What would it REALLY take for the Comic OA market to 'Correct?'

[Ironmandrd]

Who is to say that 75k for a Sal Buscema Avengers cover is a good deal or not ? Certainly not me. Although the future will assign whether that was a bargain or a rip off.

 

FYI--that Sal Buscema Avengers cover did not sell at $76k (so no one following the auction thought it was a good deal at that price).

 

My example was just a hypothetical

 

That said - There are indeed actual examples that have sold north of 75k

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/sal-buscema-and-sam-grainger-avengers-72-cover-original-art-marvel-1970-/a/7097-92053.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

Understood--making sure it was clear because for people unfamiliar with it, they might take that as an actual sale. And yes we are all familiar with the $89k Sal B Av cover (or "outlier" as I and most of my fellow Av collectors refer to it).

[Peter G]

Who is to say that 75k for a Sal Buscema Avengers cover is a good deal or not ? Certainly not me. Although the future will assign whether that was a bargain or a rip off.

 

FYI--that Sal Buscema Avengers cover did not sell at $76k (so no one following the auction thought it was a good deal at that price).

 

My example was just a hypothetical

 

That said - There are indeed actual examples that have sold north of 75k

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/sal-buscema-and-sam-grainger-avengers-72-cover-original-art-marvel-1970-/a/7097-92053.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

Understood--making sure it was clear because for people unfamiliar with it, they might take that as an actual sale. And yes we are all familiar with the $89k Sal B Av cover (or "outlier" as I and most of my fellow Av collectors refer to it).

 

Didn't the Avengers cover you were referencing (the # 91?) get as high as 65k with actual bidding before HA announced the reserve ?

 

Understood that 65k isnt a sale but still interesting info regardless.

 

Only time will tell the FMV on Sal Buscema Avengers covers. I would admittedly want more data points to draw any conclusion at this point.

[SquareChaos]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

 

As I previously said, I'm new, and I still have a great deal to learn, but I'd have to disagree. Because of that disagreement, I'd suggest that we simply have different views on reasonable / responsible hobby spending. And that's perfectly fine, it's all subjective.

 

Most likely, unless I fall unexpectedly into a giant pile of cash, I'll just play on the edges of this hobby and spend a few thousand dollars here and there.

 

Friendly disagreement is never a problem for me. As you said, its all subjective. And besides, its not like I don't see your perspective, I disagree with it but I do see the other side.

 

I think maybe your use of the word "hobby" underlies the difference in our opinion. I see comic books and OA as big business. Mind you, I don't necessarily think that is the best perspective for the health of the hobby. It would be nicer if we lived in a kinder and gentler world where everything wasn't always about dollars and cents. But it just seems that isn't the way us humans are hard wired.

 

It just takes a few bad apples to make it all about money. And before you know it, thats all everybody is talking about.

 

 

 

 

For sure, I am enjoying the conversation.

 

And for what it's worth, I agree, it is big business. But I don't approach it on that axis on a personal level. I see many people that get into the comics and think they can turn it into a career (and some do) but that isn't what I want for myself. I have a job, I don't want to suck the joy out of collecting and I know that is what would happen if I went that route.

 

Finally, while I do believe the big business angle is necessary, I believe we need healthy hobbyists involvement as well, and that is the angle I'm speaking from when I talk of expense and a high barrier to entry.

[ThothAmon]

For a real correction to occur the Fed will have to stop enabling profligate deficit spending by our Government. If it's any consolation all your other assets will be worth less too. At least you will have something pretty to look at!

[JadeGiant]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

 

As I previously said, I'm new, and I still have a great deal to learn, but I'd have to disagree. Because of that disagreement, I'd suggest that we simply have different views on reasonable / responsible hobby spending. And that's perfectly fine, it's all subjective.

 

Most likely, unless I fall unexpectedly into a giant pile of cash, I'll just play on the edges of this hobby and spend a few thousand dollars here and there.

 

I don’t think that this is really a disagreement here (but disagreement in a civil manner which this has been is totally fine) but more of a difference in perspective. If you are spending a few thousand here and there, you are in the hobby from my perspective. If you feel you need to spend several multiples of that amount each year to be in the hobby than I can see your point as that would be cost prohibitive for me as well. People buying at the 89K Sal cover level are not the market as a whole, they represent the upper tier(s), the 1%er crowd IMO.

[Peter G]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

 

As I previously said, I'm new, and I still have a great deal to learn, but I'd have to disagree. Because of that disagreement, I'd suggest that we simply have different views on reasonable / responsible hobby spending. And that's perfectly fine, it's all subjective.

 

Most likely, unless I fall unexpectedly into a giant pile of cash, I'll just play on the edges of this hobby and spend a few thousand dollars here and there.

 

Friendly disagreement is never a problem for me. As you said, its all subjective. And besides, its not like I don't see your perspective, I disagree with it but I do see the other side.

 

I think maybe your use of the word "hobby" underlies the difference in our opinion. I see comic books and OA as big business. Mind you, I don't necessarily think that is the best perspective for the health of the hobby. It would be nicer if we lived in a kinder and gentler world where everything wasn't always about dollars and cents. But it just seems that isn't the way us humans are hard wired.

 

It just takes a few bad apples to make it all about money. And before you know it, thats all everybody is talking about.

 

 

 

 

For sure, I am enjoying the conversation.

 

And for what it's worth, I agree, it is big business. But I don't approach it on that axis on a personal level. I see many people that get into the comics and think they can turn it into a career (and some do) but that isn't what I want for myself. I have a job, I don't want to suck the joy out of collecting and I know that is what would happen if I went that route.

 

Finally, while I do believe the big business angle is necessary, I believe we need healthy hobbyists involvement as well, and that is the angle I'm speaking from when I talk of expense and a high barrier to entry.

 

Enjoying the conversation too. I think we are mostly in agreement on a personal level. Sounds like we are just maybe disagreeing on the forecasting aspect based on what it means to have "healthy hobbyist involvement" for the long term health of the hobby.

 

From my perspective, as long as there is no fraud involved, then free markets should be allowed to operate and participants allowed to make individual decisions as to what is a bargain or what is overpriced.

 

Markets will correct if enough people close their wallets because prices get too high or when the economy falls apart or a combination thereof.

 

[Peter G]

For a real correction to occur the Fed will have to stop enabling profligate deficit spending by our Government.

 

+ 1

 

I think that is where we are at.

 

OA is in part an inflation hedge to preserve wealth and this economic backdrop is a component of that decision making process. Certainly when spending 6 figures on a piece of art, these considerations enter into the picture. It is more than just a hobby at that point when dropping that kind of money,

 

In fairness, I think comic books had this mentality first. Certainly nobody was spending all that money on comic books just to look at them. There was ALWAYS an investment component based on inflation expectations throughout the 80's, 90s and aughts when collecting comic books.

 

OA is just catching up to that line of thinking.

 

Anyways, thats how i see it.

 

 

 

 

[Ironmandrd]

Who is to say that 75k for a Sal Buscema Avengers cover is a good deal or not ? Certainly not me. Although the future will assign whether that was a bargain or a rip off.

 

FYI--that Sal Buscema Avengers cover did not sell at $76k (so no one following the auction thought it was a good deal at that price).

 

My example was just a hypothetical

 

That said - There are indeed actual examples that have sold north of 75k

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/sal-buscema-and-sam-grainger-avengers-72-cover-original-art-marvel-1970-/a/7097-92053.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

Understood--making sure it was clear because for people unfamiliar with it, they might take that as an actual sale. And yes we are all familiar with the $89k Sal B Av cover (or "outlier" as I and most of my fellow Av collectors refer to it).

 

Didn't the Avengers cover you were referencing (the # 91?) get as high as 65k with actual bidding before HA announced the reserve ?

 

Understood that 65k isnt a sale but still interesting info regardless.

 

Only time will tell the FMV on Sal Buscema Avengers covers. I would admittedly want more data points to draw any conclusion at this point.

 

No it did not hit that. It was at $44,215 (including BP) at 7pm local time when the reserve was instituted.

 

 

[Peter G]

Who is to say that 75k for a Sal Buscema Avengers cover is a good deal or not ? Certainly not me. Although the future will assign whether that was a bargain or a rip off.

 

FYI--that Sal Buscema Avengers cover did not sell at $76k (so no one following the auction thought it was a good deal at that price).

 

My example was just a hypothetical

 

That said - There are indeed actual examples that have sold north of 75k

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/sal-buscema-and-sam-grainger-avengers-72-cover-original-art-marvel-1970-/a/7097-92053.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

Understood--making sure it was clear because for people unfamiliar with it, they might take that as an actual sale. And yes we are all familiar with the $89k Sal B Av cover (or "outlier" as I and most of my fellow Av collectors refer to it).

 

Didn't the Avengers cover you were referencing (the # 91?) get as high as 65k with actual bidding before HA announced the reserve ?

 

Understood that 65k isnt a sale but still interesting info regardless.

 

Only time will tell the FMV on Sal Buscema Avengers covers. I would admittedly want more data points to draw any conclusion at this point.

 

No it did not hit that. It was at $44,215 (including BP) at 7pm local time when the reserve was instituted.

 

 

 

Thanks for the clarification

 

 

[SquareChaos]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

 

As I previously said, I'm new, and I still have a great deal to learn, but I'd have to disagree. Because of that disagreement, I'd suggest that we simply have different views on reasonable / responsible hobby spending. And that's perfectly fine, it's all subjective.

 

Most likely, unless I fall unexpectedly into a giant pile of cash, I'll just play on the edges of this hobby and spend a few thousand dollars here and there.

 

I don’t think that this is really a disagreement here (but disagreement in a civil manner which this has been is totally fine) but more of a difference in perspective. If you are spending a few thousand here and there, you are in the hobby from my perspective. If you feel you need to spend several multiples of that amount each year to be in the hobby than I can see your point as that would be cost prohibitive for me as well. People buying at the 89K Sal cover level are not the market as a whole, they represent the upper tier(s), the 1%er crowd IMO.

 

That's a very valid point.

 

I guess there is a divide between feeling involved and actually being involved. At my level of spending I don't feel engaged enough to dive in to this as my primary hobby, and my gut feeling is the cost for me to become that engaged is far out of reach. Does that make any sense? If nothing else I now better understand exactly how I feel about the hobby.

[JadeGiant]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

 

As I previously said, I'm new, and I still have a great deal to learn, but I'd have to disagree. Because of that disagreement, I'd suggest that we simply have different views on reasonable / responsible hobby spending. And that's perfectly fine, it's all subjective.

 

Most likely, unless I fall unexpectedly into a giant pile of cash, I'll just play on the edges of this hobby and spend a few thousand dollars here and there.

 

I don’t think that this is really a disagreement here (but disagreement in a civil manner which this has been is totally fine) but more of a difference in perspective. If you are spending a few thousand here and there, you are in the hobby from my perspective. If you feel you need to spend several multiples of that amount each year to be in the hobby than I can see your point as that would be cost prohibitive for me as well. People buying at the 89K Sal cover level are not the market as a whole, they represent the upper tier(s), the 1%er crowd IMO.

 

That's a very valid point.

 

I guess there is a divide between feeling involved and actually being involved. At my level of spending I don't feel engaged enough to dive in to this as my primary hobby, and my gut feeling is the cost for me to become that engaged is far out of reach. Does that make any sense? If nothing else I now better understand exactly how I feel about the hobby.

 

That makes total sense to me. If you can't really scratch the itch at the lower level ... your decision is a wise one. For me, I get great satisfaction within my current spending parameters. To be honest, I bought a Sal splash this year at fraction of the Avengers cover cost and it scratches the itch much more than the cover ever could.

[staffman]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high. For some sure, but my experience has been that the vast majority of people enter the hobby with a toe-in-the-water approach and move upward from there. As such, entry is actually easy as there are all kinds of price points available to feed the addiction. Nostalgia is a key part of the formula for me entering the hobby but I was able to scratch that itch through commissions and cheaper pages when I started. I didn’t feel like I needed the cover to my favorite issues on day one (and still don’t). I bought in low and worked up to nice panel pages, splashes, and covers, etc. I think that this is the general way it works for most people. And I didn’t sell anything to fund art purchases. I did curtail other spending to shift toward art but my collection has been built via cash purchases – I buy according to the fun money I have available. I am 10 years in the hobby and just recently started considering/planning to sell off some items for larger purchases. So, my collection may get a boost going forward from some sell-offs but it was built on cash (no credit) purchases. That is the standard I have to put on myself to keep the hobby a hobby and still fun. Note: I am not at the deep end of the pool and not spending vehicle/mortgage type amounts on pages so I won’t be moving the meter on the high end of the market.

 

I feel the same way you do. When I first started this, I was just getting commissions. Even though they weren't covers or high tier artists at first, I felt like I was in the game. I went from spending less than a $100 on a few pieces, then I graduated to $300, then to $500 and finally I jumped to the 4 figure section and moved away from almost all commissions and finally jumped in head first into nostalgia driven pieces from my youth. I've yet to break that 5 figure wall, but if there is a piece that I have always had my eye on then I know I'll find a way to get it. (That may cause my wife some concern though ) In fact, most of my collecting right now is being supported by selling off a lot of my commissioned pieces along with anything that doesn't hit that sweet spot from my younger years. If I entered the hobby today like I did 5 years ago, I would find that I would still go into it even if I did it the same way again. I can understand it being tricky/hard to justify the money, but there are so many different ways to get to at least something you want in this hobby that I don't see it chasing people away if they really want to join in on this. But at the end of the day, it's my money I'm spending so I'm the only one who has to justify what I'm putting it towards, so instead of that nice BMW, I'd rather have the artwork.

[alxjhnsn]

FWIW, here's a chart of generations that I think is reasonable. In my experience, Millennials will have a harder time than I (late Baby Boomer) and my peers.

[comix4fun]

Where does this leave me? This leaves me purchasing modern original art (yes, including Manhattan Projects!) and obtaining commissions.

 

It also leaves you in some fairly exclusive company!

 

 

 

 

What's that thing Albert's doing with his face? I don't know if I've see that before.

 

You mean smile?!

 

 

[The-Collector]

Gene you don't see those 40-60 year old collectors being replaced by a new generation?

 

The short answer is no. But, it's a little more nuanced than that, so I'll try to dissect the argument down into various parts.

 

First, will there be a new generation? Yes. Will that new generation have the aggregate numbers, interest and financial resources to clear the market at ever-escalating prices? I think this is the one of the surest bets you can possibly make, bordering on metaphysical certainty: no.

 

Aggregate numbers and interests: Yes, there will be new collectors. No, there will not be enough to replace the existing collector base in either comics or comic art. Why do I say that? Because several things happened in the mid-to-late 1990s. First, the comics industry imploded (too much product, too low quality, too many better alternatives). Comic shops closed by the hundreds. We lost the next generation. Second, technology disrupted traditional media and entertainment. Post-1995, the next generation's interests became splintered in a nearly infinite # of different directions. Even without the industry implosion, people would have gravitated towards other things, just as they have done with all traditional media (look at what has happened to newspaper and magazine circulations, network TV ratings, etc. in the age of infinite entertainment options).

 

And, no, you can't just look at the aggregate revenues from the comic industry (which have been on an upward rebound in recent years) - much of that is due to speculation (hundreds of variant covers, reboots, crossovers, etc.) and higher unit (cover) prices. The vast majority of books out there have circulations that would have been cancellation levels in another era.

 

Aggregate financial resources: There's virtually zero chance that the next generation will have the financial resources to take out Gen X's collections at ever-escalating prices. First, that generation is, very plainly, not going to be better off financially than we are. Second, as I said on the Felix Comic Art podcast, most Gen Xers couldn't even buy back their own collections at current inflated prices (with the benefit of having made more money and riding the appreciation of art bought cheap) - the next generation has no chance of doing either. NONE.

 

Remember what this means mathematically. Virtually every piece of comic art out there will change ownership at least once over the next 30 years. Right now, high prices are maintained (and getting higher) because Gen X is still a net buyer as a cohort, and so sales are only occurring at the margin for the most part. However, when Gen X becomes a net seller, and new money has to take out these collectors en masse at ever-escalating prices...I'm sorry, there is only one way for the market to clear, and that is for prices to fall. Now, that can happen in different ways. Prices might fall across the board. Or, maybe the very best of the best stays elevated while the second and third tier stuff falls by the wayside. But, what's considered the best of the best and most desirable to the next generation will undoubtedly surprise people. IMO, for example, I think the Millennials will have very little interest in things like Cosmic Starlin or Frank Frazetta; I would expect mainstream Silver Age hero art to hold up relatively better from an interest standpoint.

 

 

I was chomping at the bit to argue with you. But I can't find much to object to in that explanation.

 

I guess my only bone to pick would be regarding the conversion ratio you discuss in some other posts. I think that unless we stop being corporeal beings it is largely irrelevant that the gateway is tv and movies rather than comic books. Historical significance will encourage conversion and hence collecting. As for key pieces of art it will always be the case that comics are the source from which these popular characters first came. For that reason alone they will remain desirable.

[SquareChaos]

I have never met an OA collector pulled in from television and movies, but I understand that doesn't mean they're not there. It's a bit like the oft misunderstood and overemphasized Fermi paradox but... where are they? Are any reading this thread? Do people that believe this just think it's too soon yet? If we can find one or two of these people, how do you differentiate them from exceptions to the competing rule?

 

[Claudio]

I think JamesJ has said in the past that he got into collecting OA because of The Walking Dead. That's about the only person I know.

[Mmehdy]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

[Silver Surfer]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

[Peter G]

Deep recession , inflation will stop oa prices dead in there tracks and reverse a lot of the gains.

 

True but it will stop everything else in its tracks which is why governments will try and do everything they can to avoid high rates. They just can't afford it and it won't keep politicians in elected office very long if they let rates run.

 

 

All markets are going to eventually have to clear. It is going to be quite a messy spectacle.