the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 At the end of the day do you think nice comics are a better 20-30 year investment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Although the right keys probably did beat the stock market over the last 20-30 years. Non-keys definitely not. I just don't see how that can get repeated other than maybe for a few ultra tough trophy books. Not a 4.0 hulk 181, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, the blob said: What other mature markets have had a stretch like Japan's? I know we had a stretch in the late 60s through early 80s where the market was mediocre when adjusted for inflation, but I still think investments grew. You are pointing to one weird anomoly. Although the current regime might be a problem if we are worried about an aging population and having a young workforce to support them. Well, the U.S. market didn't get back to the 1929 high until 1954... There are many previously successful economies which have gone into the toilet and never recovered. I don't view Japan as an anomaly. I view it as a precursor to what is already happening in Western Europe, Russia and parts of Asia which are suffering from aging demographics and low birth rates. The U.S. is a bit better than the other mature economies of the world between higher birth rates plus immigration, but, also faces unsolvable demographic issues, most worryingly in terms of debt levels and pensions. I wouldn't count on 7-8% compounded returns from our stock market over the next 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 (edited) 43 minutes ago, the blob said: At the end of the day do you think nice comics are a better 20-30 year investment? I am, longer-term, wary of any and all investments which may be meaningfully impacted by the demographic changes that we will see over the next 20-30 years. DEMOGRAPHY. IS. DESTINY. Might (or might not) be fine on a shorter-term time horizon, but, if I'm looking out 30 years, I'm going to be sticking to stocks, bonds, property and precious metals, Not that these traditional investments won't also be impacted by demographic changes (and a lot of stocks, bonds and property are just plain overvalued at the moment), but, at least I can be reasonably confident that these asset classes will all still be in demand in 2048. Whether people will still care in 2048 about what people considered decades ago to be a classic cover, or the first appearance book of a character who appeared once in a movie 35 years ago...color me skeptical. I'll be very surprised if they don't care less about such things in 2048 than we do today. Edited September 11, 2018 by delekkerste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantastic_four Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 (edited) 15 minutes ago, delekkerste said: I am, longer-term, wary of any and all investments which may be meaningfully impacted by the demographic changes that we will see over the next 20-30 years. DEMOGRAPHY. IS. DESTINY. Might (or might not) be fine on a shorter-term time horizon (say, 5 to 15 years) Yep, because put more specifically to the comics market towards the end of that 20 to 30 year time frame a majority of people who were alive to buy comics off the stands will be either elderly or dead, and it's difficult to see that not affecting the market in a negative way. History suggests that the right keys, i.e. those in high demand with a low supply, should continue to beat the stock market average over that shorter term of 5 to 15 years you mentioned. I doubt either of us can come up with a likely reason why that wouldn't continue to be true over the shorter term. Edited September 11, 2018 by fantastic_four delekkerste 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Mcknowitall Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, delekkerste said: I am, longer-term, wary of any and all investments which may be meaningfully impacted by the demographic changes that we will see over the next 20-30 years. DEMOGRAPHY. IS. DESTINY. Might (or might not) be fine on a shorter-term time horizon (say, 5 to 15 years), but, if I'm looking out 30 years, I'm going to be sticking to stocks, bonds, property and precious metals, Not that these traditional investments won't also be impacted by demographic changes (and a lot of stocks, bonds and property are just plain overvalued at the moment), but, at least I can be reasonably confident that these asset classes will all still be in demand in 2048. Whether people will still care in 2048 about what people considered decades ago to be a classic cover, or the first appearance book of a character who appeared once in a movie 35 years ago...color me skeptical. I'll be very surprised if they don't care less about such things in 2048 than we do today. Tesla Models....especially spare parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 50 minutes ago, delekkerste said: Well, the U.S. market didn't get back to the 1929 high until 1954... There are many previously successful economies which have gone into the toilet and never recovered. I don't view Japan as an anomaly. I view it as a precursor to what is already happening in Western Europe, Russia and parts of Asia which are suffering from aging demographics and low birth rates. The U.S. is a bit better than the other mature economies of the world between higher birth rates plus immigration, but, also faces unsolvable demographic issues, most worryingly in terms of debt levels and pensions. I wouldn't count on 7-8% compounded returns from our stock market over the next 30 years. You're depressing. delekkerste 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theCapraAegagrus Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, the blob said: You're depressing. Reality is depressing. delekkerste 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 46 minutes ago, fantastic_four said: Yep, because put more specifically to the comics market towards the end of that 20 to 30 year time frame a majority of people who were alive to buy comics off the stands will be either elderly or dead, and it's difficult to see that not affecting the market in a negative way. History suggests that the right keys, i.e. those in high demand with a low supply, should continue to beat the stock market average over that shorter term of 5 to 15 years you mentioned. I doubt either of us can come up with a likely reason why that wouldn't continue to be true over the shorter term. "history suggests" the S&P 500 (or some other broad index) will make 7-10% compounded over the next 20-30 years, but Debbie Downer Delek says no and is making me sad! The same folks who can pay $6K for a nice Hulk 181 have no doubt had their spending money enhanced by the current stock market and other asset inflation and, as a result, feel "rich" enough to splurge on stuff like that. If we're in for a 20-30 year sh**t storm, I dunno how that works out for funny books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, TwoPiece said: Reality is depressing. It is a reality that hasn't happened yet. Heard a lot of the same stuff after the market tanked in 2000, 2008, etc. and it hasn't even tanked yet! All we need is 5 million 25 year old highly skilled braniac Indians to come here and jump start our demographics! (Sorry if that is offensive to anyone, they could be any ethnicity of braniac...) Edited September 11, 2018 by the blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theCapraAegagrus Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, the blob said: It is a reality that hasn't happened yet. Heard a lot of the same stuff after the market tanked in 2000, 2008, etc. and it hasn't even tanked yet! All we need is 5 million 25 year old highly skilled braniac Indians to come here and jump start our demographics! (Sorry if that is offensive to anyone...) Reality has been slowly devolving into Idiocracy for awhile. It is depressing... Camacho for President 2020. Edited September 11, 2018 by TwoPiece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Mcknowitall Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, the blob said: It is a reality that hasn't happened yet. Heard a lot of the same stuff after the market tanked in 2000, 2008, etc. and it hasn't even tanked yet! All we need is 5 million 25 year old highly skilled braniac Indians to come here and jump start our demographics! (Sorry if that is offensive to anyone, they could be any ethnicity of braniac...) Comanches would work, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, TwoPiece said: Reality has been slowly devolving into Idiocracy for awhile. It is depressing... Camacho for President 2020. I won't disagree with you re: Idiocracy. I watched that movie in 2016 with my wife and she was totally.."holy , how long until we are there?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theCapraAegagrus Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, the blob said: I won't disagree with you re: Idiocracy. I watched that movie in 2016 with my wife and she was totally.."holy , how long until we are there?" Sad story: My dad (in his 50's) still hasn't seen it. I've been harassing him for years to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mr.Mcknowitall said: Comanches would work, too. Comanches were good at stuff that may not help drive the economy. Although they probably would have cleaned up our ISIS problem pretty quickly and gotten us out of the middle east 10 years ago with the right weapons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Mcknowitall Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, the blob said: Comanches were good at stuff that may not help drive the economy. Although they probably would have cleaned up our ISIS problem pretty quickly and gotten us out of the middle east 10 years ago with the right weapons. But, if not for the Comancheria, the economy would have been in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, TwoPiece said: Sad story: My dad (in his 50's) still hasn't seen it. I've been harassing him for years to see it. You know, some of us here are dangerously close to being in their 50s and, gasp, some of us are there already! With that said, my 13 year old (probably 11 or 12 when he saw it) nearly wethimself a few times during the movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theCapraAegagrus Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, the blob said: You know, some of us here are dangerously close to being in their 50s and, gasp, some of us are there already! That isn't why the story is sad, just to clarify... Edited September 11, 2018 by TwoPiece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Compare and contrast: https://www.today.com/news/jim-cramer-time-get-out-stock-market-wbna27045699 (August 2010) https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_total_return_annual 2000-2002 was brutal. With that said, I am probably moving a lot of my 401K into low return short term money market type stuff. It's a panic move when the market is doing fine. I just find this feeling of teetering on the brink too stressful. Should have bought Amazon in 1997... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Delek is this guy: https://pro.dentresearch.com/p/BNBZERO_0118/LBNBU767/?h=true He'll own us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
