TOS 39 CGC 9.6 takes a hit of 75K

[I am not Glenda]

1. The books are too expensive (particularly compared to what they cost last year)

 

2. Because they're so expensive, the cost of entry is too high ("what kid could afford to assemble a complete collection at these prices?!")

 

3. Therefore, the collector base is shrinking

 

4. Collector "A" is the market mover; if he exits, the market's going to crash

 

5. Keys are too expensive, so buy lots of non-keys instead

 

6. Scarce books are too expensive and too illiquid. Buy more common books instead.

 

Your correct in all of the above and Iv been doing this for 30yrs and heard the same thing, However the market has changed quite a bit over that time. Take a look of sales of any books for a dollar amount over 50/100k How many were there over the the last 6 month? I understand HA and CC have had record sales but who are these people & the real question is how many are the same buyers?

 

Are there record million dollar sale you bet, is there a group of buyer that can spend very large sums of cash on very high grade keys with the intent on keeping them for long term investment & making a large profit yep.

 

However imo the foundation of this hobby is not that very elite group or at least not in my world, In another post I was told a 375K book was not a big deal & there were a lot of comic collectors who could afford a 375k book. My response was I must just know a lot of poor collectors, imo these books and high sales are not the norm for most collectors, it's really simple it just cost to much for many collectors imo.

 

For example there is a reason we see AF 15 & other keys moving & going up in the 10 to 25k because its still a dollar amount that can be reached by many collectors & truth be told I would rather have 5 AF 15 4.0 then one 8.0 in terms of upward movement and ease of sale. Right now New Mutants 98 is a super hot book an a 9,8 is about 800/1200 this is a sum that the collector who come into my store can afford and feel safe buying and hoping the book takes another jump once the movie hits.

 

Keys, best of the best rare sales ect will always make the news but the so called bottom end is where all the fun is at

[rob_react]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

 

Incredible Hulk 181 in 9.8 isn't the best of the best. The 9.9 is the comparable.

 

How about the "nearly the best of the best"?

 

(thumbs u

[tth2]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

The theory doesn't apply to anything later than early SA, because the quantities available are simply too great. The scarcity factor necessary to make the formula work is missing.

 

I think that's right, but I also think those inflated prices on IH 181 -- and GL 76 and some other similar books -- was the result of people thinking they had bought the best of the best.

Yeah, but some concept of scarcity has to be attached to that, otherwise the concept of "best" is meaningless.

 

I could buy the "best" staple at an Office Depot, but if there are 1,000,000 identical and equally best staples in that store, then no value will be attached to that best-ness.

[tth2]

1. The books are too expensive (particularly compared to what they cost last year)

 

2. Because they're so expensive, the cost of entry is too high ("what kid could afford to assemble a complete collection at these prices?!")

 

3. Therefore, the collector base is shrinking

 

4. Collector "A" is the market mover; if he exits, the market's going to crash

 

5. Keys are too expensive, so buy lots of non-keys instead

 

6. Scarce books are too expensive and too illiquid. Buy more common books instead.

 

Your correct in all of the above and Iv been doing this for 30yrs and heard the same thing, However the market has changed quite a bit over that time. Take a look of sales of any books for a dollar amount over 50/100k How many were there over the the last 6 month? I understand HA and CC have had record sales but who are these people & the real question is how many are the same buyers?

 

Are there record million dollar sale you bet, is there a group of buyer that can spend very large sums of cash on very high grade keys with the intent on keeping them for long term investment & making a large profit yep.

 

However imo the foundation of this hobby is not that very elite group or at least not in my world, In another post I was told a 375K book was not a big deal & there were a lot of comic collectors who could afford a 375k book. My response was I must just know a lot of poor collectors, imo these books and high sales are not the norm for most collectors, it's really simple it just cost to much for many collectors imo.

 

For example there is a reason we see AF 15 & other keys moving & going up in the 10 to 25k because its still a dollar amount that can be reached by many collectors & truth be told I would rather have 5 AF 15 4.0 then one 8.0 in terms of upward movement and ease of sale. Right now New Mutants 98 is a super hot book an a 9,8 is about 800/1200 this is a sum that the collector who come into my store can afford and feel safe buying and hoping the book takes another jump once the movie hits.

 

Keys, best of the best rare sales ect will always make the news but the so called bottom end is where all the fun is at

I hear what you're saying, but this is the way it's always been and it's now 2015 and I'm still waiting for comic collecting to have imploded upon itself.

 

$375K for a TOS 39 is actually less unfathomable today than $40K was for an AF 15 in the early 1990s. That amount was truly incomprehensible for a SA book at the time. The kind of comments you've made above in your post, all of which are perfectly reasonable comments, were also made at the time:

 

"but who are these people & the real question is how many are the same buyers?"

 

"is there a group of buyer that can spend very large sums of cash on very high grade keys with the intent on keeping them for long term investment & making a large profit"

 

The answer is there were apparently enough buyers either in the hobby or who came into the hobby, that 20 years later, $40K for the WM AF 15 seems like a fantastic bargain. It wasn't just a mirage or some cartel trying to manipulate prices upwards.

 

And I have no reason to think it is today either, because the hobby's too small, people like to talk too much, and the market is actually so much more liquid than it used to be, for any conspiracy to be successfully pulled off.

 

 

[rob_react]

1. The books are too expensive (particularly compared to what they cost last year)

 

2. Because they're so expensive, the cost of entry is too high ("what kid could afford to assemble a complete collection at these prices?!")

 

3. Therefore, the collector base is shrinking

 

4. Collector "A" is the market mover; if he exits, the market's going to crash

 

5. Keys are too expensive, so buy lots of non-keys instead

 

6. Scarce books are too expensive and too illiquid. Buy more common books instead.

 

Your correct in all of the above and Iv been doing this for 30yrs and heard the same thing, However the market has changed quite a bit over that time. Take a look of sales of any books for a dollar amount over 50/100k How many were there over the the last 6 month? I understand HA and CC have had record sales but who are these people & the real question is how many are the same buyers?

 

Are there record million dollar sale you bet, is there a group of buyer that can spend very large sums of cash on very high grade keys with the intent on keeping them for long term investment & making a large profit yep.

 

However imo the foundation of this hobby is not that very elite group or at least not in my world, In another post I was told a 375K book was not a big deal & there were a lot of comic collectors who could afford a 375k book. My response was I must just know a lot of poor collectors, imo these books and high sales are not the norm for most collectors, it's really simple it just cost to much for many collectors imo.

 

For example there is a reason we see AF 15 & other keys moving & going up in the 10 to 25k because its still a dollar amount that can be reached by many collectors & truth be told I would rather have 5 AF 15 4.0 then one 8.0 in terms of upward movement and ease of sale. Right now New Mutants 98 is a super hot book an a 9,8 is about 800/1200 this is a sum that the collector who come into my store can afford and feel safe buying and hoping the book takes another jump once the movie hits.

 

Keys, best of the best rare sales ect will always make the news but the so called bottom end is where all the fun is at

I hear what you're saying, but this is the way it's always been and it's now 2015 and I'm still waiting for comic collecting to have imploded upon itself.

 

$375K for a TOS 39 is actually less fathomable today than $40K was for an AF 15 in the early 1990s. That amount was truly incomprehensible for a SA book at the time. The kind of comments you've made above in your post, all of which are perfectly reasonable comments, were also made at the time:

 

"but who are these people & the real question is how many are the same buyers?"

 

"is there a group of buyer that can spend very large sums of cash on very high grade keys with the intent on keeping them for long term investment & making a large profit"

 

The answer is there were apparently enough buyers either in the hobby or who came into the hobby, that 20 years later, $40K for the WM AF 15 seems like a fantastic bargain. It wasn't just a mirage or some cartel trying to manipulate prices upwards.

 

And I have no reason to think it is today either, because the hobby's too small, people like to talk too much, and the market is actually so much more liquid than it used to be, for any conspiracy to be successfully pulled off.

 

 

Honestly, I don't know of any key silver or golden age sale in the CGC era that would compare in terms of reaction to the reaction to that AF 15 sale (and 24k for the FF1 as well). This sale fits in a certain context. Even the million dollar sales make sense and made sense at the time they happened. That sale? That was like the roof had been torn off.

[lou_fine]

The problem with Rob's formula for success is that the number of people who can afford to buy on an open-ended time horizon are very very few. It didn't used to be that way. Obviously, if you were a collector in the 60s or 70s you have no economic imperative to sell because you feel no pain resulting from the small dollars you spent on those books. Today? That formula doesn't work anymore because the entry fees are so high.

 

In that sense, it may well be that the prices of books in broader demand (cheaper, more plentiful, more available buyers), yes even an IH 181, have a much firmer foundation for their prices than the "best of the best" that are obtainable (or desired) only a by a few fanatics with resources.

 

Yes, I am in agreement with you that the best of the best approach may no longer be the most profitable way to go, especially in terms of the higher price keys. Maybe it's better to go with the "worst of the best" approach as many of the keys are now able to achieve multiples of guide in low grade, and for some GA books, even in restored condition now. This shift to the lower grades has also been noted and reported on by several of the advisors in their market reports in the latest edition of the Overstreet guide.

 

The barriers to entry for some of these keys in high grade are just so far past the average collector that they are now more than willing to pay for a lower grade and/or restored copy just to get a copy of the book. This is actually a good thing as the collectibility of a book is better measured when based upon its strength across all condition grades, as opposed to its strength just in its highest grade only. (thumbs u

[I am not Glenda]

The barriers to entry for some of these keys in high grade are just so far past the average collector that they are now more than willing to pay for a lower grade and/or restored copy just to get a copy of the book. This is actually a good thing as the collectibility of a book is better measured when based upon its strength across all condition grades, as opposed to its strength just in its highest grade only.

 

I wish I had said that because IMO its dead on!

 

Few things to note that only supports this ,,,,,,,, anyone who has been in this hobby a long time should recall when keys or even non keys with no cover or with resto ( the dreaded the purple label) were not looked upon as having much if any value & were nothing more then fillers until you could upgrade, that is now a thing of the past , A Cap cover just sold for 10k, 10k! Thats a sale that should have made headlines.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

 

What was the sale price for the first 9.8 copy of IH 181?

 

Can't remember off the top of my head, but wasn't it something like >$20K or possibly even >$30K?

Two big influences of change I noticed were.

1.

Most collectors weren't wise at the beginning of GCG grading that a lot of bronze and copper 9.8s were getting pressed from 9.6s to 9.8s.

Once the majority of collectors found out that a IH 181 9.6 could easily pressed into a 9.8,than the bloom went off the rose for paying outrageous sums for bronze and copper 9.8s.

Example are Daredevil #158 and #181 9.8s.

 

2. In the beginning of CGC you had the very hard core anal high grade collectors.

They dominated the markets early on, now after the movies made the comic books more popular again you have an influx of new comic book collectors who could care less about having the top grade. Where as before a CGC 9.6 was most sought out by the high grade hard core anal collectors we find that these new collectors will be just happy with a CGC 4.0.

 

Both of these observations are very important because

1.

To the average collector a bronze and copper 9.8 is now considered easy to get because of pressing, thus lessening the desirability which leads to lower prices.

 

2.

Now that the hard core anal high grade collectors are no longer the majority compared to the new movie hype collectors this causes high grade comic book prices to drop.

[sfcityduck]

The problem with Rob's formula for success is that the number of people who can afford to buy on an open-ended time horizon are very very few. It didn't used to be that way. Obviously, if you were a collector in the 60s or 70s you have no economic imperative to sell because you feel no pain resulting from the small dollars you spent on those books. Today? That formula doesn't work anymore because the entry fees are so high.

 

In that sense, it may well be that the prices of books in broader demand (cheaper, more plentiful, more available buyers), yes even an IH 181, have a much firmer foundation for their prices than the "best of the best" that are obtainable (or desired) only a by a few fanatics with resources.

 

Yes, I am in agreement with you that the best of the best approach may no longer be the most profitable way to go, especially in terms of the higher price keys. Maybe it's better to go with the "worst of the best" approach as many of the keys are now able to achieve multiples of guide in low grade, and for some GA books, even in restored condition now. This shift to the lower grades has also been noted and reported on by several of the advisors in their market reports in the latest edition of the Overstreet guide.

 

The barriers to entry for some of these keys in high grade are just so far past the average collector that they are now more than willing to pay for a lower grade and/or restored copy just to get a copy of the book. This is actually a good thing as the collectibility of a book is better measured when based upon its strength across all condition grades, as opposed to its strength just in its highest grade only. (thumbs u

 

That is exactly one of my points. I'm not saying comic collecting is doomed and a broad crash is inevitable. I am saying that we have repeatedly seen localized crashes for specific high end books when the demand changed due to the exit of a single person. Think about that for a second: The exit of a single person can dramatically alter the market for a book. That is the definition of a thin market.

 

Comic collecting generally is not that big a market. Heritage does $20M annually in sales at comic auctions. That's just 2.2% of its total $900M in auction sales. I can think of a single collectible car auction that nets over $100M in two days. Sotheby does many billions in business in the fine art market. The collectible comic market, by comparison, involves far less money and bidders. On the high end, it is a thin market. And I really don't see how anyone can contend that there are not multiple examples where the exit of single individuals have had a dramatic effect on prices. As just one example, remember what happened to the high grade Flash Comics? And wasn't there a similar event for duck books? Remember JP? I have read dealers commenting the market for higher end Fawcetts stagnated because key collectors died. There are lots of examples of specific books taking a big hit when "flipped."

 

A far better place to assess strength of demand for a book, and the robustness of the market, is at the lower price levels (and lower grades for bigger books) where there are far more buyers providing a far stronger base for price support.

 

Indeed, the guys I know who own big books, in one case many many big books, simply could not afford to purchase their own collections. It's a different world now. They bought the books in the 60s and 70s when entry barriers didn't exist or were very low.

[Comicdey]

Its not just the 100k + comics...

 

The entry point continues to climb in many areas.

 

My personal experience is highlighted with my two TOS 39's

 

My raw 8.5 was purchased for $300 in '85

My slabbed 8.0 was purchased for over $10k post 2010.

 

Now entry is probably $15K+

 

Even on this small scale many are now priced out and are definitely priced out at higher grades. How many 17 year olds can afford a $15k comic these days whereas I bought mine for $300.

 

The good thing I see is that copies are still in range of most collectors with a little savvy for anything except the best GA keys.

[Peter G]

 

30 years of collecting as taught me that if you buy the best of the best that a person will do very well in the long term

 

Now ascertaining what is the "best of the best" is a different topic entirely.

 

You forgot a very important factor:

 

30 years of collecting has taught me that if you buy the best of the best at a reasonable price that a person will do very well in the long term

 

Now ascertaining what is the "best of the best" and "at a reasonable price" is a different topic entirely.

Actually, I would disagree and say that if anything, history has taught us completely the opposite.

 

2 of the most highly criticized transactions I can remember are Anderson's purchase of the MH Action 1-20 run for $20K and the purchase of the WM AF 15 for $40K. They clearly satisfied the "best of the best" criteria but I challenge you to find anyone who said at the time that a "reasonable price" was paid. Most of the comments went the other way.

 

Similarly, prices paid for the MH collection when it was first brought to market by Chuck. Yeah, buyers paid up, but there was a lot of criticism of his outrageous pricing. Similarly, prices paid for the PC Marvels when Pacific Coast brought the books to market.

 

The same goes for virtually any "best of the best" book purchased in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. History has shown that literally any price paid back then, no matter how insane it might have been considered at the time, turned out to be a great purchase (unless the book turns out to have been restored).

 

Yup

 

Couldn't have said it better myself !

[paul747]

9.4 just sold on CLink for 109,000. Did not last long , sold fast.

[jreezy]

9.4 just sold on CLink for 109,000. Did not last long , sold fast.

 

[Dark Knight]

That's a great buy for the buyer I think. After the sale of the 9.6, I would think a 9.4 would be worth at least in the $150K range

[Peter G]

Good buy

[lou_fine]

That's a great buy for the buyer I think. After the sale of the 9.6, I would think a 9.4 would be worth at least in the $150K range

 

Either that or the buyers of the 9.6 copies had overpaid for their copies.

 

That's the danger of playing the uber HG game as you are paying a hefty, but probably not sustainable premium for the CGC label as more copies are either found or created. Especially for Marvel SA books which are actually not so scarce when you really come down to it.

[Dark Knight]

That's a great buy for the buyer I think. After the sale of the 9.6, I would think a 9.4 would be worth at least in the $150K range

 

Either that or the buyers of the 9.6 copies had overpaid for their copies.

 

That's the danger of playing the uber HG game as you are paying a hefty, but probably not sustainable premium for the CGC label as more copies are either found or created. Especially for Marvel SA books which are actually not so scarce when you really come down to it.

 

True as well. There are just so many variables that has to be accounted for in determining whether a book was overpaid (scarcity, desirability, movie ratings, speculations, etc). The time when the TOS #39 CGC 9.6 sold for close to $400k, was it the sole highest graded copy at that time? Now there are four 9.6 copies, which definitely would bring the value down.

 

We can also take into account other high grade keys that sold if those were overpaid as well. Just tough to really pinpoint the proper value of a book.

[tth2]

That's a great buy for the buyer I think. After the sale of the 9.6, I would think a 9.4 would be worth at least in the $150K range

 

Either that or the buyers of the 9.6 copies had overpaid for their copies.

 

That's the danger of playing the uber HG game as you are paying a hefty, but probably not sustainable premium for the CGC label as more copies are either found or created. Especially for Marvel SA books which are actually not so scarce when you really come down to it.

It must be tough to live a life in constant terror.

[Gotham Kid]

9.4 just sold on CLink for 109,000. Did not last long , sold fast.

 

Not true. It was originally listed at a higher price. It was listed before the 9.6 showed up. The BIN price has consecutively been reduced until finally a Best Offer of 109k was accepted.

[Silver Surfer]

9.4 just sold on CLink for 109,000. Did not last long , sold fast.

 

I wonder if it will be CRP'd over and over again until a 9.6 is achieved? [i haven't seen the book].