Those Comics in Your Basement?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

 

I flip collections every hour of every day, 52 weeks a year, and have done so for 30 years. What's your point?

 

Then you should be pretty busy counting your millions, shouldn't you?

 

That's what accountants are for. Lucky for you I'm free to continue to entertain here with my sly wit and winning charm. Enjoy!

 

Actually, I've always enjoyed your contributions to these Boards. Nothing in this thread has changed my mind.

 

Now you're just after some of his millions.

 

Actually, I'm thinking adoption. I can be the Arnold to his Mr. Drummond.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

That is just it. I disagree with your 'why.'

 

Then you are wrong, and do not understand the market. You may find that statement abrupt, but it remains true nonetheless. My posts aren't about just ANY "speculative bubble", they are about this PARTICULAR speculative bubble, which, indeed, is a "one-and-done" event by definition. The census will never "start at zero" again, unless CGC were to go completely out of business.

 

There are several excellent articles I can recommend to you on this phenomenon, one being found here:

 

http://www.nationalsilverdollarroundtable.org/?p=920

 

...written within months of the crash, it is a wealth of information on the phenomenon of "low-population, high grade, $$$$."

 

Best to you.

[Bookery]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

 

I flip collections every hour of every day, 52 weeks a year, and have done so for 30 years. What's your point?

 

Then you should be pretty busy counting your millions, shouldn't you?

 

That's what accountants are for. Lucky for you I'm free to continue to entertain here with my sly wit and winning charm. Enjoy!

 

Actually, I've always enjoyed your contributions to these Boards. Nothing in this thread has changed my mind.

 

Now you're just after some of his millions.

 

 

(Of course, I never actually claimed to have said millions... merely that were I to have such, I would have accountants do that work for me. This is an important distinction that I want to make sure is quite clear for any IRS agents on this board to understand...)

 

 

[mintcollector]

The collectibles and antiques market unfortunately goes hand and hand with speculation. Some markets are affected by this more so than others; with toys and pop culture collectibles carrying the lion's share of speculators. Truth be told, every market is going to have its share of speculators (I don't care whether it is vintage advertising, Amphora Pottery, Tiffany Glass, Star Wars figures, or comic books). My points have always been to inform and allow others to view the market without the aura of 'rose colored glasses' as some would say. Are some markets ripe for investment? Of course, assuming you have the knowledge and know how to do it. I study books on antiques and collectibles on a daily basis. I read about final auction prices and follow the market for a vast majority of the items I collect, pursue, invest, and deal in. It takes a lot of work and time to gain the necessary knowledge needed to do this and quite honestly the average individual would be better off with a simple stock market index fund; not ASM #1. The overall future for comic book colleting is quite bleak in my opinion. Note that I am not talking about a 'quick flip' or a few years from now. I am talking about buying keys or semi key issues at today's prices and storing them away for ten to twenty years.

 

As talked about before on this forum (and I even provided another link in one of these threads to one or more articles written about this subject); when the vast majority of 'baby boomers' start selling off their collection the market is going to be engulfed in this stuff. With the amount of auctions we are already starting to see the overall market is started to be cannibalized. I no longer want a lot of the books I don't have. I can get them any time. I got a lot of angry PM's from certain forum members who were upset that I compared certain common high grade comic books to shopping at 'Wal*Mart.’ (this was in another thread). Unfortunately, that was the point I was trying to make and I stand by it. I can get Wolverine L.S #1 in CGC 9.8 any time I want on eBay or Comic Link. Calling it 'rare' or an 'investment' is a major miscalculation on the part of speculators. If you buy this comic book and relist it again at market price you will be competing against the same twenty to forty sellers who are selling this common as day book now. This is what is happening in the Lego speculator's market right now. People are asking why their discontinued sets from 2008 and 2009 are not worth money. My answer is always the same. Have you looked on eBay and noticed that close to seventy other sellers are selling the same factory sealed set? Why on earth would anyone pay an inflated price for yours? Still speculation continues. This is why I disagree when people tell me that this is some sort of abnormity or miscalculated logic. It is irrational and perverted postmodern consumerism at its finest. Only a fool would go to Toys R Us and fill up his cart and call it a future investment. Ironically that is exactly what is happening in certain markets right now.

[bababooey]

[mintcollector]

 

That is just it. I disagree with your 'why.'

 

Then you are wrong, and do not understand the market. You may find that statement abrupt, but it remains true nonetheless. My posts aren't about just ANY "speculative bubble", they are about this PARTICULAR speculative bubble, which, indeed, is a "one-and-done" event by definition. The census will never "start at zero" again, unless CGC were to go completely out of business.

 

There are several excellent articles I can recommend to you on this phenomenon, one being found here:

 

http://www.nationalsilverdollarroundtable.org/?p=920

 

...written within months of the crash, it is a wealth of information on the phenomenon of "low-population, high grade, $$$$."

 

Best to you.

 

 

 

Here is an excellent article of speculation within the collectibles market:

 

http://www.harryrinker.com/col-1210.html

 

This looks at 'American Girl' and brings up several points that apply to the market as a whole. Other articles have been written that are similar to this. Heck, those who do not read these articles on a weekly basis are unwise and bound to repeat the past.

 

To answer your statement directly; are you not assuming that the speculators back during the bronze age boom used the census as their guide? I am sorry, but a lot did not. I had conversations with collectors during this time who did not even know what CGC stood for, but were buying so called keys for investment. Much like the great coin market bubble a lot of these buyers were from outside the hobby who never returned after prices fell. Do you not think that prices are speculative right now? Anyone can look at the current census and surmise that a lot of books selling at extreme prices (i.e. Hulk #181) are nowhere near rare. I think we both agree on this. One of the reasons I question your statement on the census is because now more than ever the census is filling up due to the crack, press, and resubmit game.

 

Is 'best to you' supposed to be my version of 'kind regards'? (this is meant to be a joke because I didn't see you use it before we had this exchange)

 

Kind Regards,

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

The collectibles and antiques market unfortunately goes hand and hand with speculation. Some markets are affected by this more so than others; with toys and pop culture collectibles carrying the lion's share of speculators. Truth be told, every market is going to have its share of speculators (I don't care whether it is vintage advertising, Amphora Pottery, Tiffany Glass, Star Wars figures, or comic books). My points have always been to inform and allow others to view the market without the aura of 'rose colored glasses' as some would say. Are some markets ripe for investment? Of course, assuming you have the knowledge and know how to do it. I study books on antiques and collectibles on a daily basis. I read about final auction prices and follow the market for a vast majority of the items I collect, pursue, invest, and deal in. It takes a lot of work and time to gain the necessary knowledge needed to do this and quite honestly the average individual would be better off with a simple stock market index fund; not ASM #1. The overall future for comic book colleting is quite bleak in my opinion. Note that I am not talking about a 'quick flip' or a few years from now. I am talking about buying keys or semi key issues at today's prices and storing them away for ten to twenty years.

 

As talked about before on this forum (and I even provided another link in one of these threads to one or more articles written about this subject); when the vast majority of 'baby boomers' start selling off their collection the market is going to be engulfed in this stuff. With the amount of auctions we are already starting to see the overall market is started to be cannibalized. I no longer want a lot of the books I don't have. I can get them any time. I got a lot of angry PM's from certain forum members who were upset that I compared certain common high grade comic books to shopping at 'Wal*Mart.’ (this was in another thread). Unfortunately, that was the point I was trying to make and I stand by it. I can get Wolverine L.S #1 in CGC 9.8 any time I want on eBay or Comic Link. Calling it 'rare' or an 'investment' is a major miscalculation on the part of speculators. If you buy this comic book and relist it again at market price you will be competing against the same twenty to forty sellers who are selling this common as day book now. This is what is happening in the Lego speculator's market right now. People are asking why their discontinued sets from 2008 and 2009 are not worth money. My answer is always the same. Have you looked on eBay and noticed that close to seventy other sellers are selling the same factory sealed set? Why on earth would anyone pay an inflated price for yours? Still speculation continues. This is why I disagree when people tell me that this is some sort of abnormity or miscalculated logic. It is irrational and perverted postmodern consumerism at its finest. Only a fool would go to Toys R Us and fill up his cart and call it a future investment. Ironically that is exactly what is happening in certain markets right now.

 

I agree with you to some extent, but your example of Wolverine Limited 1 isn't the best. That book has nearly 1,800 copies on the census in 9.8 (Universal and SS), yet despite the inflated numbers, it still goes for $150-$200+ with regularity. Clearly, supply hasn't caught up with demand, even though both you and I know its as common as dirt. After 10+ years of CGC and GPA, you'd think that prices on that book would adjust significantly downward, but GPA lows and highs have remained very consistent in that time. Will it stay the same 10 years from now? I don't know, but 10 years ago, my first instinct would have been to tell you it would be a $50 book by now, and I would've been very wrong.

[Bookery]

I no longer want a lot of the books I don't have. I can get them any time. I got a lot of angry PM's from certain forum members who were upset that I compared certain common high grade comic books to shopping at 'Wal*Mart.’ (this was in another thread). Unfortunately, that was the point I was trying to make and I stand by it. I can get Wolverine L.S #1 in CGC 9.8 any time I want on eBay or Comic Link. Calling it 'rare' or an 'investment' is a major miscalculation on the part of speculators.

 

Having gotten into this occupation over 30 years ago, I am constantly amazed at the huge quantities of even silver-age keys that are out there. Besides Heritage's big auctions, there are weekly comics auctions of "lesser" items. I don't think a week goes by where there isn't one or two copies of Amazing Spider-Man #1 in these auctions... usually in 2.0 - 4.0 grade. That's in addition to the higher-grade copies that end up in their signature auctions. Maybe 100 copies a year turn up at just this one Auction House. That's on top of the numerous copies on eBay every day, as well as ComicLink, dealer sites, etc., etc. Now they keep bringing big dollars so far... in fact, ever inching upwards. But it's a pretty astonishing supply nevertheless. So I agree with your Wal-Mart analysis to this degree. If I want to pony up the average going rate, I can buy myself a Spidey#1, an AF #15, or pretty much any other SA key any day of the week. Every week.

 

That can't be said for a 1st edition Tarzan of the Apes in dust-jacket, or a Honus Wagner T-whatever, or a Casablanca one-sheet.

 

Comics may not be unique, but it is an unusual hobby in that its hottest and most valuable items tend to be rather common, and some of its rarest collectibles tend to not be worth very much by comparison.

 

[mintcollector]

The collectibles and antiques market unfortunately goes hand and hand with speculation. Some markets are affected by this more so than others; with toys and pop culture collectibles carrying the lion's share of speculators. Truth be told, every market is going to have its share of speculators (I don't care whether it is vintage advertising, Amphora Pottery, Tiffany Glass, Star Wars figures, or comic books). My points have always been to inform and allow others to view the market without the aura of 'rose colored glasses' as some would say. Are some markets ripe for investment? Of course, assuming you have the knowledge and know how to do it. I study books on antiques and collectibles on a daily basis. I read about final auction prices and follow the market for a vast majority of the items I collect, pursue, invest, and deal in. It takes a lot of work and time to gain the necessary knowledge needed to do this and quite honestly the average individual would be better off with a simple stock market index fund; not ASM #1. The overall future for comic book colleting is quite bleak in my opinion. Note that I am not talking about a 'quick flip' or a few years from now. I am talking about buying keys or semi key issues at today's prices and storing them away for ten to twenty years.

 

As talked about before on this forum (and I even provided another link in one of these threads to one or more articles written about this subject); when the vast majority of 'baby boomers' start selling off their collection the market is going to be engulfed in this stuff. With the amount of auctions we are already starting to see the overall market is started to be cannibalized. I no longer want a lot of the books I don't have. I can get them any time. I got a lot of angry PM's from certain forum members who were upset that I compared certain common high grade comic books to shopping at 'Wal*Mart.’ (this was in another thread). Unfortunately, that was the point I was trying to make and I stand by it. I can get Wolverine L.S #1 in CGC 9.8 any time I want on eBay or Comic Link. Calling it 'rare' or an 'investment' is a major miscalculation on the part of speculators. If you buy this comic book and relist it again at market price you will be competing against the same twenty to forty sellers who are selling this common as day book now. This is what is happening in the Lego speculator's market right now. People are asking why their discontinued sets from 2008 and 2009 are not worth money. My answer is always the same. Have you looked on eBay and noticed that close to seventy other sellers are selling the same factory sealed set? Why on earth would anyone pay an inflated price for yours? Still speculation continues. This is why I disagree when people tell me that this is some sort of abnormity or miscalculated logic. It is irrational and perverted postmodern consumerism at its finest. Only a fool would go to Toys R Us and fill up his cart and call it a future investment. Ironically that is exactly what is happening in certain markets right now.

 

I agree with you to some extent, but your example of Wolverine Limited 1 isn't the best. That book has nearly 1,800 copies on the census in 9.8 (Universal and SS), yet despite the inflated numbers, it still goes for $150-$200+ with regularity. Clearly, supply hasn't caught up with demand, even though both you and I know its as common as dirt. After 10+ years of CGC and GPA, you'd think that prices on that book would adjust significantly downward, but GPA lows and highs have remained very consistent in that time. Will it stay the same 10 years from now? I don't know, but 10 years ago, my first instinct would have been to tell you it would be a $50 book by now, and I would've been very wrong.

 

I see what you are saying, but we are talking for investment. As such, during that ten year period (and by your own admission) there is no gain. You would be better off in a money market fund.

This is kind of the point I am trying to make. It is a 'Wal*Mart' collectible. It can be bought anywhere, anytime, day or night...and competition is fierce when you sell. I even heard some analysts call it the ‘Amazon Syndrome.’ This is short for Amazon.com.

[oakman29]

Bubble shmubble.I pay the kind of money I do to enjoy my hobby,and thankfully there are more out there who think like me.I just hope that someday when I do decide to sell I get what I put into it,if not so what!

This is not the stock market,if this is how you think of your collection maybe this is the wrong hobby for you.

[Bookery]

Actually, I'm thinking adoption. I can be the Arnold to his Mr. Drummond.

 

This is a comics forum. We need to stay on topic!

That's Daddy Warbucks to your Annie, mister!

 

 

Wait.

That might come across wrong...

 

 

Make it Mr. Browlow to your Oliver Twist! (Classics Illustrated version, of course).

 

 

[mintcollector]

Bubble shmubble.I pay the kind of money I do to enjoy my hobby,and thankfully there are more out there who think like me.I just hope that someday when I do decide to sell I get what I put into it,if not so what!

This is not the stock market,if this is how you think of your collection maybe this is the wrong hobby for you.

 

Oakman, I hear what you are saying and that is exactly the point. I think Bookery said it best in his post below that was originally stated a few pages back:

 

The main point of the thread isn't about investment predictions, but in investment perceptions... primarily those held by the general public due to misinformed and misleading media reports. I suspect that if those same folks wandered onto these boards and skimmed a variety of threads, they would unfortunately find themselves similarly misinformed and misled.

 

 

Edited to add: I do believe that you would be able to sell your collection for more than what you paid (you have the knowledge). I do NOT believe that the average newbie would be able to without first buying a very expensive education in the market.

[VintageComics]

So basically, what the article is saying is that there are winners in every market, there are losers in every market and there are those that don't care in every market.

 

 

[Bookery]

Bubble shmubble.I pay the kind of money I do to enjoy my hobby,and thankfully there are more out there who think like me.I just hope that someday when I do decide to sell I get what I put into it,if not so what!

This is not the stock market,if this is how you think of your collection maybe this is the wrong hobby for you.

 

And a Halloween Booo! for you!

 

I've always recommended collectors collect for enjoyment. But... the thread was ignited by an investment story... and therefore I don't think it is unreasonable to comment on the investment angle since that is the subject at hand. The majority of my customers see it as an investment, unfortunately, as do most of the newcomers into the hobby. I think that's the concern some of us are expressing, actually.

 

(btw... it's easy to read the hard print in these posts as being overly serious or professorial... but the wife's out of town, it's windy and pouring the rain down outside, and I'm pretty bored. So I, at least, am posting with the mindset of shooting the breeze around the table with some fellow hobbyists, taking a few smiling jabs here and there, and basically having some fun interspersed with real concerns... so just remember to picture me smiling as I type my responses. Sure... it's a horrific image... but it is Halloween...)

 

[Prince Namor]

The majority of comics that people own are worthless, because the majority of comics that are printed are worthless.

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

So basically, what the article is saying is that there are winners in ever market, there are losers in every market and there are those that don't care in every market.

 

 

And the sky is blue, the grass is green, and news of the Titanic sinking will be breaking soon!

[Bookery]

Mark my words. Major Inapack's due for a resurgence. (thumbs u

 

[Bookery]

So basically, what the article is saying is that there are winners in ever market, there are losers in every market and there are those that don't care in every market.

 

 

The article's trying to say that the everyday public is considerably misformed about comics' marketability. It then veers off into some bad examples that aren't clarified.

 

On the other hand, in order to clarify those examples, the author would have to explain 9.8 and CGC and slabs and such that would confuse and lose the reader before the commentary even began. So I do understand the dilemma.

 

I'm surprised Bloomberg's even attempted the challenge. It's a lot easier to write stories about million dollar windfalls found stuffed in the walls of demo projects.

 

[VintageComics]

So basically, what the article is saying is that there are winners in ever market, there are losers in every market and there are those that don't care in every market.

 

 

The article's trying to say that the everyday public is considerably misformed about comics' marketability. It then veers off into some bad examples that aren't clarified.

 

 

Oh, I know exactly what the article is trying to say.

 

This same discussion can spin around any market in the world, though.

 

There are those that know, those that don't know and those that don't care.

 

End.

 

[Beige]

Isn't this about the time that Mr F'ingH makes an appearance?