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MCU's DEADPOOL 3 starring Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman (2024)
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Started by Bosco685,

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Bosco685

Bosco685

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On 2/23/2024 at 3:24 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

I really think it will do a billion. If I am wrong I am wrong. Love the first 2 DeadPool movies. Well, got to go guys. My girl is dragging me out the door for shopping. Adios bros. Take care dudes. 

Have a super Friday and weekend

:cheers:

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drotto

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On 2/23/2024 at 3:24 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

I really think it will do a billion. If I am wrong I am wrong. Love the first 2 DeadPool movies. Well, got to go guys. My girl is dragging me out the door for shopping. Adios bros. Take care dudes. 

My gut says it will fall just short.  Neither of the previous two movies hit $1B, and it is still rated R, which generally hurts box office. Guardians 3 had a lot of hype and goodwill but still performed right in line with the other two films. Remember the MCU tag is becoming a drag not a plus, so this is going to take good word of mouth to even have a shot. My uneducated gut says around $900M.  Still great box office.  Also the production budget is way up on this movie, so the actual profits margins will be lower.

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Buzzetta

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On 2/23/2024 at 3:20 PM, Bosco685 said:

I think the MCU trend of "everything must be One Billion Dollars" needs to go away as it sets a false expectation moving forward "One Billion Or Bust". Save that for the trolls that ride this message.

GotG Vol. 3 even with a downturn in CBM expectations hit 3.4X production budget. Though that was lower than GotG Vol. 2.

image.thumb.png.c76252d327dda1c54a41c7d653427018.png

If Deadpool 3 breaks $800M it is exceeding the prequels trend. Though that ballpark on the production budget will be telling as well.

image.thumb.png.34f64cac0fd8ad1fa304275ee2c95b88.png

 

So you share my estimation prediction?

I agree, the $1B or bust idea is not a good measure of success.   I am taking a small break from Oppenheimer at the second hour.   Lighthouse is coming along. 

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Bosco685

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On 2/23/2024 at 6:18 PM, Buzzetta said:

So you share my estimation prediction?

I agree, the $1B or bust idea is not a good measure of success.   I am taking a small break from Oppenheimer at the second hour.   Lighthouse is coming along. 

I do. The MCU set a precedent that then became a set expectation. Which is most probably why the independent and smaller productions complained how studios were ignoring them because if a film didn't have a chance to hit that mark, they potentially would be delayed or ignored.

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Bosco685

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Deadpool 3 Budget Revealed: It’s Reportedly Mammoth $250 Million

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Seeing the MCU’s declining trend, Walt Disney Studios has now included “Deadpool” in the MCU and is hoping that ‘Deadpool 3’ will make a huge splash for Disney in the superhero world, which is ready to hit theaters on July 26, 2024. According to a close source of production, Walt Disney Studios’ threequel ‘Deadpool 3’ is going to be one of the most expensive superhero films, with a production budget of around $250 million before prints and advertising costs.

 

Notable is that these numbers are not the final figures, as the film is currently in the post-production phase. However, these are the numbers that Walt Disney Studios has decided to allocate for the film— the pre-production estimates. Although the production costs reflect the same numbers even after the film’s release, there is a possibility that the final figures may be slightly higher. The high budget of ‘Deadpool 3’ may surprise many followers because the budgets of the first two films were relatively low. But if you follow Walt Disney, you probably know that productions have always been known for overspending.

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The production has already spent hundreds of millions on average films and shows, including the $275 million budget for ‘The Marvels,’ $225 million for ‘She-Hulk,’ $212 million for ‘Secret Invasion,’ $250 million for ‘Thor: Love and Thunder,’ and $200 million for ‘Quantumania.’ Therefore, spending a considerable amount on ‘Deadpool 3,’ which is an important film, is not a special or surprising occurrence.

 

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drotto

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On 2/24/2024 at 6:30 AM, Bosco685 said:

Deadpool 3 Budget Revealed: It’s Reportedly Mammoth $250 Million

 

Which unfortunately means from a profit standpoint, this movie has a much larger hurdle.  I am also sure the marketing budget has ballooned. 

D1 was 58 million budget and made $782. With a 2.8 multiplier for profit $168 m was in the black

D2 was reported around $110 budget and $785 box office. Now $308 was making money. 

D3 with a $250m budget needs about $700M to make money.  Even if it reaches $1B the profit will still be less then the first two movies.

If this does not illustrate what Disney is doing wrong with their budgets nothing else will, and it proves that Disney is the one guilty of exploding budgets. They are spending so much to make films that the 1B box office almost becomes a necessity to justify the production and marketing costs. Also the performance of the first two films does seem to indicate around a 850 to 900M box office if you consider inflation and if actual ticket sales to remain similar (thr actual ticket sales being a massive issue lately).

Disney really seems all in almost last ditch effort on this film to partially reignite the MCU, and even to use it as a soft reboot if needed. What I fear is this is going to play out more like Guardians 3 where it was viewed as the last in a trilogy, almost a legacy film, rather than a new jumping on point.

 

 

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Buzzetta

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On 2/23/2024 at 3:14 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Nice really cool stuff. PS . You will love Oppenheimer. Saw it three times now. 

 I really liked Oppenheimer.  Nolan is of a dying breed of directors where his name alone sells a movie and it lives up to the hype. 

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Buzzetta

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On 2/24/2024 at 11:05 AM, drotto said:

 

Disney really seems all in almost last ditch effort on this film to partially reignite the MCU, and even to use it as a soft reboot if needed. What I fear is this is going to play out more like Guardians 3 where it was viewed as the last in a trilogy, almost a legacy film, rather than a new jumping on point.

 

 

There is a difference.

Guardians WAS the last in a trilogy with only Groot and Rocket most likely to appear again down the road since "anyone" can assume the voices for those characters.   Star Lord was a pleasant surprise that he would return.

Daredevil is being marketed as an event where it's more of an introduction to new things.  Deadpool is joining the MCU.  There is a very different feeling about this movie.   Now, if they were not marketing that it was Daredevil joining the ranks of the Disney Marvel universe and it was another stand alone Deadpool movie, then it is likely that I would not even bother with the film.

The ambition is high on this film but it does seem to warrant it. 

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media_junkie

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I think this movie will do very well, I mean you have the one two punch of Reynolds and Jackman.  Now in saying that I personally think a billion might be pushing it.  Dune and Deadpool are honestly the only 2 films I am excited about this year, so I am really hope that both of them do well.

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The humble Watcher lurking

The humble Watcher lurking

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On 2/24/2024 at 1:47 PM, Buzzetta said:

There is a difference.

Guardians WAS the last in a trilogy with only Groot and Rocket most likely to appear again down the road since "anyone" can assume the voices for those characters.   Star Lord was a pleasant surprise that he would return.

Daredevil is being marketed as an event where it's more of an introduction to new things.  Deadpool is joining the MCU.  There is a very different feeling about this movie.   Now, if they were not marketing that it was Daredevil joining the ranks of the Disney Marvel universe and it was another stand alone Deadpool movie, then it is likely that I would not even bother with the film.

The ambition is high on this film but it does seem to warrant it. 

1 billion or bust. Ha ha. 

Edited by The humble Watcher lurking
Spelling. I said bust for some reason at first spell check wanted just. Lol
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The humble Watcher lurking

The humble Watcher lurking

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On 2/25/2024 at 8:38 AM, TupennyConan said:

I predict it will gross less than the other two.

I'll see it if I'm wrong.

On 2/25/2024 at 8:38 AM, TupennyConan said:

 

 

On 2/25/2024 at 8:38 AM, TupennyConan said:

I predict it will gross less than the other two.

I'll see it if I'm wrong.

 

On 2/25/2024 at 8:28 AM, media_junkie said:

I think this movie will do very well, I mean you have the one two punch of Reynolds and Jackman.  Now in saying that I personally think a billion might be pushing it.  Dune and Deadpool are honestly the only 2 films I am excited about this year, so I am really hope that both of them do well.

It will do very well as this is no longer a Deadpool 3 movie but a Deadpool and Wolverine movie.

ps. @TupennyConan

Sorry for quoting you twice. Having tech glitches on the smartphone. 

Edited by The humble Watcher lurking
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drotto

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On 3/5/2024 at 4:22 PM, media_junkie said:

Honestly I am not concerned about "Deadpool and Wolverine", it is the movies/shows they are making that will be coming out after Deadpool 3 that I would have concerns about.

When Iger said that Disney has quietly killed several projects, I wonder how many were connected to the MCU?

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D84

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On 3/7/2024 at 10:13 AM, drotto said:

When Iger said that Disney has quietly killed several projects, I wonder how many were connected to the MCU?

My guess would be Blade, Iron Heart, etc.

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