When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[VintageComics]

New Mutants #98 is the 1st book that I've seen rise in price after the movie was released. Just sayin'

 

 

It happened with Bat books in 1989, but that's the last time it happened.

 

Excellent point. I forgot about Batmania.

[MetalPSI]

So should I be selling my 9.4-9.8 raw copy I have now, or wait?

[VintageComics]

No idea.

 

9.8 auction is now up to $811 with 3 days to go.

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/New-Mutants-98-CGC-9-8-1st-app-Deadpool-Ryan-Reynolds-X-men-Liefield-CGC-1-/131736726481?hash=item1eac1eebd1:g:kzUAAOSwnLdWs~5g

[MetalPSI]

Hmm

 

I may just have my first book I should really sub to CGC in my collection

[BarryAllen]

It depends on what you paid for it and what the book means to you.

[BarryAllen]

No idea.

 

9.8 auction is now up to $811 with 3 days to go.

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/New-Mutants-98-CGC-9-8-1st-app-Deadpool-Ryan-Reynolds-X-men-Liefield-CGC-1-/131736726481?hash=item1eac1eebd1:g:kzUAAOSwnLdWs~5g

 

It doesn't help that Buy It Now prices start at $1,100... That is almost $300 higher than recent sales, it is sick of you think about it.

 

This is a book that is being price controlled by dealers/hoarders that are actively trying to manipulate it. They are misrepresenting the "rareness" and it is a real shame. With over 200,000 copies in the wild, there are potential >10,000 more 9.8's to be slabbed.

 

It is hard to believe that anyone doesn't see a bubble.

[oakman29]

No idea.

 

9.8 auction is now up to $811 with 3 days to go.

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/New-Mutants-98-CGC-9-8-1st-app-Deadpool-Ryan-Reynolds-X-men-Liefield-CGC-1-/131736726481?hash=item1eac1eebd1:g:kzUAAOSwnLdWs~5g

 

It doesn't help that Buy It Now prices start at $1,100... That is almost $300 higher than recent sales, it is sick of you think about it.

 

This is a book that is being price controlled by dealers/hoarders that are actively trying to manipulate it. They are misrepresenting the "rareness" and it is a real shame. With over 200,000 copies in the wild, there are potential >10,000 more 9.8's to be slabbed.

 

It is hard to believe that anyone doesn't see a bubble.

 

I know I have a raw 9.8.

[VintageComics]

It doesn't help that Buy It Now prices start at $1,100... That is almost $300 higher than recent sales, it is sick of you think about it.

 

It's $300 higher than some recent sales, $200 higher than some recent sales and $100 higher than some recent sales.

 

There are also Make An Offer options. I fail to see how that is an issue.

 

This is a book that is being price controlled by dealers/hoarders that are actively trying to manipulate it. They are misrepresenting the "rareness" and it is a real shame. With over 200,000 copies in the wild, there are potential >10,000 more 9.8's to be slabbed.

 

How do 1000's of different sellers price control one issue?

 

How is the rareness being misrepresented?

 

 

[Broke as a Joke]

New Mutants #98 is the 1st book that I've seen rise in price after the movie was released. Just sayin'

 

 

It happened with Bat books in 1989, but that's the last time it happened.

 

Excellent point. I forgot about Batmania.

 

Captain America 6 shot up after the Winter Soldier movie came out. That was the last movie book to get a big jolt after the movie instead of before it.

[BarryAllen]

It doesn't help that Buy It Now prices start at $1,100... That is almost $300 higher than recent sales, it is sick of you think about it.

 

It's $300 higher than some recent sales, $200 higher than some recent sales and $100 higher than some recent sales.

 

There are also Make An Offer options. I fail to see how that is an issue.

 

This is a book that is being price controlled by dealers/hoarders that are actively trying to manipulate it. They are misrepresenting the "rareness" and it is a real shame. With over 200,000 copies in the wild, there are potential >10,000 more 9.8's to be slabbed.

 

How do 1000's of different sellers price control one issue?

 

How is the rareness being misrepresented?

 

 

Stop with the theatrics (the smilies), it has been shown here multiple times that people hoarded this book like crazy and are releasing a copy at a time to maximize their profits. It only takes a few people to manipulate a system - you have plenty experience to know that happens - especially on more modern easily available books.

 

As far as pricing goes, there hasn't been a "recent" sale over $1,000 since July of last year with the only other one last year in February. Other than those two, only one other recorded sale hit $1,000 and it was in September of 2014. Prices this year range from $678 to $988 with the 12 month average at $812 and 90 day average at $823 and 30 day average at $838. By my math that makes eBay pricing $200-$300 or more on average (I am not even counting the silly copies listed for $2,000 and up) or +16-30% higher than FMV on average.

 

As far as rareness being misrepresented, see below to read excerpts from just a few of the eBay descriptions (none of these statements are true - nothing about this book is rare):

 

"One of the rare double signed cgc editions by BOTH creators/inventors of Deadpool."

 

"Only one on ebay like it."

 

"Rare in this grade for a news stand edition"

 

"Making this book a one of a kind item due the rarity of Rob Liefeld sketching on ANYTHING!"

 

"New mutants 98 first appearance of dead pool very rear sighed by Stan Lee I think there is 250 sighed 9.6 in the Cgc cenus book is beautiful looks like a 9.9 easy sharp brand new slab autographed by Stan Lee"

 

"1ST DEADPOOL VANESSA COPYCAT DOMINO NEWSSTAND UPC VARIANT VERY RARE"

 

"1st appearance Deadpool Rare Hot Book"

 

Edited March 3, 2016 by rfoiii

[BarryAllen]

There are 9,626 copies of NM 98 in the CGC census.

1 in 10.0

11 in 9.9

2,320 in 9.8 (24%)

2,828 in 9.6 (29%)

1,622 in 9.4 (17%)

899 in 9.2 (9%)

635 in 9.0 (7%)

(8,316 or 86.4% in 9.0 and above)

 

If you extrapolate that out to the known 200,000 copies in existence and adjust for a downward bias of 25% for fun that would still leave 116,699 copies in 9.0 or better...

 

Of course I am not accounting for the other two grading companies or resubs, so let's cut that number in half for giggles to hit the bottom and make it 58,349 copies in 9.0 or better.

 

Or even cut it in half again for fun and you get 29,174 copies in 9.0 or better...

 

Since the price has been flat for almost two years (excuse me, up 1-2 percent the last 30 days), I am sure the market can sustain that supply (more than 3-5X the total existing census in just new 9.0+ alone).

 

Big future for this book, huge.

Edited March 3, 2016 by rfoiii

[Master_P]

Has it burst yet? Is it safe to buy NM #98 in 9.8

[RockMyAmadeus]

New Mutants #98 is the 1st book that I've seen rise in price after the movie was released. Just sayin'

 

 

It happened with Bat books in 1989, but that's the last time it happened.

 

Excellent point. I forgot about Batmania.

 

Captain America 6 shot up after the Winter Soldier movie came out. That was the last movie book to get a big jolt after the movie instead of before it.

 

Please define what you mean by "shot up" and "big jolt."

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

It doesn't help that Buy It Now prices start at $1,100... That is almost $300 higher than recent sales, it is sick of you think about it.

 

It's $300 higher than some recent sales, $200 higher than some recent sales and $100 higher than some recent sales.

 

There are also Make An Offer options. I fail to see how that is an issue.

 

This is a book that is being price controlled by dealers/hoarders that are actively trying to manipulate it. They are misrepresenting the "rareness" and it is a real shame. With over 200,000 copies in the wild, there are potential >10,000 more 9.8's to be slabbed.

 

How do 1000's of different sellers price control one issue?

 

How is the rareness being misrepresented?

 

 

It is incredibly unlikely, and betrays an immense lack of understanding of comics, to imagine that there are "potential (sic) greater than 10,000 more 9.8s to be slabbed." That number is just not in tune with reality.

 

It is also unlikely that there are "over 200,000 copies in the wild." It's possible, but with the returns rate printed in New Mutants #99 (about 37%), and average distribution (that is, copies sold via all channels) was 182k copies, with 194k at the nearest issue to filing (which would be #96, part of the X-Tinction Agenda crossover), it's not very likely that there were 200,000 copies extant by the end of the returns process, much less 25+ years later.

 

[Paddy_McShillihan]

Has it burst yet? Is it safe to buy NM #98 in 9.8

 

Yes yes ... Grab it .. Search out a nice OW pages copy though ... Off White pages are where it's at ...

[Broke as a Joke]

New Mutants #98 is the 1st book that I've seen rise in price after the movie was released. Just sayin'

 

 

It happened with Bat books in 1989, but that's the last time it happened.

 

Excellent point. I forgot about Batmania.

 

Captain America 6 shot up after the Winter Soldier movie came out. That was the last movie book to get a big jolt after the movie instead of before it.

 

Please define what you mean by "shot up" and "big jolt."

 

 

From $75 for a CGC 9.8 to over $200 (some sales higher) after the movie hit.

[Wall-Crawler]

I debated it but ultimately sold my CGC 9.8 during the first week of release. I was happy with the result.

 

I honestly don't really care all that much about the character. I saw the movie. Thought it was alright. I don't know why people are going all over it.

 

I figure, at some point, it shouldn't be too hard to pick up a 9.6 if I want one later with at present over 2,000 9.8's on the census and over 2,000 9.6's. That is insane. How many more Voldemort books are there? How many raws still in the wild?

 

I don't know how many but I still think there is a substantial amount that could impact price if everyone were to dump them at once, but that won't happen. It doesn't necessarily have to be a conspiracy theory, just "group thought" and general understanding that flooding any market is bad.

 

 

[rapid08]

If you are paying anything more than a few dozen dollars for this book you are a masssssssive insufficiently_thoughtful_person. Good luck with the musical chairs game

[october]

There are 9,626 copies of NM 98 in the CGC census.

1 in 10.0

11 in 9.9

2,320 in 9.8

2,828 in 9.6

1,622 in 9.4

899 in 9.2

635 in 9.0

(8,316 or 86.4% in 9.0 and above)

 

If you extrapolate that out to the known 200,000 copies in existence and adjust for a downward bias of 25% for fun that would still leave 116,699 copies in 9.0 or better...

 

Of course I am not accounting for the other two grading companies or resubs, so let's cut that number in half for giggles to hit the bottom and make it 58,349 copies in 9.0 or better.

 

Since the price has been flat for almost two years (excuse me, up 1-2 percent the last 30 days), I am sure the market can sustain that supply (more than 5X the total existing census in just new 9.0+ alone).

 

Big future for this book, huge.

 

You can't extrapolate slabbed grades to the raw population at large like that. It totally discounts selection bias. How many people are going to bother subbing NM 98 in under 9.0? This isn't AF 15, where virtually any copy is worth subbing and therefore has a more accurate representation of how ALL copies are distributed grade-wise. NM 98 is a modern that, personally, I wouldn't bother to sub below 9.4. Lower grade, mid-grade and even lower end high grade copies are never going to be represented the way 9.4+ copies are. The census for that issue is completely skewed and top heavy.

[BarryAllen]

There are 9,626 copies of NM 98 in the CGC census.

1 in 10.0

11 in 9.9

2,320 in 9.8

2,828 in 9.6

1,622 in 9.4

899 in 9.2

635 in 9.0

(8,316 or 86.4% in 9.0 and above)

 

If you extrapolate that out to the known 200,000 copies in existence and adjust for a downward bias of 25% for fun that would still leave 116,699 copies in 9.0 or better...

 

Of course I am not accounting for the other two grading companies or resubs, so let's cut that number in half for giggles to hit the bottom and make it 58,349 copies in 9.0 or better.

 

Since the price has been flat for almost two years (excuse me, up 1-2 percent the last 30 days), I am sure the market can sustain that supply (more than 5X the total existing census in just new 9.0+ alone).

 

Big future for this book, huge.

 

You can't extrapolate slabbed grades to the raw population at large like that. It totally discounts selection bias. How many people are going to bother subbing NM 98 in under 9.0? This isn't AF 15, where virtually any copy is worth subbing and therefore has a more accurate representation of how ALL copies are distributed grade-wise. NM 98 is a modern that, personally, I wouldn't bother to sub below 9.4. Lower grade, mid-grade and even lower end high grade copies are never going to be represented the way 9.4+ copies are. The census for that issue is completely skewed and top heavy.

 

I agree with your logic overall, which is why I adjusted down first by 25% and then cut it in half not once, but twice. Cut it in half two more times if you want and you still have a huge excess supply problem looming.

 

Whether the number is 100% accurate there is still an overwhelming number of copies out there and due to the hoarding of this book, a disproportionate number of them will be higher grade (like all 1990's and forward "key" issues).

 

The point is still very valid and relevant.

Edited March 3, 2016 by rfoiii