TOS 39 CGC 9.6 takes a hit of 75K

[lou_fine]

That's a great buy for the buyer I think. After the sale of the 9.6, I would think a 9.4 would be worth at least in the $150K range

 

Either that or the buyers of the 9.6 copies had overpaid for their copies.

 

That's the danger of playing the uber HG game as you are paying a hefty, but probably not sustainable premium for the CGC label as more copies are either found or created. Especially for Marvel SA books which are actually not so scarce when you really come down to it.

 

True as well. There are just so many variables that has to be accounted for in determining whether a book was overpaid (scarcity, desirability, movie ratings, speculations, etc). The time when the TOS #39 CGC 9.6 sold for close to $400k, was it the sole highest graded copy at that time? Now there are four 9.6 copies, which definitely would bring the value down.

 

 

Well, if this is the case, then it is quite obvious to me that the purchaser of the book at $400K had clearly overpaid for the book itself.

 

Whatever happened to the good old days when it was good to have additional copies come onto the market so that it could reaffirm the price which you had paid for the book, and at the same time, move the market forward as subsequent sales would generally take place at either the same or increasing prices. If no other copies come to market, how can the price of your book ever go up in theory. It's always good to have company since you don't want to be seen as the only fool who was willing to pay the outlier of a price for a certain book.

 

Here's my long-winded and boring theory on analyzing a CGC transaction. The value of a CGC transaction is made up of 2 parts, with the first portion being the underlying value of the book itself, and the second portion being the more subjective and changing valuation of the CGC label. The objective of a rationale purchaser should be to get the value of the book itself as close as possible to 100% of the total cost of the transaction and minimizing the cost attributed to the changing and diminishing value of the CGC label.

 

Especially when it comes to books which are being marketed as so-called "highest graded copy" because, guess what, you are most likely going to have to pay a huge premium for the CGC label portion of the total cost of the transaction. From my point of view, the underlying value of a CGC label is comprised of the independent 3rd party grading opinion and the restoration check. Anything else is really nothing more than hype and CGC fluff.

 

In virtually all cases, a book that is being marketed as highest graded copy is really just carrying a label with huge transitory value and one which will rapidly diminish over time as more equivalent or higher graded copies eventually come to market either from newly found copies or newly created upgrades from older lower graded copies. This is why we see what were once highest graded copies of books such as the above mentioned TOS 39, along with others such as AV 4, AMF 15, GL 76, IH 181, GI Joe 21, etc. take such a huge hit as more equivalent or higher graded copies find their way to market.

 

Instead of paying disproportionately for the CGC label, the rational purchaser should really be buying into books whereby the bulk of the cost is really attributed more to the underlying value of the book itself, with only a small portion of the value attributed to the transitory nature of the label. In this scenario, we would be looking at low or mid grade copies of books such as 'Tec 31 or More Fun 73 where we have already seen several transactions this year whereby these books are selling for huge amounts on a per CGC point basis. As an extreme example of my theory, these would be the types of books whereby the total cost of the transaction would be attributed largely to the underlying value of the book itself, with only a base minimal amount for the CGC label.

 

From a collector's point of view and also with one eye on the investment angle, it would always be more prudent to position yourself in a positive situation whereby the addition of new copies in any grade would serve to reaffirm the price which you had pay for your copy. As opposed to the negative situation, as tth2 had put it, whereby you live in constant terror that the discovery or creation of even a single new copy in equivalent or higher grade would serve only to crush the value which you had initially paid for your copy.

 

Bottom-line: Came into this hobby as a collector of comic books and plan to leave it as a collector of comic books with hopefully rising values, as opposed to a collector of CGC labels with diminishing values.

[tth2]

But collectors, especially high-end collectors, have always paid up for the best, before and after the advent of CGC.

 

This is why a premium has always been paid for Mile Highs and other noteworthy pedigrees. Sure, a big part of it was to have a really pristine book, but an equally big part of it was to presumptively own the best existing copy.

 

In pre-CGC days, Brulato was sifting through all the top copies to ensure he had the best copy (which CGC confirmed when it started grading them and creating a census). If a better copy came along, then he replaced his existing copy.

 

I think what you`re objecting to is that the premium has become so much higher in the post-CGC world. And I agree with that.

[Aman619]

Yes. Plus a generous portion of buyer over enthusiasm as the highest graded copies (in certainly never to be equaled grade) arrived on the scene. But I don't think long time collectors were the buyers of these "outlier books", like the first 9.6 or 9.8 copy... We were too much in shock at the willingness of newer collectors to pony up way more than we ever would. ... Plus a pretty good guess that more copies would arrive.

[Johnny545]

There have been a lot of great thoughts about why the seller took such a hit, but isn't the answer simply that there were twice as many copies in grade from when he bought to when he sold.

 

If something is half as rare why is it a suprise it sold for less?

 

In another ten years the current buyer may find the book is one of 6 or 8 9.6 copies, should he expect a return - no he will likely take a loss.

 

There are almost certainly other 9.6 copies and probably 9.8's - the seller may have gotten the best of the deal when the dust settles.

[Aman619]

Maybe so... But I thought the discussion was centered on the folly of overpaying for the highest graded copy. Even though I think there were already (at least) two 9.6s when he bought it.

 

I think it was a fairly new collector, flush with cash and the moxie to buy the best. Unfortunately, at the top of the game, you need dealers to find and broker the deals to free up the best copies. If they and the seller set the price too high, investment mistakes can happen.when you just "gotta have it"

 

Bottom line, if the buyer was amassing a portfolio of top Marvel keys, he probably did pretty well even including this loser.

[lou_fine]

But collectors, especially high-end collectors, have always paid up for the best, before and after the advent of CGC.

 

This is why a premium has always been paid for Mile Highs and other noteworthy pedigrees. Sure, a big part of it was to have a really pristine book, but an equally big part of it was to presumptively own the best existing copy.

 

In pre-CGC days, Brulato was sifting through all the top copies to ensure he had the best copy (which CGC confirmed when it started grading them and creating a census). If a better copy came along, then he replaced his existing copy.

 

I think what you`re objecting to is that the premium has become so much higher in the post-CGC world. And I agree with that.

 

No, not objecting at all to the premium that buyers are paying for their so-called "highest graded copies" as it is really the prerogative of the buyer what they are willing to pay for a book.

 

I am actually just more perplexed with board members when they seem surprised that a once former highest graded copy takes a sizeable haircut as additional copies of the book in equivalent or higher grades are found and brought to market. This should be totally expected because the premium paid for a book marketed as "highest graded copy" is only of transitory value, and guess what, will most likely disappear when it is no longer the highest graded copy or what you call the "best of the best". Anybody who thought this transitory premium would always be in place must have been drinking way too much of the CGC juice and placed far too much trust in the belief that the census numbers would never change.

 

I am also perplexed when members then seem to think the market for this particular title must be crashing when they see the the drop in price for these unique headline grabbing copies. In fact, the actual strength of a particular book is much better measured by the 99.99% of the other copies of this particular book which could in contrast, all be rising in value, but just not grabbing any of the headlines.

 

I believe collectors have always paid a pedigree premium for a Mile High, Allentown, San Francisco, or other noteworthy pedigree book. I believe this premium is not so much of a transitory nature as it is being paid for both the historical characteristics and the expected high grade condition associated with a particular pedigree collection and these 2 features will always remain with the book. Even with the Mile Highs, although the collection as a whole was always seen as the best of the best in totality, nobody ever thought that any one particular issue (generally speaking) of a Mile High was the best existing copy in the world as there could always be another nicer copy out there.

 

Would have to disagree with you then as I feel the premium was always paid for a super nice or pristine copy, but nobody was ever absurd enough to actually think that it must have been the nicest copy in existence, especially in the pre-CGC days.

[tth2]

Would have to disagree with you then as I feel the premium was always paid for a super nice or pristine copy, but nobody was ever absurd enough to actually think that it must have been the nicest copy in existence, especially in the pre-CGC days.

I would have to disagree with you then, because I think the expectation when one bought a MH copy was that it was the best.

 

Do you think that Anderson really believes there`s a better copy of Action 1 out there, or that Verzyl thinks there`s a better copy of Marvel Comics 1 out there?

 

I`m not saying it never happens, of course, as evidenced by, for example, the AT Detective 27 and Captain America 1 being better than their MH counterparts, but on the other hand Anderson and Veryzl snapped up the AT copies and probably believe that they now own the best copy in existence. Sure it`s a possibility that better copies sit out there, but the odds don`t favor it.

 

I do take your point with respect to Silver Age books, though, where there is a much higher chance of an equal or better copy existing.

[lou_fine]

I would totally agree with the examples which you have presented here as the top 0.01% of the books in the hobby are indeed well documented and talked about. (thumbs u

 

That is why I had inserted "generally speaking" in brackets as I was not referring to these headline grabbing top of the pyramid books in our hobby, but rather to the other 99.99% of the books in our hobby. Even Gator says that he finds the Overstreet guide to be irrelevant for pricing in today's market, yet when in actual fact he is only referring to the Top 100, 200 or so books which he normally deals in. Even he has acknowledged that when it comes to a no-name book like Master Comics #86 or a Jungle Comics #108, the first thing he'll go for is a copy of the OS guide.

 

Yes, you can probably hope and wish that the Church copy is the best copy out there based solely upon the reputation of this pedigree, but certainly not enough information or documentation to say that this is a safe bet for these non-top of the pyramid books.

 

So, if you are bidding and paying for the "transitory premium" that goes along with a book being marketed as a "CGC highest graded copy", just be aware that the more correct phrasing should probably really be something like "CGC highest graded copy so far to date" And hence, be well aware of the downside risk associated with this particular copy of the book.

[Aman619]

I looked at the census... The second 9.6 has been there since 2004. And the third arrived in September 2011. The fourth recently in late 2013.

 

So the buyer at 375 was not overpaying because of a perceived scarcity of the top copy. For all we know, he may have thought about an upgrade to 9.8, but reconsidered. That would have been a good gamble had it paid off, IF that played a part in his buying decision.

 

Also too, when he bought it, it STILL wasn't that bad a price given all the positive sales data for Marvel keys at that point. My personal conclusion is that the problem isn't that he paid way too much (not that he had all that much bargaining power) but that he sold too soon. Time tends to heal all overpayment wounds in our hobby.

 

But this was not a case of paying way too much for the first and only 9.8 of a semi key. Buyer knew where he stood all along.

[bluechip]

So as I understand it, these things happened:

 

Book #1, a high grade "one of a kind copy" of the first appearance of Iron Man sold for 375K.

 

Book #2, a high grade copy of the first appearance of Iron Man (which is only one of four like it) sold for 300K.

 

That should indicate the market for the first appearance of Iron Man is very strong.

 

 

 

 

[Peter G]

Comics from the "Golden Age" are so much scarcer than comics from the "Silver Age". Also, the characters from the "Silver Age" are still relatively young and therefore untested as having market longevity as compared to the "Golden Age" characters like Superman and Batman.

 

Over the long run, whether the prices on these "Silver Age" books remain sticky will be a function of assessing the true long term demand and also determining the true rarity on all these books.

 

Movie & TV media popularity will go a long way to stoking demand into a cultural phenomena, but aside from Spider-man (Amazing Fantasy 15), it is hard to see any Silver age character ever matching Batman (Detective 27) and Superman (Action 1)

 

In any event, we need more time to separate the wheat from the chafe. We need to see how these books perform in economic downturns as well as our current period.

[Aman619]

Yeah, well, golden age and silver age are terms that mean a little less each decade that passes, don't they? At this point in 2015, Superman and Batman aren't that much older than Spidey and the Hulk etc. and it's debatable which is more popular with younger fans and comics collectors. 1938 is only 23 years older, and Spidey is already 55 years old. My point is that their ages are blending together, spanning multiple generations of collectors.... And we have seen that it's the younger guys who fuel the buying as they enter the hobby. What I mean is that to my view, having grown up in the Silver Age, bronze is all regurgitated pap, with younger less skilled artists in general. But the past ten years have proved to me that the newer stuff has its own generation of fans who revere what they grew up reading.

 

But GA keys are scarcer, and should email so from here on out.

[tth2]

But GA keys are scarcer, and should email so from here on out.

Is this the new urban patois?

[Aman619]

yikes! guess I typed "remain"?

 

I hate auto correction as much as I hate making MANUAL corrections!

[zosocane]

In any event, we need more time to separate the wheat from the chafe. We need to see how these books perform in economic downturns as well as our current period.

 

Coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, SA super hero books did, generally speaking, well. I don't think another economic slowdown will hurt values on SA hero books -- rather, it will be the if and when of Marvel super hero movie fatigue kicking in, which could be years away.