topless over the course of 4 movies. I made no money, and now I have rabies.

 

A cautionary tale of avarice.

 

 

[Old Fashion PB and J]

I think the demons head storyline and the saga of ras predate the movie a little. The talia craze I will agree though.

[Old Fashion PB and J]

And the marvel "galaxy" stuff. Thanos played a huge part in annihilation conquest, and was killed. The brought him back in gotg and it was good. But didn't get that much attention. Then movie talk and bam! It wasn't undervalued, but it's now over priced.

[The-Collector]

On Iron Man 55, it's been a sleeper key forever. Collectors have always complained about how tough a book it is to find in high grade - WAY before Thanos appeared in the Avengers.

 

I don't do shows like I did in the past, but I'd sooner consider Iron Man 55 a Bronze-Age key before Daredevil 131, ASM 129, Marvel Spotlight 5, WBN 32, and pretty much any 2nd/3rd tier character introduction. And yet, I'd never see Iron Man 55 at shows. Never.

 

Iron Man 55 is also recent memory, but a lot of people seem to be ignoring the gains made by AF 15. Justified? I guess it depends on whether you have one or not, but there is no way anyone is going to convince me an apparent VF 8.0 went from being a $3K book to a $10K book in the span of 3 years.

 

What do you account for the way Our Army at War 83 shot up in the period of a year?

 

Maybe specs are to blame, but these are still key books that have the track record to prove they've been on collectors radars with reason, and while the hype may have pushed them to a higher ground, I don't see speculation as the only reason they've enjoyed sustained value increases.

 

I asked myself the same question when I sold my 6.5 for $2.5k in 2011, after it had been $2.5k since CGC began, only to see it triple in value in the following 6 months.

 

How many times can one person be on the wrong side of the upswing ?

 

 

 

I dont have anything of substabce to say about Comicwiz's argument I only wish to add that I would not lump The punisher in with Ghost Rider, Elektra Bullseye and Moonknight.

 

If you look at it out of context I agree. Especially because none of those books can hold a candle to the importance of IM 55, but that's my opinion. And they're as common as dirt in comparison.

 

But what I meant through my comment is I'd never see Iron Man 55 on dealers wall of comics. Never. And believe me when I say I looked.

 

I would argue that one of the most important factors that played out in the meteoric rise in value was that most dealers weren't sitting on an inventory of IM 55 like they were with any other BA key.

 

I'd go one further to say that those dealers were probably the ones looking to fulfill growing want list requests for the book and were likely just as responsible for driving-up the price as much as any spec scenario.

 

Another stuff up. Last night I was not on the ball.

[comicwiz]

It wasn't undervalued, but it's now over priced.

 

When people are listing apparent extensive VF's at 10K, I'd sooner say that about AF 15 than IM 55, that's for certain (thumbs u

[accessndx]

Has this had any effect on actual sales of Avengers comics though?

 

Yes practically all the prices of silver and bronze age Avengers key comics are up. It hasn't had a significant impact on current era comics however.

[accessndx]

 

Batman The Dark Knight Rises made over $1 billion too.

 

 

Excellent point also. I consistently forget that one....

[sl4ppy]

TLDR the whole thread, but every single one of us are speculators.

[Underground44]

I have a feeling if comics were not viewed as commodities we'd see more good comics and less renumberings, reboots, deaths, resurrections, variant covers, and crossovers.

 

+1

 

we are almost to the same point as the early '90s when the bubble popped and the industry crashed and burned

 

Publishers are smarter than they were then. The print runs were astronomical in the 90's and a lot of the content was rubbish. At least MOST of the books published today have good art/writing in general - Especially a lot of the Image stuff.

[Qiky]

My thoughts?

 

If I have a bunch of Peter Panzerfaust #1 that I bought for cover,then speculation rules.

 

If I don't have a single one,Its totally preposterous that this comic is worth $500.

 

No-one outside these boards care what any of us think.

 

If someone wants to pay $500 for a 9.8 copy of Peter Panzerfaust #1 - then thats what its worth.

 

We can grumble all we like,but if a new book is worth more than a GA funny book that we have had for 50 years,then tough.

 

PP is worth what its worth,because people are willing to pay it.

 

When they aren't, the next 'hot thing' - which seems to be Blackacre for some god-only-knows-reason comes into play.

 

Is it how things should be?

 

I really don't think its up to us,no matter how dedicated a collector any of us may be ,to come down on one section of the comic book market,just because it doesn't seem fair.

 

Thats what it seems to boil down to - my old funny book is worth less than your new funny book....and I don't like it.

 

Last thing I'll say, is that most flippers tend to roll any profits into GA/SA/BA keys....so thats got to be good for all,yes?

 

Keeping the money in the hobby.

 

This all makes perfect sense except your missing one important thing.

Something being worth what people are willing to pay doesn't work in a false economy which is what modern speculation is right now. Deep down we all know PP is not a $400 book and when enough market indicators prove this to be the case that's when the market crashes.

It's like saying sub prime mortgage debt was worth what people traded for it. Look how that ended...

 

As for the people saying the avengers and TDKR made a billion dollars so the industry is going no where. That is so short sighted. The market can disappear overnight we see It all the time.

Don't believe it look at the 80s music scene, hair metal was a cash cow and literally overnight Kurt Cobain killed the entire genre. The execs don't care they just jump on the next big thing, they say thanks for the billions from comic book story lines but now audiences want low budget indie flicks so shelve everything.

These aren't new concepts.

[accessndx]

This all makes perfect sense except your missing one important thing.

Something being worth what people are willing to pay doesn't work in a false economy which is what modern speculation is right now. Deep down we all know PP is not a $400 book and when enough market indicators prove this to be the case that's when the market crashes.

It's like saying sub prime mortgage debt was worth what people traded for it. Look how that ended...

 

That was all fueled by greedy banks that knew better and simple folks who just wanted a home they couldn't afford. To use this as an analogy is just using buzzwords without any relevant context.

The folks that are buying PP can afford PP......EVEN AT $400. Nobody is going bankrupt or losing their home over a purchase of this comic.

The collecting "industry" won't implode because a few folks are selling a comic for more than others expected it to sell for.

 

Furthermore, saying that because the Avengers move or the Dark Knight trilogy made insane money but that won't necessarily drive the industry in any particular direction is a bit silly. It already has driven the industry at least 5-10 years from now in a singular direction. There's been announcements of a Phase 3 Marvel release of titles including Dr. Strange recently. That's even before the Phase 2 Marvel properties are out including Iron Man 3, Avengers 2, Guardians of the Galaxy...etc.

You've got a JLA movie on the Horizon for 2015, with additional Superman, Batman, Flash, Wonder Woman and Green Lantern flicks at various stages of development before and after that as well.

You've got Sixth Gun being picked up for a Pilot on NBC that appears to be about as greenlit as you can get.....and the list goes on and on and on.

 

The trend has been established and will continue as stated at least until 2015...

Each movie is a multi-million dollar project that has the potential to bring in billions combined.

 

So speculate I will, and for the rest you can stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

[comix4fun]

In response to Twilight's popularity, I started breeding wolves; I figured every 14 year-old girl would want a wolf to cuddle after watching Jacob the werewolf run around topless over the course of 4 movies. I made no money, and now I have rabies.

 

A cautionary tale of avarice.

 

 

Your tale, much like the speculation boom-bust crazes, demonstrate that the juice is, oft times, not worth the squeeze.

[Park]

In response to Twilight's popularity, I started breeding wolves; I figured every 14 year-old girl would want a wolf to cuddle after watching Jacob the werewolf run around topless over the course of 4 movies. I made no money, and now I have rabies.

 

A cautionary tale of avarice.

 

 

I started creating vampires. Sparkly vampires. I made oodles of money and, of course, no rabies.

 

A speculative tale of successful speculation.

[accessndx]

I started creating vampires. Sparkly vampires. I made oodles of money and, of course, no rabies.

A speculative tale of successful speculation.

 

How come Mummies get no love in the movies anymore?

[rjpb]

I started creating vampires. Sparkly vampires. I made oodles of money and, of course, no rabies.

A speculative tale of successful speculation.

 

How come Mummies get no love in the movies anymore?

 

tana leaves are hard to come by.