Those Comics in Your Basement?

[Prince Namor]

Just saw this on St. Louis Craigslist, thought it was hilarious...posted as a single entry...

 

2. Ash comic book Event comics 4 July (Charlack )

Ash comic book in plastic wrap mint condition #4 1994

text me with your offer if you are interested

 

[Prince Namor]

Most comic books are a bad bet for investment or speculative purposes.

The "variant" books with different covers devaluate the newsstand editions. Comics are also a bad value for your entertainment dollar

You can walk into a comic store and see that the comics at $4.00 each.

Who wants to pay $8 bucks to read a half hour of the new 52?

I can get Netflix for $8 bucks a month.

I can go buy a video game for $9

Even most big comic books are a LOSING money bad bet.

Go buy a slabbed comic book for $1000,then try to sell that same book for $1000 the next week and you will have lost money to do auction fees, and ebay/paypal fees.

Three factors have fueled and have kept the comics will be valuable illusion alive.

CGC comics being pressed up a grade(biggest money maker by far.)

Movie hyped comics.

Walking Dead comics becoming a hit, so now everybody looks for another Walking Dead.

With all three factors slowly winding down now, plus most comic book fans reaching the average age of 50 with no new age fan base entering the market = prognosis of a future sell off like what happened in stamps. Most common comics will not be sellable or maybe will net 5 cents to 50 cents a piece.

Those AF 15s type comics won`t be walking thru that door!

Buy stocks or 529 plans if you want to pay for your children`s college.

Buy comics to read for entertainment value.

IMHO

 

I usually agree with most of your posts

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

 

If you want to make money in comics, learn to "flip" them (ie, a new word for the old word "dealer"). If you want to collect comics, collect and let the chips fall where they may. If you want to invest in comics... don't.

 

 

This. Flipping and investing are very different approaches. I flip houses for a living ( harder than the TV shows would lead you to believe) I'm not concerned with whether the house will be worth more or less than I sell it for a year from now, let alone a decade. I'm in it to make money of a given house within a few months of when I buy it based on the improvements I make. Pricing trends move slowly enough up or down that I can make a safe estimate of what I can sell for in that short a period of time. As with buying comics to flip, the hardest part is finding something at the right price to begin with, condition, neighborhood and architectural stye are all secondary considerations, and meaningless if I don't see a short term profit in the purchase.

 

Not that people don't successfully invest in real estate, but if that were my goal I'd be looking at very different properties. Comics or houses, knowledgeable flippers can make money regardless of the long term investment trends of what it is they are selling, but it takes work, most of us are never going to have a Church collection fall into our lap.

 

Again goes back to the "key" component.

I firmly believe that for the next 5 - 10 years minimum, it will be fairly hard to go wrong if you stick to the established blue-chip GA/SA books.

FF #1, AS #8, X-Men #1, Action # 252, Avengers #1, AF #15 etc, the first issues of an iconic team or character will hold its value as it is supported by the media/cinematic/pop-culture trend.

After Marvel and DC finish their "phases" for the mostly Silver Age/Golden Age characters, then the market will respond to the next impetus it does or doesn't receive. For the film studios, unless the world turns to dust either financially or literally, then that is 10 years away. DC especially won't even consider its JLA team-up film for another 3 years if reports are to be believed. The spin-off "origin" tales - WW, The Flash, AquaMan, Hawkman, MM, (plus extra villans and heroes) will take years to complete.

 

Someone mentioned Casablanca and John Wayne earlier - both blue chip items in their day - but that day has passed.

Heck, 50% of the people who watched the remake of True Grit, probably had no idea there was an original, or the actor that played the main role.

The market for Casablanca memorabilia is also virtually nil, not because the film has suddenly become gash, but because it has simply faded from public awareness.

The current movie rush has spawned a new generation of fans - and to those who say these people are not reading the comics - please look again.

They are, and in droves.

By buying direct, on-line, by-passing the LCS. Cheaper and more efficient.

 

There is potentially a new 25 year lifespan for these GA/SA keys right now, and Marvel/DC producing more and more quality products only serve to increase this timeframe.

The game has changed and those that cannot/will not adapt will be left behind unfortunately.

"Collect what you want" now comes with the addendum - "if you don't mind it being worthless when you disband your collection" - GA/SA keys are the only sure-fire way to minimise this financial inevitablility.

 

All IMHO opinion of course.

 

. What I see is interest in the book BEFORE the movie, and then it tends to go a bit dead after the movie actually comes out.

If you're talking new comics, then why isn't the Avengers comic numbers going up?

It was the biggest of all the superhero movies, yet the comic publishing numbers seem kinda, enh.

People love those dog gone Iron Man movies.... the comic.... just so-so.

Where are these droves?

Good points.

Batman and Avengers did over 1 billion dollars each at the box office, and they still couldn`t bring in many new comic book readers!

The only way I see comic books getting back to the top again is thru the digital route. Print comics are going the way of the newspaper.

Digital comics will be the way to go.

It will be good in that digital comics will bring in millions of new readers, but the bad will be that all those back issues values will continue to plummet even more then they have.

[Beige]

 

If you want to make money in comics, learn to "flip" them (ie, a new word for the old word "dealer"). If you want to collect comics, collect and let the chips fall where they may. If you want to invest in comics... don't.

 

 

This. Flipping and investing are very different approaches. I flip houses for a living ( harder than the TV shows would lead you to believe) I'm not concerned with whether the house will be worth more or less than I sell it for a year from now, let alone a decade. I'm in it to make money of a given house within a few months of when I buy it based on the improvements I make. Pricing trends move slowly enough up or down that I can make a safe estimate of what I can sell for in that short a period of time. As with buying comics to flip, the hardest part is finding something at the right price to begin with, condition, neighborhood and architectural stye are all secondary considerations, and meaningless if I don't see a short term profit in the purchase.

 

Not that people don't successfully invest in real estate, but if that were my goal I'd be looking at very different properties. Comics or houses, knowledgeable flippers can make money regardless of the long term investment trends of what it is they are selling, but it takes work, most of us are never going to have a Church collection fall into our lap.

 

Again goes back to the "key" component.

I firmly believe that for the next 5 - 10 years minimum, it will be fairly hard to go wrong if you stick to the established blue-chip GA/SA books.

FF #1, AS #8, X-Men #1, Action # 252, Avengers #1, AF #15 etc, the first issues of an iconic team or character will hold its value as it is supported by the media/cinematic/pop-culture trend.

After Marvel and DC finish their "phases" for the mostly Silver Age/Golden Age characters, then the market will respond to the next impetus it does or doesn't receive. For the film studios, unless the world turns to dust either financially or literally, then that is 10 years away. DC especially won't even consider its JLA team-up film for another 3 years if reports are to be believed. The spin-off "origin" tales - WW, The Flash, AquaMan, Hawkman, MM, (plus extra villans and heroes) will take years to complete.

 

Someone mentioned Casablanca and John Wayne earlier - both blue chip items in their day - but that day has passed.

Heck, 50% of the people who watched the remake of True Grit, probably had no idea there was an original, or the actor that played the main role.

The market for Casablanca memorabilia is also virtually nil, not because the film has suddenly become gash, but because it has simply faded from public awareness.

The current movie rush has spawned a new generation of fans - and to those who say these people are not reading the comics - please look again.

They are, and in droves.

By buying direct, on-line, by-passing the LCS. Cheaper and more efficient.

 

There is potentially a new 25 year lifespan for these GA/SA keys right now, and Marvel/DC producing more and more quality products only serve to increase this timeframe.

The game has changed and those that cannot/will not adapt will be left behind unfortunately.

"Collect what you want" now comes with the addendum - "if you don't mind it being worthless when you disband your collection" - GA/SA keys are the only sure-fire way to minimise this financial inevitablility.

 

All IMHO opinion of course.

 

. What I see is interest in the book BEFORE the movie, and then it tends to go a bit dead after the movie actually comes out.

How does the drove know ahead of time?

If you're talking new comics, then why isn't the Avengers comic numbers going up?

It was the biggest of all the superhero movies, yet the comic publishing numbers seem kinda, enh.

People love those dog gone Iron Man movies.... the comic.... just so-so.

Where are these droves?

 

Maybe it depends on where you live?

City vs Rural, thriving area, vs not doing so well.

I don't know Chuck tbh.

I can only comment on what I see personally, but here in Melbourne, comics are doing very,very well.

[The-Collector]

Most comic books are a bad bet for investment or speculative purposes.

The "variant" books with different covers devaluate the newsstand editions. Comics are also a bad value for your entertainment dollar

You can walk into a comic store and see that the comics at $4.00 each.

Who wants to pay $8 bucks to read a half hour of the new 52?

I can get Netflix for $8 bucks a month.

I can go buy a video game for $9

Even most big comic books are a LOSING money bad bet.

Go buy a slabbed comic book for $1000,then try to sell that same book for $1000 the next week and you will have lost money to do auction fees, and ebay/paypal fees.

Three factors have fueled and have kept the comics will be valuable illusion alive.

CGC comics being pressed up a grade(biggest money maker by far.)

Movie hyped comics.

Walking Dead comics becoming a hit, so now everybody looks for another Walking Dead.

With all three factors slowly winding down now, plus most comic book fans reaching the average age of 50 with no new age fan base entering the market = prognosis of a future sell off like what happened in stamps. Most common comics will not be sellable or maybe will net 5 cents to 50 cents a piece.

Those AF 15s type comics won`t be walking thru that door!

Buy stocks or 529 plans if you want to pay for your children`s college.

Buy comics to read for entertainment value.

IMHO

 

I usually agree with most of your posts - but the quote below is utter tripe.

Have you not been in moderns lately? Do a quick poll re: ages and the average is well under 30!

 

plus most comic book fans reaching the average age of 50 with no new age fan base entering the market

 

My kids (teenagers) and pretty much all their friends at University are into comics, movies and TV stuff. The current teenager/twenty-somethings are well into comic books!

 

+1

[The-Collector]

 

If you want to make money in comics, learn to "flip" them (ie, a new word for the old word "dealer"). If you want to collect comics, collect and let the chips fall where they may. If you want to invest in comics... don't.

 

 

This. Flipping and investing are very different approaches. I flip houses for a living ( harder than the TV shows would lead you to believe) I'm not concerned with whether the house will be worth more or less than I sell it for a year from now, let alone a decade. I'm in it to make money of a given house within a few months of when I buy it based on the improvements I make. Pricing trends move slowly enough up or down that I can make a safe estimate of what I can sell for in that short a period of time. As with buying comics to flip, the hardest part is finding something at the right price to begin with, condition, neighborhood and architectural stye are all secondary considerations, and meaningless if I don't see a short term profit in the purchase.

 

Not that people don't successfully invest in real estate, but if that were my goal I'd be looking at very different properties. Comics or houses, knowledgeable flippers can make money regardless of the long term investment trends of what it is they are selling, but it takes work, most of us are never going to have a Church collection fall into our lap.

 

Again goes back to the "key" component.

I firmly believe that for the next 5 - 10 years minimum, it will be fairly hard to go wrong if you stick to the established blue-chip GA/SA books.

FF #1, AS #8, X-Men #1, Action # 252, Avengers #1, AF #15 etc, the first issues of an iconic team or character will hold its value as it is supported by the media/cinematic/pop-culture trend.

After Marvel and DC finish their "phases" for the mostly Silver Age/Golden Age characters, then the market will respond to the next impetus it does or doesn't receive. For the film studios, unless the world turns to dust either financially or literally, then that is 10 years away. DC especially won't even consider its JLA team-up film for another 3 years if reports are to be believed. The spin-off "origin" tales - WW, The Flash, AquaMan, Hawkman, MM, (plus extra villans and heroes) will take years to complete.

 

Someone mentioned Casablanca and John Wayne earlier - both blue chip items in their day - but that day has passed.

Heck, 50% of the people who watched the remake of True Grit, probably had no idea there was an original, or the actor that played the main role.

The market for Casablanca memorabilia is also virtually nil, not because the film has suddenly become gash, but because it has simply faded from public awareness.

The current movie rush has spawned a new generation of fans - and to those who say these people are not reading the comics - please look again.

They are, and in droves.

By buying direct, on-line, by-passing the LCS. Cheaper and more efficient.

 

There is potentially a new 25 year lifespan for these GA/SA keys right now, and Marvel/DC producing more and more quality products only serve to increase this timeframe.

The game has changed and those that cannot/will not adapt will be left behind unfortunately.

"Collect what you want" now comes with the addendum - "if you don't mind it being worthless when you disband your collection" - GA/SA keys are the only sure-fire way to minimise this financial inevitablility.

 

All IMHO opinion of course.

 

. What I see is interest in the book BEFORE the movie, and then it tends to go a bit dead after the movie actually comes out.

How does the drove know ahead of time?

If you're talking new comics, then why isn't the Avengers comic numbers going up?

It was the biggest of all the superhero movies, yet the comic publishing numbers seem kinda, enh.

People love those dog gone Iron Man movies.... the comic.... just so-so.

Where are these droves?

 

Maybe it depends on where you live?

City vs Rural, thriving area, vs not doing so well.

I don't know Chuck tbh.

I can only comment on what I see personally, but here in Melbourne, comics are doing very,very well.

 

Again i would agree. I am from Adelaide and my three local comic shops were doing mediocre business for years. Now the big two are constantly packed. When I go in on new book day many of the titles I want are sold out. Trade has been so brisk for one shop, that they have now opened up stores interstate.

[Buzzetta]

This... this is the next thread to milk some points out of.

[Beige]

This... this is the next thread to milk some points out of.

 

I hope not Buzz - there are some very good points being raised.

[Buzzetta]

This... this is the next thread to milk some points out of.

 

I hope not Buzz - there are some very good points being raised.

 

Please sum up... I just got home from work and I have to be back in 6.5 hrs. Bleh

[ComicConnoisseur]

Most comic books are a bad bet for investment or speculative purposes.

The "variant" books with different covers devaluate the newsstand editions. Comics are also a bad value for your entertainment dollar

You can walk into a comic store and see that the comics at $4.00 each.

Who wants to pay $8 bucks to read a half hour of the new 52?

I can get Netflix for $8 bucks a month.

I can go buy a video game for $9

Even most big comic books are a LOSING money bad bet.

Go buy a slabbed comic book for $1000,then try to sell that same book for $1000 the next week and you will have lost money to do auction fees, and ebay/paypal fees.

Three factors have fueled and have kept the comics will be valuable illusion alive.

CGC comics being pressed up a grade(biggest money maker by far.)

Movie hyped comics.

Walking Dead comics becoming a hit, so now everybody looks for another Walking Dead.

With all three factors slowly winding down now, plus most comic book fans reaching the average age of 50 with no new age fan base entering the market = prognosis of a future sell off like what happened in stamps. Most common comics will not be sellable or maybe will net 5 cents to 50 cents a piece.

Those AF 15s type comics won`t be walking thru that door!

Buy stocks or 529 plans if you want to pay for your children`s college.

Buy comics to read for entertainment value.

IMHO

 

I usually agree with most of your posts - but the quote below is utter tripe.

Have you not been in moderns lately? Do a quick poll re: ages and the average is well under 30!

 

plus most comic book fans reaching the average age of 50 with no new age fan base entering the market.

 

My kids (teenagers) and pretty much all their friends at University are into comics, movies and TV stuff. The current teenager/twenty-somethings are well into comic books!

Ok let`s say they are.

Are they just Walking Dead and Batman fans?

Are they buying some other comics?

Are they buying back issues?

This thread I thought was about are comics going to be a good future long-term investment to put the children into college or make retirement comfortable?

Yeah, so maybe some young people are buying Walking Dead and Batman comic books, but that doesn`t mean much in the total overall long-term health of the industry.

I really think for the most part comic books are a bad bet for speculative or investment purpose.

Short-term money can be had right now, but I would be leery long-term for most of these comics.

I see three bubbles ready to break.

The pressing bubble.

The Walking Dead bubble that has fueled other Image comic books speculation.

lastly the movie hyped bubble which will probably last at least until Avengers 3 and the Batman/Superman movie.

I know you can make money now, but in 5 years I wouldn`t want to be holding a lot of these comic books. I rather have the cash instead.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Here is an excellent article of speculation within the collectibles market:

 

http://www.harryrinker.com/col-1210.html

 

This looks at 'American Girl' and brings up several points that apply to the market as a whole. Other articles have been written that are similar to this. Heck, those who do not read these articles on a weekly basis are unwise and bound to repeat the past.

 

Alright, let's try this AGAIN, and see if stupid Internet Explorer doesn't freeze up on me this time, after writing multiple paragraphs.

 

And let's hope I'm also not windmill tilting, too.

 

To answer your statement directly; are you not assuming that the speculators back during the bronze age boom used the census as their guide? I am sorry, but a lot did not.

 

If you're going to ask me a question, you're going to have to wait and give me a chance to answer before answering for me.

 

First off...I am only discussing CGC graded books, not raw books. Raw books may fine and dandy, but they are entirely outside the scope of discussion of what I am referring to. So, if you were talking about raw comics at all, we can entirely set those aside as a completely different discussion.

 

Now, onto the "low census, high grade, $$$$$" phenomenon.

 

I will give you actual hard data:

 

Harbinger #1. (I really can't believe I have to type this all up again. Sigh.) Harbinger #1 is one of the most classic examples of this phenom that exists. From 2002-2006, a total of 6 copies sold in 9.8. Most people who had one were collectors who had submitted them themselves. From 1999-2006 or so, CGC was concerned almost entirely with Bronze and earlier books, because the vast, vast majority of post-1980 books simply weren't worth slabbing (and still aren't, but there are a whole lot more that now are.)

 

Yes, the high sale for a Harby #1 9.8 was $970. An impressive figure, but again, most modern collectors had yet to dip their toes into the CGC pool, hardly anyone was buying them, and hardly anyone even knew what GPA was. So, it was easy to see why those numbers were overlooked.

 

By 2008, there were only 12 copies of the book in 9.8. The book was not only the key regular book of the entire Valiant universe, it was also notoriously difficult to get in 9.8 unpressed (and again, this was long before pressing became the norm.)

 

Discussion on the Valiant board was intense, and collectors wondered if they would ever be able to get a 9.8 for themselves. Then, something amazing happened. In March of 2008, one was offered for sale on eBay...nearly a year and a half after the last public sale...and the final bid was $2550, which was, by far, the record for a 1990's comic book (a record, oddly enough, that would be smashed less than a month later by Bone #1 9.8.)

 

The response was ecstatic. Write-ups were done in many online sites. CGC used the information in print and online ads for the next several months. The owner, who still owns the book to this day, was not a speculator, and doesn't regret his purchase for a minute. He was not a speculator, but rather a collector who wanted to own what was the crown jewel of the Valiant universe, and was prepared to pay whatever price it would take to get it.

 

More importantly, the floodgates were opened. Within a year, the census doubled to 25. Within another year, the census doubled again to 50. It stands now at 113 Universal copies.

 

The key to remember is this: Harbinger #1 was never worth $2550 to begin with. It is really worth about $300-$500, a price range in which it has steadily sold for the past two years. But it took those potential 9.8s out there in the wild to become ACTUAL 9.8s, for the supply and demand to reach equilibrium, so we saw neither irrational highs nor lows. And the kicker? No one really knows if those additional copies may show up until they actually do. Lots of people have lots of regrets about things that they let pass and then never had the opportunity to grab hold of again. That plays a significant psychological part in the phenom, too.

 

But is Harbinger #1 too young? Need an older example?

 

Green Lantern #76. Another classic example.

 

For years and years, the highest graded copy available was 9.4 Going back to at least 2002. People would say "Looks like those ultra high grade copies just don't exist. I mean, they would have been slabbed by now if they did, right? They're just not out there." There is a many years old thread on this very board discussing that very thing.

 

For at least seven years...which is utter desperation in this field...there was nothing available for purchase...at ANY price...above 9.4.

 

Then, magic struck again. In 2009, someone looked at the census, and said WAIT..is that what I think it is?? Could it BE??? THERE'S A 9.6 ON THE CENSUS!! LET THE WORLD REJOICE! (really, that's how exciting it was.)

 

And, on June 22, 2009, it sold for $30,500. Because several people wanted what was then the highest graded copy, on the reasonable assumption that that was the highest grade they could ever own, considering how long it took to find one.

 

Now, there are 16 copies in 9.6, and one sexy, sexy copy in SS 9.6. It has "settled" to about $10,000 (because the market really hasn't been tested for over two years), and fell significantly below its high price. The census quite literally sexdecupled (yes, that's the right word) from the initial single copy in four years. And not only that, there are TWO 9.8 copies!

 

And that scenario has been repeated over and over again, for thousands of comics printed since 1965. The first few examples sold for huge amounts, the other copies came flooding in, then the market "crashed". It is still going on today.

 

While the economy as a whole had a moderate influence on this process, the truth is, the central reason was simple: low census, high grade, $$$$. Whether the buyers knew about the census or not didn't matter...because the sellers always did, and made sure the buyers did as well. The buyers only saw something they wanted, hadn't been able to buy heretofore, and now had the opportunity to do so. The only thing stopping anyone was their ability to pay. The bragging rights...at least for a while...are immeasurably sweet.

 

Again...THIS type of bubble only happens once. Once the census fills up on each book, it's over. At that point, what takes over are normal market forces. As each book has its moment in the spotlight, the census fills up, and "critical mass"...that is, the majority of copies in any given grade has been added to the census, and the census will never again see the types of exponential increase it has already seen, though additional copies will be added on a regular basis.

 

What is a good investment NOW? The same as always: blue chip, ultra high demand, relatively rare items, and obscure, out of demand items that might potentially be in demand later. In 2010, Batman Adventures #12 would have been an excellent investment, in any grade. I sold a 9.8 last year for $175 or so. Oops.

 

But what's a good investment NOW isn't, and never has been, the point of this thread. Neither is this a discussion about what is, and what is not, rare in absolute terms. The point is that that article says "comics are worthless" (which is mostly true), but then cites examples like the above, utterly devoid of context, and thus lacking any real meaning. If one doesn't understand why X-Men #94 went from $26,000 to $8,000, the article actually does damage.

I had conversations with collectors during this time who did not even know what CGC stood for, but were buying so called keys for investment. Much like the great coin market bubble a lot of these buyers were from outside the hobby who never returned after prices fell. Do you not think that prices are speculative right now? Anyone can look at the current census and surmise that a lot of books selling at extreme prices (i.e. Hulk #181) are nowhere near rare. I think we both agree on this. One of the reasons I question your statement on the census is because now more than ever the census is filling up due to the crack, press, and resubmit game.

 

Um...you DO realize by now that that was my point from the beginning...?

 

Is 'best to you' supposed to be my version of 'kind regards'? (this is meant to be a joke because I didn't see you use it before we had this exchange)

 

Kind Regards,

 

No.

[slym2none]

This... this is the next thread to milk some points out of.

 

PUNISHMENT!!!

 

 

 

 

-slym

[Prince Namor]

 

If you want to make money in comics, learn to "flip" them (ie, a new word for the old word "dealer"). If you want to collect comics, collect and let the chips fall where they may. If you want to invest in comics... don't.

 

 

This. Flipping and investing are very different approaches. I flip houses for a living ( harder than the TV shows would lead you to believe) I'm not concerned with whether the house will be worth more or less than I sell it for a year from now, let alone a decade. I'm in it to make money of a given house within a few months of when I buy it based on the improvements I make. Pricing trends move slowly enough up or down that I can make a safe estimate of what I can sell for in that short a period of time. As with buying comics to flip, the hardest part is finding something at the right price to begin with, condition, neighborhood and architectural stye are all secondary considerations, and meaningless if I don't see a short term profit in the purchase.

 

Not that people don't successfully invest in real estate, but if that were my goal I'd be looking at very different properties. Comics or houses, knowledgeable flippers can make money regardless of the long term investment trends of what it is they are selling, but it takes work, most of us are never going to have a Church collection fall into our lap.

 

Again goes back to the "key" component.

I firmly believe that for the next 5 - 10 years minimum, it will be fairly hard to go wrong if you stick to the established blue-chip GA/SA books.

FF #1, AS #8, X-Men #1, Action # 252, Avengers #1, AF #15 etc, the first issues of an iconic team or character will hold its value as it is supported by the media/cinematic/pop-culture trend.

After Marvel and DC finish their "phases" for the mostly Silver Age/Golden Age characters, then the market will respond to the next impetus it does or doesn't receive. For the film studios, unless the world turns to dust either financially or literally, then that is 10 years away. DC especially won't even consider its JLA team-up film for another 3 years if reports are to be believed. The spin-off "origin" tales - WW, The Flash, AquaMan, Hawkman, MM, (plus extra villans and heroes) will take years to complete.

 

Someone mentioned Casablanca and John Wayne earlier - both blue chip items in their day - but that day has passed.

Heck, 50% of the people who watched the remake of True Grit, probably had no idea there was an original, or the actor that played the main role.

The market for Casablanca memorabilia is also virtually nil, not because the film has suddenly become gash, but because it has simply faded from public awareness.

The current movie rush has spawned a new generation of fans - and to those who say these people are not reading the comics - please look again.

They are, and in droves.

By buying direct, on-line, by-passing the LCS. Cheaper and more efficient.

 

There is potentially a new 25 year lifespan for these GA/SA keys right now, and Marvel/DC producing more and more quality products only serve to increase this timeframe.

The game has changed and those that cannot/will not adapt will be left behind unfortunately.

"Collect what you want" now comes with the addendum - "if you don't mind it being worthless when you disband your collection" - GA/SA keys are the only sure-fire way to minimise this financial inevitablility.

 

All IMHO opinion of course.

 

. What I see is interest in the book BEFORE the movie, and then it tends to go a bit dead after the movie actually comes out.

How does the drove know ahead of time?

If you're talking new comics, then why isn't the Avengers comic numbers going up?

It was the biggest of all the superhero movies, yet the comic publishing numbers seem kinda, enh.

People love those dog gone Iron Man movies.... the comic.... just so-so.

Where are these droves?

 

Maybe it depends on where you live?

City vs Rural, thriving area, vs not doing so well.

I don't know Chuck tbh.

I can only comment on what I see personally, but here in Melbourne, comics are doing very,very well.

 

Has nothing to do with where I live, I'm just not following what you're trying to say.

 

I get that there is an interest in comic related stuff. The movie box office proves it.

 

Diamond Distribution is showing increases for 4 years in a row (though unit sales in 2012 were still below 2007) and tpb's have reached their highest unit sales ever.

 

It's still a fairly niche market. It's not like the publishing numbers have suddenly exploded into the mainstream.

 

There's a 'buzz' in the air. Ok, cool.

 

So how does what you're saying relate to the buying of GA/SA keys?

 

Are you saying that:

Joe Blow see's a Batman movie, goes to his comic book shop to start purchasing all of the 5 zillion spin offs DC has of the book, gets really excited by Snyder's, uh, 'style' of writing or whatever, and then..... he goes out and buys a Detective #27?

[Buzzetta]

This... this is the next thread to milk some points out of.

 

PUNISHMENT!!!

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

Punishment is having to go back in 6.5 hours.

[jsilverjanet]

Here is an excellent article of speculation within the collectibles market:

 

http://www.harryrinker.com/col-1210.html

 

This looks at 'American Girl' and brings up several points that apply to the market as a whole. Other articles have been written that are similar to this. Heck, those who do not read these articles on a weekly basis are unwise and bound to repeat the past.

 

Alright, let's try this AGAIN, and see if stupid Internet Explorer doesn't freeze up on me this time, after writing multiple paragraphs.

 

And let's hope I'm also not windmill tilting, too.

 

To answer your statement directly; are you not assuming that the speculators back during the bronze age boom used the census as their guide? I am sorry, but a lot did not.

 

If you're going to ask me a question, you're going to have to wait and give me a chance to answer before answering for me.

 

First off...I am only discussing CGC graded books, not raw books. Raw books may fine and dandy, but they are entirely outside the scope of discussion of what I am referring to. So, if you were talking about raw comics at all, we can entirely set those aside as a completely different discussion.

 

Now, onto the "low census, high grade, $$$$$" phenomenon.

 

I will give you actual hard data:

 

Harbinger #1. (I really can't believe I have to type this all up again. Sigh.) Harbinger #1 is one of the most classic examples of this phenom that exists. From 2002-2006, a total of 6 copies sold in 9.8. Most people who had one were collectors who had submitted them themselves. From 1999-2006 or so, CGC was concerned almost entirely with Bronze and earlier books, because the vast, vast majority of post-1980 books simply weren't worth slabbing (and still aren't, but there are a whole lot more that now are.)

 

Yes, the high sale for a Harby #1 9.8 was $970. An impressive figure, but again, most modern collectors had yet to dip their toes into the CGC pool, hardly anyone was buying them, and hardly anyone even knew what GPA was. So, it was easy to see why those numbers were overlooked.

 

By 2008, there were only 12 copies of the book in 9.8. The book was not only the key regular book of the entire Valiant universe, it was also notoriously difficult to get in 9.8 unpressed (and again, this was long before pressing became the norm.)

 

Discussion on the Valiant board was intense, and collectors wondered if they would ever be able to get a 9.8 for themselves. Then, something amazing happened. In March of 2008, one was offered for sale on eBay...nearly a year and a half after the last public sale...and the final bid was $2550, which was, by far, the record for a 1990's comic book (a record, oddly enough, that would be smashed less than a month later by Bone #1 9.8.)

 

The response was ecstatic. Write-ups were done in many online sites. CGC used the information in print and online ads for the next several months. The owner, who still owns the book to this day, was not a speculator, and doesn't regret his purchase for a minute. He was not a speculator, but rather a collector who wanted to own what was the crown jewel of the Valiant universe, and was prepared to pay whatever price it would take to get it.

 

More importantly, the floodgates were opened. Within a year, the census doubled to 25. Within another year, the census doubled again to 50. It stands now at 113 Universal copies.

 

The key to remember is this: Harbinger #1 was never worth $2550 to begin with. It is really worth about $300-$500, a price range in which it has steadily sold for the past two years. But it took those potential 9.8s out there in the wild to become ACTUAL 9.8s, for the supply and demand to reach equilibrium, so we saw neither irrational highs nor lows. And the kicker? No one really knows if those additional copies may show up until they actually do. Lots of people have lots of regrets about things that they let pass and then never had the opportunity to grab hold of again. That plays a significant psychological part in the phenom, too.

 

But is Harbinger #1 too young? Need an older example?

 

Green Lantern #76. Another classic example.

 

For years and years, the highest graded copy available was 9.4 Going back to at least 2002. People would say "Looks like those ultra high grade copies just don't exist. I mean, they would have been slabbed by now if they did, right? They're just not out there." There is a many years old thread on this very board discussing that very thing.

 

For at least seven years...which is utter desperation in this field...there was nothing available for purchase...at ANY price...above 9.4.

 

Then, magic struck again. In 2009, someone looked at the census, and said WAIT..is that what I think it is?? Could it BE??? THERE'S A 9.6 ON THE CENSUS!! LET THE WORLD REJOICE! (really, that's how exciting it was.)

 

And, on June 22, 2009, it sold for $30,500. Because several people wanted what was then the highest graded copy, on the reasonable assumption that that was the highest grade they could ever own, considering how long it took to find one.

 

Now, there are 16 copies in 9.6, and one sexy, sexy copy in SS 9.6. It has "settled" to about $10,000 (because the market really hasn't been tested for over two years), and fell significantly below its high price. The census quite literally sexdecupled (yes, that's the right word) from the initial single copy in four years. And not only that, there are TWO 9.8 copies!

 

And that scenario has been repeated over and over again, for thousands of comics printed since 1965. The first few examples sold for huge amounts, the other copies came flooding in, then the market "crashed". It is still going on today.

 

While the economy as a whole had a moderate influence on this process, the truth is, the central reason was simple: low census, high grade, $$$$. Whether the buyers knew about the census or not didn't matter...because the sellers always did, and made sure the buyers did as well. The buyers only saw something they wanted, hadn't been able to buy heretofore, and now had the opportunity to do so. The only thing stopping anyone was their ability to pay. The bragging rights...at least for a while...are immeasurably sweet.

 

Again...THIS type of bubble only happens once. Once the census fills up on each book, it's over. At that point, what takes over are normal market forces. As each book has its moment in the spotlight, the census fills up, and "critical mass"...that is, the majority of copies in any given grade has been added to the census, and the census will never again see the types of exponential increase it has already seen, though additional copies will be added on a regular basis.

 

What is a good investment NOW? The same as always: blue chip, ultra high demand, relatively rare items, and obscure, out of demand items that might potentially be in demand later. In 2010, Batman Adventures #12 would have been an excellent investment, in any grade. I sold a 9.8 last year for $175 or so. Oops.

 

But what's a good investment NOW isn't, and never has been, the point of this thread. Neither is this a discussion about what is, and what is not, rare in absolute terms. The point is that that article says "comics are worthless" (which is mostly true), but then cites examples like the above, utterly devoid of context, and thus lacking any real meaning. If one doesn't understand why X-Men #94 went from $26,000 to $8,000, the article actually does damage.

I had conversations with collectors during this time who did not even know what CGC stood for, but were buying so called keys for investment. Much like the great coin market bubble a lot of these buyers were from outside the hobby who never returned after prices fell. Do you not think that prices are speculative right now? Anyone can look at the current census and surmise that a lot of books selling at extreme prices (i.e. Hulk #181) are nowhere near rare. I think we both agree on this. One of the reasons I question your statement on the census is because now more than ever the census is filling up due to the crack, press, and resubmit game.

 

Um...you DO realize by now that that was my point from the beginning...?

 

Is 'best to you' supposed to be my version of 'kind regards'? (this is meant to be a joke because I didn't see you use it before we had this exchange)

 

Kind Regards,

 

No.

 

Great points, glad you retyped this. Context is everything.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

So basically, what the article is saying is that there are winners in ever market, there are losers in every market and there are those that don't care in every market.

 

 

The article's trying to say that the everyday public is considerably misformed about comics' marketability. It then veers off into some bad examples that aren't clarified.

 

On the other hand, in order to clarify those examples, the author would have to explain 9.8 and CGC and slabs and such that would confuse and lose the reader before the commentary even began. So I do understand the dilemma.

 

Is that not the exact same argument that would have to be made regarding hedge funds, and short calls, and small-cap, mid-cap, large-cap, etc...?

 

If the author didn't feel it was worthwhile explaining the examples, he should have left them out entirely. Leaving them in sans explanation creates a picture that is tragically inaccurate.

[Prince Namor]

Here is an excellent article of speculation within the collectibles market:

 

http://www.harryrinker.com/col-1210.html

 

This looks at 'American Girl' and brings up several points that apply to the market as a whole. Other articles have been written that are similar to this. Heck, those who do not read these articles on a weekly basis are unwise and bound to repeat the past.

 

Alright, let's try this AGAIN, and see if stupid Internet Explorer doesn't freeze up on me this time, after writing multiple paragraphs.

 

And let's hope I'm also not windmill tilting, too.

 

To answer your statement directly; are you not assuming that the speculators back during the bronze age boom used the census as their guide? I am sorry, but a lot did not.

 

If you're going to ask me a question, you're going to have to wait and give me a chance to answer before answering for me.

 

First off...I am only discussing CGC graded books, not raw books. Raw books may fine and dandy, but they are entirely outside the scope of discussion of what I am referring to. So, if you were talking about raw comics at all, we can entirely set those aside as a completely different discussion.

 

Now, onto the "low census, high grade, $$$$$" phenomenon.

 

I will give you actual hard data:

 

Harbinger #1. (I really can't believe I have to type this all up again. Sigh.) Harbinger #1 is one of the most classic examples of this phenom that exists. From 2002-2006, a total of 6 copies sold in 9.8. Most people who had one were collectors who had submitted them themselves. From 1999-2006 or so, CGC was concerned almost entirely with Bronze and earlier books, because the vast, vast majority of post-1980 books simply weren't worth slabbing (and still aren't, but there are a whole lot more that now are.)

 

Yes, the high sale for a Harby #1 9.8 was $970. An impressive figure, but again, most modern collectors had yet to dip their toes into the CGC pool, hardly anyone was buying them, and hardly anyone even knew what GPA was. So, it was easy to see why those numbers were overlooked.

 

By 2008, there were only 12 copies of the book in 9.8. The book was not only the key regular book of the entire Valiant universe, it was also notoriously difficult to get in 9.8 unpressed (and again, this was long before pressing became the norm.)

 

Discussion on the Valiant board was intense, and collectors wondered if they would ever be able to get a 9.8 for themselves. Then, something amazing happened. In March of 2008, one was offered for sale on eBay...nearly a year and a half after the last public sale...and the final bid was $2550, which was, by far, the record for a 1990's comic book (a record, oddly enough, that would be smashed less than a month later by Bone #1 9.8.)

 

The response was ecstatic. Write-ups were done in many online sites. CGC used the information in print and online ads for the next several months. The owner, who still owns the book to this day, was not a speculator, and doesn't regret his purchase for a minute. He was not a speculator, but rather a collector who wanted to own what was the crown jewel of the Valiant universe, and was prepared to pay whatever price it would take to get it.

 

More importantly, the floodgates were opened. Within a year, the census doubled to 25. Within another year, the census doubled again to 50. It stands now at 113 Universal copies.

 

The key to remember is this: Harbinger #1 was never worth $2550 to begin with. It is really worth about $300-$500, a price range in which it has steadily sold for the past two years. But it took those potential 9.8s out there in the wild to become ACTUAL 9.8s, for the supply and demand to reach equilibrium, so we saw neither irrational highs nor lows. And the kicker? No one really knows if those additional copies may show up until they actually do. Lots of people have lots of regrets about things that they let pass and then never had the opportunity to grab hold of again. That plays a significant psychological part in the phenom, too.

 

But is Harbinger #1 too young? Need an older example?

 

Green Lantern #76. Another classic example.

 

For years and years, the highest graded copy available was 9.4 Going back to at least 2002. People would say "Looks like those ultra high grade copies just don't exist. I mean, they would have been slabbed by now if they did, right? They're just not out there." There is a many years old thread on this very board discussing that very thing.

 

For at least seven years...which is utter desperation in this field...there was nothing available for purchase...at ANY price...above 9.4.

 

Then, magic struck again. In 2009, someone looked at the census, and said WAIT..is that what I think it is?? Could it BE??? THERE'S A 9.6 ON THE CENSUS!! LET THE WORLD REJOICE! (really, that's how exciting it was.)

 

And, on June 22, 2009, it sold for $30,500. Because several people wanted what was then the highest graded copy, on the reasonable assumption that that was the highest grade they could ever own, considering how long it took to find one.

 

Now, there are 16 copies in 9.6, and one sexy, sexy copy in SS 9.6. It has "settled" to about $10,000 (because the market really hasn't been tested for over two years), and fell significantly below its high price. The census quite literally sexdecupled (yes, that's the right word) from the initial single copy in four years. And not only that, there are TWO 9.8 copies!

 

And that scenario has been repeated over and over again, for thousands of comics printed since 1965. The first few examples sold for huge amounts, the other copies came flooding in, then the market "crashed". It is still going on today.

 

While the economy as a whole had a moderate influence on this process, the truth is, the central reason was simple: low census, high grade, $$$$. Whether the buyers knew about the census or not didn't matter...because the sellers always did, and made sure the buyers did as well. The buyers only saw something they wanted, hadn't been able to buy heretofore, and now had the opportunity to do so. The only thing stopping anyone was their ability to pay. The bragging rights...at least for a while...are immeasurably sweet.

 

Again...THIS type of bubble only happens once. Once the census fills up on each book, it's over. At that point, what takes over are normal market forces. As each book has its moment in the spotlight, the census fills up, and "critical mass"...that is, the majority of copies in any given grade has been added to the census, and the census will never again see the types of exponential increase it has already seen, though additional copies will be added on a regular basis.

 

What is a good investment NOW? The same as always: blue chip, ultra high demand, relatively rare items, and obscure, out of demand items that might potentially be in demand later. In 2010, Batman Adventures #12 would have been an excellent investment, in any grade. I sold a 9.8 last year for $175 or so. Oops.

 

But what's a good investment NOW isn't, and never has been, the point of this thread. Neither is this a discussion about what is, and what is not, rare in absolute terms. The point is that that article says "comics are worthless" (which is mostly true), but then cites examples like the above, utterly devoid of context, and thus lacking any real meaning. If one doesn't understand why X-Men #94 went from $26,000 to $8,000, the article actually does damage.

I had conversations with collectors during this time who did not even know what CGC stood for, but were buying so called keys for investment. Much like the great coin market bubble a lot of these buyers were from outside the hobby who never returned after prices fell. Do you not think that prices are speculative right now? Anyone can look at the current census and surmise that a lot of books selling at extreme prices (i.e. Hulk #181) are nowhere near rare. I think we both agree on this. One of the reasons I question your statement on the census is because now more than ever the census is filling up due to the crack, press, and resubmit game.

 

Um...you DO realize by now that that was my point from the beginning...?

 

Is 'best to you' supposed to be my version of 'kind regards'? (this is meant to be a joke because I didn't see you use it before we had this exchange)

 

Kind Regards,

 

No.

 

Good stuff.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Most comic books are a bad bet for investment or speculative purposes....Buy comics to read for entertainment value.

IMHO

 

(thumbs u

 

Congrats to Red Sox.

Thank you.

An amazing season from last to first.

Much more fun and enjoyable then talking about the same comic book stuff over and over again like pressing, comic book movie trailers and comic book bubbles bursting.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Great points, glad you retyped this. Context is everything.

 

 

Thanks.

 

By the way, the reverse of this is true, too. If, for some odd reason, someone were to buy up all the available copies of a book in a particular grade, and there weren't more copies coming in because they simply didn't exist, the buying public would look at the census numbers and resist higher prices...because their minds see "there are a lot of copies on the census, I can just wait until another one comes along for the price I want to pay."

 

It would take years for the market to correct this incorrect perception.

 

Even if that person were then to DESTROY those books publicy, provided the numbers remained on the census, the market would still behave as if those copies still existed.

 

Strange, but true.

[slym2none]

This... this is the next thread to milk some points out of.

 

PUNISHMENT!!!

 

 

Punishment is having to go back in 6.5 hours.

 

 

 

 

-slym