TOS 39 CGC 9.6 takes a hit of 75K

[Guardian Comics]

if the seller was Canadian and sold for the stronger US dollar

 

the seller also bought the book in USD

 

Yes but if he bought it last summer for 375k, it would have cost 375k CDN...as the dollar was on par (give or take a couple of percentage points). He sells today for 300k at a 1.33 a U.S. dollar is now worth, he made 25 grand.

 

Not saying it's the case here, but always a possibility..

 

Jim

[rob_react]

 

30 years of collecting as taught me that if you buy the best of the best that a person will do very well in the long term

 

Now ascertaining what is the "best of the best" is a different topic entirely.

 

You forgot a very important factor:

 

30 years of collecting has taught me that if you buy the best of the best at a reasonable price that a person will do very well in the long term

 

Now ascertaining what is the "best of the best" and "at a reasonable price" is a different topic entirely.

Actually, I would disagree and say that if anything, history has taught us completely the opposite.

 

2 of the most highly criticized transactions I can remember are Anderson's purchase of the MH Action 1-20 run for $20K and the purchase of the WM AF 15 for $40K. They clearly satisfied the "best of the best" criteria but I challenge you to find anyone who said at the time that a "reasonable price" was paid. Most of the comments went the other way.

 

Similarly, prices paid for the MH collection when it was first brought to market by Chuck. Yeah, buyers paid up, but there was a lot of criticism of his outrageous pricing. Similarly, prices paid for the PC Marvels when Pacific Coast brought the books to market.

 

The same goes for virtually any "best of the best" book purchased in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. History has shown that literally any price paid back then, no matter how insane it might have been considered at the time, turned out to be a great purchase (unless the book turns out to have been restored).

 

Buy the best + an open-ended time horizon = winning comic book formula. If you're doing this stuff you better not need the money in the short term (at least 5 years) and then you've got a chance. I think that even the guy who bought all those Amazing Spider-Mans at the very top of the movie hype cycle and then took a bath at Heritage would be doing okay if that sale took place now. Same with JP (although he was more than capable of eating the losses and was consciously moving out of the market.)

[Spiderphill]

That book in that grade comes up for sale too often. It impacts the "specialness" of it.

 

AF 15 is the number 3 book in the hobby. If a 9.6 came up now I'd wager it would break 1.2M.

 

-J.

Thinking Cap 1 is the #3 currently but I do agree that any AF15 9.6 that hits the market is a 1M sale.

[rob_react]

That book in that grade comes up for sale too often. It impacts the "specialness" of it.

 

AF 15 is the number 3 book in the hobby. If a 9.6 came up now I'd wager it would break 1.2M.

 

-J.

Thinking Cap 1 is the #3 currently but I do agree that any AF15 9.6 that hits the market is a 1M sale.

 

By value? It's not Cap #1. I don't think Cap #1 is even in the top 5. Superman #1 blows it out of the water. Basically any unrestored copy of Superman #1 is a $100,000 comic now. Lower grade Cap #1s sell for half that. And if a high grade Superman #1 (9+) were ever to surface it would pummel Cap #1 (including the 9.8) since it's so tough in high grade.

 

Batman #1 beats it too. Grade for grade Batman #1 outsellf Cap #1, including at the top end- two 9.2s, the Batman #1 sold for $567,000 the Cap #1 sold for $300,000.

[Dark Knight]

That book in that grade comes up for sale too often. It impacts the "specialness" of it.

 

AF 15 is the number 3 book in the hobby. If a 9.6 came up now I'd wager it would break 1.2M.

 

-J.

Thinking Cap 1 is the #3 currently but I do agree that any AF15 9.6 that hits the market is a 1M sale.

 

By value? It's not Cap #1. I don't think Cap #1 is even in the top 5. Superman #1 blows it out of the water. Basically any unrestored copy of Superman #1 is a $100,000 comic now. Lower grade Cap #1s sell for half that. And if a high grade Superman #1 (9+) were ever to surface it would pummel Cap #1 (including the 9.8) since it's so tough in high grade.

 

Batman #1 beats it too. Grade for grade Batman #1 outsellf Cap #1, including at the top end- two 9.2s, the Batman #1 sold for $567,000 the Cap #1 sold for $300,000.

 

[Jaydogrules]

That book in that grade comes up for sale too often. It impacts the "specialness" of it.

 

AF 15 is the number 3 book in the hobby. If a 9.6 came up now I'd wager it would break 1.2M.

 

-J.

Thinking Cap 1 is the #3 currently but I do agree that any AF15 9.6 that hits the market is a 1M sale.

 

By value? It's not Cap #1. I don't think Cap #1 is even in the top 5. Superman #1 blows it out of the water. Basically any unrestored copy of Superman #1 is a $100,000 comic now. Lower grade Cap #1s sell for half that. And if a high grade Superman #1 (9+) were ever to surface it would pummel Cap #1 (including the 9.8) since it's so tough in high grade.

 

Batman #1 beats it too. Grade for grade Batman #1 outsellf Cap #1, including at the top end- two 9.2s, the Batman #1 sold for $567,000 the Cap #1 sold for $300,000.

 

Realistically, from a value standpoint alone, cap 1 is most likely a top 5 book in the hobby.

 

However when I referred to AF 15 as the #3 book in the hobby, I wasn't speaking from a strictly value standpoint (although that also plays a big role).

 

Cultural influence, impact on the hobby, current sales, character longevity, influence and inspiration for other characters, collector demand, etc etc etc. All of these things are what makes AF 15 the #3 book in the hobby.

 

-J.

 

 

[rob_react]

That book in that grade comes up for sale too often. It impacts the "specialness" of it.

 

AF 15 is the number 3 book in the hobby. If a 9.6 came up now I'd wager it would break 1.2M.

 

-J.

Thinking Cap 1 is the #3 currently but I do agree that any AF15 9.6 that hits the market is a 1M sale.

 

By value? It's not Cap #1. I don't think Cap #1 is even in the top 5. Superman #1 blows it out of the water. Basically any unrestored copy of Superman #1 is a $100,000 comic now. Lower grade Cap #1s sell for half that. And if a high grade Superman #1 (9+) were ever to surface it would pummel Cap #1 (including the 9.8) since it's so tough in high grade.

 

Batman #1 beats it too. Grade for grade Batman #1 outsellf Cap #1, including at the top end- two 9.2s, the Batman #1 sold for $567,000 the Cap #1 sold for $300,000.

 

Realistically, from a value standpoint alone, cap 1 is most likely a top 5 book in the hobby.

 

What the future might bring is an interesting question to ponder since its the only meaningful (from a modern perspective) Timely key. I still think it's behind Action 1, Detective 27, Superman 1, Batman 1, and Marvel Comics 1 in all grades and in the range of Amazing Fantasy 15 and Hulk 1 in high grade.

[sfcityduck]

if the seller was Canadian and sold for the stronger US dollar

 

the seller also bought the book in USD

 

Yes but if he bought it last summer for 375k, it would have cost 375k CDN...as the dollar was on par (give or take a couple of percentage points). He sells today for 300k at a 1.33 a U.S. dollar is now worth, he made 25 grand.

 

Not saying it's the case here, but always a possibility..

 

Jim

 

First, up thread it was stated the seller wasn't Canadian.

 

But, even if he was, it would be scant comfort that he's making more CDN to the USD on this transaction then last summer if he is selling to reinvest in U.S. comics (or to buy any products that have gone up in price in Canada due to the collapse of its currency compared to the dollar). Bottom line, is he taking a loss.

[lou_fine]

 

30 years of collecting as taught me that if you buy the best of the best that a person will do very well in the long term

 

Now ascertaining what is the "best of the best" is a different topic entirely.

 

You forgot a very important factor:

 

30 years of collecting has taught me that if you buy the best of the best at a reasonable price that a person will do very well in the long term

 

Now ascertaining what is the "best of the best" and "at a reasonable price" is a different topic entirely.

Actually, I would disagree and say that if anything, history has taught us completely the opposite.

 

2 of the most highly criticized transactions I can remember are Anderson's purchase of the MH Action 1-20 run for $20K and the purchase of the WM AF 15 for $40K. They clearly satisfied the "best of the best" criteria but I challenge you to find anyone who said at the time that a "reasonable price" was paid. Most of the comments went the other way.

 

For what it''s worth, here is my take on these 2 particular transactions. The Church Action run is an example of buying the best of the best at a reasonable price while the Sotheby's sale of the White Mountain AF 15 fails the "buying at a reasonable price" test.

 

To correct your numbers on the Action Mile Highs, I believe the price for the MH Action 1 by itself was something like $25K at a time when the guide price was close to $15K on the book. Although the price was definitely high at the time, it appears to be reasonable as Chuckles made an exception for this book and did not stick to the multiple pricing rule that he had in place for all of his other MH books. Probably due to the absolute dollar amount involved as the Action 1 was already the most expensive book in the hobby at the time.

 

The White Mountain AF 15, on the other hand, clearly was not done at a reasonable price at the time (from my point of view only, of course) as the guide price at the time was only something like $7K. This was an unheard of multiple to be paying at the time and way past the reasonable premium (i.e. no multiple) that had been paid for the MH Action 1.

 

Unfortunately for the buyer, his apparent attempt at returning the book was rebuffed by Sotheby's and he was basically stuck with the book. If I remember correctly, it took many attempts over the next several years before the purchaser was finally able to unload the book at a profitable price. Looking back now 20 years later, it looks like a steal, but only because of Rob's theory which is:

 

Buy the best + an open-ended time horizon = winning comic book formula

 

 

 

The same goes for virtually any "best of the best" book purchased in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. History has shown that literally any price paid back then, no matter how insane it might have been considered at the time, turned out to be a great purchase (unless the book turns out to have been restored).

 

Even restored books will turn out to be winners given an open-ended time horizon. At least it is the case so far with the GA keys and semi-keys. Not so sure about the other ages though.

[Sqeggs]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

[sfcityduck]

The problem with Rob's formula for success is that the number of people who can afford to buy on an open-ended time horizon are very very few. It didn't used to be that way. Obviously, if you were a collector in the 60s or 70s you have no economic imperative to sell because you feel no pain resulting from the small dollars you spent on those books. Today? That formula doesn't work anymore because the entry fees are so high.

 

Which explains why the market for high end comics is now very very tiny. The entry or exit of a single buyer has repeatedly been shown to cause huge swings in the value of a book. Here, a TOS 39 takes a 20% hit. We've seen other examples where "best of the best" high grade golden age books took ridiculous leaps in price due to a single buyer's entry into the market and then crashed when that buyer left the market.

 

In that sense, it may well be that the prices of books in broader demand (cheaper, more plentiful, more available buyers), yes even an IH 181, have a much firmer foundation for their prices than the "best of the best" that are obtainable (or desired) only a by a few fanatics with resources.

[lou_fine]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

 

What was the sale price for the first 9.8 copy of IH 181?

 

Can't remember off the top of my head, but wasn't it something like >$20K or possibly even >$30K?

[Sqeggs]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

 

What was the sale price for the first 9.8 copy of IH 181?

 

Can't remember off the top of my head, but wasn't it something like >$20K or possibly even >$30K?

 

Could be. The earliest sale of a 9.8 listed on GPA is for $19K in Feb 2003. The highest is for $26.5K in Sept 2009.

[rob_react]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

 

Incredible Hulk 181 in 9.8 isn't the best of the best. The 9.9 is the comparable.

[Sqeggs]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

 

Incredible Hulk 181 in 9.8 isn't the best of the best. The 9.9 is the comparable.

 

How about the "nearly the best of the best"?

[tth2]

To correct your numbers on the Action Mile Highs, I believe the price for the MH Action 1 by itself was something like $25K at a time when the guide price was close to $15K on the book. Although the price was definitely high at the time, it appears to be reasonable as Chuckles made an exception for this book and did not stick to the multiple pricing rule that he had in place for all of his other MH books. Probably due to the absolute dollar amount involved as the Action 1 was already the most expensive book in the hobby at the time.

Thanks for correcting my figures, you are correct on that score. However, I would strongly dispute that anyone thought the price was reasonable at the time.

[tth2]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

The theory doesn't apply to anything later than early SA, because the quantities available are simply too great. The scarcity factor necessary to make the formula work is missing.

[tth2]

The problem with Rob's formula for success is that the number of people who can afford to buy on an open-ended time horizon are very very few. It didn't used to be that way. Obviously, if you were a collector in the 60s or 70s you have no economic imperative to sell because you feel no pain resulting from the small dollars you spent on those books. Today? That formula doesn't work anymore because the entry fees are so high.

 

Which explains why the market for high end comics is now very very tiny. The entry or exit of a single buyer has repeatedly been shown to cause huge swings in the value of a book. Here, a TOS 39 takes a 20% hit. We've seen other examples where "best of the best" high grade golden age books took ridiculous leaps in price due to a single buyer's entry into the market and then crashed when that buyer left the market.

 

In that sense, it may well be that the prices of books in broader demand (cheaper, more plentiful, more available buyers), yes even an IH 181, have a much firmer foundation for their prices than the "best of the best" that are obtainable (or desired) only a by a few fanatics with resources.

What you've said is what I've been hearing for literally the entire 40 years that I've been collecting comics.

 

At literally every given moment in time during the history of comic collecting, people have been saying:

 

1. The books are too expensive (particularly compared to what they cost last year)

 

2. Because they're so expensive, the cost of entry is too high ("what kid could afford to assemble a complete collection at these prices?!")

 

3. Therefore, the collector base is shrinking

 

4. Collector "A" is the market mover; if he exits, the market's going to crash

 

5. Keys are too expensive, so buy lots of non-keys instead

 

6. Scarce books are too expensive and too illiquid. Buy more common books instead.

[Sqeggs]

Re buying the best of the best: There are six sales of IH 181 9.8s listed on GPA above $20K between 2004 and 2010. Highest sale this year is $13K. 12-mo average is <$12K.

The theory doesn't apply to anything later than early SA, because the quantities available are simply too great. The scarcity factor necessary to make the formula work is missing.

 

I think that's right, but I also think those inflated prices on IH 181 -- and GL 76 and some other similar books -- was the result of people thinking they had bought the best of the best.

[Sqeggs]

The problem with Rob's formula for success is that the number of people who can afford to buy on an open-ended time horizon are very very few. It didn't used to be that way. Obviously, if you were a collector in the 60s or 70s you have no economic imperative to sell because you feel no pain resulting from the small dollars you spent on those books. Today? That formula doesn't work anymore because the entry fees are so high.

 

Which explains why the market for high end comics is now very very tiny. The entry or exit of a single buyer has repeatedly been shown to cause huge swings in the value of a book. Here, a TOS 39 takes a 20% hit. We've seen other examples where "best of the best" high grade golden age books took ridiculous leaps in price due to a single buyer's entry into the market and then crashed when that buyer left the market.

 

In that sense, it may well be that the prices of books in broader demand (cheaper, more plentiful, more available buyers), yes even an IH 181, have a much firmer foundation for their prices than the "best of the best" that are obtainable (or desired) only a by a few fanatics with resources.

What you've said is what I've been hearing for literally the entire 40 years that I've been collecting comics.

 

At literally every given moment in time during the history of comic collecting, people have been saying:

 

1. The books are too expensive (particularly compared to what they cost last year)

 

2. Because they're so expensive, the cost of entry is too high ("what kid could afford to assemble a complete collection at these prices?!")

 

3. Therefore, the collector base is shrinking

 

4. Collector "A" is the market mover; if he exits, the market's going to crash

 

5. Keys are too expensive, so buy lots of non-keys instead

 

6. Scarce books are too expensive and too illiquid. Buy more common books instead.

 

I'm old enough to remember someone complaining that the hobby was going to hell in a hand basket because a guy paid $20 for a Superman 1. The argument was that at those prices, people couldn't hope to complete runs and if people felt they couldn't complete runs, the hobby was doomed.

 

Not to say that the hobby isn't doomed.