Those Comics in Your Basement?

[Beige]

A lot of things have happened since 2008 that would affect peoples discretionary spending habits.

 

This is a great opportunity to pick up some Keys/semi-keys at decent prices if you ask me.

 

That's the million dollar quote right there.

A collection containing only key books, regardless of the depth of key (ASM #101 for example) will always be cushioned against a severe drop.

You may still be flirting with financial danger collecting comics, but the danger can be minimised by being selective in what you purchase.

ASM #172 Rocket Racer (god bless Marvel) may not be the defining issue of the ASM run, but it will always be worth more than a non-key filler issue.

 

 

 

 

ibtl

[bababooey]

Sorry, but I disagree highly with both the article and a lot of points being made here after bookery made his excellent post. One thing that is extremely lacking from this forum (on both sides of the equation) is an unbiased viewpoint. There seems to be little middle ground. Back before bronze age market values collapsed I fondly remember the following books being sold for insane prices in so called 'investment' grade. Here are a few examples (and I can provide a ton more):

 

Sinister House of Secret Love #1 CGC 9.4 $600 +

Dark Mansion of Forbidden Love #1 CGC 9.4 $600 +

Most 20 cent Marvel number #1 issues in CGC 9.4 went for close to $150 to $200; some more (Vault of Evil #1, Dead of Night #1, Marvel Spotlight #1, etc.)

Marvel Team Up #1 CGC 9.4 $650 +

 

Most of these titles can be had for a lot less and they are NOT in uber high grade. Even esoteric silver age books like Weird War Tales #1, Witching Hour #1, Tower of Shadows #1 (sold for close to $400 in 9.4), Chamber of Darkness #1, etc. all were touted as great 'investments.' Luckily, I didn't buy as I knew better.

 

The fact that this forum fails to acknowledge the great market correction that occurred during this time really makes me wonder what 'truth' we are all misled into believing? Some of you have sent me PM's over the last few months telling me how great your 'insert current hot comic here' increased in value; not realizing that I too hold a massive collection of high grade keys well worth six figures. That being said, why aren't you selling these precious books that claim to return so much money? If you truly bought for investment this should not be an issue for you. Unfortunately, I don't think that was a real reason some of these people bought these books at all and that is the reason they never respond to my later inquiries in this regard.

 

It is really sad what the collectibles marketplace has become. Is Overstreet to blame or are we just addicted to a post-consumer based society where accumulation is the norm? Buying an item that pays no cash flow or dividends and costs money to maintain is not a wise investment in my opinion. Especially when an emotional attachment is concerned. To each his own I guess.

 

 

 

 

Couple of quick clarifying questions:

 

1. To whom, or to what, specifically, are you replying?

 

2. Why do you say the forum fails to acknowledge the great market correction of the last several years? I posted a multi-paragraph saying exactly that, and then explained precisely why it happened: The market corrected itself because of a situation that never "should" have happened (I say "should" entirely philosophically, not realistically. Realistically, what happened was precisely what should have happened, and did in fact happen.) That is, the near starvation of the market of premium high grade material for a couple of decades creating hysterical prices when the first few examples finally appeared for sale, followed by the rush to market by others wishing to cash in, which resulted in the inevitable increase in supply, and concurrent decrease in demand, of said material, until equilibrium was once more obtained.

 

That a few myopic individuals, with no understanding of history, might claim otherwise does not mean that the forum, as a whole, does so.

 

The general point of the article IS correct. The vast majority of comics are "worthless", that is, they do not rise in value to beat inflation, much less make a good investment. This is true in every market. You cannot buy a VG 1947D Lincoln Cent for 5 cents, and expect to ever make 10 cents from it.

 

And Bob Overstreet has the lion's share of the blame in this: it has been his stated policy that his price guide should always show a gentle, consistent rise in prices over time. In that, he has resisted the realities of the market on both sides, listing $100 comics for $3, and steadfastly refusing to LOWER prices on vast swaths of books that do not sell for the prices in the price guide (which, unfortunately, has been moderately obscured by the very phenomenon I described in my previous post.)

 

But the article uses examples that are so completely devoid of context, it renders the entire argument pointless, and presents a wildly erroneous view of the comics market. The lack of context is so egregious, the point the author was trying to make is obliterated, and the market is DAMAGED by people who do not know better, but see only "What? This comic book was worth $26,000, and now it's only worth $8,000?? Well forget THAT! I'm not wasting my money in THAT market!"

 

People see...and remember...numbers. They will remember that figure far longer than they will remember any other point the author was trying to make, rendering the entire article a waste of time. Worse, because of the lack of context, these people will therefore project that misinformation onto the entire comics market, creating a specific negative impression of the entire market that it does not deserve.

 

As far as this forum having very few unbiased viewpoints, that is, sadly, correct. There is very little of it. But it DOES exist, if you look for it.

 

One final note: 9.4 may not be "uber" high grade, but it's awful darn close. When I started buying seriously in 1990, all the high grade silver age books had disappeared from the marketplace. Entirely gone. I did not know that there WERE any "near mint" books left printed before about 1972, and would not see them again until the CGC age a decade later. So 9.4 certainly falls within a "very high grade" discussion of just about anything before 1975.

 

RMA, my first statement in the quote you had commented on clearly states that I disagree with the article. That being said and solidified, where are all these posts touting this market correction? All I ever see is comment after comment over how great an investment these books are. Yes, there ARE some posts in the nature you speak of but they are few and far between compared to the amount of posts on speculation and investment. Try attempting to talk sanity into a thread about the ‘rule of 25’ or a thread about the future investment potential of bronze age comic books. It is not going to work. You can post articles written by experts and even note books on the subject and it will go ignored.

 

I routinely bring up that books like Hulk #181 9.8 once sold for 25-30K and it gets ignored by wide-eyed optimists. You can even find posts touting the investment potential of minor keys like Tomb of Dracula #1 in CGC 9.8 and when you bring up the fact that this book has made little headway in the last several years and once sold for close to $3,000 in 9.8; no one bothers to reply. ‘It is a great future investment’ they say lacking any real evidence to back up their claim.

 

Most of the criticism I face from stating just plain logic comes from the under 35 crowd who mostly buys for investment. I was part of an ‘unscientific ‘study that looked at the main reasons why certain collectors collect and buy antiques and collectibles. This was done through antique and collectible surveys and through higher end auction houses. It is far from perfect, but it did provide some excellent results. One of the top reasons younger people cited an interest in the hobby was for 'investment.' This has been commented on by many experts in the field as well. Ironically, older and more mature collectors stated they collect for aesthetic purposes and do not consider their collections any kind of financial investment whatsoever. Why the disconnect? I would venture a large portion of enthusiasts that frequent most collecting sites are speculators. What happens when the ‘baby boomers’ start selling off their collections in ten to twenty years? I believe I know. I believe experts have commented on it. Yet there are those who don’t want to see the truth and continue to think that despite a rising supply and most likely lower demand; prices will rise. Who are all these speculators going to sell to when an ample amount of supply is hitting the market en masse? Are they each going to 'flip' books to the next speculator hoping in turn that each 'flip' nets a profit until the last guy in line is holding an aging stapled booklet with no one to sell it to? Isn’t this already happening now? Sure it may take ten to twenty years for the full bubble to burst. The Western Collectibles market didn’t truly collapse until the 1980’s and even then some wide eye optimists said it will return. Well over twenty years later the market remains in near ruins. Since that time I have people lament that PEZ dispensers, Bean Babies, Pokemon Cards, Pogs, Atari games, and the like were all ‘great investments.’ Their stories remain eerily similar in nature and most of their bubbles burst long ago.

 

The quote in my subject line comes from an excellent article written by Mr. Rinker about the so called ‘guaranteed collectible’ that wide eyed speculators continue to chase…an item I like him, I don’t think exists. That being said, and with a very expensive collection of antiques and collectibles in tow; I sure hope he is wrong….but then again I didn’t buy most of my collections for investment (those that I did were sold when the investment gain was reached)…but I know a lot who did and many who still do.

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

[asr0462]

I wonder how New Mutants 98 are in those "Worthless" collections.

 

Or Batman Adventures #12

 

Or Uncanny X-Men 266

 

There are a decent amount of moderately valuable books in the era that guy is saying is "worthless."

[RockMyAmadeus]

I routinely bring up that books like Hulk #181 9.8 once sold for 25-30K and it gets ignored by wide-eyed optimists. You can even find posts touting the investment potential of minor keys like Tomb of Dracula #1 in CGC 9.8 and when you bring up the fact that this book has made little headway in the last several years and once sold for close to $3,000 in 9.8; no one bothers to reply. It is a great future investment they say lacking any real evidence to back up their claim.

 

You have completely and totally and utterly ignored everything I've said about why this situation has happened. If you're going to ignore what I say, further discussion is not meaningful. I understand your points, and agree with some of what you say, but if I'm going to take the effort to understand where YOU are coming from, it is only fair that you extend me the same courtesy.

 

Best to you.

[asr0462]

Anyone else think Walking Dead is going to drop in value significantly?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I wonder how New Mutants 98 are in those "Worthless" collections.

 

Or Batman Adventures #12

 

Or Uncanny X-Men 266

 

There are a decent amount of moderately valuable books in the era that guy is saying is "worthless."

 

Or Tales of Teen Titans 44, or ASM 300s, or Thor 344, or Hulk 271, or Hulk 340, or Aliens 1, or any one of a dozen "hot" books that were dollar books a couple of years ago.

 

 

[Bookery]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

 

I flip collections every hour of every day, 52 weeks a year, and have done so for 30 years. What's your point?

 

[comicwiz]

[Bomber-Bob]

I'm a big Walking Dead Fan. I've been buying them off the stands for five years and have most of the run, some slabbed. I just talked to a dealer friend of mine yesterday and he said suddenly Walking Dead is no longer a hot title. Other than the first 5 issues or so nobody's asking for them. The new season has generated zero interest. Just saying.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I wonder how New Mutants 98 are in those "Worthless" collections.

 

Or Batman Adventures #12

 

Or Uncanny X-Men 266

 

There are a decent amount of moderately valuable books in the era that guy is saying is "worthless."

 

Or Tales of Teen Titans 44, or ASM 300s, or Thor 344, or Hulk 271, or Hulk 340, or Aliens 1, or any one of a dozen "hot" books that were dollar books a couple of years ago.

 

 

ASM #300 has NEVER been a dollar book...

 

[mintcollector]

I routinely bring up that books like Hulk #181 9.8 once sold for 25-30K and it gets ignored by wide-eyed optimists. You can even find posts touting the investment potential of minor keys like Tomb of Dracula #1 in CGC 9.8 and when you bring up the fact that this book has made little headway in the last several years and once sold for close to $3,000 in 9.8; no one bothers to reply. It is a great future investment they say lacking any real evidence to back up their claim.

 

You have completely and totally and utterly ignored everything I've said about why this situation has happened. If you're going to ignore what I say, further discussion is not meaningful. I understand your points, and agree with some of what you say, but if I'm going to take the effort to understand where YOU are coming from, it is only fair that you extend me the same courtesy.

 

Best to you.

 

That is just it. I disagree with your 'why.' This is the difference in our observational opinions. Speculative bubbles have been occurring in markets for years (I am sure you have heard of the infamous tulip bulb mania that once occurred). Your observation acts like this is a one and done event; an anomaly if you will; or at best, an abnormal occurrence that will never again happen in the market. This is evident in this statement (note the bolded portion in particular):

 

"The market corrected itself because of a situation that never "should" have happened (I say "should" entirely philosophically, not realistically. Realistically, what happened was precisely what should have happened, and did in fact happen.) That is, the near starvation of the market of premium high grade material for a couple of decades creating hysterical prices when the first few examples finally appeared for sale, followed by the rush to market by others wishing to cash in, which resulted in the inevitable increase in supply, and concurrent decrease in demand, of said material, until equilibrium was once more obtained."

 

I am sorry, but I have witnessed many, many speculative bubbles from within a vast majority of markets (I have a background in finance as well; scary I know). That being said, these are not abnormalities. In fact, they are based on irrational behavior; not miscalculations from rational minds acting out of logic, as some would suggest.

 

Don't you agree?

 

 

 

[Bookery]

The main point of the thread isn't about investment predictions, but in investment perceptions... primarily those held by the general public due to misinformed and misleading media reports. I suspect that if those same folks wandered onto these boards and skimmed a variety of threads, they would unfortunately find themselves similarly misinformed and misled.

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

 

I flip collections every hour of every day, 52 weeks a year, and have done so for 30 years. What's your point?

 

Then you should be pretty busy counting your millions, shouldn't you?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I wonder how New Mutants 98 are in those "Worthless" collections.

 

Or Batman Adventures #12

 

Or Uncanny X-Men 266

 

There are a decent amount of moderately valuable books in the era that guy is saying is "worthless."

 

Or Tales of Teen Titans 44, or ASM 300s, or Thor 344, or Hulk 271, or Hulk 340, or Aliens 1, or any one of a dozen "hot" books that were dollar books a couple of years ago.

 

 

ASM #300 has NEVER been a dollar book...

 

 

Depends on who you buy it from. Did find a NM 98 9.6+ in a 50 cent bin last November. Guy overpriced all his SA and early Bronze stuff, but basically wrote off everything after 1980 as garbage. Still a lot of collectors out there with that mentality.

[Bookery]

A lot of things have happened since 2008 that would affect peoples discretionary spending habits.

 

This is a great opportunity to pick up some Keys/semi-keys at decent prices if you ask me.

 

That's the million dollar quote right there.

A collection containing only key books, regardless of the depth of key (ASM #101 for example) will always be cushioned against a severe drop.

 

The problem is, and another point rarely acknowledged, is that what is considered "key" is a constantly changing landscape. Fish Police #1 was once a key. X-Files #1 was once a key.

 

In movie posters I'm noticing a disturbing trend, at least for long-term investors. I'm seeing big drops the last several years for John Wayne posters, Elvis Presley posters, and even Bogart items save for the ultra-biggies. Chaplins come up erratically, but it seems they are even falling. These were once considered the gold standard... the Timelys and Amazing Spider-Mans of posters, if you will.

 

But generations and their tastes change. Exploitation and horror posters are still rising, while established classics have often seen their prime.

 

The vast vast vast majority of everything deemed collectible reaches a peak, and eventually declines... sometimes all the way back to near-worthlessness (see dime novels, for instance). It's not negativity... it's the way of the world. And those that understand that, and are investors or flippers or whatever, will do better than those that don't understand it. This isn't controversy. It's not debatable. It's simply cold hard historical fact.

 

 

[Bookery]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

 

I flip collections every hour of every day, 52 weeks a year, and have done so for 30 years. What's your point?

 

Then you should be pretty busy counting your millions, shouldn't you?

 

That's what accountants are for. Lucky for you I'm free to continue to entertain here with my sly wit and winning charm. Enjoy!

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I routinely bring up that books like Hulk #181 9.8 once sold for 25-30K and it gets ignored by wide-eyed optimists. You can even find posts touting the investment potential of minor keys like Tomb of Dracula #1 in CGC 9.8 and when you bring up the fact that this book has made little headway in the last several years and once sold for close to $3,000 in 9.8; no one bothers to reply. It is a great future investment they say lacking any real evidence to back up their claim.

 

You have completely and totally and utterly ignored everything I've said about why this situation has happened. If you're going to ignore what I say, further discussion is not meaningful. I understand your points, and agree with some of what you say, but if I'm going to take the effort to understand where YOU are coming from, it is only fair that you extend me the same courtesy.

 

Best to you.

 

That is just it. I disagree with your 'why.' This is the difference in our observational opinions. Speculative bubbles have been occurring in markets for years (I am sure you have heard of the infamous tulip bulb mania that once occurred). Your observation acts like this is a one and done event; an anomaly if you will; or at best, an abnormal occurrence that will never again happen in the market. This is evident in this statement (note the bolded portion in particular):

 

"The market corrected itself because of a situation that never "should" have happened (I say "should" entirely philosophically, not realistically. Realistically, what happened was precisely what should have happened, and did in fact happen.) That is, the near starvation of the market of premium high grade material for a couple of decades creating hysterical prices when the first few examples finally appeared for sale, followed by the rush to market by others wishing to cash in, which resulted in the inevitable increase in supply, and concurrent decrease in demand, of said material, until equilibrium was once more obtained."

 

I am sorry, but I have witnessed many, many speculative bubbles from within a vast majority of markets (I have a background in finance as well; scary I know). That being said, these are not abnormalities. In fact, they are based on irrational behavior; not miscalculations from rational minds acting out of logic, as some would suggest.

 

Don't you agree?

 

 

 

Sure, but why is some insufficiently_thoughtful_person paying $25k for a 9.8 Hulk 181 or $12k for a 9.9 NM 98 held up as examples? Anyone with a lick of knowledge knew those prices were foolish and unsustainable, for books with thousands of high grade samples out there. And you say these prices are "speculative", I say they were supply-driven. If there is one 9.9 or a couple of 9.8s, prices tend to be high, driven there by those willing to pay the price. Introduce additional copies to the market, and prices adjust. And sometimes, people KNOW this, they KNOW they are paying a price few are willing to pay, yet they do it. Why do some people pay full MSRP (or greater) for the earliest releases of a new car model, when they know that in 6-8 months the car will be everywhere with healthy rebates and discounts?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

 

I flip collections every hour of every day, 52 weeks a year, and have done so for 30 years. What's your point?

 

Then you should be pretty busy counting your millions, shouldn't you?

 

That's what accountants are for. Lucky for you I'm free to continue to entertain here with my sly wit and winning charm. Enjoy!

 

Actually, I've always enjoyed your contributions to these Boards. Nothing in this thread has changed my mind.

[Comicopolis]

This article made me laugh. Some of the responses are even funnier.

 

I've had two of my best years ever for finding and flipping collections the last two years, but, don't let facts disuade you from the "expert" opinions out there. Wish I could find more "worthless" collections out there.

 

I flip collections every hour of every day, 52 weeks a year, and have done so for 30 years. What's your point?

 

Then you should be pretty busy counting your millions, shouldn't you?

 

That's what accountants are for. Lucky for you I'm free to continue to entertain here with my sly wit and winning charm. Enjoy!

 

Actually, I've always enjoyed your contributions to these Boards. Nothing in this thread has changed my mind.

 

Now you're just after some of his millions.