THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Iceman399]

On 1/20/2022 at 12:09 PM, blazingbob said:

No,  what is better is they give it back,  you show it to the person and they buy it with the other person right there.

I love the "I'll think about it buyer".  They come to the booth later that day asking to see the book they looked at earlier and its been sold.

Smile a little smile.

That is very true.  However we might just be mean people.

[Math Teacher]

On 1/20/2022 at 11:09 AM, blazingbob said:

No,  what is better is they give it back,  you show it to the person and they buy it with the other person right there.

I love the "I'll think about it buyer".  They come to the booth later that day asking to see the book they looked at earlier and its been sold.

Smile a little smile.

I agree with you. 

[PKJ]

On 1/20/2022 at 9:12 AM, G.A.tor said:

Having been on both sides of the table, third party observations/comments should be kept to themselves until such a time as party 1/2 have parted ways. Definitely bad form at a convention to make any comments (positive or negative) about a book/transaction one is not involved in. 

What if you yell "Go Dawgs" first? That makes it ok right?

[G.A.tor]

On 1/20/2022 at 1:38 PM, PKJ said:

What if you yell "Go Dawgs" first? That makes it ok right?

No sale 

[G.A.tor]

On 1/20/2022 at 9:31 AM, peewee22 said:

Any privacy at all for either parties? If in a “more private” setting yeah I understand. But walk ups that see discussions on the book in open form, including me, may comment on the book. I guess I have bad form.😩

Now you know Bad convention etiquette. If you are not part of the discussion no need to interject yourself or opinion …some deals can happen behind the table at a con, but most times it’s not logistically possible. Obviously I’m not talking about a book on a dealers wall, but a book where it is clear a seller and potential buyer are in a discussion. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by G.A.tor

[G.A.tor]

On 1/20/2022 at 11:15 AM, Professor K said:

Definitely. But to be clear I didn't exclaim "Nice Book!",  I said it kind of quiet right to him. I don't think the dealer even heard it. 

My response was more a PSA for the general public. But even then, I personally wouldn’t want to have someone I don’t know say anything to me, positive or negative, as a buyer or seller when any type of business or negotiations are in progress … @NoManknows it’s common sense not to, but apparently some don’t. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by G.A.tor

[peewee22]

On 1/20/2022 at 12:46 PM, G.A.tor said:

Now you know Bad convention etiquette. If you are not part of the discussion no need to interject yourself or opinion …some deals can happen behind the table at a con, but most times it’s not logistically possible. Obviously I’m not talking about a book on a dealers wall, but a book where it is clear a seller and potential buyer are in a discussion. 

I may want the book.

[G.A.tor]

On 1/20/2022 at 2:13 PM, peewee22 said:

I may want the book.

Wait your turn mister 

[peewee22]

On 1/20/2022 at 1:18 PM, G.A.tor said:

Wait your turn mister 

i tip good.

[G.A.tor]

On 1/20/2022 at 2:24 PM, peewee22 said:

i tip good.

Ha

[peewee22]

On 1/20/2022 at 2:40 AM, Primetime said:

my first copy was a raw Fair at a LCS for $200 in the mid 90s  I sold it a year or so later to a collector at a gas station for $700

We all remember our first time I mean AF15.  Mine was a beat up taped fair copy for $75 I got from Collector's Edition Comics in Little Rock AR in 1986. I've always wondered what happened to it after it left me. I wish I still had it to place beside the book I have (Then and Now). I'm a very blessed and grateful collector.

Edited January 20, 2022 by peewee22

[badback83]

On 1/20/2022 at 12:09 PM, blazingbob said:

No,  what is better is they give it back,  you show it to the person and they buy it with the other person right there.

I’ve been the buyer in this situation several times.  I have to admit, I get a slightly sick pleasure from it.  The glare I get when I buy it with the person who put it back standing right next to me is such an amazing feeling.

[DC#]

Was curious as to prior spikes of this book and the corrections that followed.   Perhaps this line of questioning is mostly attributable to my frustration at waffling on a potential purchase last winter......

But I do think the laws of physics and markets will apply here at some point - what goes up will come down.   

In a 4.0 grade - the book was selling for right at $13k in Jan 2016.   By June of 2017 it was up 170% to $35k.    It then saw a 43% drop to $20k by May 2019.    So a little over three years on the roller coaster to land 54% higher than Jan 2016 (which is a very healthy return).    As of Jan 2022 - a 4.0 is up 211% from than May 2019 trough of $20k.

In a 2.5 - the book was selling for $10k in Jan 2016 and increased 60% to $16k by June 2017.   Then dropped by only 20% to land a $13k by May 2019.     As of Jan 2022 - a 2.5 is 246% above that May 2019 trough.   

Question as always is how much higher it goes before peaking and how much it corrects?   And will the more aggressive growth this time lead to a more aggressive correction?   No bets from me....just pondering.     In the last example it was around a 18 month rise followed by a 24 month descent.  

 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/21/2022 at 3:44 AM, DC# said:

Was curious as to prior spikes of this book and the corrections that followed.   Perhaps this line of questioning is mostly attributable to my frustration at waffling on a potential purchase last winter......

But I do think the laws of physics and markets will apply here at some point - what goes up will come down.   

In a 4.0 grade - the book was selling for right at $13k in Jan 2016.   By June of 2017 it was up 170% to $35k.    It then saw a 43% drop to $20k by May 2019.    So a little over three years on the roller coaster to land 54% higher than Jan 2016 (which is a very healthy return).    As of Jan 2022 - a 4.0 is up 211% from than May 2019 trough of $20k.

In a 2.5 - the book was selling for $10k in Jan 2016 and increased 60% to $16k by June 2017.   Then dropped by only 20% to land a $13k by May 2019.     As of Jan 2022 - a 2.5 is 246% above that May 2019 trough.   

Question as always is how much higher it goes before peaking and how much it corrects?   And will the more aggressive growth this time lead to a more aggressive correction?   No bets from me....just pondering.     In the last example it was around a 18 month rise followed by a 24 month descent.  

 

Asking myself this question on a daily basis about the market in general.  I have continued to buy aggressively despite how much it hurts, but I would love it to start hurting less.

[UncleBEN]

On 1/21/2022 at 1:58 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Hope this input helps. My honest opinion after collecting for over 40 years is this. If it was any other book in the silver age I would be worried about such a rise in price. But AF15 is that one exception. Spiderman is loved worldwide. To me it goes like this best book in the entire SA goes to AF15 and best team of the entire SA goes to X-Men 1.

I doubt it will lower much in value and at some point it may stay still for years value wise in most grades. Then one day it may explode again or not we will have to wait for that. I know the T206 Honus Wagner baseball card stayed put for years and years in say PSA 1 at 450k to 550k now it is a 2$ million dollar card or more in the same grade. Will this happen to AF15 no one knows that is the truth.

I do not think Hulk 1 or any other book for that matter will be even close to AF15 in the SA that time has changed. I no longer see it as AF15 and Hulk 1 playing catch up like AC1 and TEC27. AF15 is in a league of its own and it will take a whole lot for any book to near it in the future.

 

Feels like Deja Vu on this thread again.  

[KCOComics]

On 1/21/2022 at 3:44 AM, DC# said:

Was curious as to prior spikes of this book and the corrections that followed.   Perhaps this line of questioning is mostly attributable to my frustration at waffling on a potential purchase last winter......

But I do think the laws of physics and markets will apply here at some point - what goes up will come down.   

In a 4.0 grade - the book was selling for right at $13k in Jan 2016.   By June of 2017 it was up 170% to $35k.    It then saw a 43% drop to $20k by May 2019.    So a little over three years on the roller coaster to land 54% higher than Jan 2016 (which is a very healthy return).    As of Jan 2022 - a 4.0 is up 211% from than May 2019 trough of $20k.

In a 2.5 - the book was selling for $10k in Jan 2016 and increased 60% to $16k by June 2017.   Then dropped by only 20% to land a $13k by May 2019.     As of Jan 2022 - a 2.5 is 246% above that May 2019 trough.   

Question as always is how much higher it goes before peaking and how much it corrects?   And will the more aggressive growth this time lead to a more aggressive correction?   No bets from me....just pondering.     In the last example it was around a 18 month rise followed by a 24 month descent.  

 

This is a great post. Love the research. 

Its funny how perception and reality aren't always aligned. The last time AF15 was red hot like this (2017), my perception was prices never came back down. I felt like they shot up like crazy and plateaued for 5 years or so.

It looks like that wasn't actually the case. Hopefully history will repeat itself and I'll get a chance to upgrade my copy. 

[DC#]

On 1/21/2022 at 1:58 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Hope this input helps. My honest opinion after collecting for over 40 years is this. If it was any other book in the silver age I would be worried about such a rise in price. But AF15 is that one exception. Spiderman is loved worldwide. To me it goes like this best book in the entire SA goes to AF15 and best team of the entire SA goes to X-Men 1.

I doubt it will lower much in value and at some point it may stay still for years value wise in most grades. Then one day it may explode again or not we will have to wait for that. I know the T206 Honus Wagner baseball card stayed put for years and years in say PSA 1 at 450k to 550k now it is a 2$ million dollar card or more in the same grade. Will this happen to AF15 no one knows that is the truth.

I do not think Hulk 1 or any other book for that matter will be even close to AF15 in the SA that time has changed. I no longer see it as AF15 and Hulk 1 playing catch up like AC1 and TEC27. AF15 is in a league of its own and it will take a whole lot for any book to near it in the future.

 

Since I know there was extensive debate here earlier on Action 1 vs AF15, I will tie that into your baseball card example.    There are less than 60 known Honus Wagner T206 cards in existence with the highest PSA grade of a single card at 8.0 with the next card a 5.0.     One might say Honus is the Action #1 of baseball cards as their scarcity and available grade range is very similar.   

One might also pose that 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle is the AF15 of baseball cards.   PSA has graded close to 1500 of them with likely that many more across other grading companies or raw.   PSA has graded 3 10s and 6 9.0s with a lot available in the mid ranges.  Again - very consistent in terms of scarcity to AF15 and like AF more copies available in all grade ranges.   

Both cards are highly prized by collectors.   Though I would argue Mantle is the more popular of the two given there are still collectors around who actually saw mantle play.  And collectors actually have a shot at a mantle to some degree.

With all that - I don’t know the full price history of Action 1 or even Tec 27 but it is not hard to imagine that downturns are rare if not non-existent.    Especially over the past 20-30 years.   They don’t change hands enough to really be impacted by weak cycles that more plentiful books might see.   Same with Honus.

But there are enough copies of Mantle circulating that it can be impacted by up and down cycles.    There is always a buyer for a mantle when it comes on the market - but that doesn’t meant it can’t decline,   

 Below is a chart of PSA 6 52 Mantle auction sales going back to 2006.   Despite being one of the most desired and chased after cards - there is volatility and it does have down periods.  
 

Consumer confidence (buyer and seller) is a very fragile thing    It only takes a small number of sellers that, for whatever reason,  become willing to sell for a price that does not extend the rally or even starts showing a downturn , to change perception and expectations within a market (as Netflix shareholders today what happens when perceptions flip overnight)   

I am not trying to predict anything with AF15.  And sure not saying it would have the same level of up and down as The Mick.  If I had those talents I wouldn’t waste my time with comic book collectors forums     Just saying it would not be at all surprising to see down periods in the future even if the overall trend line remains upward.   
 

 

[chrisco37]

On 1/22/2022 at 2:51 AM, DC# said:

Since I know there was extensive debate here earlier on Action 1 vs AF15, I will tie that into your baseball card example.    There are less than 60 known Honus Wagner T206 cards in existence with the highest PSA grade of a single card at 8.0 with the next card a 5.0.     One might say Honus is the Action #1 of baseball cards as their scarcity and available grade range is very similar.   

One might also pose that 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle is the AF15 of baseball cards.   PSA has graded close to 1500 of them with likely that many more across other grading companies or raw.   PSA has graded 3 10s and 6 9.0s with a lot available in the mid ranges.  Again - very consistent in terms of scarcity to AF15 and like AF more copies available in all grade ranges.   

Both cards are highly prized by collectors.   Though I would argue Mantle is the more popular of the two given there are still collectors around who actually saw mantle play.  And collectors actually have a shot at a mantle to some degree.

With all that - I don’t know the full price history of Action 1 or even Tec 27 but it is not hard to imagine that downturns are rare if not non-existent.    Especially over the past 20-30 years.   They don’t change hands enough to really be impacted by weak cycles that more plentiful books might see.   Same with Honus.

But there are enough copies of Mantle circulating that it can be impacted by up and down cycles.    There is always a buyer for a mantle when it comes on the market - but that doesn’t meant it can’t decline,   

 Below is a chart of PSA 6 52 Mantle auction sales going back to 2006.   Despite being one of the most desired and chased after cards - there is volatility and it does have down periods.  
 

Consumer confidence (buyer and seller) is a very fragile thing    It only takes a small number of sellers that, for whatever reason,  become willing to sell for a price that does not extend the rally or even starts showing a downturn , to change perception and expectations within a market (as Netflix shareholders today what happens when perceptions flip overnight)   

I am not trying to predict anything with AF15.  And sure not saying it would have the same level of up and down as The Mick.  If I had those talents I wouldn’t waste my time with comic book collectors forums     Just saying it would not be at all surprising to see down periods in the future even if the overall trend line remains upward.   
 

 

Good post.  Thanks for the chart.

I think the thing to remember is that, even if you buy at the top of a run up and HOLD the book you will, most likely, come out on top.  Even if it dips a bit in the interim, the trend is that it will fly past your buy price on the next run.

If you’re just buying to flip there’s always a chance you get burned.  Especially on a book like AF15 where you are going to ponying up a bunch of money just to acquire it.

I bought my copy for a near gpa high 8.5 years ago.  Since then, the book has had spikes & dips.  But I’ve held it so long that even if the bottom falls out on this most recent run (in this example, let’s say prices drop 50% from their current numbers), I’d be so far into the “black” that, while it would be a bit disappointing, it would still have been a very solid investment with a near 200+% return.

[Math Teacher]

On 1/22/2022 at 5:14 AM, chrisco37 said:

I think the thing to remember is that, even if you buy at the top of a run up and HOLD the book you will, most likely, come out on top.  Even if it dips a bit in the interim, the trend is that it will fly past your buy price on the next run.

So AF #15 is not unlike the stock market.

[DC#]

Out of curiosity I just looked at eBay - for anyone with the resources there are 17 1952 Mantles up for sale as of today (a few more available in sets) and there are 18 AF15 (noting two of those are pence copies and there were a few purple labels).    For both there are even more available on respective auction houses (PWCC, Goldin, Heritage, etc)
I believe another member made a similar point earlier - probably any of us could have our hands on Mamtle/AF15 in under a week if that was our mission.    Conversely, even if you have the money it is really difficult to acquire an Action 1 or T206 Wagner.   That makes a huge difference in how the market for those items will behave.