Asking prices for OA thoughts

[Meeley Man]

If they take time off, or decide not to bid, what you see is the price for an item when not being driven by the hyper-motivated ultra deep pocket collector that exists outside the norm when it comes to buying art. I'm not saying they are artificially driving prices up, but what they are doing is competing with 2-3 others who have at this time decided "I gotta get me all these Paul Chadwick pages". They are establishing new high's, good for them. But for the other 1000+ folks who want those pages, the prices the Oligarchs pay for trinkets is far fetched and out of reach. If for any reason those 3 folks decide to call it a day, the price will drop down to where the normal folks play.

 

Besides, if you truly have a passion for collecting something, if it goes to major widely known/accepted auction and you truly care, you will make note and pay attention. You will bid.

 

Again, that is only if they can bid. What if they are bidding on other things and can't bid until those end, which is after your auction? What if they "missed" that one (no one is infallible)? What if it came up when they were lacking funds to really bid (the "normal folks" don't have tons of disposable cash on hand, as you inferred yourself)? What if shilling is going on (something everyone has become much more leary about with some sellers and auction houses of late)? You see, there are factors involved that go beyond just the "Olegs being Olegs." That very instability you noted is why auctions cannot be seen as the authority, case closed, unquestionable standard of FMV. They can be a guide (so long as you don't think they are highly corrupted by shilling and the like), but they can never be the rock solid authority of FMV.

[mister_not_so_nice]

There's no greater teacher than experience. There IS often an arbitrary element to pricing. So, if you buy, you may end up paying "too much". If you're deathly afraid of "overpaying", then this hobby isn't for you.

 

Those of us who have been in the hobby a while, have taken our share of lumps. It comes with the territory. it's called tuition. There ain't no free lunch. But this tuition is what sharpens your gut for each successive deal...if you've got half a brain, you should start figuring things out pretty quickly.

 

The flip side is when you pass on something that you think is overpriced...and it turns out not to be.

 

You should use it all to calibrate. It takes time, it doesn't happen overnight. Most every collector I know who's been at this for a while, has it figured out for themselves. That doesn't mean they don't overpay...it just means that they pick their spots and when they do overpay, it doesn't matter because they'll be keeping the piece for the long haul. Of course, no one wants to take a bath, but that's not a primary concern, either. I do get the sense that those who are most concerned with overpaying, are already thinking of selling. IMO, if you don't plan on keeping the piece long term, then you probably don't like it enough to buy. I wish you luck.

 

 

 

"I never walk into a place I don't know how to walk out of"

- from the movie RONIN

[theflashunc]

There's no greater teacher than experience. There IS often an arbitrary element to pricing. So, if you buy, you may end up paying "too much". If you're deathly afraid of "overpaying", then this hobby isn't for you.

 

Those of us who have been in the hobby a while, have taken our share of lumps. It comes with the territory. it's called tuition. There ain't no free lunch. But this tuition is what sharpens your gut for each successive deal...if you've got half a brain, you should start figuring things out pretty quickly.

 

The flip side is when you pass on something that you think is overpriced...and it turns out not to be.

 

You should use it all to calibrate. It takes time, it doesn't happen overnight. Most every collector I know who's been at this for a while, has it figured out for themselves. That doesn't mean they don't overpay...it just means that they pick their spots and when they do overpay, it doesn't matter because they'll be keeping the piece for the long haul. Of course, no one wants to take a bath, but that's not a primary concern, either. I do get the sense that those who are most concerned with overpaying, are already thinking of selling. IMO, if you don't plan on keeping the piece long term, then you probably don't like it enough to buy. I wish you luck.

 

 

 

"I never walk into a place I don't know how to walk out of"

- from the movie RONIN

 

To keep the metaphor going, isn't it a matter of how someone wants to "walk out" of a place? If you want to walk out all chill while the place blows up behind you in slo-mo, that's wayyyyy different from diving out the window to dodge the hail of bullets. You're alive in either scenario, but in one you're picking glass shards out of god-knows-where for days after.

 

Either way does the job, but I guess it comes down to individual comfort level.

[zhamlau]

If they take time off, or decide not to bid, what you see is the price for an item when not being driven by the hyper-motivated ultra deep pocket collector that exists outside the norm when it comes to buying art. I'm not saying they are artificially driving prices up, but what they are doing is competing with 2-3 others who have at this time decided "I gotta get me all these Paul Chadwick pages". They are establishing new high's, good for them. But for the other 1000+ folks who want those pages, the prices the Oligarchs pay for trinkets is far fetched and out of reach. If for any reason those 3 folks decide to call it a day, the price will drop down to where the normal folks play.

 

Besides, if you truly have a passion for collecting something, if it goes to major widely known/accepted auction and you truly care, you will make note and pay attention. You will bid.

 

Again, that is only if they can bid. What if they are bidding on other things and can't bid until those end, which is after your auction? What if they "missed" that one (no one is infallible)? What if it came up when they were lacking funds to really bid (the "normal folks" don't have tons of disposable cash on hand, as you inferred yourself)? What if shilling is going on (something everyone has become much more leary about with some sellers and auction houses of late)? You see, there are factors involved that go beyond just the "Olegs being Olegs." That very instability you noted is why auctions cannot be seen as the authority, case closed, unquestionable standard of FMV. They can be a guide (so long as you don't think they are highly corrupted by shilling and the like), but they can never be the rock solid authority of FMV.

 

 

fair enough :-)

[JadeGiant]

Great thread. I couldn’t agree more with Felix in terms of experience being your best teacher and lessons learned are the tuition that you pay to learn the ropes. I am a cautious spender and this has cost me some items that still really sting when thinking about missing out but I also have not been burned by spending big on impulse buys. My regrets are on a few items I did not buy but I also still love most everything I have which sits well with me as it is easier having a collection of stuff I love and not a lot of impulse buys that I am too far under water to want to sell. I think I am nearing the 10 year mark in the hobby and my habits have changed a lot due to what I have learned along the way.

[staffman]

Great thread. I couldn’t agree more with Felix in terms of experience being your best teacher and lessons learned are the tuition that you pay to learn the ropes. I am a cautious spender and this has cost me some items that still really sting when thinking about missing out but I also have not been burned by spending big on impulse buys. My regrets are on a few items I did not buy but I also still love most everything I have which sits well with me as it is easier having a collection of stuff I love and not a lot of impulse buys that I am too far under water to want to sell. I think I am nearing the 10 year mark in the hobby and my habits have changed a lot due to what I have learned along the way.

 

I'm also on board with Felix as well. I overpaid for a lot of items my first year in this hobby, but I had the money to burn and there is nothing I can do about it. Lesson learned. My taste and desires have changed in the 5 years I've been doing this as well and find myself selling off pieces that do not have the same meaning anymore. I am enjoying the new focus so much better now and I have a good handle on what a fair amount for the items I want go for. I still overpay here and there, but that is my choice to make at the end of the day and as long as I don't go bankrupt and can't feed my family due to my hobby pursuits then I'm doing ok.

 

 

[rrichards]

Some one asked the late Betty Davis if she had any regrets and she answered

"I've never regretted anything that I've done , I only regret the things I didn't do "

[zhamlau]

Where I tend to get burned is on pieces that are excellently done, but have little to no nostalgic value. I've overpaid on beautiful pieces by decent artists on good books, only to find my initial "wow that's nice" assessment wasn't taking into account its a boring nothing book that happened to be good looking. Its like seeing the 9.8 white pages on a bronze age book, but not taking into account its an inventory one issue story done by a fill in artist that had no effect on the book past that issue.

 

The plus side, is I have a lot of pretty pages that look great in my binders...the down side is i paid more for them back 4-5 years ago than they are worth even now , and this is after having been doing this since the off and on since the mid 80s .

 

[staffman]

Where I tend to get burned is on pieces that are excellently done, but have little to no nostalgic value. I've overpaid on beautiful pieces by decent artists on good books, only to find my initial "wow that's nice" assessment wasn't taking into account its a boring nothing book that happened to be good looking. Its like seeing the 9.8 white pages on a bronze age book, but not taking into account its an inventory one issue story done by a fill in artist that had no effect on the book past that issue.

 

The plus side, is I have a lot of pretty pages that look great in my binders...the down side is i paid more for them back 4-5 years ago than they are worth even now , and this is after having been doing this since the off and on since the mid 80s .

 

Yep. Exact same thing I did too. Got caught up in the "wow that's pretty gotta have it now" way too many times that first year or 2.