Marvel Preview 4 and 7 -- EBAY SHILLING ON STEROIDS

[Jaydogrules]

Hello Boardies,

 

Over in the "Wow Marvel Preview 7 Goes Through the Roof" thread (or something to that effect), there has been a lot of intelligent debate as to whether or not these books are "for real" or just two more "flash in the pan" movie books with no legacy of comic book collector interest with temporary wildly inflated prices.

 

My concern with this thread is not either of those issues. However, based on that discussion I decided to take a closer look under the hood of the ebay activity of these books. I work with statistics and follow market fluctuations within the real estate industry for my "real job", as well as do fraud analysis on a nearly day-to-day basis.

 

And from what I can see, both of these books are being artificially "pumped" by a litany of unscrupulous people who are attempting to manipulate market data and create a perception that these books are "hotter" than they really, and going through the roof" in two ways:

 

1) By using a blatant shill bidder (or multiple shill bidders) within their auctions to create a de facto "reserve" that is well over FMV (Fair Market Value) that is almost always the under bidder in the auction, hoping for a snipe bid from a legitimate bidder at the end, and

 

2) By listing phony "buy it nows" as "closed sales" at obviously inflated prices, that are not supported in any way, shape, or form by legitimate "buy it nows" and/or auctions (meaning the prices are often a multiple of 200-500% of what established FMV of other recent, non fraudulent sales have been). A lot of these fake "Buy it Now" listings have been caught and removed by ebay already.

 

 

The following is my reported findings:

 

I will begin with Marvel Preview 4.

 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=251589775679&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

 

In this example you will notice shill bidder b**e with 0 feedback, got the bid to $400. Shill bidder a**l with 3 feedback was then outbid by the seller's next shill account, o**s, who has only ever bid on this particular seller's items. You will notice that the last real bid was for $244.99, before the final (apparently) real bidder at the end was shilled all the way up to more than $650, thus suggesting that the "real" FMV of this book was in fact around $250, which is about what all of the other legitimate sales for this book have been going for raw, with a graded 9.0 closing at $326 just a few days ago:

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/MARVEL-PREVIEW-4-CGC-9-0-OFF-WHITE-1ST-STAR-LORD-GUARDIANS-OF-THE-GALAXY-/331263549623?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item4d20d8a0b7

 

 

**Note For the Uninitiated: in order to see each bidder's bidding history with any given seller, you need only click the bidder's partially anonymous user name.**

 

There is one sale in a 9.8 by mycomicshop that was for over $2,900, that looks to be an outlier, and unfounded price point with no prior high grade copies going for anything near that. There is also a "closed sale" as a "buy it now"...

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/MARVEL-PREVIEW-4-CGC-9-8-NM-MINT-1ST-STARLORD-GUARDIANS-GALAXY-NoRESERVE-6-7-271-/251601289110?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a949aff96

 

...that was reported as being shilled in an auction just two days earlier, which evidently resulted in the seller canceling all the bids just one day before....

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/MARVEL-PREVIEW-4-CGC-9-8-NM-MINT-1ST-STARLORD-GUARDIANS-GALAXY-NoRESERVE-6-7-271-/261542446693?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3ce5250665

 

 

On to Marvel Preview 7.

 

I will begin with the auction that was also canceled by the seller (different seller user name, but different seller?) after reports of rampant shilling were made to ebay. It should be noted that the same shill ebay account was being used to artificially inflate the bids for this and the aforementioned canceled auction for Marvel Preview 4.

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/MARVEL-PREVIEW-7-FIRST-APPEARANCE-KEY-ISSUE-HIGH-GRADE-CGC-MOVIE-COMIC-/111417497752?pt=US_Comic_Magazines&hash=item19f1001898

 

...and both shilled auctions were mysteriously canceled at the same time.

 

The next obviously shilled auction occurred on this "high grade" raw copy:

 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=360999724568&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

 

The underbidding shill in this auction is e**4, with 4 feedback, who had 100% bidding activity with this this seller until I came onto these boards in the other Marvel Preview 7 thread and pointed that out. Subsequent to that, the shill account placed a couple of throw away bids in a couple other auctions, which has led me to believe that these boards are being read by that particular seller.

 

It should also be noted that the prior high selling priced for a "high grade" copy was only $499...

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/MARVEL-PREVIEW-7-1ST-ROCKET-RACCOON-GOTG-SUPER-HOT-1976-VF-8-0-/251591504088?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a9405b0d8

 

 

....and that was as a "buy it now" just a few days before this auction closed. I would put the real FMV of that book at around that price, perhaps less, since auctions tend to yield lower sales prices than a typical "buy it now".

 

As with the Marvel Preview 4, there is one bizzarely high, apparently outlier sale that has no basis in past sales results in also high grade:

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=155285&item=121387386036&rt=nc&print=all&si=T6Np1tB5%2FZYDnmTPautXEt6zbyY%3D

 

Another boardie has claimed in the other Marvel Preview 7 thread that he knows the buyer of this book personally. I however find it odd, especially for such a high dollar book, that the buyer did not leave any feedback for the seller, nor did the seller for the buyer after this transaction. That leads me to believe that the sale is either bogus, or either the buyer or seller did not perform.

 

 

While shilling and fake "buy it nows" on ebay are certainly nothing new, I found it fascinating to see in action with these two books. You can literally see the fraud and attempts at market manipulation happening right before your very eyes. The fact that these books have so recently caught the attention of the market makes them particularly vulnerable to fraudsters as the collecting market at large tries to get a handle for what FMV really is for the books. But at the same time, it makes the shenanigans easier to spot as well, if you have no life and too much free time at the office like me, to compile the data and disseminate to my fellow boardies.

 

And if it spares even one boardie the pain and aggravation of being shilled into an artificially high bid in a fraudulent auction on either of these books, or perhaps another, then it will all have been worth it.

 

Be careful out there. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Vikingreed]

[Mishmashman]

So basically if it's a GPA high, it's a shill. Got it. If the price of a BIN listing comports with what you personally think the books are worth, it's not a shill. Got it. Have you been bidding on these books and find it frustrating that prices are running away from you?

 

Perhaps prices are reflecting what a tough book this is in high grade. Silver Age rarity for a Bronze Age book? Maybe folks wanting a copy are finally realizing that? Prices make sense to me.

 

All in all, a pretty irresponsible post to drag the names of some legitimate sellers into the mud. Maybe some auctions (can't speak to the raw auctions you listed) are shilled (as are the listings of some worthless moderns), but not all are; certainly you can't say one way or the other that the ended auction listings or sold BIN listings are shilled at all, but here you are saying with absolute certainty that they are.

 

Posts like these (built on flimsy allegations) form the legal basis for a nice libel suit. Nice going buddy.

[AlexanderM]

If your 'analysis' hold water (other than being (in all honesty pretty wild) speculations based on a few books) then surely comic dealers all over the country should have glorious days!! Because if the Ebay prices are pumped up... then any buyer should be able to get much cheaper books at the LCS, comiccons etc.

 

Or are all the country's LCSs all in on this grand conspiracy?

[Jaydogrules]

So basically if it's a GPA high, it's a shill. Got it. Have you been bidding on these books and find it frustrating that prices are running away from you?

 

Perhaps prices are reflecting what a tough book this is in high grade. Silver Age rarity for a Bronze Age book? Maybe folks wanting a copy are finally realizing that? Prices make sense to me.

 

All in all a pretty irresponsible post to drag the names of some legitimate sellers into the mud. Maybe some auctions (can't speak to the raw auctions you listed) are shilled, but not all are.

 

Posts like these (built on flimsy allegations) form the legal basis for a nice libel suit. Nice going buddy.

 

As I have previously stated in the other thread, I have no skin in the game with either of these books. Is there anything in my sig line that suggests to you that I collect "trendy" three figure bronze age books like these? Your oddly defensive response referring to "GPA highs" that only happen as a result of shilled auctions and "buy it nows" on ebay suggests to me that you have missed the point of my post. We are not in a court of law, and I am not attempting to prove a case. I have simply compiled all the evidence of what I find to be clear examples of shilling into one place. You are free to disagree with my conclusions but that does not change the evidence.

 

One last thing, somewhat off topic.... Neither of these books appear to be "tough" in "high grade". They just aren't on the census yet, and most sellers are putting them out there raw before the hype inevitably dies down. Decades of irrelevance and collector apathy towards these books is why their numbers appear low on the census, not "rarity". If people saved a bunch of amazing fantasy 15's from the early '60's, rest assured, there are boxes and boxes of these things out there too, as all of the raw copies available for sale suggest.

 

I don't mind a little dealer carnival barking proclaiming their "rarity". It is the attempts at market manipulation that these books are vulnerable to right now because there are currently so few GPA results that riles me and hurts the hobby as a whole.

-J.

[AlexanderM]

Also remember we all know that some people might be unhappy (and motivated to talk down the books) that they don't "have a skin in the game" because they did not expect what a huge success the movie looks to be. I'm not saying that this is your motive Jay, but we can easily imagine that someone (else) could easily be annoyed to not have "gotten on the boat".

[Mishmashman]

 

One last thing, somewhat off topic.... Neither of these books appear to be "tough" in "high grade". They just aren't on the census yet, and most sellers are putting them out there raw before the hype inevitably dies down. Decades of irrelevance and collector apathy towards these books is why their numbers appear low on the census, not "rarity".

-J.

 

There you go again talking about something you know nothing about. Nevermind that boardies who've been collecting magazines for decades have said time and again that MP7--and mags in general--is especially tough to find in high grade. No, let's ignore that.

[Jaydogrules]

Guys,

 

You can obviously post whatever you like but your perception of "sour grapes" and whether or not either of those books is "rare" has nothing to do with the evident tom-shillery that's going on with them on ebay. Mishmashman, even you, the most ardent advocate of the books, on two occasions have conceded that at least "some" of the auctions look shilled.

And since I'm sure we can all agree that shilling is unethical, unfair to buyers, and bad for the hobby in general, I'm unable to see the controversy here. What's wrong with people reviewing the evidence and deciding for themselves ?

 

-J.

[AlexanderM]

I'm sure some auctions on MP4 and 7 are shilled, because auctions on all comics that people want have some auctions that are shilled. There should really be no reason to single out these two books from any other popular books - unless there is another motive behind doing so.

[Jaydogrules]

So because other books are shilled no one should talk about any books that are shilled. Got it.

 

-J.

[accessndx]

I don't own either book, and frankly I'm not interested in owning either book.

That said, shill or no shill.....the "buyer" at the top of the heap doesn't have to bid more than they are comfortable bidding. Nor is anyone compelled to buy at gunpoint.

 

I myself apparenty paid 3x the GPA market value for a comic that was just auctioned on HA. I wanted it, there are very few out there in that particular grade and I thought I might not have another opportunity to acquire it again. So I bit the bullet. There was a point in my bidding that I said to myself "Do I really want this book for this price?". My internal reply was "yes" and I did what I could to outbid the other folks that were interested. I could have easily said "screw that...I'm not paying that exorbitant amount". My desire to own trumped the desire to be thrifty.

 

I think there's always been shilling, I think there will always be shilling. None of that will ever force me to purchase something I don't want for a price that I think is unreasonable. That also doesn't negate your observation that folks are actively attempting to manipulate the market through whatever means are available to them: shill accounts, board hyping, carnival barking...etc.

 

The market as a whole determines FMV, which unfortunately includes all the dubious aforementioned practices.

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

I don't own either book, and frankly I'm not interested in owning either book.

That said, shill or no shill.....the "buyer" at the top of the heap doesn't have to bid more than they are comfortable bidding. Nor is anyone compelled to buy at gunpoint.

 

I myself apparenty paid 3x the GPA market value for a comic that was just auctioned on HA. I wanted it, there are very few out there in that particular grade and I thought I might not have another opportunity to acquire it again. So I bit the bullet. There was a point in my bidding that I said to myself "Do I really want this book for this price?". My internal reply was "yes" and I did what I could to outbid the other folks that were interested. I could have easily said "screw that...I'm not paying that exorbitant amount". My desire to own trumped the desire to be thrifty.

 

I think there's always been shilling, I think there will always be shilling. None of that will ever force me to purchase something I don't want for a price that I think is unreasonable. That also doesn't negate your observation that folks are actively attempting to manipulate the market through whatever means are available to them: shill accounts, board hyping, carnival barking...etc.

 

The market as a whole determines FMV, which unfortunately includes all the dubious aforementioned practices.

 

 

Well said. It is up to the individual to decide ultimately how much to bid. I'm sure we have all been there in an eBay or comic link auction where we put in one last excessively high bid just to cinch the auction. But how fair is that to a buyer when the under bidder ends up being a shill that artificially increased the final bid to far more than it would have been if the auction was not fraudulent?

 

Apart from the market manipulation, that is an entirely different scourge that does real and palpable harm to buyers, all in the name of greed. And that's not right.

 

-J.

[accessndx]

Yeah, I agree shillers should be put in front of a firing squad after being tortured in unspeakable ways. Still, they are something that any buyer has to be aware of and willing to deal with. I always think about what my "drop dead" price is and draw my line in the sand. I hope I get said item cheaper than that, but once the price hits my personal max it's over.

[Jaydogrules]

Agreed. And that was the thrust of my original analysis. To point out that these two books have an inordinate amount of shilling going on right now, and therefore buyer beware. But as other posters have pointed out, these books are only a symptom of a greater disease.

 

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

Your act is making me sick. You're veiling your post as some mighty act of altruism and saying readers should believe your quackery on the bases of 1) your expertise and experience in reviewing real estate market data and 2) your cherry-picked examples of shilling as representative of the entire market being manipulated. What I suspect you're actually doing is reverse market manipulation, i.e., trying to show that the entire market is being manipulated by singling out a few sales to make sure the market doesn't get out of reach for you to either get a nice copy or build up a hoard.

 

You're even cherry-picking the BIN listings that are going for GPA highs as suspected shills because--wait for it... Neither buyer or seller left feedback? That's your evidence? Seriously? You might be good at market analysis or whatever you do, but man you suck at reaching rational conclusions and marshaling sound evidence.

 

Let's not mention that a MP7 9.0 went for $1100 earlier this week that completely rips into your garbage analysis. Let's not mention that HA.com just had a MP7 9.2 oww resell through it's make an offer program for $1650. Let's not mention that an MP4 9.8 sold on eBay via mycomicshop for $2940 (the prior high was $2500 FYI through Terry's Comics out in Orange County, who's a big dealer in CA). Nah, let's forget about those and focus on your cherry-picked examples that prove your point.

 

I wouldn't have a problem with anything you wrote if you had said, "Look guys, some sellers are shilling these books, watch out for shilling." But you title the heading of your post, which is in all caps, no less, "MP 4 AND 7 EBAY SHILLING ON STEROIDS," obviously to make sure people read it and then the content of your post consists of a few cherry-picked ended eBay listings that just prove what you only see as a completely untrustworthy marketplace instead of a few examples of shilling in a sea of legitimate sales.

 

As other posters have written, shilling happens every day to all sorts of books in all eras. The fact that you're singling out these two books in particular and then seeing how you've composed your argument to prove your point would lead most rational people to believe you have terrible reasoning skills, at best, or an agenda, at worst.

 

 

Either you are continuing to completely miss the point of my post or you are ignoring it because you have an agenda of your own. Either way, it doesn't matter, your are entitled to your own interpretation of the evidence.

 

-J.

[jjfversion1]

Agreed. And that was the thrust of my original analysis. To point out that these two books have an inordinate amount of shilling going on right now, and therefore buyer beware. But as other posters have pointed out, these books are only a symptom of a greater disease.

 

-J.

 

My goodness, you are dense. What are you basing the "inordinate amount of shilling" conclusion on? Again, a few cherry-picked examples in an ocean of legitimate sales. HA.com just had a MP7 9.2 oww resell for $1650. Why didn't you mention that?

 

My problem with your post is that it's not objective. You're singling out a few bad apples and saying the whole batch is rotten.

 

pretty sure that CGC 9.0 copy of MP7 that just sold on ebay for a record high of $1900 was the same copy I sold you two weeks ago here on the boards for less than half the amount. Not pointing fingers, just find it a bit fishy...

[Illustrious]

[Comicopolis]

[Mike's Rack]

There does appear to be shilling going on. I own high grade copies of both books that I plan to sell soon. Does that give me more credibility? It does not change the facts. Some sales look legit. But some look shilled. The point is not that all sales are shilled, the point is that the shilling is making it hard to gauge the true FVM of these books. What's with the defensive responses and accusations?

[BrianR]

There does appear to be shilling going on. I own high grade copies of both books that I plan to sell soon. Does that give me more credibility? It does not change the facts. Some sales look legit. But some look shilled. The point is not that all sales are shilled, the point is that the shilling is making it hard to gauge the true FVM of these books. What's with the defensive responses and accusations?

 

Hit me up with for #7 when you do sell.