1:50 Price Command

[RockMyAmadeus]

From my understanding, with something like a 1:50 variant, the store has to order at least 50 copies to get one variant. If they don't think they can sell 50 copies, they won't bother and take a lesser allocation, not getting the variant. If true, the variant should be more rare than a pure 1:50 for a title like Nova.

 

 

True, indeed...but the question I asked was how is the distribution ratio of the incentive is related to the sales number of the regular...?

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

[Immortal Hulk]

. So even disregarding the fallacy of 1:50 actually means you just divide distribution by 50 to get "print numbers"

 

 

 

From my understanding, with something like a 1:50 variant, the store has to order at least 50 copies to get one variant. If they don't think they can sell 50 copies, they won't bother and take a lesser allocation, not getting the variant. If true, the variant should be more rare than a pure 1:50 for a title like Nova.

 

Start here, for one of many on this topic.

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=9437733&fpart=1

 

Thank for that! After reading this though, let's look at the numbers:

 

Using the 1 st scenario, where there are no other variants and we just reflect the addition of the variant itself to the ratio we go from:

 

1:50 = 2%, 2% of 50,300 = 1,006 issues

to

1:51 = ~1.96% = ~ 986 issues

 

When we take into account scenarios with greater impact, the numbers still don't seem to be that significant, 1:10 vs 1:11 is a percent off. Even if you calculate with multiple variant editions and adding them before hand to get the difference, it still doesn't avail to significant changes; when I say significant I mean anything > 5% off.

 

For the sake of brevity and quick approximations it's perfectly fine to use the rounded numbers considering the scope.

 

 

[BatFace-migration]

. So even disregarding the fallacy of 1:50 actually means you just divide distribution by 50 to get "print numbers"

 

 

 

From my understanding, with something like a 1:50 variant, the store has to order at least 50 copies to get one variant. If they don't think they can sell 50 copies, they won't bother and take a lesser allocation, not getting the variant. If true, the variant should be more rare than a pure 1:50 for a title like Nova.

 

Start here, for one of many on this topic.

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=9437733&fpart=1

 

Thank for that! After reading this though, let's look at the numbers:

 

Using the 1 st scenario, where there are no other variants and we just reflect the addition of the variant itself to the ratio we go from:

 

1:50 = 2%, 2% of 50,300 = 1,006 issues

to

1:51 = ~1.96% = ~ 986 issues

 

When we take into account scenarios with greater impact, the numbers still don't seem to be that significant, 1:10 vs 1:11 is a percent off. Even if you calculate with multiple variant editions and adding them before hand to get the difference, it still doesn't avail to significant changes; when I say significant I mean anything > 5% off.

 

For the sake of brevity and quick approximations it's perfectly fine to use the rounded numbers considering the scope.

 

 

I'm not sure you understand. The comic companies make no promises as to how many of each variant is printed. Just because a comic sells 50,000 copies and they offer a 1:100 cover that doesn't mean there are only 500 copies. There could be 1,000 copies, or 1,500 copies or 2,000 copies of that 1:100 variant. Who knows? We don't. DC can print as many copies as they like, as the 1:100 ratio is a distribution number not a print run number.

[BatFace-migration]

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=8842115&fpart=6

[1950's war comics]

yet another 1:50 variant ? might just as well collect stamps from Micronesia

[BlowUpTheMoon]

yet another 1:50 variant ? might just as well collect stamps from Micronesia

 

lol

[Doktor]

Wow.

 

First... buy your own GPA. Seriously.

 

Second, that book didn't approach anything close to 500k units. That's Star Wars #1 or any book with a Loot Crate variant territory. If you're talking about the most recent volume of Nova, then it had a distribution of ~27k. Like 1/20th of what you said. So even disregarding the fallacy of 1:50 actually means you just divide distribution by 50 to get "print numbers", it would be like 540, not 10K

 

And the previous volume of Nova had a distribution of about 45k for #2.

 

It's this simple: it's more rare than the regular one... probably. But nobody knows by how much.

 

But to answer if it's worth $350, I would say no. But then again, I don't care about nova. There's nothing special about the book except for a different cover. It's not super sought after. But people can ask whatever they want. I wouldn't even pay 1/2 of that for a 1:50 of a book that I love, but I'm cheap.

 

Thanks for that insightful answer. So according to Comichron, the 2013 Nova #2 distribution in N.A. by Diamond is 50,300.

 

So since it's a fallacy according to your reply to apply the 1:50 ratio to 50,300 to get an approximation, what expression would you use?

 

Lastly from experience are you recommending gpaanalysis?

 

Bonus: What is the book that you love... I'm curious!

 

 

Nova #2 - 2013 series - 46,725 units

 

Also, on the fallacy of print run for variants: the 1:50 is only the orderable ratio at release. There's no limit no the number of copies that might have been printed. Publishers can print as many or few as they'd like as long as they can satisfy initial orders. They might print more of the ratio variant than they did of the regular cover if they felt like it. After week 1 though? All the rest of the copies that didn't get ordered initially are fair game. They can sell them, give them away, turn them into wallpaper. Doesn't matter. So estimating based on distribution of the book is just a fools errand.

 

Additionally, even if distribution was an indicator, the math would be include knowing how many total ratio variant levels there were, what those ratios were, and then applying a formula of X + 0.1X + 0.07X + 0.05X + 0.04X +0.02X etc = total distribution using the appropriate units. X being the number of normal copies. 0.1X being 1:10 variants. 0.07X being 1:15 variants and so on. That's the way you'd math it out because that total distribution includes all of the ratio variants too.

 

As an exercise, I'll use a 10k total distribution with 1:10, 1:25 and 1:50 variants.

 

X + 0.1X + 0.04X + 0.02X = 10,000

 

X = 8,620 regular copies.

862 1:10

345 1:25

172 1:50

9,999 total accounted for copies.

 

Yes, GPA is useful. Yes, I've been a subscriber on and off as needed for the past few years.

 

Bonus: Book I currently love? None that I'm currently totally loving but a few that I really enjoy. Not enough to name-drop here though. Previous books I've loved? Most of the X-Men titles. The Authority. Wildcats Version 3.0 and Planetary. Plus Ellis-era StormWatch.

 

*EDIT* - fixed the link. Had the 2015 series link initially.

[Noodlez]

 

 

Lmao...

[Immortal Hulk]

Nova #2 - 2013 series - 46,725 units

 

Also, on the fallacy of print run for variants: the 1:50 is only the orderable ratio at release. There's no limit no the number of copies that might have been printed. Publishers can print as many or few as they'd like as long as they can satisfy initial orders. They might print more of the ratio variant than they did of the regular cover if they felt like it. After week 1 though? All the rest of the copies that didn't get ordered initially are fair game. They can sell them, give them away, turn them into wallpaper. Doesn't matter. So estimating based on distribution of the book is just a fools errand.

 

Additionally, even if distribution was an indicator, the math would be include knowing how many total ratio variant levels there were, what those ratios were, and then applying a formula of X + 0.1X + 0.07X + 0.05X + 0.04X +0.02X etc = total distribution using the appropriate units. X being the number of normal copies. 0.1X being 1:10 variants. 0.07X being 1:15 variants and so on. That's the way you'd math it out because that total distribution includes all of the ratio variants too.

 

As an exercise, I'll use a 10k total distribution with 1:10, 1:25 and 1:50 variants.

 

X + 0.1X + 0.04X + 0.02X = 10,000

 

X = 8,620 regular copies.

862 1:10

345 1:25

172 1:50

9,999 total accounted for copies.

 

Yes, GPA is useful. Yes, I've been a subscriber on and off as needed for the past few years.

 

Bonus: Book I currently love? None that I'm currently totally loving but a few that I really enjoy. Not enough to name-drop here though. Previous books I've loved? Most of the X-Men titles. The Authority. Wildcats Version 3.0 and Planetary. Plus Ellis-era StormWatch.

 

*EDIT* - fixed the link. Had the 2015 series link initially.

 

Thanks! I will def. check out gpaanalysis, sounds like a great tool.

 

I'm trying to underestand more clearly this part though:

"the 1:50 is only the orderable ratio at release. There's no limit no the number of copies that might have been printed. Publishers can print as many or few as they'd like as long as they can satisfy initial orders. They might print more of the ratio variant than they did of the regular cover if they felt like it."

 

So are you saying they must satisfy at minimum the 1:50 on release but can choose at their discretion to print more than that ratio? Is there evidence of this happening or did I understand that wrong?

[Immortal Hulk]

Nova #2 - 2013 series - 46,725 units

 

Also I was using this figure, wouldn't this be more accurate?:

Nova #2 - 2013 series for the year - 50,300 units

[thunsicker]

Let me just say it might be worth spending the $10.95 if you are thinking of dropping $350 on a comic.

[chrisco37]

Let me just say it might be worth spending the $10.95 if you are thinking of dropping $350 on a comic.

 

Yeah, definitely. If the book in question is the Campbell cover there aren't very many recorded sales.

 

 

Last sale 2014 - for significantly less than tree-fiddy

 

[Doktor]

Thanks! I will def. check out gpaanalysis, sounds like a great tool.

 

I'm trying to underestand more clearly this part though:

"the 1:50 is only the orderable ratio at release. There's no limit no the number of copies that might have been printed. Publishers can print as many or few as they'd like as long as they can satisfy initial orders. They might print more of the ratio variant than they did of the regular cover if they felt like it."

 

So are you saying they must satisfy at minimum the 1:50 on release but can choose at their discretion to print more than that ratio? Is there evidence of this happening or did I understand that wrong?

 

You don't misunderstand. The publishers only HAVE to print enough to meet their orders. They do not (and actually won't even comment on the topic,as the "1:50 must mean it's 50x rarer than the regular & more valuable" logic pushes the secondary market prices, and while publishers don't have any direct interest in it, the secondary market prices that are determined by this false belief directly compels retailers to make sure they reach those order quotas to qualify in order to sell at a significant markup & THAT spurs direct market order increases. Thus perpetuating a cycle based on a false narrative but the end result is higher sales for the publishers, which is all they care about) have any obligation to limit their printing to just that number. It's why Diamond often has blow-out sales, months after initial release, of ratio variants direct to retailers without any order obligations. If they only printed to-order (which the equation I posted before would imply), they wouldn't have any inventory to blow-out. THey'd have a handful of books at most after replacing damaged stock or whatever, and that's not enough to do blow-out price offering to all retailers.

 

There is only circumstantial evidence of any of this. But add in printers that often require printing to the next complete case (which may hundreds of more copies than the ordered numbers) and any other reason. Hell, printers may require a minimum of 500 copies or 1000 copies or 5000 copies for each cover. That's all something we're in the dark with, since we don't know the details of each publisher's contract with the publishers.

 

Add that all together and it's a virtual guarantee that that 170-something number that I got for a 10k distributed title is almost assured to be printed in significantly greater numbers than what is initially distributed.

 

As for your total, your number is for TOTAL copies, which includes re-orders for stores that under-ordered & placed re-orders. As far as I'm aware, ratio variants are only orderable under the 1:X allocation terms during the initial ordering period, and that's what my number reflected. Re-orders, i don't believe you're allowed to qualify for additional ratio variants. You can only re-order the regular cover. But I MAY be wrong on this detail. You would need to check with a retailer that's places reorders in significant quantity for books that had ratio variants on the initial order.

 

[Jaydogrules]

To the OP: The short answers are: Yes, the Comichron figures represent distribution numbers and not print numbers.

 

Yes, the variant distribution numbers can therefore be reasonably divined from the numbers on Comichron once you balance the typical overages (see below), and larger shops that will get multiple copies with the fact that many shops will not order enough copies of a given book to qualify and many times books are damaged at press and/or during shipment.

 

No, the numbers on Comichron are not "print numbers".

 

No, publishers do not routinely over print or over order books from the printers that retailers have not ordered "just because".

 

Yes, they are generally required to order up to the nearest case (typically 150-250 copies per case), and they also usually order 10-15% overages to account for damages, courtesy copies , etc. They have also been known to "over print" for "event books".

 

But the latter is the exception , not the rule.

 

-J.

[BatFace-migration]

To the OP: The short answers are: Yes, the Comichron figures represent distribution numbers and not print numbers.

 

Yes, the variant distribution numbers can therefore be reasonably divined from the numbers on Comichron once you balance the typical overages (see below), and larger shops that will get multiple copies with the fact that many shops will not order enough copies of a given book to qualify and many times books are damaged at press and/or during shipment.

 

No, the numbers on Comichron are not "print numbers".

 

No, publishers do not routinely over print or over order books from the printers that retailers have not ordered "just because".

 

Yes, they are generally required to order up to the nearest case (typically 150-250 copies per case), and they also usually order 10-15% overages to account for damages, courtesy copies , etc. They have also been known to "over print" for "event books".

 

But the latter is the exception , not the rule.

 

-J.

 

It's nice to see you accept some things you cannot change. Good for you!

[G.A.tor]

To the OP: The short answers are: Yes, the Comichron figures represent distribution numbers and not print numbers.

 

Yes, the variant distribution numbers can therefore be reasonably divined from the numbers on Comichron once you balance the typical overages (see below), and larger shops that will get multiple copies with the fact that many shops will not order enough copies of a given book to qualify and many times books are damaged at press and/or during shipment.

 

No, the numbers on Comichron are not "print numbers".

 

No, publishers do not routinely over print or over order books from the printers that retailers have not ordered "just because".

 

Yes, they are generally required to order up to the nearest case (typically 150-250 copies per case), and they also usually order 10-15% overages to account for damages, courtesy copies , etc. They have also been known to "over print" for "event books".

 

But the latter is the exception , not the rule.

 

-J.

 

It's nice to see you accept some things you cannot change. Good for you!

 

Diamond typically orders 3% above orders for damages/shortages. Not 10-15% generally

[Jaydogrules]

To the OP: The short answers are: Yes, the Comichron figures represent distribution numbers and not print numbers.

 

Yes, the variant distribution numbers can therefore be reasonably divined from the numbers on Comichron once you balance the typical overages (see below), and larger shops that will get multiple copies with the fact that many shops will not order enough copies of a given book to qualify and many times books are damaged at press and/or during shipment.

 

No, the numbers on Comichron are not "print numbers".

 

No, publishers do not routinely over print or over order books from the printers that retailers have not ordered "just because".

 

Yes, they are generally required to order up to the nearest case (typically 150-250 copies per case), and they also usually order 10-15% overages to account for damages, courtesy copies , etc. They have also been known to "over print" for "event books".

 

But the latter is the exception , not the rule.

 

-J.

 

It's nice to see you accept some things you cannot change. Good for you!

 

Diamond typically orders 3% above orders for damages/shortages. Not 10-15% generally

 

 

-J.

[G.A.tor]

To the OP: The short answers are: Yes, the Comichron figures represent distribution numbers and not print numbers.

 

Yes, the variant distribution numbers can therefore be reasonably divined from the numbers on Comichron once you balance the typical overages (see below), and larger shops that will get multiple copies with the fact that many shops will not order enough copies of a given book to qualify and many times books are damaged at press and/or during shipment.

 

No, the numbers on Comichron are not "print numbers".

 

No, publishers do not routinely over print or over order books from the printers that retailers have not ordered "just because".

 

Yes, they are generally required to order up to the nearest case (typically 150-250 copies per case), and they also usually order 10-15% overages to account for damages, courtesy copies , etc. They have also been known to "over print" for "event books".

 

But the latter is the exception , not the rule.

 

-J.

 

It's nice to see you accept some things you cannot change. Good for you!

 

Diamond typically orders 3% above orders for damages/shortages. Not 10-15% generally

 

 

-J.

 

Some titles they will also order for stock , 3-5% for post release reorders

[Jaydogrules]

To the OP: The short answers are: Yes, the Comichron figures represent distribution numbers and not print numbers.

 

Yes, the variant distribution numbers can therefore be reasonably divined from the numbers on Comichron once you balance the typical overages (see below), and larger shops that will get multiple copies with the fact that many shops will not order enough copies of a given book to qualify and many times books are damaged at press and/or during shipment.

 

No, the numbers on Comichron are not "print numbers".

 

No, publishers do not routinely over print or over order books from the printers that retailers have not ordered "just because".

 

Yes, they are generally required to order up to the nearest case (typically 150-250 copies per case), and they also usually order 10-15% overages to account for damages, courtesy copies , etc. They have also been known to "over print" for "event books".

 

But the latter is the exception , not the rule.

 

-J.

 

It's nice to see you accept some things you cannot change. Good for you!

 

Diamond typically orders 3% above orders for damages/shortages. Not 10-15% generally

 

 

-J.

 

Some titles they will also order for stock , 3-5% for post release reorders

 

 

Interesting. So if I'm reading you correctly (please let me know if I am not), the typical gap between a book's distribution number and print number is 3-5% max on a typical release.

 

-J.