Do speculators make this hobby better or worse?

[tinynascarfan-migration]

very interesting reading on this post

[COI]

In response to Twilight's popularity, I started breeding wolves; I figured every 14 year-old girl would want a wolf to cuddle after watching Jacob the werewolf run around topless over the course of 4 movies. I made no money, and now I have rabies.

 

A cautionary tale of avarice.

 

 

I started creating vampires. Sparkly vampires. I made oodles of money and, of course, no rabies.

 

A speculative tale of successful speculation.

 

Let's rent some warehouse space, get a UFC-like Octagon, pit my wolves against your vampires and charge $10 bucks a head. We'll institute MMA's 10-point must system, with the loser scoring 9 or less based on effective biting, clawing, sparkling, and octagon control.

[Prince Namor]

In response to Twilight's popularity, I started breeding wolves; I figured every 14 year-old girl would want a wolf to cuddle after watching Jacob the werewolf run around topless over the course of 4 movies. I made no money, and now I have rabies.

 

A cautionary tale of avarice.

 

 

I started creating vampires. Sparkly vampires. I made oodles of money and, of course, no rabies.

 

A speculative tale of successful speculation.

 

Let's rent some warehouse space, get a UFC-like Octagon, pit my wolves against your vampires and charge $10 bucks a head. We'll institute MMA's 10-point must system, with the loser scoring 9 or less based on effective biting, clawing, sparkling, and octagon control.

 

I speculate there will be blood.

[Prince Namor]

This all makes perfect sense except your missing one important thing.

Something being worth what people are willing to pay doesn't work in a false economy which is what modern speculation is right now. Deep down we all know PP is not a $400 book and when enough market indicators prove this to be the case that's when the market crashes.

It's like saying sub prime mortgage debt was worth what people traded for it. Look how that ended...

 

That was all fueled by greedy banks that knew better and simple folks who just wanted a home they couldn't afford. To use this as an analogy is just using buzzwords without any relevant context.

The folks that are buying PP can afford PP......EVEN AT $400. Nobody is going bankrupt or losing their home over a purchase of this comic.

The collecting "industry" won't implode because a few folks are selling a comic for more than others expected it to sell for.

 

Furthermore, saying that because the Avengers move or the Dark Knight trilogy made insane money but that won't necessarily drive the industry in any particular direction is a bit silly. It already has driven the industry at least 5-10 years from now in a singular direction. There's been announcements of a Phase 3 Marvel release of titles including Dr. Strange recently. That's even before the Phase 2 Marvel properties are out including Iron Man 3, Avengers 2, Guardians of the Galaxy...etc.

You've got a JLA movie on the Horizon for 2015, with additional Superman, Batman, Flash, Wonder Woman and Green Lantern flicks at various stages of development before and after that as well.

You've got Sixth Gun being picked up for a Pilot on NBC that appears to be about as greenlit as you can get.....and the list goes on and on and on.

 

The trend has been established and will continue as stated at least until 2015...

Each movie is a multi-million dollar project that has the potential to bring in billions combined.

 

So speculate I will, and for the rest you can stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

 

The success of the DC New 52 had nothing to do with the movies. The Green Lantern movie was a bust and yet it's still one of the best selling comics they have. JLA was rocking big numbers before they ever announced a movie.

Marvel has made the most successful movies of anyone, yet their non-event books are stagnant.

'picked up as a Pilot' and 'about as greenlit as you can get' and 'production deal' are all entertainment industry phrases that can be applied to thousands of ideas that never get done and have never gotten done.

Revival was 'about as greenlit as you can get' and the studio just dropped them and stole the idea.

The health of this hobby has nothing to do with movies or flipping. It has to do with making good comics and getting them into the hands of as many people as possible.

 

[Dr. Balls]

I'm having trouble keeping up in buying key books with all these tv shows and movies coming out. It's like a mad dash to pick up books before the crazies pick them to be their speculative darlings and drive prices through the roof.

 

I passed up a PP #1 for $100 three weeks ago thinking that was ludicrous, and last night I watched a raw NM with spine ticks and scuffing go for $212 on the 'Bay. I'm just going to give up on PP #1 and be thankful I've got 2-8 at this point.

[comix4fun]

I'm having trouble keeping up in buying key books with all these tv shows and movies coming out. It's like a mad dash to pick up books before the crazies pick them to be their speculative darlings and drive prices through the roof.

 

I passed up a PP #1 for $100 three weeks ago thinking that was ludicrous, and last night I watched a raw NM with spine ticks and scuffing go for $212 on the 'Bay. I'm just going to give up on PP #1 and be thankful I've got 2-8 at this point.

 

 

Part of it is people don't realize how many properties are options for TV or film development that NEVER EVER see the light of day and out of the ones that do see the light of day actually last 1 season.

 

People read "to be developed for TV or motion picture" and think it's going to be TV show when there are tons of pitfalls and things that come between here and there.

 

Look no further than "The Goon" and Oscar winner David Fincher who optioned it 5 years ago. There's a ton of juice behind the people pushing Goon and it's still stuck.

[mschmidt]

I'm having trouble keeping up in buying key books with all these tv shows and movies coming out. It's like a mad dash to pick up books before the crazies pick them to be their speculative darlings and drive prices through the roof.

 

I passed up a PP #1 for $100 three weeks ago thinking that was ludicrous, and last night I watched a raw NM with spine ticks and scuffing go for $212 on the 'Bay. I'm just going to give up on PP #1 and be thankful I've got 2-8 at this point.

 

 

Part of it is people don't realize how many properties are options for TV or film development that NEVER EVER see the light of day and out of the ones that do see the light of day actually last 1 season.

 

People read "to be developed for TV or motion picture" and think it's going to be TV show when there are tons of pitfalls and things that come between here and there.

 

Look no further than "The Goon" and Oscar winner David Fincher who optioned it 5 years ago. There's a ton of juice behind the people pushing Goon and it's still stuck.

 

Your logic has no place here

 

Everyone knows that "possibly optioned for TV" means "WALKING DEAD $$$".

[Dr. Balls]

I'm having trouble keeping up in buying key books with all these tv shows and movies coming out. It's like a mad dash to pick up books before the crazies pick them to be their speculative darlings and drive prices through the roof.

 

I passed up a PP #1 for $100 three weeks ago thinking that was ludicrous, and last night I watched a raw NM with spine ticks and scuffing go for $212 on the 'Bay. I'm just going to give up on PP #1 and be thankful I've got 2-8 at this point.

 

 

Part of it is people don't realize how many properties are options for TV or film development that NEVER EVER see the light of day and out of the ones that do see the light of day actually last 1 season.

 

People read "to be developed for TV or motion picture" and think it's going to be TV show when there are tons of pitfalls and things that come between here and there.

 

Look no further than "The Goon" and Oscar winner David Fincher who optioned it 5 years ago. There's a ton of juice behind the people pushing Goon and it's still stuck.

 

Or my personal favorite: Hack/Slash. Although, that's been in Development Hell for so long, the prices for their older issues are pretty reasonable nowadays.

 

I think PP is a great one to pick up and sell, but I foresee some problems with it being a serialized TV show. But, by the time people put that together - I think it's going to generate some good pocket change for sellers.

[Park]

In response to Twilight's popularity, I started breeding wolves; I figured every 14 year-old girl would want a wolf to cuddle after watching Jacob the werewolf run around topless over the course of 4 movies. I made no money, and now I have rabies.

 

A cautionary tale of avarice.

 

 

I started creating vampires. Sparkly vampires. I made oodles of money and, of course, no rabies.

 

A speculative tale of successful speculation.

 

Let's rent some warehouse space, get a UFC-like Octagon, pit my wolves against your vampires and charge $10 bucks a head. We'll institute MMA's 10-point must system, with the loser scoring 9 or less based on effective biting, clawing, sparkling, and octagon control.

 

I see why you made no money.

 

Three words: Sparkly Male Dancers.

 

It'll be like Solid Gold on crack. You provide the security.

 

[Beige]

I'm having trouble keeping up in buying key books with all these tv shows and movies coming out. It's like a mad dash to pick up books before the crazies pick them to be their speculative darlings and drive prices through the roof.

 

I passed up a PP #1 for $100 three weeks ago thinking that was ludicrous, and last night I watched a raw NM with spine ticks and scuffing go for $212 on the 'Bay. I'm just going to give up on PP #1 and be thankful I've got 2-8 at this point.

 

 

Part of it is people don't realize how many properties are options for TV or film development that NEVER EVER see the light of day and out of the ones that do see the light of day actually last 1 season.

 

People read "to be developed for TV or motion picture" and think it's going to be TV show when there are tons of pitfalls and things that come between here and there.

 

Look no further than "The Goon" and Oscar winner David Fincher who optioned it 5 years ago. There's a ton of juice behind the people pushing Goon and it's still stuck.

 

Or my personal favorite: Hack/Slash. Although, that's been in Development Hell for so long, the prices for their older issues are pretty reasonable nowadays.

 

I think PP is a great one to pick up and sell, but I foresee some problems with it being a serialized TV show. But, by the time people put that together - I think it's going to generate some good pocket change for sellers.

 

BBC series on not,the profits made from PP (using this book as an example) by board speculators at least, will be rolling straight back into the hobby Jason.

Either in the form of buying new books, or as others do,the purchase of genuine Key books.

If speculators turn over their product and the individual non-board buyer proudly displays his/her PP #1 on their mantle at home, happy to have it for the book,not the price paid, then its win/win with extra purchases of books using the PP profits.

Its the variants I worry about.

The recent Ghost/Phantoms etc are showing the usual 6 month falls and whilst their purchase prices (while silly in some cases) were not high enough to lose sleep over, others are.

People who are paying over $1000 for the ASM #700 Ditko variant are going to get stung like all blazes - they won't be coming back anytime soon to buy another comic.

 

[Old Fashion PB and J]

TLDR the whole thread, but every single one of us are speculators.

Nope, I still slab modern Detectives KNOWING I will lose money eventually. I don't buy books to flip anymore, and genuinely just buy for myself.

[Qiky]

 

The recent Ghost/Phantoms etc are showing the usual 6 month falls and whilst their purchase prices (while silly in some cases) were not high enough to lose sleep over, others are.

People who are paying over $1000 for the ASM #700 Ditko variant are going to get stung like all blazes - they won't be coming back anytime soon to buy another comic.

 

 

Despite everything else we are arguing about in this thread, this part is the biggest worry. I think everyone can agree that this phantom and stupid variants are doing more harm than good.

[Beige]

Yup - the phantom rubbish - a 'pay-back' on the ghost group for not including Larry loose-lips in TWD variant, is nothing but a sickening cash-grab.

Cover may say $2.99, but somehow they spiral to $15+ within minutes.

People strangely still buy them.

[Qiky]

I'm a massive fan of Bedlam, and within reason I went out to get every variant (Not to flip I just believe in the title). Still couldn't care less about the phantom variant.

[seanfingh]

Aussies

 

 

Y U No Love Larry?

[Beige]

Sean - you miss his last two rants in Moderns?

Lets just say he was less than kind about a few boardies on here, actually quite a few.

'Scum', 'larceny' and other such compliments such as 'putrid' iirc were thrown around in quite a few directions, when the Modern folk arose from their slumber, lit torches,sharpened pitchforks and invaded Castle Variant.

It was messy and at the end, the forces of moderation slapped Count Larry with another weeks holiday.

That,and quite a few people are fed up with every bloody post being an advertisement for his comics.

So apart from that,his racism and a multitude of potty-mouthed twitter rantings, I think he's a fine fellow.

Others may disagree, as is their right. (thumbs u

[the blob]

I have a feeling if comics were not viewed as commodities we'd see more good comics and less renumberings, reboots, deaths, resurrections, variant covers, and crossovers.

 

+1

 

we are almost to the same point as the early '90s when the bubble popped and the industry crashed and burned

 

it is an entirely different animal nowadays. nobody is investing in a palette of some hot book. cover prices too high and general worthlessness if book isn't a hit make the risks too much. so, maybe someone goes out on a limb and buys 20 copies of some book or some shop takes a chance and buys an extra 30. my old LCS, which was a tiny hole in the wall with about 150 square foot of store and 300 square feet of basement storage on a one-way side street, bought 2,000 copies of X-Men 1 (1000 gatefolds and 1000 of the other covers), 500 copies of Wolverine 50, Darkhawk 1, Turok 1, etc.. he was trying to unload them at 25 cents each a year later. that kind of behavior will result in a bubble bursting.

 

sure, some vintage stuff seems to get jacked up very quickly, but then again, a lot of this stuff had languished for years.

 

the 9.8 craze has calmed itself down, but that is a very different animal than some hot new title.

 

variants are something else i suppose, but at least the numbers are limited. why folks keep paying huge premiums to be the first on their block to own one is beyond me.

[the blob]

Peter panzerfaust has garnered cult status...it's no longer about a tv show. Though that was certainly a launching point. Print run on #1 is lower than Chew #1 and #2 is even lower. And there's people buying it that have actually read the comic, and, enjoy it.

No 1 year old comic is worth over $400 for a 9.8. It's tv hype.

This will keep happening with every book that a network is sniffing around until the bottom falls out of the market and people think how could I have been so deluded to think 'insert short run image comic' could be worth so much so soon

I'm still mad about The Walking Dead #1s prices.I mean I want one,but I sure as hell don't want to pay a grand to get it.

Why do you want one?

I like the run,and wish I had gotten on it from the start.There's just so many books that are more important to get at this point.

I liked the book, but no interest in collecting it.

 

It seems anyone can make money on these hot titles. I have a few moderns I have purchased in the past three years that are now worth 3-10 times cover and higher and I don't buy many modem books.

 

So at this point it is mostly dumb luck and you don't even need much of that because so many books are hyped.

 

Joe Kennedy once sold all his stock after recieveing a stock tip from the boy who shines his shoes when asked why he replied:

 

 

“”You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over.

—[1]

 

 

Problem is, nobody seems to remembers the ones that didn't gain traction or didn't pop price wise. I see tons of Image #1s in the dollar box. They didn't all take off -- Haunt 1, Britt 1, Murderland 1, etc. the list goes on and on. Honestly, I think if you bought every image #1 that has come out since Skullkickers you probably lost money (unless you happened to have slabbed 9.8s of some of the biggies). And, basically, if you bought a braod selection of Marvels, DCs, Darkhorse and Dynamite you would have been S.O.L. despite a few of the "New 52" books doing well.

[the blob]

That bloody ASM #700 DITKO variant is a case in point.

 

 

 

 

And to show how absolutely silly the entire ASM 700 thing is,

 

I just bought a gorgeous slabbed AF 15 for 30% LESS than that slabbed ASM 700 signed by Stan Lee got a couple of weeks ago.

 

That's how you know somethings fudged up in funny book town.

 

Nice! (thumbs u

 

It seems this is happening regularly, and on a daily basis in the sports card hobby. New autographed/jersey/hard signed/refractor/etc. cards are being opened from packs and hyped as a get rich quick scheme. Sadly, if you walk into a shop and show them any vintage HOF or RC's, they won't even look at them. Forget about how the hobby shows and promotions side has dwindled, but I just can't wrap my head around how a hobby can sustain itself on "manufactured" collectibles.

 

It's the bizarro opposite of how the comic hobby gravitates to back issue "keys" or the tendency to glorify the throwback era of where/when characters appearing in films first originated. As bad as it seems to find a few people making it rain with the ASM 700 or WD craze, I'd be far more concerned as a collector of sport cards with the long-term health of that hobby.

 

I am befuddled by who is paying this kind of money for that book. How many were printed?

[the blob]

That bloody ASM #700 DITKO variant is a case in point.

 

And to show how absolutely silly the entire ASM 700 thing is,

 

I just bought a gorgeous slabbed AF 15 for 30% LESS than that slabbed ASM 700 signed by Stan Lee got a couple of weeks ago.

 

That's how you know somethings fudged up in funny book town.

 

Nice! (thumbs u

 

It seems this is happening regularly, and on a daily basis in the sports card hobby. New autographed/jersey/hard signed/refractor/etc. cards are being opened from packs and hyped as a get rich quick scheme. Sadly, if you walk into a shop and show them any vintage HOF or RC's, they won't even look at them. Forget about how the hobby shows and promotions side has dwindled, but I just can't wrap my head around how a hobby can sustain itself on "manufactured" collectibles.

 

It's the bizarro opposite of how the comic hobby gravitates to back issue "keys" or the tendency to glorify the throwback era of where/when characters appearing in films first originated. As bad as it seems to find a few people making it rain with the ASM 700 or WD craze, I'd be far more concerned as a collector of sport cards with the long-term health of that hobby.

 

I NEVER see those rare insert cards selling at my local comic/card shop. I do see lots of people buying the $100+ packs, but if they or the store hit the jackpot it goes straight to ebay. I don't see them selling too much high end vintage stuff out of the display either though. The 50 cent - $1 cards from the 50s - 70s sell pretty well though.