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Heritage May 2014

Started by DocR,

482 posts in this topic

Nexus

Nexus

Posted
Posted
I'll go a step further and say there's a good 85-90% chance that the winner will be the one who doesn't believe in price discovery.

 

Wait, that doesn't narrow things down any. Never mind. :insane::baiting:

 

Seems to be a fair amount of early bidding going on, both on the Hulk #180 page and a number of other lots.* (shrug)

 

 

 

* And, no, I'm neither the high bidder nor the underbidder on any significant lots...I'm largely sitting this auction out! :popcorn:

 

Sure, there are always early bidders. It's just unlikely that any of them will end up winners, especially for a megalot like the HULK #180. Again, none of the BSDs I know (besides you) believes in (let alone practices) price discovery for OA auctions.

 

An early congrats to the eventual winner of Wolverine's first appearance-- it's simply awesome. Condolences, though, on the thrill bidders driving the price up on you.

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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Is this going to be a situation where all the bidding takes place early and almost no action on the final day? This happened with the ASM 121 cover and the Calvin and Hobbes color piece.

 

I suspect there's still a decent number of bids to come, but I wouldn't stake my life or fortune on that. I think anyone thinking it's still safe to thrill-bid here is taking their life into their own hands. 2c

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tth2

tth2

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An early congrats to the eventual winner of Wolverine's first appearance-- it's simply awesome. Condolences, though, on the thrill bidders driving the price up on you.

The thrill bidders won`t make any difference in the end. The players who really want this piece are going to bid their max and then we`ll see where the dust settles. The final price will not be impacted by the thrill bids at all.

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innocuous

innocuous

Posted
Posted
An early congrats to the eventual winner of Wolverine's first appearance-- it's simply awesome. Condolences, though, on the thrill bidders driving the price up on you.

The thrill bidders won`t make any difference in the end. The players who really want this piece are going to bid their max and then we`ll see where the dust settles. The final price will not be impacted by the thrill bids at all.

Yep. It shot up so fast, I didn't have time to thrill bid so I could tell my friends I almost won it. The thrill bidders are scared away by now. :sorry:
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Nexus

Nexus

Posted
Posted
An early congrats to the eventual winner of Wolverine's first appearance-- it's simply awesome. Condolences, though, on the thrill bidders driving the price up on you.

The thrill bidders won`t make any difference in the end. The players who really want this piece are going to bid their max and then we`ll see where the dust settles. The final price will not be impacted by the thrill bids at all.

 

Any bidding activity will influence our max estimates (including for the real players) heading into the live auction session, especially for a piece like this that has no real comps. For a lot of bidders, there will be a big difference in what they are mentally prepared to spend if the lot is at 0 vs. $200K when the actual auction begins. If this early bidding causes any internal recalibration of values, then it will have made a difference.

 

 

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batman_fan

batman_fan

Posted
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An early congrats to the eventual winner of Wolverine's first appearance-- it's simply awesome. Condolences, though, on the thrill bidders driving the price up on you.

The thrill bidders won`t make any difference in the end. The players who really want this piece are going to bid their max and then we`ll see where the dust settles. The final price will not be impacted by the thrill bids at all.

 

Any bidding activity will influence our max estimates (including for the real players) heading into the live auction session, especially for a piece like this that has no real comps. For a lot of bidders, there will be a big difference in what they are mentally prepared to spend if the lot is at 0 vs. $200K when the actual auction begins. If this early bidding causes any internal recalibration of values, then it will have made a difference.

 

 

I am VERY far from playing at these levels, but I know I have set mental levels I am willing to pay for an item which has been shifted up as the bidding progresses. I suspect the same thing could occur here.

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tth2

tth2

Posted
Posted
An early congrats to the eventual winner of Wolverine's first appearance-- it's simply awesome. Condolences, though, on the thrill bidders driving the price up on you.

The thrill bidders won`t make any difference in the end. The players who really want this piece are going to bid their max and then we`ll see where the dust settles. The final price will not be impacted by the thrill bids at all.

 

Any bidding activity will influence our max estimates (including for the real players) heading into the live auction session, especially for a piece like this that has no real comps. For a lot of bidders, there will be a big difference in what they are mentally prepared to spend if the lot is at 0 vs. $200K when the actual auction begins. If this early bidding causes any internal recalibration of values, then it will have made a difference.

 

True, but only if people really only expected this page to bring in somewhere in the $200K level. If the estimates of $400K or higher are true, then everything up until now has just been noise and is unlikely to have caused anyone to recalibrate anything. If it were sitting at $500K today, that would be another story.

 

As an indication of how all the bids up until now have been nothing but white noise, I will say that I was the brief high bidder at an all-inclusive bid of $210,986 (I couldn`t get the number to come out to $210,987). So no better example of a genuine thrill bid, as it was a price that I expected to have zero possibility of winning but would have been "thrilled" to win at such an absolute bargain price.

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otherworldsj33

otherworldsj33

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I don't follow the flow of the auction bidding as closely as I once did, but generally, and I am making a broad statement here, I know there are plenty of exceptions, but I found that usually, on the better pieces, the final bid was around double what the bid was around 3/4 weeks in. I would expect this piece to finalize at the 400K range. Maybe more. Probably more? But I don't see it going for less then 340-ish. In fact I would be very surprised if it did. I don't gamble, never really liked it, so this type of bid speculating is my cheap thrill. Speaking of thrills, as far as thrill bids, I can't speak to this level of pricing, it is out of my league, but when I first began using Heritage, the first handful of items I bided on, they were mostly middle and higher end pieces, I would usually bid them up early on, and I noticed that when I had won an auction, I often ended up paying more then I believed I thought a piece should have finalized at. So I adjusted my strategy and held out bidding until the very end. I am of the firm belief that I paid less for pieces doing it that way. How do I know? Well I can't say for sure, but it sure did seem that way. So while I can't speak to this level of pricing, from my experience, I believe items in the range of, let's say from around 5K to 10K, up to about 70K-ish, are many times affected by thrill bidders.

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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I got the Heritage catalog this week and, after looking through it, I think the selection is better than I initially gave it credit for. I mean, sure, if you're just looking at vintage Marvel art, particularly covers, it's definitely down from recent offerings. Though, I thought there was a lot of interesting strip art, underground art and assorted odds and ends to make it interesting. I wouldn't say that there's anything here that I'd go to the mat for, but, after initially thinking I wouldn't go for anything, I'm thinking of lobbing in a few bids which might be competitive. hm

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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In addition to comic art, I also collect illustration art. In contrast to the comic art, the lots I've been tracking in illo art haven't moved much off the opening amounts. Is thrill bidding mostly a comic art thing?

 

They don't start the illo lots at $1 like the comic auctions. Makes it harder to thrill bid when your first bid could be the winning bid. hm

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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Why the difference?

 

I suspect it's because the vast majority of comic/OA lots have no reserve, so they can start them at $1. Illo lots are generally less liquid and have reserves set at the minimum starting bid (i.e., many illo lots are listed as "no reserve" auctions, but there is a de facto reserve set at the initial bid level).

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