High grade non-keys losing value?

[Flex Mentallo]

As I have been talking about over in general, the rash of new undetectable resto has pushed the your old highest graded 9.4 to 3 plus and a new 9.6.

 

Only the cream top books are safe and sane now.

 

Folks you just cannot afford to spend 20K on the supposed highest graded copies of a non cream book. You are gonna take a hit...big time

 

Because of a number of different factors, I am no longer in support of the blue, green and purple system. It encourages greedy money hungry non-comic book collectors to come up with a way to " beat the system by a couple of grades".

The system has to change in order to create price stability and the sanity of our comic book world. The following changes should occur over the next couple of years.

 

1- one color universal holder which authenticates the comic book as original

 

2- a 10 point grading system which subtracts for tape, repair,pressing, face jobbing,and staple replacement. and any other alteration done to the book.

 

3-a comic book repair alert system which informs all members of undetectable restoration which has been discovered or suspected. Direct email, etc

 

4- the restoration of sanity both in terms of a reduction of greed as collectors, and a solid base of constant returns so that your kids are not left holding 50% of what you paid minus the 10% to 20% auction fees....leaving about 1/3 or what you invested or bought it for.

 

 

reduce the greed of collectors (while ensuring constant returns, that should work)

 

"fink" on books with "suspected" repairs (even if they can't be detected) (that wouldn't be used to "talk down" others' books, nope, not at all)

 

"non cream book" - I love it

 

As we all know, cream rises to the bottom.

[Flex Mentallo]

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

That's not collector psychology, that's just the reality that the vast majority of people are full of BS and will back down when they're asked to put their money where their mouth is.

 

You got me!

[Sqeggs]

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

That's not collector psychology, that's just the reality that the vast majority of people are full of BS and will back down when they're asked to put their money where their mouth is.

 

I back down even sooner than that!

[gino2paulus2]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

That's an interesting observation. Another trend, though, is that today's geeks, which I assume are one of the most likely demographics to become future collectors, will grow up to higher incomes than for any generation before them. I am living proof of that happening already.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]

There are many factors that either directly or indirectly impact market stability. Some are obvious; others, more elusive. I doubt that anyone can predict with certainty where things are headed, but these indicators seem relevant (opinions welcomed):

 

1. Artificially inflated auction prices skew market values. Surcharges (buyer premiums) and dueling bidders inflate the value of collectibles to unrealistic proportions which may not be reflected in subsequent auction/private sales of similar books & grades over a short period of time. This may contribute to a false perception of downward trending.

 

2. OS Price Guide, CGC census and GPA. These are all useful tools, but none provide uniformly accurate information except in the abstract. OS tends to be conservative (slow to change) and fails to take into account the value of rarer books which don't occur in higher grades (also, no guidance is provided above 9.2), the CGC census has only marginal accuracy as raw resubs w/o labels can be counted two or more times leaving misleading duplications in the census, and GPA misses many private sales & C-Link auction results limiting it's usefulness for tracking trends and negotiating fair prices.

 

3. Crack & press resubmission. This complicates evaluating HG book values with any consistency as speculators roll the dice repeatedly seeking an elusive grade bump. It also has the potential for destabilizing top end market values, not to mention placing fragile books at risk. Note: I'm not opposed to pressing for legitimate grade reevaluation, but this should be used sparingly on a case by case basis. Some books should never be pressed, much less repressed, and I'm sure we can all point to examples of books that have suffered irreparable damage from the process.

 

4. Reliable restoration determination and acceptance. In one sense I agree with Mitch that undetected restoration can have a devastating impact on comic values and trust, but I have a different view on how to address this issue. I see comics from the perspective of the more sophisticated antiquities trade (maps, old manuscripts, rare books, historical documents and miscellaneous aging paper ephemera), with the value of restored books being a much greater percentage of unrestored values than accepted today. IOW, in addition to reliable detection the collecting community needs to be better educated that professionally restored books aren't recyclable boat anchors.

 

5. Other variables that continue to influence comic markets:

 

>>>>> A. Movies - Popular superhero flicks provide momentum and fuel speculation. This is especially true of successful franchises, but across the board the collector market is buoyed by the general Public's continued fascination with superheroes.

 

>>>>> B. New collectors entering the market and GA relevance - This is an unpredictable factor, but given the nature of the hobby and tendency among many SA-Modern collectors to move beyond their comfort zones into rarer GA collectibles there seems little to worry about in the near term.

 

>>>>> C. Reboots and changing trends (digital vs paper, etc.) - Another unpredictable factor, but not one that would necessarily impact the desirability of owning older, rarer, uniquely fragile paper collectibles.

 

>>>>> D. Economic factors - Overall, the recession had negligible impact on GA book values as at least one HG pedigree collection and several smaller collections reached the market under tough economic conditions and were easily absorbed.

 

>>>>> E. Reprints - HC and soft-cover archival editions keep the GA & SA alive fueling fan interest in the more desirable originals.

 

From my POV collectors should take the long view perspective rather than stressing over short term gains or loses. Some trends are obvious, others defy prediction and are impacted by as few as two or three deep pocket investors entering the market with an agenda (such as competition over the acquisition of specific pedigrees or highest graded copies).

 

Given the fact that we're just entering a period of economic recovery, it's too soon to predict any trends in respect to high, middle or low grade books based upon prices realized ten years ago when CGC was still gaining momentum and acceptance, let alone at the height of the recession when things should've been much shakier market-wise. My (and a bit more). [/font]

 

Plain and simple...I just enjoy reading what you have to say sir!!! (thumbs u very poetic and intelligible smart man well put!!!

[originalisbest]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

That's an interesting observation. Another trend, though, is that today's geeks, which I assume are one of the most likely demographics to become future collectors, will grow up to higher incomes than for any generation before them. I am living proof of that happening already.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]

There are many factors that either directly or indirectly impact market stability. Some are obvious; others, more elusive. I doubt that anyone can predict with certainty where things are headed, but these indicators seem relevant (opinions welcomed):

 

1. Artificially inflated auction prices skew market values. Surcharges (buyer premiums) and dueling bidders inflate the value of collectibles to unrealistic proportions which may not be reflected in subsequent auction/private sales of similar books & grades over a short period of time. This may contribute to a false perception of downward trending.

 

2. OS Price Guide, CGC census and GPA. These are all useful tools, but none provide uniformly accurate information except in the abstract. OS tends to be conservative (slow to change) and fails to take into account the value of rarer books which don't occur in higher grades (also, no guidance is provided above 9.2), the CGC census has only marginal accuracy as raw resubs w/o labels can be counted two or more times leaving misleading duplications in the census, and GPA misses many private sales & C-Link auction results limiting it's usefulness for tracking trends and negotiating fair prices.

 

3. Crack & press resubmission. This complicates evaluating HG book values with any consistency as speculators roll the dice repeatedly seeking an elusive grade bump. It also has the potential for destabilizing top end market values, not to mention placing fragile books at risk. Note: I'm not opposed to pressing for legitimate grade reevaluation, but this should be used sparingly on a case by case basis. Some books should never be pressed, much less repressed, and I'm sure we can all point to examples of books that have suffered irreparable damage from the process.

 

4. Reliable restoration determination and acceptance. In one sense I agree with Mitch that undetected restoration can have a devastating impact on comic values and trust, but I have a different view on how to address this issue. I see comics from the perspective of the more sophisticated antiquities trade (maps, old manuscripts, rare books, historical documents and miscellaneous aging paper ephemera), with the value of restored books being a much greater percentage of unrestored values than accepted today. IOW, in addition to reliable detection the collecting community needs to be better educated that professionally restored books aren't recyclable boat anchors.

 

5. Other variables that continue to influence comic markets:

 

>>>>> A. Movies - Popular superhero flicks provide momentum and fuel speculation. This is especially true of successful franchises, but across the board the collector market is buoyed by the general Public's continued fascination with superheroes.

 

>>>>> B. New collectors entering the market and GA relevance - This is an unpredictable factor, but given the nature of the hobby and tendency among many SA-Modern collectors to move beyond their comfort zones into rarer GA collectibles there seems little to worry about in the near term.

 

>>>>> C. Reboots and changing trends (digital vs paper, etc.) - Another unpredictable factor, but not one that would necessarily impact the desirability of owning older, rarer, uniquely fragile paper collectibles.

 

>>>>> D. Economic factors - Overall, the recession had negligible impact on GA book values as at least one HG pedigree collection and several smaller collections reached the market under tough economic conditions and were easily absorbed.

 

>>>>> E. Reprints - HC and soft-cover archival editions keep the GA & SA alive fueling fan interest in the more desirable originals.

 

From my POV collectors should take the long view perspective rather than stressing over short term gains or loses. Some trends are obvious, others defy prediction and are impacted by as few as two or three deep pocket investors entering the market with an agenda (such as competition over the acquisition of specific pedigrees or highest graded copies).

 

Given the fact that we're just entering a period of economic recovery, it's too soon to predict any trends in respect to high, middle or low grade books based upon prices realized ten years ago when CGC was still gaining momentum and acceptance, let alone at the height of the recession when things should've been much shakier market-wise. My (and a bit more). [/font]

 

Plain and simple...I just enjoy reading what you have to say sir!!! (thumbs u very poetic and intelligible smart man well put!!!

 

Agree, a very thoughtful post from Cat!

[conditionfreak]

Are the majority of collectible comic books, more valuable now than they previously were? (disregard modern and copper drek)

 

Why would that not continue?

 

True, there are not many kids collecting anything these days. But there are many young adults collecting stuff. Everything from Transformers to Cards. Those young adults could have 40-55 years of collecting ahead of them. History says those non-collecting kids of today, will be collecting when they get jobs. Guaranteed. Always have and always will.

 

If I am wrong. Let's see how much prices drop on these very sale pages. I see no sign of anything but ridiculous asking prices for pretty common books. Most sell, albeit after a PM or two. Put up a modern New Mutants #98 in 9.4 or 9.6 here, and watch the money flow to you. Not a fortune. But a lot of money, for a modern and common book.

 

Seriously. Some of you pay hundreds of dollars for a modern GFT book? A modern Playboy will cost you a lot less, and they have pictures of actual real women in them.

 

Just a suggestion.

[originalisbest]

GFT book?

[conditionfreak]

Grimm Fairy Tales (hot girly covers)

 

http://www.comicvine.com/grimm-fairy-tales/4050-19824/

[ComicConnoisseur]

Most of the golden age characters aren`t relevant anymore with today`s mainstream audience.

Perfect examples are they gave Green Hornet, The Spirit, John Carter and the Lone Ranger blockbuster movies, and they had mediocre results at best.

If they had mediocre results after having big movies,then what chance does b characters like Hourman,Starman and similar characters have?

Even once big players like Flash Gordon and Buck Rogers have faded.

That`s why I am glad Superman and Captain America have hit homeruns with their movies or they to would have been joining the likes of Tracy and Lil Abner in trying to win popularity tests.

btw I am not knocking golden age characters. I have read the DC Archives and Marvel Masterworks and enjoyed them. Unfortunately most of their fans for these characters from their heyday are either passed on or have retired.

Other perfect examples of this are Roy Rogers who is my father`s favorite, Gene Autry and Hopalong Cassiday. Even ten years ago they still were somewhat of a force, but now?

[ComicConnoisseur]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

Those and duck books.

I thought duck books peaked at just the right time!

If Disney ever decided to bring back a new version of Duck Tales on the Disney channel, then I would I wonder what affect that would have on the Barks market?

 

[Sqeggs]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

Those and duck books.

I thought duck books peaked at just the right time!

If Disney ever decided to bring back a new version of Duck Tales on the Disney channel, then I would I wonder what affect that would have on the Barks market?

 

 

Did they ever explain why Donald isn't present in Duck Tales? At least, he never was in the episodes I watched years ago with my kids.

[damonwad]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

Those and duck books.

I thought duck books peaked at just the right time!

If Disney ever decided to bring back a new version of Duck Tales on the Disney channel, then I would I wonder what affect that would have on the Barks market?

 

 

Did they ever explain why Donald isn't present in Duck Tales? At least, he never was in the episodes I watched years ago with my kids.

I watched a few episodes with my nephew a year or so ago and kind of remember them showing Donald go off on some Naval ship.

My 7 year old nephew and 5 year old niece absolutely love these.

[originalisbest]

Grimm Fairy Tales (hot girly covers)

 

http://www.comicvine.com/grimm-fairy-tales/4050-19824/

 

Ah, thanks! I didn't know whatcha meant.

[Johnny545]

If Disney ever decided to bring back a new version of Duck Tales on the Disney channel, then I would I wonder what affect that would have on the Barks market?

 

I think a good rule of thumb is that if you can't imagine gen x or gen y buying these books down the road than there is no market for them in 10-20 yrs.

 

A cartoon reboot won't change this dynamic.

 

[Buzzetta]

I believe that the "Big Three" (Superman, Batman and Spider-man) will stand at least for another 25 years.

 

 

[mintcollector]

There are a lot of great points being made here; much more so than what is being said in other areas of this same forum where 'speculators' want to believe that prices will never fall and late bronze and copper age books will increase in value like gold and silver age books have. I see very few younger collectors getting into comic books at all. As I said in earlier posts I made, I think it is time for characters like Spider-Man, Superman, and Batman to be looked at as 'multimedia characters' and not comic book characters. The original media they appeared in no longer matters. Most children today were introduced to these characters via cartoons, movies, and video games; not comic books. As such, they do not have the same connection to the original medium like we do.

 

There are a lot of items that will not be as sought after by later generations as they are now. For instance, I see very few new collectors chasing after PEZ dispensers and Atari video games. The generations who grew up coveting these items are moving on and not enough new collectors are coming into these perspective markets. After all, what would be a catalyst to drive demand to these items? Simply being old and once popular is just not enough. 'Rule of 25 ' proponents take note.

 

 

[ciorac]

You guys always say that, yet I meet more and more 20-something GA and SA collectors all the time. So, rules be danged. If something is cool, fun to collect, read, enjoy, and perhaps even profit on, people will join in that fun.

[Gatsby77]

I believe in the "rule of 25" since I'm now of that age when my friends & I are spending money to recapture our youth--I'm talking not Artari, but orginial Nintendo games, Return of the Jedi carded figures (I was too young to buy the Star Wars or ESB ones so my nostalgia is with the later ones), or comics from 1987-1991 like the the early 400s Batman run or the McFarlane runs of Hulk or ASM.

 

But I really do wonder what the next decade will do to the Silver Age market as the first generation of SA collectors retires.

 

Some of those kids who bought Avengers 4 off the newsstand will turn 65 next year. Even if you figure folks now work until 70, it means the next 5 years will see an entire generation of original owner Silver Age collectors retire, and I can't help but think a bunch will sell their books, drastically increasing supply.

 

As I'm a generation younger, I'm happy to have access to these collections. Just remember that two years ago we saw both the Savannah & Twin Cities collections brought to market, as well as Doug Schmell's insane Marvel collection. As a collector, wouldn't it be awesome if we continued to see 3-4 such similar collections per year over the next 5 years?

 

But as an "investor" I can't help but worry that an increase in high-grade supply will tank prices.

[jimbo_707]

Are the majority of collectible comic books, more valuable now than they previously were? (disregard modern and copper drek)

 

 

Why would that not continue?

 

You posed a question but then assumed that the answer was yes. I don't entirely agree.

 

Most everything pre-modern is more valuable now than when it was on the newsstand and more valuable than it was when the hobby was in its infancy (early 70s let's say), but much GA material, like funny animal, western, humor, adventure, and even lesser-known super-hero books, is probably not worth more than it was 10 or 15 years ago, when that segment of the hobby was fully mature; if you factor in inflation, much of it is likely worth substantially less. So, certain things do seem to plateau.

 

I do think the major GA titles, especially Action and Tec, will continue to outplace inflation for the next few years, but most everything else (classic covers aside) will level off (and probably lose value when inflation is factored in) fairly soon.

 

When it comes to SA, Spider-Man's popularity has at least twenty years left, but since the supply of SA books is likely to increase (as another boardie just mentioned), prices on those books will likely level off as well.

[Flex Mentallo]

Are the majority of collectible comic books, more valuable now than they previously were? (disregard modern and copper drek)

 

 

Why would that not continue?

 

You posed a question but then assumed that the answer was yes. I don't entirely agree.

 

Most everything pre-modern is more valuable now than when it was on the newsstand and more valuable than it was when the hobby was in its infancy (early 70s let's say), but much GA material, like funny animal, western, humor, adventure, and even lesser-known super-hero books, is probably not worth more than it was 10 or 15 years ago, when that segment of the hobby was fully mature; if you factor in inflation, much of it is likely worth substantially less. So, certain things do seem to plateau.

 

I do think the major GA titles, especially Action and Tec, will continue to outplace inflation for the next few years, but most everything else (classic covers aside) will level off (and probably lose value when inflation is factored in) fairly soon.

 

When it comes to SA, Spider-Man's popularity has at least twenty years left, but since the supply of SA books is likely to increase (as another boardie just mentioned), prices on those books will likely level off as well.

 

Value is ephemeral. Buying for investment is more like a snake than a river.