HG silver keys softening?

[tth2]

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

If we are going to qualify Filter's response in this way then we really need to qualify every response.

Good point. In the interest of full disclosure so everyone will know how to interpret anything I say, I'm a lawyer, so there's a high probability that whatever you hear from me is false or at best a distortion of the truth.

[blazingbob]

More likely that you can physically charge more hours then are in one day.

 

 

[The-Collector]

Instead of looking for market reports,just enjoy your comics.To hell with movie hype,and stock fluctuations.I find I'm alot happier when I don't think about what's the next movie,or which one will go up in value because of it.

 

 

It's quite freeing really.

 

Oak, for me part of the collecting fun is the money. Can I get a good deal? Did I overpay? Is my book worth more now than I paid five years ago. I get lots of pleasure from trying to answer these questions. Even when I am wrong!

 

That being said, I never spend more than I can afford to lose and I only buy books I like (I never chase hot books). So if they all turn out to be worth nothing it doesn't matter.

[The-Collector]

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

If we are going to qualify Filter's response in this way then we really need to qualify every response.

Good point. In the interest of full disclosure so everyone will know how to interpret anything I say, I'm a lawyer, so there's a high probability that whatever you hear from me is false or at best a distortion of the truth.

 

+1

[G.A.tor]

Wanna buy my 7.5?

 

i just bought an 8.0 but at the right price I absolutely would buy a 7.5 (thumbs u

[ItsJustRyan]

Good thread

[vader2001]

Are the prices on high grade silver mega keys heading downwards? What do you think the outlook is for the nosebleed books?

 

Was Doug Schmell Cashing out because he saw the market heading down hill?

 

There were a number of other non-market related factors that played into that decision

 

Will the rise in equity markets mean less capital is put into collectibles?

 

I have personally been noticing plenty of new money coming into the hobby. Don't think this is a problem.

 

Have the mega keys and pressing made high grade examples too available ?

 

Yes

 

Does the rise of digital comics represent the end of funny book collecting?

 

No

 

 

 

 

So the outlook is good?

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

 

So if I can take two things away from this post its that:

 

1) All dealers are liars if it suits them to do so

 

and

 

2) you didn't actually read my post to reach that conclusion.

 

All I did was answer four questions.

 

1) I don't believe market conditions was the main factor behind Doug selling his collection when he did. I believe there were some personal reasons involved.

 

2) I've seen no evidence that the rise in equity markets has had any effect on comic book collecting whatsoever, and have sold some big books to "new" money in recent months.

 

3) I do think the widespread ability to press books is making mega keys too available in high grade.

 

4) and I don't think digital comic collecting is going to destroy the hobby.

 

But then again, I'm a dealer so you probably shouldn't trust me...

 

I agree with you on almost everything you stated, but the first one. And I will not disagree because I do not know who he is. I would have assumed he sold his collection because he wanted the $$.

[Murphman13]

I look at the current situation with HG silvers about the same with the housing bubble burst, minus all the outside politcal factors involved. Right now there is a tug of war going on that I can relate to his example.

 

A man buys a waterfront beach house for 400K in 2001. As the real estate market explodes he sees the FMV increase to 1.8 million by the end of '07. Much of that increase was (as most of us would agree) overinflated by all kinds of situations at the time which isn't the point I'm trying to make here. The point I am trying to make is that this guy decides to sell the house in '10 and thinks that even with the bubble burst, there is no way he should get less than 1.6 for the house. The market and all potential buyers think otherwise. Then it becomes a chess match when the best offer on the table is for 900k and the buyer has 1.5-1.6 stuck on the brain.

 

The same could be said of a slabbed 8.5 FF#1. If FMV in '02 says it is about a 22k book (I'm guessing here) then there are auction sales of similar copies for $100k in '09 and 105k in '10, with prices softening what is the price today? The owner would probably say no lower than 95K but the buyers are thinking 70k. And so the chess match begins. For the owner who has 20k cost in the book, 70k may be doable. For the owner who bought it from Heritage and has over $115k cost in it including fees, I think we all know what he is thinking.

[Hepcat]

Good point. In the interest of full disclosure so everyone will know how to interpret anything I say, I'm a lawyer, so there's a high probability that whatever you hear from me is false or at best a distortion of the truth.

 

But aren't you under oath to tell the truth in court?

 

[namisgr]

Good point. In the interest of full disclosure so everyone will know how to interpret anything I say, I'm a lawyer, so there's a high probability that whatever you hear from me is false or at best a distortion of the truth.

 

But aren't you under oath to tell the truth in court?

 

 

Only the witnesses that he badgers.

[sacentaur]

I for one am glad to have trusted sellers (e.g., Filter81 and blazingbob) share their informed opinions on the Board. After all, it's their business to know the market, much better than my in the bleachers view.

 

I don't consider HG Silver keys at all for three reasons: soft grading, high prices, and manipulation.

[Spiderphill]

I for one am glad to have trusted sellers (e.g., Filter81 and blazingbob) share their informed opinions on the Board. After all, it's their business to know the market, much better than my in the bleachers view.

 

I don't consider HG Silver keys at all for three reasons: soft grading, high prices, and manipulation.

Smart, you cant be caught holding the hot potato if you don't play catch with it.

[MrBedrock]

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

If we are going to qualify Filter's response in this way then we really need to qualify every response.

Good point. In the interest of full disclosure so everyone will know how to interpret anything I say, I'm a lawyer, so there's a high probability that whatever you hear from me is false or at best a distortion of the truth.

HA! I knew it! ( Though, as a dealer, I should qualify that by saying I was pretty sure I knew it but had to pay a third party to verify my thought.)

[jimjum12]

...... I'm not a dealer, but as far as I can see.... none of my keys are softening... they're as firm as ever. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[oakman29]

...... I'm not a dealer, but as far as I can see.... none of my keys are softening... they're as firm as ever. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

Sig. line material.

[The-Collector]

...... I'm not a dealer, but as far as I can see.... none of my keys are softening... they're as firm as ever. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

[Bomber-Bob]

I don't consider HG Silver keys at all for three reasons: soft grading, high prices, and manipulation.

 

With the exception of a very loose grading period of recent past, I always thought CGC was a bit tougher on keys. I totally agree with you on the manipulation aspects. This manipulation is more than just a simple pressing. Staple tears tucked, impact chips removed and made to look bindery, edges trimmed with a nail clipper, and of course spine realignment. These things scare me more than the price.

[VintageComics]

[ I have to qualify to Tim that I'm a dealer now - ]

 

 

As explained by others, Doug Schmell cashed in for various personal reasons.

 

----------

 

I can't accurately answer the correlation between equity markets but by my observations comics have historically fared well in tough times.

 

It seems to me that when people want to hide money from the markets (tough times) keys do really well (the wealthy have money to spend even in tough times) and when markets are strong comics in general do well because people are making money and have extra money to spend for enjoyment.

 

I realize that me saying comics fare well in tough times and that they do well when the markets are strong might seem like a contradiction but I think most people realize that I mean that they don't drop off completely like the stock market in tough times (market retention) and sales over all will increase when people have more disposable income.

 

Analyzing whether keys are soft or not is going to be relative to your perspective (or the time frame) you are choosing to analyze.

 

If you're using GPA from month to month, you're going to see some volatility but that's no different than watching the stock market with a magnifying glass. It's not going to give you a balanced picture.

 

If you look over the past year or two, there may have been a little softness in some areas but I wouldn't call it softness, I'd call it a cyclical correction as always happens. Even AF #15 corrected recently. Pull back a little further to maybe a decade and you'll see that it's an upward curve with possible a small correction in areas - which is always normal in any market.

 

As mentioned earlier, and this is something that often gets over looked when analyzing a market, lower to mid grades are selling very strong (I don't think anyone can dispute that) and seem to be holding steady or rising across the board. That in turn affects high grade prices as it builds support under them.

 

-------------

 

Pressing increases supply but books also get ruined, lost, damaged, forgotten about, stolen etc. And I too would agree that there seems to be a new wave of buyers coming into the market.

 

------------

 

In my opinion digital comics have a negligible effect on collecting. It's two different animals. It's like comparing attending a bar in your basement to a bar at the local pub. Two entirely different animals. People that collect generally love the paper in my opinion. You will lose a portion of those that are reading only, but you will also have digital readers also spill over into collecting the actual paper. In my opinion, the actual artifact always trumps a copy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ItsJustRyan]

My humble

 

In any market (housing, comics, etc.) you are always going to have old money leaving and new money coming in. The rates at which these things occur is variable (ie: old money may leave and new money may come in late, or old money may leave slowly and new money jumps in quickly). In any case, volatility and fluctuations occur.

 

When it comes to SA keys, I would hope that all of us are buying for (1) the collecting aspect and (2) as a l-o-n-g term investment (decades). On a long enough timeline, fluctuations are minimized and with hope (because nothing is certain) we will see a steady increase over time. Sharp shifts in any market are not optimal and generally lead to a sharp opposite reaction (ie: lots of people selling keys, price drops, good deals to be had, people jump on them, forces prices back up).

 

Once again, my humble

[peewee22]

[ I have to qualify to Tim that I'm a dealer now - ]

 

 

As explained by others, Doug Schmell cashed in for various personal reasons.

 

----------

 

I can't accurately answer the correlation between equity markets but by my observations comics have historically fared well in tough times.

 

It seems to me that when people want to hide money from the markets (tough times) keys do really well (the wealthy have money to spend even in tough times) and when markets are strong comics in general do well because people are making money and have extra money to spend for enjoyment.

 

I realize that me saying comics fare well in tough times and that they do well when the markets are strong might seem like a contradiction but I think most people realize that I mean that they don't drop off completely like the stock market in tough times (market retention) and sales over all will increase when people have more disposable income.

 

Analyzing whether keys are soft or not is going to be relative to your perspective (or the time frame) you are choosing to analyze.

 

If you're using GPA from month to month, you're going to see some volatility but that's no different than watching the stock market with a magnifying glass. It's not going to give you a balanced picture.

 

If you look over the past year or two, there may have been a little softness in some areas but I wouldn't call it softness, I'd call it a cyclical correction as always happens. Even AF #15 corrected recently. Pull back a little further to maybe a decade and you'll see that it's an upward curve with possible a small correction in areas - which is always normal in any market.

 

As mentioned earlier, and this is something that often gets over looked when analyzing a market, lower to mid grades are selling very strong (I don't think anyone can dispute that) and seem to be holding steady or rising across the board. That in turn affects high grade prices as it builds support under them.

 

-------------

 

Pressing increases supply but books also get ruined, lost, damaged, forgotten about, stolen etc. And I too would agree that there seems to be a new wave of buyers coming into the market.

 

------------

 

In my opinion digital comics have a negligible effect on collecting. It's two different animals. It's like comparing attending a bar in your basement to a bar at the local pub. Two entirely different animals. People that collect generally love the paper in my opinion. You will lose a portion of those that are reading only, but you will also have digital readers also spill over into collecting the actual paper. In my opinion, the actual artifact always trumps a copy.

 

 

 

...and the smell of it too.