What do you think is the GA superhero market rate of return nowadays?

[gasa]

Conversations on another thread lead me to another very, very broad and perhaps unanswerable question, but I would appreciate thoughts.

For speculation's purposes, let's remove the top 7 keys from the question: Action 1, Tec 27, Superman 1, AA 16, Marvel 1, Batman 1, Cap 1. Absent these keys, what annual rate of return do you think the general GA superhero market is currently at? Compress all low grade, high grade, unrestored, restored, keys, nonkeys, everything, to one average grouping and suggest an opinion:

 

0%?

2%?

5%?

7%?

etc.

 

 

[ciorac]

If you buy right, it can be 100%

[sfcityduck]

Which means don't buy from the guys on this site or Heritage.

 

IMHO, speculating on comics by buying and flipping after holding for a year or less is pretty foolish.

[gasa]

Thanks for the clarification, sfcityduck. I understand that a habit of consistently flipping most of one's GA after a year or less would not be productive. What I am looking for, however, are other Boardies' views on the current estimated annual rate of return of non mega GA superhero book, regardless of how many years one holds them. I hope that makes sense.

[Sqeggs]

Thanks for the clarification, sfcityduck. I understand that a habit of consistently flipping most of one's GA after a year or less would not be productive. What I am looking for, however, are other Boardies' views on the current estimated annual rate of return of non mega GA superhero book, regardless of how many years one holds them. I hope that makes sense.

 

I posted a long reply on this point in your other thread. Bottom line: Assume a negative after-tax, real return and you won't be disappointed.

 

My view is that comics are collectibles. I like them and I like the fun of collecting them. If by some happy chance when the day comes that I sell them, I make a little profit -- great. But I spend in such a way that if the value of my books dropped to zero, it would not be a financial problem for me or my family.

[Sqeggs]

If you buy right, it can be 100%

 

Yeah, savvy people who flip books are likely to do better at this point than are people buying and holding for the long term. I don't think the long-term outlook for comic books prices is looking rosy.

 

[gasa]

Thanks, Sqeggs. I read your post on the other thread. I pretty much also take your view that my comics are collectibles. I suppose I am just curious about any investment value on a long term basis. Oh well:)

[G.A.tor]

bottom line is comic books are collectibles....while there certainly is an investment element anytime one spends the type of money we do on them, they are bad investments in general...

 

collect because you love to....be happy "if" you decide to sell and you realize a profit, but prepare to take a loss....

[gasa]

Thanks, Gator.

[jimbo_707]

In my opinion, most non-key books will not hold their value against inflation long-term. I don't plan on ever "cashing out," but I know that my interests may shift from time to time, so I do have to be cautious with what I buy and for how much. I fully expect to take a 50% loss on any GA book I buy at auction should I ever decide to sell it in a no-reserve auction.

[Cat-Man_America]

In my opinion, most non-key books will not hold their value against inflation long-term. I don't plan on ever "cashing out," but I know that my interests may shift from time to time, so I do have to be cautious with what I buy and for how much. I fully expect to take a 50% loss on any GA book I buy at auction should I ever decide to sell it in a no-reserve auction.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]Jim, keys are only half of the equation in respect to holding value, grade is the other half.

 

The line can always be moved in respect to what's considered a key, but grade ...! ...Well, sometimes that can be moved too![/font]

[conditionfreak]

I think it all depends on what you pay for a book. Whether it is a good investment or not. Each and every golden age book would be a fantastic investment if you paid 10 or 20 cents.

 

I can not think of a golden age book in VG condition, that I would not pay #1.00 for, and at least double my investment on.

 

There is a thread whereupon a member here, paid twenty dollars per book for some golden age stuff.

 

He was immediately offered three times that amount by another member.

 

Great return no matter how you look at it.

[1koko]

bottom line is comic books are collectibles....while there certainly is an investment element anytime one spends the type of money we do on them, they are bad investments in general...

 

collect because you love to....be happy "if" you decide to sell and you realize a profit, but prepare to take a loss....

 

(thumbs u

[jimbo_707]

In my opinion, most non-key books will not hold their value against inflation long-term. I don't plan on ever "cashing out," but I know that my interests may shift from time to time, so I do have to be cautious with what I buy and for how much. I fully expect to take a 50% loss on any GA book I buy at auction should I ever decide to sell it in a no-reserve auction.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]Jim, keys are only half of the equation in respect to holding value, grade is the other half.

 

The line can always be moved in respect to what's considered a key, but grade ...! ...Well, sometimes that can be moved too![/font]

Fair enough. Very-high-grade Detective Comics, Captain America Comics, etc., shouldn't fare too badly. But what about when you get into books that are admired by long-time collectors, like books with (non-Timely, let's say) Schomburg covers and Matt Baker covers, but which feature characters unknown to younger people? I'm not sure how safe some of those are, even in high grade. I suppose they're safe from huge losses in the short run so long as somebody doesn't have to sell quickly and can wait for the right buyer. Long-term, say a generation out, I'd still describe them as very risky.

 

When you get into niche books with just average covers, well...I'm convinced even high-grade, pedigree copies of those sorts of books will eventually be practically worthless.

[mrmyst]

In my opinion, most non-key books will not hold their value against inflation long-term. I don't plan on ever "cashing out," but I know that my interests may shift from time to time, so I do have to be cautious with what I buy and for how much. I fully expect to take a 50% loss on any GA book I buy at auction should I ever decide to sell it in a no-reserve auction.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]Jim, keys are only half of the equation in respect to holding value, grade is the other half.

 

The line can always be moved in respect to what's considered a key, but grade ...! ...Well, sometimes that can be moved too![/font]

Fair enough. Very-high-grade Detective Comics, Captain America Comics, etc., shouldn't fare too badly. But what about when you get into books that are admired by long-time collectors, like books with (non-Timely, let's say) Schomburg covers and Matt Baker covers, but which feature characters unknown to younger people? I'm not sure how safe some of those are, even in high grade. I suppose they're safe from huge losses in the short run so long as somebody doesn't have to sell quickly and can wait for the right buyer. Long-term, say a generation out, I'd still describe them as very risky.

 

When you get into niche books with just average covers, well...I'm convinced even high-grade, pedigree copies of those sorts of books will eventually be practically worthless.

 

 

Have to disagree a bit with all due respect... Non-Timely Schomburg covers? 15 years ago you could have purchased Thrillings and other Nedors w/Schomburg covers for a pittance compared to today's prices. Matt Baker covers? 15 years ago you could have gotten his romance covers for a fraction of what they sell for now. If someone had invested 10K in low-grade non-key Timelys 15 years ago they'd be sittin' pretty. Pep Comics? Centaurs? All were vastly cheaper 15 or 20 years ago. Somehow they've gotten pretty darn pricey, even in low grade. I dunno, maybe I need to take off my rose-covered glasses.

[jimbo_707]

In my opinion, most non-key books will not hold their value against inflation long-term. I don't plan on ever "cashing out," but I know that my interests may shift from time to time, so I do have to be cautious with what I buy and for how much. I fully expect to take a 50% loss on any GA book I buy at auction should I ever decide to sell it in a no-reserve auction.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]Jim, keys are only half of the equation in respect to holding value, grade is the other half.

 

The line can always be moved in respect to what's considered a key, but grade ...! ...Well, sometimes that can be moved too![/font]

Fair enough. Very-high-grade Detective Comics, Captain America Comics, etc., shouldn't fare too badly. But what about when you get into books that are admired by long-time collectors, like books with (non-Timely, let's say) Schomburg covers and Matt Baker covers, but which feature characters unknown to younger people? I'm not sure how safe some of those are, even in high grade. I suppose they're safe from huge losses in the short run so long as somebody doesn't have to sell quickly and can wait for the right buyer. Long-term, say a generation out, I'd still describe them as very risky.

 

When you get into niche books with just average covers, well...I'm convinced even high-grade, pedigree copies of those sorts of books will eventually be practically worthless.

 

 

Have to disagree a bit with all due respect... Non-Timely Schomburg covers? 15 years ago you could have purchased Thrillings and other Nedors w/Schomburg covers for a pittance compared to today's prices. Matt Baker covers? 15 years ago you could have gotten his romance covers for a fraction of what they sell for now. If someone had invested 10K in low-grade non-key Timelys 15 years ago they'd be sittin' pretty. Pep Comics? Centaurs? All were vastly cheaper 15 or 20 years ago. Somehow they've gotten pretty darn pricey, even in low grade. I dunno, maybe I need to take off my rose-covered glasses.

I can't say for sure that any of those books you mentioned will plummet in value. I guess it all depends on whether the pool of collectors grows or shrinks. I don't think it's likely to shrink enough to kill the value of high grade Tecs, etc., because there will still be a fair number of collectors competing for those for quite a while. It just seems probable that niche books are likely to fall by the wayside sooner. All it would take for certain titles to drop in value (versus recent sales) would be a couple of the right collectors retiring from the hobby and not being replaced.

[zosocane]

In response to OP's question, I look at the majority (not all) of GA books as flat growth generally speaking -- not susceptible to the price volatility you see with SA, but relatively flat. GA is heaven for true collectors. The books tend to be tough to find, and when you find what you've been looking for, it's a great feeling. Lots of fun. But room to grow on pricing? I think for 2014 and the few years following thereafter ... not likely.

 

SA, on the other hand, is volatile (tons of supply and demand) but with the Marvel movies (and now DC), there is investment opportunity. The Marvels are so easy to find; some of the DC SAs, less so. I now try to limit my Marvel SA purchases to white page-only books to make the thrill of the hunt more challenging.

 

I agree with the sentiments from others that be prepared to lose your principal and you'll then be prepared to enjoy your purchases. If one is doing it purely to make money and for no other reason (i.e., not for the love of the books), I would say you're better off playing the stock market.

[sfcityduck]

I know a guy who bought an action in the early 80s for around $6K. He has been offered about $200k. Even if he got $1M, the rate of return would be significantly less than if he had bought Nike stock (a business in his area that many people invested in) around the same time period or almost a decade later.

 

Seems like a lot of GA books are flat or decreasing. People give away Westerns. Folks on this board say that Fawcetts and Barks Ducks are dropping in price. Lots of really cool comics from the 50s seem frozen. The number of "hot" books, covers really, seems fairly small compared to the total number of comics published. So the whole idea of trying to formulate a generic "rate of return" seems foolish if you wnat to invest. You should be looking instead at a very small universe of investment worthy titles.

 

[Mmehdy]

 

 

OA art has replaced the "Gold" standard as the greatest rate of return in the hobby. If you were smart enough to buy early, you can make as much as 1000% return.

 

The real growth and smart money is going in OA as there is still a lot of room to grow and just look at the number of items in the upcoming ha auction, it 1300 OA items to 250 Ga comic books. OA is unique which gives it an advantage over books put in plastic.. A number of GA comics have hit the top and will forever be going on a downward trend in price. In other words, you are gonna lose money if you pay "market price today" even though you might get the book at the bargain price of 1/2 guide. The only think safe today in the GA is the keys and to a lesser extent the sub Keys. That is not limited to say Cap 1…I would include cap 1-10 as safe books.

 

The other factor is when you go to SELL them. If you sell to a dealer, he is gonna have to make a profit, which is ok. If you sell to an auction house, look for a 10-25% fee as well as shipping to them. So even if you book goes up…20% you are gonna lose money in the long run.

 

Buy what you like, enjoy it, collect it and don't worry about it. I agree with DM that condition is very important as well as the book itself.

[sfcityduck]

I largely got out of collecting comics to collect fine art. The great thing about what I collect now is that I can put it on a wall (in a museum quality archival framing), and enjoy it every day without fear of deterioration.

 

I suspect that the move to original art is a result of the trends started by CGC. Once you entomb a comic, you basically are making it into an overly large baseball card. It's all about the cover, with the interior no longer driving value. BUT, if that's the way you are going to view comics, what's the point of buying a comic in the first place? Lots of non-comic publications have cool covers. More logical yet, why not focus on art instead? Because the art is bigger, displays better, and is more robust. And once you start thinking about art, why buy "good girl" covers that are little more than pin-ups when you can buy full blown paintings from books covers, pulp covers or actual pin-ups? Which is what Mitch appears to have done.

 

I'm not shocked by the interest in art. Seems a logical progression and impact of CGC entombment.