X-men 94 selling for below guide

[sfilosa]

* The collecting community will dwindle to the point where a small group of affluent collectors will be competing for the relatively few high grade books with little other activity in the market.

 

 

Wouldn't you say that the ultra key books (i.e. books over $10K) are already selling to a small group of affluent collectors. Yet,the prices of those books countinue to go up.

 

The problem with SA/BA VF's is that they are common. Even the eys (i.e. ASM #1, X-Men #1, TOS #1, etc.) are fairly common. The main reason the keys continue to rise in price is that those books are the GRAIL books for many collectors.

 

My point is that there are still tons of collectors regardless of the fact that a FF #1 in NM would have been a $25K book 10 years ago and now would be over $100K book now.

[chrisco37]

Thanks Guys. I just had a offer sent too me. A CGC 9.6 White Pages for $575.. I know the guide value, and yes I got it, simply too hold onto for a while and flip... It

 

Am I missing something here?

 

You got an X-Men 94 CGC 9.6 for $575?

 

 

A scam solicitation perhaps?

 

Has to be.

[SpideySense-migration]

Thanks Guys. I just had a offer sent too me. A CGC 9.6 White Pages for $575.. I know the guide value, and yes I got it, simply too hold onto for a while and flip... It was a local guy I've done business with before.... Makes me wonder if it is just this book, or a indication of things too come??

 

At that price I would buy as many copies as this guy has. Heck, a single CGC 9.0 goes for about $600. Something very strange going on here.

[garthgantu]

I dunno. For your scenario to work out, it:

 

* implies that few collectors will ever be forced out at certain price levels and have to settle for lesser grades. Collectors will continue to pay more and more and more regardless of the cost.

 

OR

 

* The collecting community will dwindle to the point where a small group of affluent collectors will be competing for the relatively few high grade books with little other activity in the market.

 

 

I would agree that 8.0 and lesser books from the BA will have difficulty selling at guide (with a few exceptions) for the foreseeable future. But SA might be a different story, especially pre-1965. Many collectors will be (or are already) priced out of the market for 8.5 and above, and will eventually realize that the difference between an 8.0 and 9.0 may be a few NCB spine creases or a corner chip etc.

 

Just as in GA, where an 8.0 is still a gorgeous book, 7.5s and 8.0s will at some point be viewed as "high grade" for the vast majority of SA collectors who can't afford to pay $2,000 for a 9.0 but are happy to pay $500 for slightly lesser copy.

[sfilosa]

Just as in GA, where an 8.0 is still a gorgeous book, 7.5s and 8.0s will at some point be viewed as "high grade" for the vast majority of SA collectors who can't afford to pay $2,000 for a 9.0 but are happy to pay $500 for slightly lesser copy.

 

Allright. I'm willing to do a straight up trade for all my 9.0's for the same book in 8.0. This way when the price of the 9.0 gets too high (and no one will want it), I'll have an 8.0 that everyone will want.

[drbanner]

I dunno. For your scenario to work out, it:

 

* implies that few collectors will ever be forced out at certain price levels and have to settle for lesser grades. Collectors will continue to pay more and more and more regardless of the cost.

 

OR

 

* The collecting community will dwindle to the point where a small group of affluent collectors will be competing for the relatively few high grade books with little other activity in the market.

 

 

I would agree that 8.0 and lesser books from the BA will have difficulty selling at guide (with a few exceptions) for the foreseeable future. But SA might be a different story, especially pre-1965. Many collectors will be (or are already) priced out of the market for 8.5 and above, and will eventually realize that the difference between an 8.0 and 9.0 may be a few NCB spine creases or a corner chip etc.

 

Just as in GA, where an 8.0 is still a gorgeous book, 7.5s and 8.0s will at some point be viewed as "high grade" for the vast majority of SA collectors who can't afford to pay $2,000 for a 9.0 but are happy to pay $500 for slightly lesser copy.

 

This isn't a theory on what's going to happen nearly as much as it is an observation on what has been happening - price spreads between G:F:NM have been increasing since the spread was 1:2:3 in the early OS price guides.

 

OS says a 9.4 X-men 94 is worth approximately 2x what an 8.0 is worth, but real life (aka GPA) says a 9.4 X-men 94 is worth over 6x what an 8.0 is worth. GPA also shows that the spread between the two is greater now than it was back in '02.

 

In fact, only one copy (out of nearly 60 sold) of X-men 94 in 8.0 has sold above what the current OS price listing is, but not a single 9.4 X-men 94 has sold below current OS guide.

 

I agree that as you work your way backwards in time (BA - SA - GA) the spreads are likely to decrease as scarcity increases and the availability of ANY COPY comes into play. Post-1965 Marvels in VF and below are readily available at any show, convention, or decent back issue shop.

[Bonds25]

I just looked at my 1980 Overstreet guide, and X-Men #94 at that time guided for $15 in Good, $30 in Fine, and $60 in NM.

[FlyingDonut]

The spread will continue to increase, and is happening now. For the VAST majority of books published since 1975, the spread is (G-VG-F-VF-VF/NM-NM) in reality 1-1.2-1.5-2-5-10 (and climbing on the high end), and this shows no sign of declining.

 

What it points out to in reality is the continuing OVERvaluing of all books in grades under VF/NM by Overstreet. VG Silver is overvalued in the Guide by a huge huge percentage.

[skybolt]

I purchased an 8.0 F.F. #48 for $397 last year, which was over $200 less than the 2003 guide value. I noticed that the 2004 OS price guide dropped the VF value by over $100 the following year. The same could happen with X-Men #94 book in years to come.

 

I also recently bought a Conan the Barbarian #1 CGC 8.5 for $125, which is less than the $194 value stated in the guide. It is a buyer's market for SA VF+ and below books. Once prices hit bottom, the next wave of buyers and sellers will up the ante on these books and jack up the prices.

 

People change their minds about their collecing preferences over time. For instance, I used to be an MA collector for reading purposes only, but then started collecting them to gain a small profit. I then switched to mid grade SA and BA books, but decided to collect the higher grades instead (8.0 - 9.4). After a while I became interseted in super hero GA books in mid to high grade. Then, I became interested in good girl art books, so I started collecting them. What I'm getting at here, is that no one knows what people's preference would be in 5 years time. Perhaps, they'll become interested in mid grade GA books because of Batman and Superman films, and only have enough money left over to buy the VF, VF+ key SA books (which would increase their value).

[Mr. Zipper]

I also recently bought a Conan the Barbarian #1 CGC 8.5 for $125, which is less than the $194 value stated in the guide.

 

Nice pickup!

 

It is a buyer's market for SA VF+ and below books.

 

I keep hearing this, but why do I never see it on the auctions I'm bidding on?!?

 

 

That said, I did just get a FF Annual 1 in 6.0 with excellent eye appeal for $75.

[sfilosa]

I also recently bought a Conan the Barbarian #1 CGC 8.5 for $125, which is less than the $194 value stated in the guide.

 

And realize that it cost someone $30 to get graded. Therefore, the book it self sold for 50% of guide.

[skybolt]

I also recently bought a Conan the Barbarian #1 CGC 8.5 for $125, which is less than the $194 value stated in the guide.

 

And realize that it cost someone $30 to get graded. Therefore, the book it self sold for 50% of guide.

 

I see your point. I also have many SA books that I've purchased raw at 75% guide, received a grade much lower than expected from CGC, and still spent $30 to get them graded. Therefore, my return would be around 50-60%

CGC has its benefits and its downsides. It's kind of like gambling in Vegas, you'll have some great nights, but eventually wind up losing.

[dam60]

What it points out to in reality is the continuing OVERvaluing of all books in grades under VF/NM by Overstreet. VG Silver is overvalued in the Guide by a huge huge percentage.

 

Is this the general perception you guys think? Would that apply to SA DCs?

 

Thanks,

 

DAM

[skybolt]

What it points out to in reality is the continuing OVERvaluing of all books in grades under VF/NM by Overstreet. VG Silver is overvalued in the Guide by a huge huge percentage.

 

Is this the general perception you guys think? Would that apply to SA DCs?

 

Thanks,

 

DAM

 

I think that I would drop the cut off limit to VF for the DC SA books, since they are a lot scarcer in higher grade than Marvel. However, anything below that grade seems to come up pretty frequently on Ebay.

[october]

What it points out to in reality is the continuing OVERvaluing of all books in grades under VF/NM by Overstreet. VG Silver is overvalued in the Guide by a huge huge percentage.

 

Is this the general perception you guys think? Would that apply to SA DCs?

 

Thanks,

 

DAM

 

I collect late silver and bronze stuff from 6.0-8.5 and I almost never pay more than 50% of guide for anything, including keys. In fact, the few times I have paid close to guide were instances of gross over grading or the rare comic I really had to have. I would say I pay between 15 and 50 percent of Overstreet value on my EBay purchases and 30-70 percent of guide at shows. I tend to think that Overstreet is not over-valuing these books as much as the market is under-valuing them. I guess I like a nice VF at 50% of guide a lot better than a NM at 4x guide....I will take the extra 3 spine stresses. I am in the minority now, but I think that as high end slabs hit the stratosphere (as they have been doing) a lot more people will be looking at nice mid-grade and low high-grade. I do collect late silver DCs and the 50% rule applies to them as well. On EBay I have seen silver age Batman stuff in 3.0-5.0 go for next to nothing.

[WiseGuyX]

All I want to know is...Does anyone even have a 4.0 - 5.5 X-men 94 for cheap

[skybolt]

Another reason why VF+ and lower books sell for slightly less on Ebay than their higher grade counterparts is because of the seller.

 

The HG, key, pedigree books are usually being sold on Ebay by well known dealers and collectors with multiple feedbacks. People are much more willing to spend their money knowing that they'll actually receive the book, and in a timely manner. However, if an 8.5 SA book comes up for sale by an unknown with only 60 feedbacks, then most people wouldn't bid on that book (even if they're interested). Since a book like X-Men #94 is always available at the 8.5 grade, most buyers will wait and purchase it from a reputable seller even if they have to pay $30 more.

[skybolt]

All I want to know is...Does anyone even have a 4.0 - 5.5 X-men 94 for cheap

 

Actually, last year I purchased a raw X-Men #94 that was advertised as FN/VF for $175. I had it CGC graded and it came back a 5.5 PLOD (with very light color touch). What a waste of money. I later purchased an 8.5 for $470.

[sfilosa]

I guess I like a nice VF at 50% of guide a lot better than a NM at 4x guide....I will take the extra 3 spine stresses. I am in the minority now, but I think that as high end slabs hit the stratosphere (as they have been doing) a lot more people will be looking at nice mid-grade and low high-grade. I do collect late silver DCs and the 50% rule applies to them as well. On EBay I have seen silver age Batman stuff in 3.0-5.0 go for next to nothing.

 

Two quick points:

 

1) VF books don't have three extra spine stresses compared to NM. Maybe eight or ten and lots of other type of wear (i.e. corner creases, small tears in the overhang, small chips out and some fading of colors and gloss).

 

2) Go to any large national convention, and you could probably put together almost any SA/BA Marvel title in low to mid-grade ten times over. Trying put a high-grade run (i.e. 9.0) and there would be titles that you couldn't get half the books in that grade. DC would be harder in any condition.

 

POINT: The reason SABA books below 9.0 (other major keys) sell well below guide is because they are NOT SCARCE. Never have been, and never will (at least in our lifetime).

[garthgantu]

I also recently bought a Conan the Barbarian #1 CGC 8.5 for $125, which is less than the $194 value stated in the guide.

 

And realize that it cost someone $30 to get graded. Therefore, the book it self sold for 50% of guide.

 

Well, that's one way to look at it. I guess the seller would see it that way, but maybe not the buyer? Would the buyer have paid $125 for a raw VF+ copy? This may just be one of those instances in which the book shouldn't have been slabbed in the first place.