Walking Dead #1 Black Label vs White Label - an Answer! UPDATED 2/4/14 2 2

[N/A]

 

I would like to officially join the contest.

 

1) it is very likely that I have sold more WD #1's than anyone since Image.

2) I have seen a premium go both ways depending on which the buyer believed was more rare. This is a minority of buyers as can be seen by most auctions.

 

So we are in agreement. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

Except that you are in a thread about quantity and debating price.

[N/A]

Jaydogrules aka Mythbuster

 

[cbalroman]

Aliens!

[James J]

Aliens!

 

Wait!!!! I'm an ancient astronaut theorist.

[Jaydogrules]

Jaydogrules aka Mythbuster

 

 

Are you normally this needlessly hostile toward people who agree with you ?

 

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

With all due respect to bffnut's efforts, his analysis is deeply flawed and misleading.

 

There's only been about a half dozen copies of Walking Dead #1's of either label colour that have broached the $2300 mark in the last year. There is certainly no "average" sales price of $2300, regardless of the label colour, at least not for the last 24 months. And what colours were those few copies that realized at least $2300 ? Who knows. Bffnut's analysis doesn't include all of them, because he doesn't know.

 

I never stated that the price over the past year was $2300. That is an average of just black labels that are in my sample over about 2.5 years. I also stated that the average white label sold for $2,032.71, which, if you look at GPA, is really close the total average over the same period of time ($2,057.23). I never claimed to be looking at prices over the course of one year.

 

Point being, bffnut's sampling size is hopelessly incomplete, because he does not know and cannot know the break down of which sales had which colour label. No one knows that because CGC does not mention it on their labels. Because CGC doesn't care to mention it and they never will.

 

I do not think you understand what "sampling" means. By it's very definition, a sample is incomplete when compared to the population. The very reason why this thread exists is because we cannot know the population of black labels - not because CGC doesn't know (you assume they do not care), but because every strata in the line of production of the comic never thought to keep track of it.

 

"No one knows that because CGC does not mention it on their labels." Please realize that, even if CGC had kept track of label colors from day one, we wouldn't know the true population of black and white labels, because the census would still only be a sample of the population, as not every comic gets graded.

 

I suggest that you read up a little on statistics and sampling. While not perfect and not 100% representative of the population, it does give us a very close idea of it.

 

Further, if bffnut's analysis was truly legitimate, it should be observable in the marketplace at any given time, not just when he "believes" it should be present. Yet it is not.

 

The prices I posted are from GPA. While not representative of all markets, it does represent what is arguably the most active market (eBay). Prices fluctuate and change over time

 

 

I have, on multiple occasions, over a two year period shown that there is no price difference realized. I have linked to dozens of sales for direct comparison, all sales that have occurred within mere days of each other. Indeed, the best way to conduct such an analysis is in real time, with current sales data as all things and sales are more likely to be equal and more readily comparable. Right now on ebay comic link, etc there are a multitude of sales that show no price differences, not in any grade, slabbed or raw. And there certainly is not a "$300" price difference.

 

Further still, according to even bffnut's 2015 "averages", the white labels are selling for more. What does that mean ?

 

It means nothing.

 

I will agree that prices, as a whole, have gone down a bit over the past few years. That is why I included the averages over each year so people can look at trends. However, unless a book a swinging wildly in price, then you need to look beyond just the current data to find a long running average, to gather more data points. The current sales do not always tell the whole story, especially when you can only look a back a month or two like eBay.

 

So we are also in agreement. At least from 2013 -now.

 

And we also agree that, according to your data for 2015- year to date, (as well as the most recently available data that I have cited) that the white labels have actually been selling for a bit more (not that that is indicative of anything meaningful either).

(thumbs u

 

What were we supposed to be debating again ?

 

-J.

[N/A]

Jaydogrules aka Mythbuster

 

 

Are you normally this needlessly hostile toward people who agree with you ?

 

-J.

 

You're right. I suppose there's no cure for crazy.

[N/A]

With all due respect to bffnut's efforts, his analysis is deeply flawed and misleading.

 

There's only been about a half dozen copies of Walking Dead #1's of either label colour that have broached the $2300 mark in the last year. There is certainly no "average" sales price of $2300, regardless of the label colour, at least not for the last 24 months. And what colours were those few copies that realized at least $2300 ? Who knows. Bffnut's analysis doesn't include all of them, because he doesn't know.

 

I never stated that the price over the past year was $2300. That is an average of just black labels that are in my sample over about 2.5 years. I also stated that the average white label sold for $2,032.71, which, if you look at GPA, is really close the total average over the same period of time ($2,057.23). I never claimed to be looking at prices over the course of one year.

 

Point being, bffnut's sampling size is hopelessly incomplete, because he does not know and cannot know the break down of which sales had which colour label. No one knows that because CGC does not mention it on their labels. Because CGC doesn't care to mention it and they never will.

 

I do not think you understand what "sampling" means. By it's very definition, a sample is incomplete when compared to the population. The very reason why this thread exists is because we cannot know the population of black labels - not because CGC doesn't know (you assume they do not care), but because every strata in the line of production of the comic never thought to keep track of it.

 

"No one knows that because CGC does not mention it on their labels." Please realize that, even if CGC had kept track of label colors from day one, we wouldn't know the true population of black and white labels, because the census would still only be a sample of the population, as not every comic gets graded.

 

I suggest that you read up a little on statistics and sampling. While not perfect and not 100% representative of the population, it does give us a very close idea of it.

 

Further, if bffnut's analysis was truly legitimate, it should be observable in the marketplace at any given time, not just when he "believes" it should be present. Yet it is not.

 

The prices I posted are from GPA. While not representative of all markets, it does represent what is arguably the most active market (eBay). Prices fluctuate and change over time

 

 

I have, on multiple occasions, over a two year period shown that there is no price difference realized. I have linked to dozens of sales for direct comparison, all sales that have occurred within mere days of each other. Indeed, the best way to conduct such an analysis is in real time, with current sales data as all things and sales are more likely to be equal and more readily comparable. Right now on ebay comic link, etc there are a multitude of sales that show no price differences, not in any grade, slabbed or raw. And there certainly is not a "$300" price difference.

 

Further still, according to even bffnut's 2015 "averages", the white labels are selling for more. What does that mean ?

 

It means nothing.

 

I will agree that prices, as a whole, have gone down a bit over the past few years. That is why I included the averages over each year so people can look at trends. However, unless a book a swinging wildly in price, then you need to look beyond just the current data to find a long running average, to gather more data points. The current sales do not always tell the whole story, especially when you can only look a back a month or two like eBay.

 

So we are also in agreement. At least from 2013 -now.

 

And we also agree that, according to your data for 2015- year to date, (as well as the most recently available data that I have cited) that the white labels have actually been selling for a bit more (not that that is indicative of anything meaningful either).

(thumbs u

 

What were we supposed to be debating again ?

 

-J.

 

Perhaps reading would help you answer your own question?

[cbalroman]

This thread make me smile.

[Jaydogrules]

I feel compelled to do an analysis of price differentiation...

 

Please do. See what I see.

 

-J.

 

 

Year 2015

 

Labels Average of Price

white $1,990.44

black $1,985.33

Grand Total $1,989.17

 

 

Reading !

 

 

-J.

[rjrjr]

I feel compelled to do an analysis of price differentiation...

 

Please do. See what I see.

 

-J.

 

 

Year 2015

 

Labels Average of Price

white $1,990.44

black $1,985.33

Grand Total $1,989.17

 

 

Reading !

 

 

-J.

 

But I thought you wrote bffnut's "analysis is deeply flawed and misleading." Now you are using his analysis. I don't get it.

 

So the last 4 or 5 pages didn't happen and you've agreed with bffnut's conclusion the whole time?

Edited July 31, 2015 by rjrjr

[Jaydogrules]

I feel compelled to do an analysis of price differentiation...

 

Please do. See what I see.

 

-J.

 

 

Year 2015

 

Labels Average of Price

white $1,990.44

black $1,985.33

Grand Total $1,989.17

 

 

Reading !

 

 

-J.

 

But I thought you wrote bffnut's "analysis is deeply flawed and misleading." Now you are using his analysis. I don't get it.

 

It is, and I'm not using it for anything. Although, as I said in a prior post, we are actually in agreement from at least 2013-now, and certainly from 2015-now, ie that there is no significant or consistent price difference observed in the marketplace either way. I have literally been making the identical point from the beginning. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[jjeanius]

I feel compelled to do an analysis of price differentiation...

 

Please do. See what I see.

 

-J.

 

 

Year 2015

 

Labels Average of Price

white $1,990.44

black $1,985.33

Grand Total $1,989.17

 

 

SELECTIVE Reading !

 

 

-J.

 

FTFY! (thumbs u

[HarveySwick]

You guys are not going to win an argument with him.

 

 

Listen, and understand! That Terminator JayDog is out there! It He can't be bargained with. It He can't be reasoned with It And it he absolutely will not stop, ever..

[Jaydogrules]

I feel compelled to do an analysis of price differentiation...

 

Please do. See what I see.

 

-J.

 

 

Year 2015

 

Labels Average of Price

white $1,990.44

black $1,985.33

Grand Total $1,989.17

 

 

SELECTIVE Reading !

 

 

-J.

 

FTFY! (thumbs u

 

Doesn't change what it says though, now does it?

 

-J.

[jjeanius]

I feel compelled to do an analysis of price differentiation...

 

Please do. See what I see.

 

-J.

 

 

Year 2015

 

Labels Average of Price

white $1,990.44

black $1,985.33

Grand Total $1,989.17

 

 

SELECTIVE Reading !

 

 

-J.

 

FTFY! (thumbs u

 

Doesn't change what it says though, now does it?

 

-J.

 

I love the way you deftly select one juicy apple from the whole bunch and take a big bite out of it while in the same sentence calling the whole bunch of apples rotten. It really is an art form. You really should be in politics.

[manetteska]

[Jaydogrules]

7

You guys are not going to win an argument with him.

 

 

Listen, and understand! That Terminator JayDog is out there! It He can't be bargained with. It He can't be reasoned with It And it he absolutely will not stop, ever..

 

You guys are hilarious. Fighting this long and this hard, trying so desperately to cleave to the notion that, on a good day, your walking dead 1 with a black "mature readers" label instead of a white one, "might" go for an extra fifty bucks. Truly, hilarious, especially considering some of the monster books most of you own that actually do make people drool with envy.

 

-J.

[retrothecollector]

Yea like that af15 you got. I'll give you my white label for it.

[James J]

Yea like that af15 you got. I'll give you my white label for it.

 

You can only get that with a black label...