Accuracy of Gerber and Overstreet Scarcity Designations 8 8

[adamstrange]

There are about 280 collectors listed there - out of thousands then active - from which he compiled his project of the first two volumes.

 

Think about that for a sec.

 

His Scarcity Ratio Index was ultimately based off examining these 280 collection based all over the country.

 

And there were THOUSANDS of collections - still are, which he never examined.

Bob, I think most people would consider 280 out of a few thousand to be a decent statistical sampling, at least enough to draw some general conclusions. Surely you're not implying that he needed to see each and every one of those thousands of collections for his conclusions to be valid?

 

I thinks it's pretty darn likely that Gerber got help from 280 collectors for his book.

 

What I would like to establish, independent of Gerber's own words, is whether he really looked through 280 collections and got opinions of scarcity from 280 collectors. We have a post from one collector that Gerber just wanted to know about specific books and was not wading through entire collections at that point.

 

Call me skeptical, but I've seen enough self-promotion and resume enhancing to be interested in diving a little deeper. (Again, I don't knock Gerber -- see previous post for the very high praise he deserves.)

[Timulty]

I believe, though there is some inaccurate data in The Photo-Journal it is on par with such books as The Audubon Guide. It is one of the best investments, I have made as a comic collector. One of these day, I am going to compile the data into a database, for handier reference.

[jimjum12]

One objective way to sort out this issue would be to establish a website in which a poll type approach to the Gerber data could be accessed by other collectors and dealers.People could then agree or disagree as to their experiences with the projected ratios that Gerber provided us with.It could be geared toward the data in it's entirety and also be case sensitve.It would definitely be labor intensive and on- going in nature.I wish I had the expertise to initiate a project of this scope.I do know one thing,his efforts rival those of Bob Overstreet as being the most instrumental in the advancement of our hobby.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[BLBcomics-migration]

There are about 280 collectors listed there - out of thousands then active - from which he compiled his project of the first two volumes.

 

Think about that for a sec.

 

His Scarcity Ratio Index was ultimately based off examining these 280 collection based all over the country.

 

And there were THOUSANDS of collections - still are, which he never examined.

Bob, I think most people would consider 280 out of a few thousand to be a decent statistical sampling, at least enough to draw some general conclusions. Surely you're not implying that he needed to see each and every one of those thousands of collections for his conclusions to be valid?

 

I also feel that Tim has a very valid point here.

 

After all, aren't the Neilsen TV ratings based on a sample size of only 900 or some small figure like that and it's supposed to represent the viewing habits for over 200 million Americans. Of course, the sample has to be structured and set up properly to be a representative sample of the entire population. No doubt Bob's sample size of 280 (either complete or partial) would not be totally representative, but I think it's probably still good enough to provide the hobby with some relative idea of scarcity between books.

 

Took a look at the SI 4 rating and it actually covers a range of between 1,000 to 2,000 copies in existence. So Ernie definitely got the SI numbers wrong on the ASM #1. Never bother to pick up the Marvel editions, but I don't believe he has the SI ratings in there or does he? When I was deciding between GA books to buy, I would always refer to the SI rating since I felt that it was just another piece of information to factor into my purchasing decision. Although the ratings are probably not completely accurate from an absolute point of view, I always felt that they had some validity from a relative point of view.

 

Not sure about Ernie planning to produce an update every few years. I do know, however, that he was planning to produce quarterly updates for his RVI pricing index. I found this convoluted pricing index to be totally useless whereas his SI scarcity index did have some value for me, especially with respect to the earlier and rarer GA or pre-GA books.

 

Overall, I would fully agree with both Jon and Bob here on the importance of the first two volumes of his photojournal guide, since I also feel that it represents the most significant one-time comic publication to date and possibly ever, from a pure collector's point of view.

 

Once upon a time when i first began discovering EC comics, oh, this must have been around 1967, i did a series of trades and ended up thru 3 separate deals with 3 copies of vault of Horror #12

 

- now, at this time i had less than 20 EC comics, Mad #1 and Weird Science 18 19 being the first 3 i ever got my hands on during the summer of 1967.

 

Three of them were Vault 12

 

for a very long time, in my mind, Vault 12 must have been an easy issue to score, hence, i had no qualms about trading them off for other stuff i thought must be scarcer.

 

It was 17 years before i scored my 4th copy of Vault 12

 

Perception becomes reailty in the hobby of collecting comic book magazines.

 

I, too, wanted to believe the SRI ratings Ernie gave each comic book in there.

 

But then i always came back to the two Tom Reilly paragraphs following the very long Edgar Church write up in his Photo Journal Guide. How utterly wrong that supposedly "authroitative" data was on the collection i was so intimately involved with and knew very well each of the players who got in on the first third of the collection which came out of the Berkeleycon 1973 i co-hosted on the UC-Berkeley campus.

 

For some reason which eludes me to this day Ernie never talked with any of the players who were in on the initial scoring of one of the absolute finest high grade batch of comic books to ever come down the pike.

 

He never talked with Bud Plant, John Barrett, Jon Campbell, Scott Maple, David Belmont, Nick Marcus, Mike Manyak, and the final player i remember to be Bob Selvig, though on that final note, i might be misremembering.

 

David Belmont (then of New York state) might remember as there was another player involved in the initial first batch. I keeping meaning to ask David,

 

Scott Maple thinks Ernie might have talked with C&C employee Tom Walton, then the publicist of Comics & Comix, when i was no longer a part of C&C, but running my own multiple store operation and building my secondary wholesale market via a comics warehouse with a million books in it.

 

Walton knew nothing and threw out good sounding sound bytes almost always false in fact - which Ernie then must have merely transcribed a conversation as the write ups on the Reilly and Cosmic Airt Plane seemed to me almost like after-thoughts following his huge Edgar Church look-see.

 

Plus, Ernie erroneously stipulated that Tom Reilly copies were not as nice as any given Edgar Church counterpart. That they were not supple like a Mile High et al That concept, too, is erroneous in my humble opine.

 

Taking the above concepts into consideration, over the years as i talked with old time collector friends in those pre-auction house eBay days about Ernie's Scarcity Ratio Indexes, there was book after book which we would chew the fat about being no where near as scarce as Ernie made them out to be - because we could rattle off collectors we knew to have copies plus ones we had ourselves.

 

There are something like 22,000 covers in Ernie's first two volumes plus all kinds of stuff listed & priced which did not get covers posted - a phenomenal under-taking by any standards

 

No one had ever seen anything like it before in comics fandom

 

I consider the photo spreads to be essential tools of the trade, but consider much of the text data suspect. This conclusion on my part comes after almost 20 years now of looking at the tools of our trade.

 

I also do not agree with many prices on books in Overstreet, there is stuff i consider way overpriced and many books underpriced.

 

much less Wizard and the Krause Standard Guide is a pricing joke, if you ask me.

 

So, Ernie's SRI concept was a noble cause on which he never followed thru on to correct many many errors, due to forces in play which took Ernie's attention elsewhere.

 

eBay has proved, if nothing else has, just how not scarce many of the SRI high numbers are.

 

Likewise, eBay has proved that many Platinum Era comic books are not as scarce as once thought, which i track closely for corrections to the Victorian and Plat sections i compile for the Overstreet PG for a decade now.

 

I have raised certain prices reflecting the marketplace and have had no qualms about lowering prices on stuf fwhich has prived out to be way more common than originally thought to be.

 

And Ernie's SRI of 4 on AmSpi #1 being 1000 to 2000 just furthers that one issue number being out of whack. One could prove many other SRI claims to be out of whack as well.

 

I think that certain SRI claims Ernie made constituted a form of self-fulfilling prophecy inthat the collectors who believed gobbled those books up, inducing a false sense of scarcity, made them harder to acquire than reality might otherwise dictate.

 

I am also not claiming that ALL of Ernie's SRI claims are wrong or false - but many many of them are as time has proved out.

 

Robert Beerbohm

http://www.BLBComics.com

[HouseofComics.Com]

The Photo-Journal it is on par with such books as The Audubon Guide.

 

Interesting comparison.

 

It is one of the best investments, I have made as a comic collector. One of these day, I am going to compile the data into a database, for handier reference.

 

Hey, that would be cool. Take the great work and make it even more useable. People would be really thankful if you shared it.

 

I remember the ongoing Watt-Evans survey in his CBG column back in the day. Delightfully old-fashioned.

 

Marc

[adamstrange]

I remember the ongoing Watt-Evans survey in his CBG column back in the day. Delightfully old-fashioned.

 

I don't have any background on this so I would love to hear more.

 

BLB's post was also informative.

 

Gerber gave us the first draft, but he's not around to provide the second so I would love to hear from others what they know.

[jbcomicbox]

[

 

I

I remember the ongoing Watt-Evans survey in his CBG column back in the day. Delightfully old-fashioned.

 

Marc

 

I cut out and saved many of his columns...jb

[BLBcomics-migration]

[

 

I

I remember the ongoing Watt-Evans survey in his CBG column back in the day. Delightfully old-fashioned.

 

Marc

 

I cut out and saved many of his columns...jb

 

L Watt-Eavns also did the initial surveys in CBG of how many comic books had had restoration stuff done - and his numbers were huge, i thought, even by standards of almost 25 years ago now

 

About 5 years ago,some one mailed me a near complete run of CBG from the first issue up thru 1985 or so - it was in looking thru the first couple boxes i rediscovered i began advetising in there with large ads with #3, then #4, then #7 and down the road when year long contracts became available to garner ad discounts, i signed up.

 

Watt-Evans census surveys were as far as i remember the first attempts to figure this stuff out

 

bob beerbohm

[adamstrange]

[

 

I

I remember the ongoing Watt-Evans survey in his CBG column back in the day. Delightfully old-fashioned.

 

Marc

 

I cut out and saved many of his columns...jb

 

Any chance you could post one?

[jbcomicbox]

[

 

I

I remember the ongoing Watt-Evans survey in his CBG column back in the day. Delightfully old-fashioned.

 

Marc

 

I cut out and saved many of his columns...jb

 

Any chance you could post one?

 

out the door until Friday.....will try then....jon

[esquirecomics]

Ok, here is a real strange one. It is a cool collection of factoids from around the world.

 

Overstreet notes it was published in the 1930s and Gerber places publication at circa 1937 and lists it as an "8".

 

Anyone come across this book before?

 

[Montezuma]

Hi,

My name is Monty Zutz. I believe I bought some books from you in Chicago a couple years back, but there's no reason you'd remember me. If I remember right it was a couple early 1900 Comic Magazines.

I usually take the SRI index as Erinie's best guess at the time. some high SRI's show up often enough that they are probably not that scarce, while other books with SRI's of 5 or 6 never seem to be on the market.

[The Black Hand ®]

As far as the accuracy of the Journals, they are pretty much obsolete now. So many books have come out of the woodwork because of ebay and other internet sources. The Journal still may be close on some of the big ticket items like Action 1 and Detective 27 and such, but otherwise it's just gathering dust in my home now. Even for looking at covers, it's much easier to go on heritage and look through their scans or other sites that show the gerber no shows. They were great in their time but now it's difficult to even give them away.

[lou_fine]

Taking the above concepts into consideration, over the years as i talked with old time collector friends in those pre-auction house eBay days about Ernie's Scarcity Ratio Indexes, there was book after book which we would chew the fat about being no where near as scarce as Ernie made them out to be - because we could rattle off collectors we knew to have copies plus ones we had ourselves.

 

 

I think that certain SRI claims Ernie made constituted a form of self-fulfilling prophecy inthat the collectors who believed gobbled those books up, inducing a false sense of scarcity, made them harder to acquire than reality might otherwise dictate.

 

I am also not claiming that ALL of Ernie's SRI claims are wrong or false - but many many of them are as time has proved out.

 

Robert Beerbohm

http://www.BLBComics.com

 

Robert;

 

It sounds like you would probably be one of the best persons in the hobby to provide the Gerber books with a much needed Scarcity Index (SI) update. Have you ever considered getting into contact with Geppi and the people at Diamond to see if this would be a feasible idea?

 

Since we are talking about scarcity numbers here, the question of the rarest DC books have come up in these forums quite often. The most commonly mentioned DC books by the forum members when it comes to scarcity appears to be the following books along with their Gerber SI rating:

 

1) Double Action Comics #2.................SI 10 with less than 5 known copies

2) New Adventure Comics #13............ also another SI 10

3) Big Book of Fun Comics..................SI 9 with 6 to 10 copies in existent

4) New Fun Comics #2........................also another SI 9

5) New Comics #2...............................SI 7 with 21 to 50 copies in existence

 

It would be be interesting to get your feedback with respect to the Gerber SI rating on these supposedly extremely rare DC books based upon your years of experience and contacts in the hobby.

 

Any thoughts or opinions you have on the above books or any others for that matter, would be greatly appreciated.

[esquirecomics]

It sounds like you would probably be one of the best persons in the hobby to provide the Gerber books with a much needed Scarcity Index (SI) update. Have you ever considered getting into contact with Geppi and the people at Diamond to see if this would be a feasible idea?

 

Since we are talking about scarcity numbers here, the question of the rarest DC books have come up in these forums quite often. The most commonly mentioned DC books by the forum members when it comes to scarcity appears to be the following books along with their Gerber SI rating:

 

1) Double Action Comics #2.................SI 10 with less than 5 known copies

2) New Adventure Comics #13............ also another SI 10

3) Big Book of Fun Comics..................SI 9 with 6 to 10 copies in existent

4) New Fun Comics #2........................also another SI 9

5) New Comics #2...............................SI 7 with 21 to 50 copies in existence

 

It would be be interesting to get your feedback with respect to the Gerber SI rating on these supposedly extremely rare DC books based upon your years of experience and contacts in the hobby.

 

Any thoughts or opinions you have on the above books or any others for that matter, would be greatly appreciated.

 

This really needs to be done and would be a great worthwhile project. A couple of points just on the books above.

 

1) Double Action Comics #2.................SI 10 with less than 5 known copies

 

Actually might be considered an ashcan, according to an article recently posted by Moondog. Would not effect the SI, but would make it far more "typical" as to scarcity.

 

2) New Adventure Comics #13............ also another SI 10

 

The Lost Valley copy is on E-bay right now (actually I think the auction ended earlier today).

 

3) Big Book of Fun Comics..................SI 9 with 6 to 10 copies in existent

 

Geppi's copy is in the latest Heritage auction, and I know of two collectors local to me who have 2 and 1 copy each respectively!!! So sitting within 50 miles of me are 4 copies.

 

4) New Fun Comics #2........................also another SI 9

 

I know of probably the whereabouts of at least 6 copies of this issue as well.

[Timulty]

Agreed on the New Fun Comics 2. I know in the last 6 months there have been as many copies. And I know, they weren't ALL the same owners or flips.

[tth2]

For all DC books, start with at least 2 copies, for Ian Levine's and Christine Farrell's, and then add any other known copies to reach an estimate.

[Theagenes]

Just got my first Gerber 8. First appearance John Carter of Mars:

 

[Timulty]

Wow, nice book. What year is that from?

[Theagenes]

April 1939. I'm not sure how accurate the "8" rating is, but the only other one I've seen for sale recently is the one on Metro (which I've had my eye on), but it's a slightly lower grade and it's a file copy so it probably has one of those "Western Publishing" stamps on the front cover.