Accuracy of Gerber and Overstreet Scarcity Designations 8 8

[agro23]

You know, I love the Gerber books, but I have to wonder about the accuracy. It might be a case of where his interests lie (like what he knew personally about scarcity of some books) and what people he spoke with told him. I have TWO sets of these:

 

 

Three 8's and a 9. Yet I saw another on Ebay late last year when I bought my first one and I bought one of a different TWO sets at a recent Heritage auction.

 

So, I figure if I can encounter four copies of something that should have ten or fewer of them around just in the last nine months, the rarity might be skewed. Or I live a charmed life. Jury is still out...

[esquirecomics]

You know, I love the Gerber books, but I have to wonder about the accuracy. It might be a case of where his interests lie (like what he knew personally about scarcity of some books) and what people he spoke with told him. I have TWO sets of these:

 

 

Three 8's and a 9. Yet I saw another on Ebay late last year when I bought my first one and I bought one of a different TWO sets at a recent Heritage auction.

 

So, I figure if I can encounter four copies of something that should have ten or fewer of them around just in the last nine months, the rarity might be skewed. Or I live a charmed life. Jury is still out...

 

Definitely a charmed life.

 

How about selling/trading me one!

[*paull*]

I tend to think that Gerber is pretty accurate with relative scarcity (one book vs. another), but on average there are more copies existing than he claimed. For instance, 50 copies of a book is more like 100 copies and so on.

 

The internet changed everything in collectibles of every stripe.

[Silver Surfer]

Can someone contact the Gerber people and see if there is enough will to revist the ratings of these books, perhaps with the help (again) of Mr. Berk, etc. Maybe revist only books with a current rating of 7 or higher? I think with the exchange of books on the internet over the last 10 years ratings on a number of books would change.

[shrunkenhead]

Can someone contact the Gerber people and see if there is enough will to revist the ratings of these books, perhaps with the help (again) of Mr. Berk, etc. Maybe revist only books with a current rating of 7 or higher? I think with the exchange of books on the internet over the last 10 years ratings on a number of books would change.

 

I think Paull's conclusions here are pretty accurate, and it would seem to me that a readjustment of the scarcity rating would be pretty simple in most cases. Most books would likely get bumped one notch "less scarce" than they already are. That's the math I do in my head already anwyways when considering picking up something new.

[Rip]

I'd double/triple most of his total copies estimates. Some of the more established Superhero/EC horror books, I'd say his ratings are OK, but on Romance books, or more esoteric/lesser known titles, his accuracy drops.

 

He has Teen-Age Romances 9, Diary Secrets 7, 9, and Suspense 4 as a 5's and 6's.

He has many books that are listed at 6's that should be 9's, and some 8's that should be listed as 6's.

Edited July 14, 2005 by Rip

[Rip]

I'll give you one example of how I would re-write the Gerber

 

Suspense 1. Gerber 8..... Rip 7 (45+ copies)

Suspense 2. Gerber 7..... Rip 6

Suspense 3. Gerber 9..... Rip 7 (30-35+ copies)

Suspense 4. Gerber 6..... Rip 8 (around 20 copies)

Suspense 5. Gerber 6..... Rip 7

Suspense 6. Gerber 7..... Rip 7

Suspense 7. Gerber 6..... Rip 6 (possible 5)

Suspense 8. Gerber 7..... Rip 6

Suspense 9. Gerber 6..... Rip 6 (possible 5)

Suspense 10. Gerber 6....Rip 6 (possible 5)

Suspense 11. Gerber 7....Rip 6

Suspense 12. Gerber 8....Rip 6

 

Anyone else want to play??

Edited July 14, 2005 by Rip

[Rip]

Here's another: Giant Comics Editions

 

1. Gerber 8..........Rip (Does not exist)

2. Gerber 8..........Rip (Does not exist)

3. Gerber 8..........Rip (Does not exist)

4. Gerber 8...............................Rip 8 (possible 7)

5. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6

5a. Gerber 5...............................Rip 6

6. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6

7. Gerber (may not exist) 9........Rip 10

8. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6

9. Gerber 6...............................Rip 7

10. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6

11. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6 (possible 5)

12. Gerber 6...............................Rip 7

13. Gerber 8 ..............................Rip 8

14. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6

15. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6

16. Gerber 6...............................Rip 6

17nn. Gerber 6...............................Rip 7

18nn. Gerber not listed...................Rip 10

19nn. Gerber not listed...................Rip 10

[shrunkenhead]

All Negro 1: Gerber 9, I'd give it an 8

 

Suspense 3---Gerber 9, I'd give it a 7

[skybolt]

The problem with the Gerber ratings is that they don't take the condition of books into factor. For instance, if Book A has approximately 45 existing copies, but most of those were warehouse finds that grade VF and above. However, Book B has 70 existing copies, but only 3 or 4 them are considered HG. If someone is searching for a decent HG copy, then the Gerber guide can be misleading.

 

That's why I hope someone puts together a guide that rates the "Availability Factor" of a book over the past 10 years. This factor would range from 0 to 10 depending on the number of available copies, how often they show up in the market place, and in what specific grade. If only 30 copies exist of a certain book, but their owners have been hoarding them for the past 15 years, then the average buyer should be aware of that.

 

If I'm trying to complete a certain GA run in 6.0 and above range (let's say for Batman #60 to #70), and Gerber shows a 5 rating for all these books. Let's say I purchase Issues #60-69 at guide value, but pass on Issue #70 at 1.3X guide. However, I spend the next 2 years looking for a decent copy and it doesn't show up, while the rest of the books seem plentiful. I'd start kicking myself for not having purchased the book back when I had the chance. Perhaps, Gerber was wrong on the number of existing copies for this book, perhaps they were all in low grade, or perhaps the cover is so nice that none of the original owners wants to part with it. With all do respect, all of these scenarios would rate the same for me if I'm trying to complete a run.

 

An "Availabilty Factor" guide would be much more helpful to the average collector than the Gerber guide.

 

Sorry for my

[shrunkenhead]

Skybolt's raised some excellent points...my only counter would be that for the very tough books, grade is sometimes almost irrelevant (unless it's a xeroxed cover or something). I'd be interested in a copy of Blood is the Harvest, for example, in just about any grade. Or All Negro #1. You can't be picky when there's only a couple dozen floating around in the whole wide world.

 

And just my two cents, but IMO the sign of a true collectible is when grade becomes a surprisingly minor factor in the desirability and/or purchase price. There was a beater of 'Tec #1 on ebay awhile back that went for big bucks. To me, it's things like that that are the "real" collectibles. I guess the same would be true for OA, though that's not a sandbox I play in very much.

 

If another first folio of Shakespeare's plays were to pop up, I don't think anyone would give a rat's butt about quality of production or page gloss, know what I'm saying?

[skybolt]

I agree with your point on highly sought after books in very low quantities. I'm more concerned with the Gerber 3 to 6 ratings where it's pretty much no-man's land.

[*paull*]

I've been a proponent of "availability" vs. "scarcity". There are certain books that I wouldn't consider rare, but still rarely come up for sale. Some that come to mind are Horrific #3, Weird Mysteries #5, and Suspense Comics #8. None of these books are considered scarce, but they are entrenched in collections and don't come up for sale that often.

 

Edited July 16, 2005 by paull

[PovertyRow]

I've been a proponent of "availability" vs. "scarcity". There are certain books that I wouldn't consider rare, but still rarely come up for sale. Some that come to mind are Horrific #3, Weird Mysteries #5, and Suspense Comics #8. None of these books are considered scarce, but they are entrenched in collections and don't come up for sale that often.

 

You it it, paull, at least to my thinking. I've long thought the same, that while a book may seem scarce, it is actually a book that rarely is offered for sale because the collectors won't part with them.

[agro23]

Something to consider is how much of Gerber's material would be available to work from. It's my guess that they have NO interest in revisiting the books or they would have done so already. So, whoever takes on the task to revise has two options: A) start from scratch or B) contact the Gerber people and try to get the films and/or files. My chief worry about option A is that it's overwhelming to try and reacquire such a vast library of photos. My chief worry about B is that nothing exists in any form other than the films and the data would have to be hand-entered. Either option means a large committment of time from any person or group that volunteers to undertake the task.

 

It strikes me as something that might be better done as maybe a newsletter where only key sections or market segments are updated. A Comics Scarcity Update newsletter could contain some updated photos but otherwise POINT TO the Gerber books as a reference. You could print say 24 pages per issue over whatever time period each and then at the end also compile them into one or two large volumes and have the complete update at that time. Of course there may be rights issues, but a newsletter is more likely to qualify as journalism and get more liberty quoting the material than a straight update would. Of course if Gerber were on board with the idea that would help immensely...

 

But with data like what Rip provided earlier at the tip of the keyboard from many of you guys it seems like a possible task to undertake.

[precodekeith]

One book I always like to mention is Avon's EERIE #1 from 1947. Overstreet just started listing it as scarce a couple years ago. (why so long, & why the change of heart I wonder? )

 

Anyway, Scarce is supposed to be 20 - 100 exist. My update on this one is that if you check the latest CGC census alone, 25 books have been slabbed!

 

Hard for me to believe that out of a high end 100 books, 25% are already slabbed.

 

What say you all?

[Jeffreykli]

One book I always like to mention is Avon's EERIE #1 from 1947. Overstreet just started listing it as scarce a couple years ago. (why so long, & why the change of heart I wonder? )

 

Anyway, Scarce is supposed to be 20 - 100 exist. My update on this one is that if you check the latest CGC census alone, 25 books have been slabbed!

 

Hard for me to believe that out of a high end 100 books, 25% are already slabbed.

 

What say you all?

 

I'm not sure how rare/scarce the Eerie #1 is. It pops up on eBay every so often, and in San Diego, there were two raw copies. But, there were four or five Suspense #3 there, so who knows.

[action1kid]

i ,from my own experience would give eeire #1 a scarcity rating of about between 6 and 7,,so a 6.5... THATS IN ANY CONDITION...

[shrunkenhead]

One book I always like to mention is Avon's EERIE #1 from 1947. Overstreet just started listing it as scarce a couple years ago. (why so long, & why the change of heart I wonder? )

 

Anyway, Scarce is supposed to be 20 - 100 exist. My update on this one is that if you check the latest CGC census alone, 25 books have been slabbed!

 

Hard for me to believe that out of a high end 100 books, 25% are already slabbed.

 

What say you all?

 

I dunno....it's a tough call. One the one hand, it may simply be that a large percentage of Eerie #1's made it to the slab factory quickly because of the book's desirability. I mean, it seems to me a more slab-worthy book in any grade than Eerie #2, know what I mean? So in the case of a book like this, i.e. one that's regularly in demand, the census may actually be a more accurate indicator of what's out there than it is on the non-key books.

[Forbush-Man]

EERIE # 1 is more common than the 50's Phantom Strangers or Yellow Claws, which are Gerber 6's. I'd give it a Gerber 5 rating myself.