THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[peewee22]

8 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Price <> value.  Price is what you pay, value is what you get.  Most people can't tell the difference anymore, but, you can bet they will learn this lesson in time.

 Just because something is at record highs does not necessarily mean it's overvalued.  But, in this case, yes, you are right. 

Is Action 1 overvalued, too? I mean, 3 mil for a GA comic surely implies this if 261k implies this for a SA book.

Edited October 23, 2017 by peewee22

[delekkerste]

2 hours ago, peewee22 said:

Is Action 1 overvalued, too?

Yes. 

[comicquant]

9 hours ago, delekkerste said:

MASTERCARD = OVERVALUED

AF #15 = OVERVALUED

I agree on both counts but any collectible can't be over or under valued as can stock in a company.  There's a fundamental difference between perceived value and intrinsic value (like a stock...  Value is a determinable function of past, present and future earnings) and any collectible out there only has a perceived value.  If you truly want to put a value on a comic book its the cost of materials, so any comic book from the silver age sold in the last 50 years is considered over valued.  Its entirely possible for someone to walk into a garage sale in the middle of nowhere Kansas and find the world's most pristine AF15 and buy it for a $1 because the owner perceives the book as some worthless piece of paper.  Same reason why M.J. Heade's paintings were bought for $5 at a garage sale and sold a few months later for several million a piece.  Whether its dilution or an economic catalyst a pull-back is inevitable but realistically it seems like a decent portion of people who can afford an AF15 don't really care why or when it happens which in its own right can keep the price of the book where its at.  

Edited October 23, 2017 by comicquant

[Spyderfan]

+1

[SC22]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

Yes. 

Sure it is then one day one will sell for 10$ million dollars then one day it will sell for more than that. I don't even own one and I can say this with confidence. All top GA and SA will continue to grow over time (there will be ups and downs but in the end the ups will prevail) it has become like art (funny it is art) and yes I know the debate but art has only 1 single copy of the original big deal......people love comic books and the heroes have become a worldwide phenomenon. That is not going to change unless the whole world comes to some kind of end.

Comics will stand the test of time there are just to many things going for this hobby!! Some other hobbies will fall like stamp collecting but how much fun is that hobby for kids born today. Kids love heroes and always will. And oh yeah some of us adults do to!!

Edited October 23, 2017 by SC22

[blazingbob]

So is the art you buy but you still buy it.

 

[Kevin76]

39 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

So is the art you buy but you still buy it.

 

He just uses the old "Buy what you love" excuse, since the real money to be made is in gold/silver stocks. As well as overpriced cars.  

[exitmusicblue]

The CGC 2.0 SS on Heritage went for over 13k despite a big chunk off of the top right corner... sweet

[SC22]

23 minutes ago, exitmusicblue said:

The CGC 2.0 SS on Heritage went for over 13k despite a big chunk off of the top right corner... sweet

So much  for the world falling down!!

[exitmusicblue]

5 minutes ago, SC22 said:

So much  for the world falling down!!

It certainly has moved on from when I paid for mine

Edited October 23, 2017 by exitmusicblue

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, delekkerste said:

9 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, isn't both the entire stock market and comic book markets pretty much overvalued at these record high levels? 

 Just because something is at record highs does not necessarily mean it's overvalued.  But, in this case, yes, you are right. 

  At long last, I finally managed to get something right!!! 

[Glassman10]

Indeed, it's perfectly OK to shout "Fire" in a crowded theater as long as you're the first one to do it. 

[delekkerste]

9 hours ago, blazingbob said:

So is the art you buy but you still buy it.

 

I agree that comic art is overvalued too - I believe I said as much somewhere earlier in this thread.  That said, you are wrong that I'm still buying it - I stopped buying in 2015; everything I've acquired since then has been in trade for other pieces (whether direct trade or selling to buy).  In fact, I have been actively selling over the past 18 months or so.  IMO, we will look back in 5-10 years and realize that 2016-2018 was a GREAT time to have been selling assets at overinflated valuations.  Today, it's all about fear of missing out.  Within a couple of years, it will be back to fear of loss. 

Plus, let's face it - if all my art went to zero, I would still be fine (unhappy, but financially still perfectly fine).  Not sure the same can be said of all the would-be Warren Buffetts out there whose retirement funds largely consist of overinflated collectibles.

10 hours ago, comicquant said:

I agree on both counts but any collectible can't be over or under valued as can stock in a company.  There's a fundamental difference between perceived value and intrinsic value (like a stock...  Value is a determinable function of past, present and future earnings) and any collectible out there only has a perceived value.  

I don't think that intrinsic value is a meaningful concept when it comes to art/collectibles.  Yes, you're right - we can "prove" that a security with measurable cash flows is overvalued or not, but, a collectible is worth whatever someone will pay for it.  That said, there are numerous metrics you can look at over time, such as price to avg. income, historical return vs. inflation rate (sustainable or due for mean reversion?), price vs. other tangible assets and, together, you can come to an informed opinion.  

8 hours ago, Kevin76 said:

He just uses the old "Buy what you love" excuse, since the real money to be made is in gold/silver stocks. As well as overpriced cars.  

1.  I don't invest in art.

2.  I don't invest in gold/silver stocks (I occasionally trade them, though, as I do numerous other stocks).

3.  I don't invest in cars (overpriced or not). 

4.  Any other questions?

1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

Indeed, it's perfectly OK to shout "Fire" in a crowded theater as long as you're the first one to do it. 

My buddy left his senior post at your favorite credit card company this summer.  He knows the stock is stupidly overvalued and is just being pushed up by lemming fund managers who "have to own it" (until they don't...)  I'd trust his judgment over that sheep analyst's at Mo-ron Stanley any day.  Smart money doesn't stick around and try to wring every cent out of an unsustainably overvalued stock.  Maybe it keeps going up for a while, but, when we look back in 5 years, I think my friend will look very good bailing out when he did.  

I don't think buying most assets at present (over)valuations is going to result in the kind of returns people are hoping for over the next 5-10 years.  We're in the Everything Bubble...caveat emptor. 

Edited October 23, 2017 by delekkerste

[Jordysnordy]

16 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I agree that comic art is overvalued too - I believe I said as much somewhere earlier in this thread.  That said, you are wrong that I'm still buying it - I stopped buying in 2015; everything I've acquired since then has been in trade for other pieces (whether direct trade or selling to buy).  In fact, I have been actively selling over the past 18 months or so.  IMO, we will look back in 5-10 years and realize that 2016-2018 was a GREAT time to have been selling assets at overinflated valuations.  Today, it's all about fear of missing out.  Within a couple of years, it will be back to fear of loss. 

Plus, let's face it - if all my art went to zero, I would still be fine (unhappy, but financially still perfectly fine).  Not sure the same can be said of all the would-be Warren Buffetts out there whose retirement funds largely consist of overinflated collectibles.

I don't think that intrinsic value is a meaningful concept when it comes to art/collectibles.  Yes, you're right - we can "prove" that a security with measurable cash flows is overvalued or not, but, a collectible is worth whatever someone will pay for it.  That said, there are numerous metrics you can look at over time, such as price to avg. income, historical return vs. inflation rate (sustainable or due for mean reversion?), price vs. other tangible assets and, together, you can come to an informed opinion.  

1.  I don't invest in art.

2.  I don't invest in gold/silver stocks (I occasionally trade them, though, as I do numerous other stocks).

3.  I don't invest in cars (overpriced or not). 

4.  Any other questions?

My buddy left his senior post at your favorite credit card company this summer.  He knows the stock is stupidly overvalued and is just being pushed up by lemming fund managers who "have to own it" (until they don't...)  I'd trust his judgment over that sheep analyst's at Mo-ron Stanley any day.  Smart money doesn't stick around and try to wring every cent out of an unsustainably overvalued stock.  Maybe it keeps going up for a while, but, when we look back in 5 years, I think my friend will look very good bailing out when he did.  

I don't think buying most assets at present (over)valuations is going to result in the kind of returns people are hoping for over the next 5-10 years.  We're in the Everything Bubble...caveat emptor. 

I think this feeling, in part, is why we are seeing so many high grade copies of AF15 up for sale now. Cash out at a high price point, and later on re-buy if prices stumble a bit and if prices don't come down, you have made very good money and can be happy with that.

[delekkerste]

9 hours ago, SC22 said:

Comics will stand the test of time there are just to many things going for this hobby!! Some other hobbies will fall like stamp collecting but how much fun is that hobby for kids born today. Kids love heroes and always will. And oh yeah some of us adults do to!!

I love comics, but I think all of you are nuts if you think that the Millennials and the generation coming up behind them will have both the aggregate interest and financial resources to be able to clear the market at ever-escalating prices in the coming decade or two.  

Baby Boomer + Gen X comic holdings > younger generations' current + future projected financial resources

Baby Boomer + Gen X comic interest > younger generations' comic interest (having been splintered in a near-infinite # of directions post-1995)

It may not matter day to day; it's not going to stop Bob from strutting around like he was employee #3 at Facebook because business is so good, at least not anytime soon.  But, I sincerely hope everyone here lives long enough to see the next generational changeover, when the Millennials and younger generations take over from the current generations who own the bulk of the best comics by value.  You will see Economics 101 in action, when supply > demand and prices have to fall to clear the market.  There are cycles that occur over different timeframes; what appears to most as an eternal bull market in comics is really just the nostalgia of a few generations, having lived as kids through times when comics were still very relevant (i.e., pre-1996).  Yes, the franchises are more relevant than ever, but, the kids born in the era of billion-dollar blockbusters coupled with 50,000 copy circulations is not going to go back in any kind of numbers to buy up back issues that cost as much as the downpayment on the houses they already can't afford.  

In my little sector of the hobby (comic art), you can already see it somewhat.  Almost all of the major collectors are 45 and over.  And, the ones that are younger have tastes which reflect that, preferring late '80s, '90s and '00s art and largely eschewing the stuff that's considered the gold standard of the hobby ('60s/'70s/early '80s mainstream art).  Much as the 40 and 50-something collectors today are not as interested in Frazetta, strip art and Golden Age classics that were all among the most expensive art in the hobby 25-30 years ago (Frazetta still is, but that's a very niche market with its own dynamics).  And, the even younger collectors are all obsessing over the best of the 2010s decade art, which might as well be a different hobby altogether - people buying up Greg Capullo and Sean Murphy art are never going to go back and buy Jack Kirby or John Byrne.

Pop culture is of its time.  I don't disagree that Spider-Man is going to stay relevant for years, even decades, to come.  I don't buy into the comic collector mentality that this means that more and more people will clamor for AF #15s at ever-escalating prices, though, especially once the Gen Xers age out.   

Edited October 23, 2017 by delekkerste

[Glassman10]

It well could be the case that dollars just aren't worth what they once were. running a hedge fund creates a Gecko kind of mentality. I made a fair amount of the glass in background shots for that movie. , I think of a child of a friend who indeed did collect art. He asked his mom if he could use her second home and sell it to invest. She said fine but he had to pay the taxes, which he didn't. The IRS descended on my friend who essentially lost everything in that process and the son went to prison for three years. 

Risk is a strange thing. You never know you've taken risk until things explode. I view paying 430K for a comic book as serious risk.  I sold my collection.  That being said, I don't trust blanket judgements.  I still want some Dr Strange , just to read.  No slabs. 

I see what you say in the Gen X interest in more substantive art. They have no interest at all. The Iphone is the bling of the day. My son wants me to slab a few low value Thor's so he can decorate a wall with them but has no interest in seeing a museum  or theater at all. I find that sad and might hope that it will take a generation skip to make valuing that stuff come back, but perhaps not. Anytime a 1979 Ford Taurus gets listed in the "Antiques and Classics" section of the want ads, my head spins. 

Edited October 23, 2017 by Glassman10

[Sweet Lou 14]

7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I love comics, but I think all of you are nuts if you think that the Millennials and the generation coming up behind them will have both the aggregate interest and financial resources to be able to clear the market at ever-escalating prices in the coming decade or two.  

Baby Boomer + Gen X comic holdings > younger generations' current + future projected financial resources

Baby Boomer + Gen X comic interest > younger generations' comic interest (having been splintered in a near-infinite # of directions post-1995)

It may not matter day to day; it's not going to stop Bob from strutting around like he was employee #3 at Facebook because business is so good, at least not anytime soon.  But, I sincerely hope everyone here lives long enough to see the next generational changeover, when the Millennials and younger generations take over from the current generations who own the bulk of the best comics by value.  You will see Economics 101 in action, when supply > demand and prices have to fall to clear the market.  There are cycles that occur over different timeframes; what appears to most as an eternal bull market in comics is really just the nostalgia of a few generations, having lived as kids through times when comics were still very relevant (i.e., pre-1996).  Yes, the franchises are more relevant than ever, but, the kids born in the era of billion-dollar blockbusters coupled with 50,000 copy circulations is not going to go back in any kind of numbers to buy up back issues that cost as much as the downpayment on the houses they already can't afford.  

In my little sector of the hobby (comic art), you can already see it somewhat.  Almost all of the major collectors are 45 and over.  And, the ones that are younger have tastes which reflect that, preferring late '80s, '90s and '00s art and largely eschewing the stuff that's considered the gold standard of the hobby ('60s/'70s/early '80s mainstream art).  Much as the 40 and 50-something collectors today are not as interested in Frazetta, strip art and Golden Age classics that were all among the most expensive art in the hobby 25-30 years ago (Frazetta still is, but that's a very niche market with its own dynamics).  And, the even younger collectors are all obsessing over the best of the 2010s decade art, which might as well be a different hobby altogether - people buying up Greg Capullo and Sean Murphy art are never going to go back and buy Jack Kirby or John Byrne.

Pop culture is of its time.  I don't disagree that Spider-Man is going to stay relevant for years, even decades, to come.  I don't buy into the comic collector mentality that this means that more and more people will clamor for AF #15s at ever-escalating prices, though, especially once the Gen Xers age out.   

This is an extremely well-reasoned argument.  Thank you for posting.

I am curious to get your thoughts though on the continued strength of Golden Age keys despite the fact that the people who were around when Action #1 and Detective #27 hit the newsstands are mostly long gone.  The Baby Boomer generation and those that followed (I am Gen X) knew Superman and Batman first as TV and movie characters, and only later in life did those with the means decide that they simply had to have those early comic books that got it all started.  I am hopeful that younger generations will have a similar attitude toward the best of what the Silver Age has to offer.

One of the threads running through your post seems to be a general bearishness (at least in the short- to medium-term) about the economy, and the question of whether these new generations will be as well-off as those who came before.  This is a very important question, and my personal feeling is that things will get worse before they get better.  I feel fortunate that I am still a couple of decades from retirement because while I have no crystal ball, I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see another significant downturn in the market (stocks, real estate, you name it) to reflect the underlying struggles that most Americans (the ones that don't own collectibles or stocks or even their own home) are already facing.

With all of that said, I distinctly remember in 2007 and 2008 hoping that a drop in comic book prices would be some kind of silver lining to what was going on in my stock portfolio.  I was hoping to be a buyer in a down market.  I never really saw much evidence that comics ever took a hit during that period, though.  Admittedly I was not able to afford mega-keys at the time but the books I was buying held their prices or continued to steadily rise.  So I'm not sure exactly what to expect for comics going forward but I do agree with your primary thesis that it would be very risky to put all of your eggs in this particular basket or any other.

[Glassman10]

probably worth going back to that man who made national news buying Action #1 for $1800 dollars.  I forget his name but it certainly was questioned at the time and it wasn't that long ago.  Mid '70's?

[delekkerste]

12 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

probably worth going back to that man who made national news buying Action #1 for $1800 dollars.  I forget his name but it certainly was questioned at the time and it wasn't that long ago.  Mid '70's?

Mitch Mehdy.  He is a friend of mine and is much less crazy in person than he sometimes appears on the Boards.  

[delekkerste]

19 minutes ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

This is an extremely well-reasoned argument.  Thank you for posting.

I am curious to get your thoughts though on the continued strength of Golden Age keys despite the fact that the people who were around when Action #1 and Detective #27 hit the newsstands are mostly long gone.  

One of the threads running through your post seems to be a general bearishness (at least in the short- to medium-term) about the economy, and the question of whether these new generations will be as well-off as those who came before.  T

With all of that said, I distinctly remember in 2007 and 2008 hoping that a drop in comic book prices would be some kind of silver lining to what was going on in my stock portfolio. 

Regarding Golden Age keys, I think there is a misunderstanding to some degree as to what constitutes "nostalgia".  True, no one collecting today was around when Action #1 and Tec #27 hit the newsstands, much as no one was around when the T-206 Honus Wagner baseball card came out, and few were around even when the 1952 Topps Mantle card came out.  But, even as kids, we learned from older collectors/dealers/hobbyists that these were the cornerstones of their respective hobbies, the Holy Grails as they were.  What serious comic collector, young or old, doesn't know about the importance of Action #1 or AF #15?  I think there is inherited and shared knowledge there that transcends direct nostalgia; in fact, that becomes a sort of nostalgia unto itself, longing for those things that you were told were the best and largely unobtainable at a young age.  

Of course, it also helps that many of these GA characters are still very actively marketed properties.  In my hobby (original art), early Batman and Superman art can still fetch really good money; pages from Fiction House books or pre-code horror, however, often fetch less than pages that were just drawn a week ago for an audience that is minuscule compared to what they were back in the day.  They are historical roadkill for the most part.  My belief is that, given the exponential rise in content production in the current day and age, more things than ever will fall by the wayside in the coming years/decades than we have ever seen before.  

Regarding the economy, the current expansion is already the 3rd longest in history and the bull market is 8 1/2 years old at this point and has taken those assets with measurable valuations (like stocks) to levels comparable only with the most overvalued periods in history (1929, 2000, 2007).  So, yes, I do think that the current level of complacency and optimism about future growth and asset price returns is unwarranted.  Though, neither I nor anyone else can pinpoint exactly how high things might go first or how long it will last, just that it's not going to end well, because it never has.  Most people never in their lives grasp the concept/reality that it's not just what you buy, it's when you buy.  Buying stocks in 1929?  Bad move.  Buying stocks in 2009?  Great move.  Buying Basquiats at $100K in 1991?  Good move.  Buying Basquiats at $110 million in 2017?  Jury's still out, but, I'm guessing that's probably not the best use of one's money.  Buying Bitcoin at $200 a few years ago?  Good move.  Buying Bitcoin at $6K now?  We'll see.  Buying AF #15s at 2009 prices?  Good move.  Buying AF #15s at 2017 prices?  Let's look back in a few years and see how that turns out.

Regarding the last recession, the reality is that the scary part of it (September 2008 to March 2009) was over so quickly that prices didn't move much, and the reflation that ensued was so quick and strong that the downturn was over in the blink of an eye.  That said, I think it's dead wrong to think that the market wasn't affected.  Do people really think that whatever price comics fetched in March 2009 wouldn't have been higher when people were partying like it was 1999 in July 2008 at the SDCC?  Does anyone think that, if they liquidated their collections in early 2009 that they would have gotten as much or more than in July 2008?  I think it's dangerous to think from the 2008-9 experience that comics are not pro-cyclical, especially at current inflated valuations.  The same factors (easy money, fear of missing out, overconfidence, complacency, greed) that are pushing up stock and property prices are also pushing up AF #15 values.  I wouldn't count on valuations holding up so well in the next downturn.