Will non-key issues become nearly worthless??

[1Cool]

I finally finished reading the Market Reports in the recent Overstreet Price Guide and I really liked this year's crop of articles. The one statement which seemed to be repeated several times is that dealers and collectors foresee a time when random books will become less and less valuable. Almost every person at the Cons are all looking for a Hulk 181 or NM 98 and no one is actively seeking random issues to complete sets. Does this trend trouble you?

 

I see this trend becoming more noticeable in the sales threads on the boards where everyone is hunting for the hot "key" books and the generic books like a X-Men 19 or 33 gets completely overlooked until its at a rock bottom price. I can only see this trend getting worse with the new collectors not caring about completing sets but more interested in getting the showpiece books. Thoughts?

[The-Collector]

I finally finished reading the Market Reports in the recent Overstreet Price Guide and I really liked this year's crop of articles. The one statement which seemed to be repeated several times is that dealers and collectors foresee a time when random books will become less and less valuable. Almost every person at the Cons are all looking for a Hulk 181 or NM 98 and no one is actively seeking random issues to complete sets. Does this trend trouble you?

 

I see this trend becoming more noticeable in the sales threads on the boards where everyone is hunting for the hot "key" books and the generic books like a X-Men 19 or 33 gets completely overlooked until its at a rock bottom price. I can only see this trend getting worse with the new collectors not caring about completing sets but more interested in getting the showpiece books. Thoughts?

 

Some runs will remain desirable but I see a majority of books trending downwards in the long run.

 

Classic runs like Adams' Bats/GL in the Bronze age, Early ASM, XM, FF and The Avengers in the SA and MMC, CA, Tec/Bats, Action/Superman in the GA will remain popular.

 

That's not to say non key issues of titles like All Flash and Strange Adventures will become worthless I just don't think they are good long term propositions and will probably become less and less sought after.

 

 

[Bookery]

I finally finished reading the Market Reports in the recent Overstreet Price Guide and I really liked this year's crop of articles. The one statement which seemed to be repeated several times is that dealers and collectors foresee a time when random books will become less and less valuable. Almost every person at the Cons are all looking for a Hulk 181 or NM 98 and no one is actively seeking random issues to complete sets. Does this trend trouble you?

 

I see this trend becoming more noticeable in the sales threads on the boards where everyone is hunting for the hot "key" books and the generic books like a X-Men 19 or 33 gets completely overlooked until its at a rock bottom price. I can only see this trend getting worse with the new collectors not caring about completing sets but more interested in getting the showpiece books. Thoughts?

 

This is not a problem. At the current rate, in another 5 years every comic ever published will be considered a "key".

 

[Artboy99]

Many books are already worthless. Can't be sold for 0.10, some of them you can't give away, some you have to pay people to take them!

[RCheli]

I recently bought a run of Bronze Age Flashes, and in one of the issues -- where they still had Green Lantern back-ups -- I read the first appearance of Proty, that absolutely stupid intergalactic starfish that used to hang out on GL's shoulder.

 

A dumber character was never created in the history of comics.

 

And as I was reading the story, I thought to myself... "Is this going to be a key someday? Is some new writer going to put Proty in a current issue and make him the new scourge of the DC Universe?"

 

That's how keys have changed comic collecting.

[Dale Roberts]

I don't really agree with much of this. I think the books are still highly desirable, and I still have many, many people completing runs and collections. There are always going to be people working on the runs they grew up reading.

 

If there are people who grow up collecting only keys, because they were told they were good investments, or because they saw a movie about them may or may not collect the issues of the books.

 

One consequence of all this stuff is that someone had to read the books to find the first appearance of Nebula and Livewire, etc.

 

And there is a whole untapped world of potential out there. Its called DC.

[Dr. Balls]

Many books are already worthless. Can't be sold for 0.10, some of them you can't give away, some you have to pay people to take them!

 

+1

 

When I came back to collecting in 2008, I was just collecting key/minor key books and small runs (like Astonishing Tales Deathlok, Ms. Marvel etc). The other stuff just wasn't worth storing. Now, with TPBs and digital, there really is no reason to collect non-key issues. I still read books every week, I just don't buy tangible copies.

[SquareChaos]

I think it could be a huge problem, I just don't see how it can be good for the hobby. It seems to me that more money focused on keys will simply drive prices up and push more and more people out of the hobby due to increasing costs. I make a decent living, and there are many books that I just don't even consider chasing because, frankly, it would require me to play the merchant / flipper game to build capital and my grading skills are simply not as strong as some of you other guys and, to boot, I just don't have the time to pick up a part time job. This means more and more books are being pushed out of my price range and it is, frankly, frustrating.

 

The movies are great for visibility, but if they don't bring in new readers, and all they do is drive keys out of the reach of most collectors, then overall I don't know how it could be anything but detrimental.

 

I don't want to sound too pessimistic, but I am a little worried by what I see. I don't want to draw my conclusions just from what I see here on the board as I know most people here can be considered the hardcore of the hardcore collectors, but I will be following this thread to see what other more experienced collectors think.

[Pete Marino]

Many books are already worthless. Can't be sold for 0.10, some of them you can't give away, some you have to pay people to take them!

 

+1

 

When I came back to collecting in 2008, I was just collecting key/minor key books and small runs (like Astonishing Tales Deathlok, Ms. Marvel etc). The other stuff just wasn't worth storing. Now, with TPBs and digital, there really is no reason to collect non-key issues.

 

Non-keys were worth getting so you can read the story. But with digital and TPB I can pretty much read any story I can think of within minutes.

 

I don't think many people want anything but the trophies now.

[bronze_rules]

Many books are already worthless. Can't be sold for 0.10, some of them you can't give away, some you have to pay people to take them!

 

+1

 

When I came back to collecting in 2008, I was just collecting key/minor key books and small runs (like Astonishing Tales Deathlok, Ms. Marvel etc). The other stuff just wasn't worth storing. Now, with TPBs and digital, there really is no reason to collect non-key issues. I still read books every week, I just don't buy tangible copies.

 

+2

 

I had the exact same thought.

[Hamlet]

Sure, its just that there is generally enough supply of the non-key books (especially in lower grades) to keep prices from rising much. That isn't a bad thing unless you are trying to finance your retirement with comic books. Some of us enjoy being able to put together a run of books without spending an arm and a leg.

 

The nice thing about collecting non-keys at a low price, is that when the bubble pops on keys, you won't be out much.

 

I don't really agree with much of this. I think the books are still highly desirable, and I still have many, many people completing runs and collections. There are always going to be people working on the runs they grew up reading.

[Dr. Balls]

The movies are great for visibility, but if they don't bring in new readers, and all they do is drive keys out of the reach of most collectors, then overall I don't know how it could be anything but detrimental.

 

You don't have to buy expensive books to be a comic book fan. And I believe the movies are bringing new readers, but the younger demographic are also going to gravitate to reading books digitally.

 

I remember back when I was 11 years old, I wasn't concerned with the fact I couldn't pay for a Daredevil #1 with my allowance. I was more concerned about reading the new issue. I'm sure that part of the hobby hasn't changed.

[SquareChaos]

The movies are great for visibility, but if they don't bring in new readers, and all they do is drive keys out of the reach of most collectors, then overall I don't know how it could be anything but detrimental.

 

You don't have to buy expensive books to be a comic book fan. And I believe the movies are bringing new readers, but the younger demographic are also going to gravitate to reading books digitally.

 

I remember back when I was 11 years old, I wasn't concerned with the fact I couldn't pay for a Daredevil #1 with my allowance. I was more concerned about reading the new issue. I'm sure that part of the hobby hasn't changed.

 

I've never seen a conclusive argument that shows the movies are bringing in new readers, but it is a hard thing to track unless someone is specifically studying it.

 

And I do agree, you do not have to buy expensive books to be a fan, but I was speaking more about being a collector. You do not have to buy expensive books to be a collector, but most people eventually seek out keys if they do it for very long.

[Dr. Balls]

The movies are great for visibility, but if they don't bring in new readers, and all they do is drive keys out of the reach of most collectors, then overall I don't know how it could be anything but detrimental.

 

You don't have to buy expensive books to be a comic book fan. And I believe the movies are bringing new readers, but the younger demographic are also going to gravitate to reading books digitally.

 

I remember back when I was 11 years old, I wasn't concerned with the fact I couldn't pay for a Daredevil #1 with my allowance. I was more concerned about reading the new issue. I'm sure that part of the hobby hasn't changed.

 

I've never seen a conclusive argument that shows the movies are bringing in new readers, but it is a hard thing to track unless someone is specifically studying it.

 

And I do agree, you do not have to buy expensive books to be a fan, but I was speaking more about being a collector. You do not have to buy expensive books to be a collector, but most people eventually seek out keys if they do it for very long.

 

Comichron has lots of data on that.

[Dale Roberts]

The movies are great for visibility, but if they don't bring in new readers, and all they do is drive keys out of the reach of most collectors, then overall I don't know how it could be anything but detrimental.

 

You don't have to buy expensive books to be a comic book fan. And I believe the movies are bringing new readers, but the younger demographic are also going to gravitate to reading books digitally.

 

I remember back when I was 11 years old, I wasn't concerned with the fact I couldn't pay for a Daredevil #1 with my allowance. I was more concerned about reading the new issue. I'm sure that part of the hobby hasn't changed.

 

I've never seen a conclusive argument that shows the movies are bringing in new readers, but it is a hard thing to track unless someone is specifically studying it.

 

And I do agree, you do not have to buy expensive books to be a fan, but I was speaking more about being a collector. You do not have to buy expensive books to be a collector, but most people eventually seek out keys if they do it for very long.

 

I can tell you conclusively, there are new collectors because of the movies. I don't know how many, but I am seeing people who are new to collecting. I don't know if they are reading or not. They may just be buying books they see other people buying.

[Phicks]

I will step on the scales in the opposite direction, and say that I am still a "completionist", and I bet they are still many like me on these boards, and in the hobby. I don't think non-keys from the bronze age and earlier will lose value, but we are certainly seeing ever accelerating values for keys. As others have pointed out, the movies have the ability to make an ordinary comic into a key overnight, so being a completionist may work out to be financially a good deal anyway.

 

Conversely, all that post bronze age 90s drek and modern stuff has little if any value. I do not suggest anyone try to complete any runs post 1980 for investment purposes.

 

But if you enjoy reading the books, whatever the era, please buy them and read them. Now and forever.

[SquareChaos]

I know about comichron, but what I mean is, I don't see any tracking being done by anyone to see where these people came from. Comic sales went up and down when there were no movies to speak of, so it could be correlation, I don't know.

 

I have to think Marvel has done studies, even if they are not releasing them.

 

And, yeah, there are always new readers and collectors to the hobby, but we don't know why they're here. Again, there were new readers and collectors before the movies.

 

All I have is my own confirmation bias-based story - I've never met anyone that was a collector that said they got into it due to the Avengers or Iron Man movies, but I'm sure they're out there. One may even be reading this now and preparing to respond!

[Firespitter]

I see it as a self-leveling problem.

 

If general comics become worth less, then they will print less often or fewer in a run.

 

I think Dark Horse sort of has quantities of what the market will bear weeded-out pretty well, atleast for what is purchased in my area. Many of their titles are low (30k) print runs, and they rarely do re-prints.

So when you go into a store and you ask "Where are the Dark Horse back issues?" they usually have 1 (at most 2) long box that they point you to. The more popular titles never sit around for more than a half year. Ask them specifically "Where are they Hellboy back issues? or Abe Sapien, or Star Wars back issues?" They will tell you that there are none. People WILL pay cover price even though it may sit around a few months.

In fact one store that I know puts their back issues in bags and boards 1 month after release and they tack on an additional $0.75 for a (bagging fee) and they still sell out of most Dark Horse titles every time I go in there.

The only time they have a back issue of Hellboy is if they bought it in a set off of a customer and tossed in the back issue box. And once again, if I go back in a couple of months to that place, that issue is gone.

 

Another shop I go to near work, I asked for the Dark Horse box, but they go strictly alphabetical. So going aphabetically, I discovered that they had exactly 1 Hellboy cover (Being Human) and 4 issues of Baltimore (plague ships). I bought the plague ships to finish a second set for myself. And I also had to pay a premium for them $4.25/issue.

 

My point is, I think the niche is finding what the demand is and trying to match it and not try to exceed it. The wild swings in DC and Marvel labels (where print runs can exceed 100's of thousands) is where you may have issues.

 

Right now, I don't see Marvel or DC crying about no one buying their stuff. And if they announced right now that they were halving their print runs in an upcomming month, you would see comic nerds scramble for them like they were $100 bills dropping from the roof of a building.

-Terry

 

 

[bronze_rules]

I know about comichron, but what I mean is, I don't see any tracking being done by anyone to see where these people came from. Comic sales went up and down when there were no movies to speak of, so it could be correlation, I don't know.

 

I have to think Marvel has done studies, even if they are not releasing them.

 

And, yeah, there are always new readers and collectors to the hobby, but we don't know why they're here. Again, there were new readers and collectors before the movies.

 

All I have is my own confirmation bias-based story - I've never met anyone that was a collector that said they got into it due to the Avengers or Iron Man movies, but I'm sure they're out there. One may even be reading this now and preparing to respond!

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/comic-book-movies-do-impact-comic-book-sales-part-3-of-3

 

"The mistake you’re making in terms of Iron Man or Wolverine or Dark Knight is you’re focusing in too shallowly – you can’t just look at single issues, you have to look to [graphic novels] as well. I assure you, as I have seen the BookScan numbers, that there IS a marked rise in sales on those properties when a movie is released."

[HighStakesComics]

I don't really agree with much of this. I think the books are still highly desirable, and I still have many, many people completing runs and collections. There are always going to be people working on the runs they grew up reading.

 

If there are people who grow up collecting only keys, because they were told they were good investments, or because they saw a movie about them may or may not collect the issues of the books.

 

One consequence of all this stuff is that someone had to read the books to find the first appearance of Nebula and Livewire, etc.

 

And there is a whole untapped world of potential out there. Its called DC.

 

+1

Great analysis.