STAR WARS : The Force Awakens Dec, 18, 2015

[Bosco685]

That's definitely true, but the U.S. population in 1939 was 130million.

Today it's 320million.

 

How many theaters were available to the population then?

 

More options now, more people now.

 

We'll see. A movie like The Force Awakens will be the modern test how close a mega-hit can come to Gone With The Wind.

[cloud cloddie]

Nothing is ever going to break Gone With The Wind for adjusted sales figures.

 

We live in too different a world for anything to compete with those numbers.

 

If they're calculating with ticket sales multiplied by the dollar and the cost of inflation, and basically it's just a comparison of ticket sales (then) vs. ticket sales (now)... Gone With The Wind is at least possible to beat.

 

It's interesting to see the ticket sales numbers. I'd imagine it would be hard to beat those now, though. The original theatrical run of GWTW wind was essentially years, and if you wanted to see it, you had to go to the movies. Regardless of how popular a movie like Force awakens is, there's already a blu release date for 4 months after the premiere. There are so many different ways today to see a movie that has nothing to do with tickets sales.

I'd be amazed if any film could beat it.

 

I've also wondered if there was less cinema competition back then like we have now. So a movie was such a big deal for its time, a major production like this would be a huge family outing. People would want to go so they could experience what everyone else was talking about.

 

We have cinema overload. If we are not happy with a week's releases, all we have to do is wait is one or two weeks and another huge movie comes out.

That's definitely true, but the U.S. population in 1939 was 130million.

Today it's 320million.

 

How many theaters were available to the population then?

 

More options now, more people now.

 

I totally agree with more people and theatres, but my side is about theatrical runs. ET was out for about a year, same with Star Wars.

I can't think of a big movie recently that didn't have disc and streaming options out within 6 months. With substantially less time in theatres, and an abundance of blockbusters waiting to take theatre space, it seems almost impossible to beat ticket number sales from way back. You'd almost have to factor in same year DVD/Blu Ray sales to get an approximate comparison.

[lou_fine]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm?sort=adjustedgross&order=DESC&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm

This list is also interesting, because it looks at the estimated number of (domestic) tickets sold.

That seems more reasonable than trying to adjust for inflation across decades.

 

 

Actually, this chart produces the exact same results as the previous chart since it simply takes the All Time Domestic Adjusted Dollars figures and divides them by the 2015 Average Ticket Price of $8.34 per ticket.

 

Still, definitely much better than simply using the Unadjusted Box Office Dollars numbers.

[LordRahl]

It's a shame that an average remake of A New Hope with updated special effects and a bigger Death Star is going to hold any kind of record. What a complete waste of time. I'm shocked at all the hype.

[rjrjr]

It's a shame that an average remake of A New Hope with updated special effects and a bigger Death Star is going to hold any kind of record. What a complete waste of time. I'm shocked at all the hype.

 

I agree but that's how it works. Big box office doesn't always equate to great films. Look at the current top ten highest grossing movies. Star Wars TFA will join the ranks of Iron Man 3 and one of those Fast and Furious movies.

 

In 1990, Home Alone was the top movie of the year. In 2000, the top movie was How the Grinch Stole Christmas. Both movies are fine for what they are, but to be the top movies for the entire year?

[Bosco685]

While waiting to see if TFA reaches three billion...

 

 

...have a cake pop.

 

[fantastic_four]

What will be interesting is to see if it will be able to overtake Avatar internationally.

 

Since it hasn't even hit China yet that seems like a given.

[fantastic_four]

And yes, when you do that with all movies the power of Gone With The Wind and Star Wars surely shines.

 

There were no home formats to compete with back then--if you didn't see it in the theatre, you waited years for it to show up on television, or in the case of Gone With the Wind you never saw it at all. A better comparison is to add disc, streaming, and television licensing totals in with box office totals, and if you do that, most modern movies would kick the pants off of any of the older films. We watch far more movies now than we did back then, we just split in how we see them.

[Bosco685]

There were no home formats to compete with back then--if you didn't see it in the theatre, you waited years for it to show up on television, or in the case of Gone With the Wind you never saw it at all. A better comparison is to add disc, streaming, and television licensing totals in with box office totals, and if you do that, most modern movies would kick the pants off of any of the older films. We watch far more movies now than we did back then, we just split in how we see them.

 

Although during the early seventies four-walling came into play where a group or individual could rent a reel for small showings. It was 'renting' before there were video rental stores.

 

The only site that seems to do a great job of tracking VHS/DVD/Blu-Ray sales for a short period of time is the-numbers.com, and even then its details are limited.

[valiantman]

This might be the most impressive record that The Force Awakens has set yet.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/f-th.htm?page=Mon&p=.htm

 

The movie opened on a Thursday evening... but it set the highest Monday box office ever... 4 (or 5, if you count Thursday) days later.

Impressive.

 

The movie now also owns the second highest Monday box office ever... 12 days after opening... higher than any other movie's first Monday. The 3rd highest of all-time belongs to Spider-man 2, which owned the record with a July 4th holiday (observed Monday, July 5th). The 4th highest was a Memorial Day for Indiana Jones.

 

TFA for #1 and #2... on Mondays... neither is a holiday.

Most impressive.

[rjrjr]

What will be interesting is to see if it will be able to overtake Avatar internationally.

 

Since it hasn't even hit China yet that seems like a given.

 

Avatar is $2.788 billion. Star Wars would have to make 2.5 times what it has made so far or roughly $1.6 billion. Let's say China hits $500 million, which is over $100 million more than any U.S. movie has ever made there. There is still $1.1 billion more for this movie to make in the rest of the worldwide.

 

As an example, here is the take of recent movies in China:

 

Furious 7 $390 million

Avengers AoU $240 million

Jurassic World $228 million

Iron Man 3 $121 million

 

It doesn't seem like a given to me.

[fantastic_four]

The reason I say it's a given is that there's no reason to think it won't have the same 5 to 6 month staying power in 500+ theatres that Avatar, Titanic, and Phantom Menace all did, yet it's out-pacing all of them. Very few films stay in wide release beyond three months including Jurassic World. Its got the same broad demographic appeal of all three of those films at this point only it has better critical support. If China weren't in the totals to date I'd think it was a neck-in-neck race with Avatar, but them bumping the total up by a few hundred mil seems to clinch it.

[paperheart]

What will be interesting is to see if it will be able to overtake Avatar internationally.

 

Since it hasn't even hit China yet that seems like a given.

 

Avatar is $2.788 billion. Star Wars would have to make 2.5 times what it has made so far or roughly $1.6 billion. Let's say China hits $500 million, which is over $100 million more than any U.S. movie has ever made there. There is still $1.1 billion more for this movie to make in the rest of the worldwide.

 

As an example, here is the take of recent movies in China:

 

Furious 7 $390 million

Avengers AoU $240 million

Jurassic World $228 million

Iron Man 3 $121 million

 

It doesn't seem like a given to me.

 

until Monday, domestic had actually been running neck & neck with int'l (ex China). Monday & Tues saw int'l 25% ahead of domestic. starting at $600MM each, if US gets to $1BB (highly probable), int'l would be at roughly $1.1BB. that would mean China would have to do close to $700MM to top Avatar. that being said, i'm not sure $1BB is the upside # to domestic. there's no sign it's slowing and Jan has no competition.

[fantastic_four]

What will be interesting is to see if it will be able to overtake Avatar internationally.

 

Since it hasn't even hit China yet that seems like a given.

 

Avatar is $2.788 billion. Star Wars would have to make 2.5 times what it has made so far or roughly $1.6 billion. Let's say China hits $500 million, which is over $100 million more than any U.S. movie has ever made there. There is still $1.1 billion more for this movie to make in the rest of the worldwide.

 

As an example, here is the take of recent movies in China:

 

Furious 7 $390 million

Avengers AoU $240 million

Jurassic World $228 million

Iron Man 3 $121 million

 

It doesn't seem like a given to me.

 

until Monday, domestic had actually been running neck & neck with int'l (ex China). Monday & Tues saw int'l 25% ahead of domestic. starting at $600MM each, if US gets to $1BB (highly probable), int'l would be at roughly $1.1BB. that would mean China would have to do close to $700MM to top Avatar. that being said, i'm not sure $1BB is the upside # to domestic. there's no sign it's slowing and Jan has no competition.

 

That's a good point since Avatar did almost 3x overseas as compared to what it made in America. It's possible Star Wars doesn't have the same international appeal of Avatar. The foreign totals so far show that it does, but it's possible the end totals will be significantly lower for reasons only predictable if you're familiar with reasons why Star Wars would have lower global appeal.

 

My guess is that China and Japan would absolutely love BB-8 given how much those two countries go tothemarketdownthestreetforsomeCRAZY over robots. But maybe they loved the mech outfits in Avatar even more.

[Meeklo]

So it is now over $600 million domestically. It is projected to be at $700 million by this weekend (beating Titanic) and more than likely dethrone Avatar after this weekend, which would be its third weekend playing. That's insane!

[drotto]

I personally think that most of these inflation adjusted champions will be safe for basically all time. It is just a simple fact that the business model has changed, and movies have more avenues to make money now. We will never see another 1 or 2 year movie run, with occasional re-releases because that was the only way people could see the film again. With all that said could streaming and disc revenue be weighted against some of those longer runs, and re-releases to give a more accurate picture. Modern movies have a large source of post release income from these avenues, that classic films never had (and classic films on disc etc. are a fraction of the income the Star Wars will generate in the post release market). It seems to me the lifetime weighted numbers would somehow fit into any equation. Repeated viewing at the theater has become less likely in modern times because of the infinite chances to see the film again.

[fantastic_four]

With all that said could streaming and disc revenue be weighted against some of those longer runs, and re-releases to give a more accurate picture.

 

I don't fully understand why, but studios don't consistently release those numbers, so no.

[drotto]

With all that said could streaming and disc revenue be weighted against some of those longer runs, and re-releases to give a more accurate picture.

 

I don't fully understand why, but studios don't consistently release those numbers, so no.

 

Because as far as box office returns go streaming and discs have become the modern equivalent of multi year theater runs, and re-releasing films. I am not saying that it is a 1 to 1 ratio, but part of the historic box office numbers holding for so long are related to changes in technology and the business model. I was wondering if there was a way to equalize for it.

[Comicopolis]

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-box-office-compares-biggest-all-time-films-adjusted-inflation-1201673871/

[fantastic_four]

With all that said could streaming and disc revenue be weighted against some of those longer runs, and re-releases to give a more accurate picture.

 

I don't fully understand why, but studios don't consistently release those numbers, so no.

 

Because as far as box office returns go streaming and discs have become the modern equivalent of multi year theater runs, and re-releasing films. I am not saying that it is a 1 to 1 ratio, but part of the historic box office numbers holding for so long are related to changes in technology and the business model. I was wondering if there was a way to equalize for it.

 

You'd have to guess. Nobody wants that.

 

But your original question stands, and I still don't get why studios don't do it--why not release post-box-office sales figures? You'd think that the studios would want those numbers to be analyzed by the fans, particularly so for popular films.