Potential Wizard bankruptcy???

[mattn792]

I've been following the stock's performance for the past few years, 2013 to be exact when I realized WW was publicly traded, and really this is no surprise. When your stock price could ride the headwinds of both a booming hobby and overall market environment but instead boldly declares "Nuts to that, we're going down baby!", you know there's trouble in paradise.

 

In my small corner of the universe, which we'll call Chicago, there was a massive difference in quality between this year's C2E2 and WW. C2E2 was its usual wonderful self, packed with COMIC vendors and buyers. Plus the celeb autograph area and artist alley were very spacious and well organized.

 

Conversely, WW was a mess of kids playing dress-up with noticeably less comic vendors/buyers (at least that was my perspective, work took up a lot of my time). And the celeb area was a disaster -- way too small, poorly laid out, and freakin' cold! I give the staff credit for keeping it as organized as they did. I'm not saying I didn't still enjoy WW, but the atmosphere was MUCH different.

 

It's pretty clear that WW has overextended itself. The bleedingcool article lays out several money losing ventures they've taken on, and the shows are too frequent or poorly timed (WW Philly and AwesomeCon were on the same weekend last year for example). I'd venture a guess that cost cutting moves like axing 2017's Des Moines, Madison, and Albuquerque shows are already on the table for them.

 

Add in the infighting and the sweetheart deals to insiders (who agrees to a lease with a term of 5 years and 3 months and then prepays 200 stacks in rent?), and the near term certainly looks bleak. It would be a shame to see a big con promoter go by the wayside, but if WW can't get their act together, I'm sure someone else will step in to fill the void.

[VintageComics]

I'm sure someone else will step in to fill the void.

 

It's happening. There are board members and other promoters building grass roots shows slowly from the ground up in many cities across the country.

 

And to be fair, the show circuit is a lot more competitive than it used to be.

 

Just a few short years ago, you could say that there may have been a weekend without a major show.

 

Now you have multiple shows on every weekend.

 

Competition means you either put out a solid product or you get left behind.

 

 

[mattn792]

I'm sure someone else will step in to fill the void.

 

It's happening. There are board members and other promoters building grass roots shows slowly from the ground up in many cities across the country.

 

And to be fair, the show circuit is a lot more competitive than it used to be.

 

Just a few short years ago, you could say that there may have been a weekend without a major show.

 

Now you have multiple shows on every weekend.

 

Competition means you either put out a solid product or you get left behind.

 

 

Word. And this weekend will mark my first foray to the Chicago Pop Culture Expo (conveniently located far outside of Chicago in St. Charles, yet still holding enough juice to score a Larry Hama appearance), so I'm very interested to see the duality of small vs. large show.

[eewwnuk]

the guest list for that pop culture expo :( :(

[blazingbob]

Business model isn't sustainable?

 

Most of Wizard's loss was generated from Con TV which was the previous CEO's idea.

 

Wizard is guilty of "going first" in many sub-markets and pricing them like they were major cities. I, Dale and a few other dealers have always said that markets should have tiered pricing but that went in one ear and out the other.

 

Guarantees to get celebrities is the cost of doing business. Informa and Reed are using the same model.

 

Competing shows never works for anyone but I can't speak for the ego's that run the company.

 

Wizard and frankly all of the major shows have opened up competition for dealers with their table and ticket pricing.

 

Am I going to attend a regional show where the table cost is lower and hope that I make a profit or do a major show where I have a customer base that will come to the show?

 

Sure, those "Grass root" promoters are building shows but my travel/hotel expenses are the same whichever show I do. And taking a flyer on a "regional show" with the hope of doing the same numbers is not something I'm willing to do.

 

Frankly most of the new shows are 1/maybe 2 day shows trying to be a 3 day event. The same amount of money is in the room whether it is a 1, 2, or 3 day event.

 

The customers complaining that they can't find anything never seem to email me before the show asking for the books they want to see. Promoters are putting up websites, my schedule is up for an entire year and yet I am still meeting customers asking for books that are home.

 

Amazing that some of the critics are guys who don't setup and ask for free badges. Basically doing business as dealers and yet don't support the show. Now you may argue that you spending money at my booth is "supporting the show" but still it is money out of the promoters pockets and competition to the guys who paid for a booth. You may be a "customer" but still are "in for free".

 

People complaining that if Wizard fails somebody else will step in. Not sure if I want under-captialized regional promoters taking up the slack.

 

 

 

 

[VintageComics]

If it matters any, I wasn't criticizing as much as I was just parroting what others seem to have to say, as well as coupling it with my observations.

 

You do agree that major shows have gotten extremely expensive to set up at for the average Joe.

 

Am I going to attend a regional show where the table cost is lower and hope that I make a profit or do a major show where I have a customer base that will come to the show?

 

The customers complaining that they can't find anything never seem to email me before the show asking for the books they want to see. Promoters are putting up websites, my schedule is up for an entire year and yet I am still meeting customers asking for books that are home.

 

You're the exception rather than the rule though.

 

IO agree that the smart move would be to contact the dealers coming for books that I might have an interest in but most dealers aren't as organized or structured as you and I'd argue that most buyers aren't that organized either. They just expect to 'find what they find'.

 

 

 

 

[mattn792]

the guest list for that pop culture expo :( :(

 

Haha, yeah outside of Hama its a who's who of B list and local Chicago personalities. Mostly I'm hoping there's at least some good shopping to be had.

[blazingbob]

"IO agree that the smart move would be to contact the dealers coming for books that I might have an interest in but most dealers aren't as organized or structured as you and I'd argue that most buyers aren't that organized either. They just expect to 'find what they find'."

 

And yet the dealers who complain "Vote with their feet" and the customers who post on threads claiming "There was nothing to buy" never talk to the promoters who run the shows.

 

When I am met by promoters/saleman coming to competing shows asking why I don't do their shows anymore they are told "I don't make any money doing your show". Shelton Drum is ONE example. Heroes Con is a great show, the boardies love this show. Fact is I've had declining year over year sales for a number of years. The last time I did the show I did $2500 in retail. If it wasn't for dealers the show was the worst I've ever had there. Is it great to have a lot of dealers in one room? It is if the "Collector economy" in that room can support them. If they can't then somebody is making money and somebody isn't. Price points, stock, room in your inventory all factor into having a good show.

 

Change requires people to do something other then posting on a chat boards throwing words to the heavens that the show is too expensive, doesn't have what they are looking for etc.

 

I can fault Wizard for a lot of things but at least when I talk to Peter Katz and the CEO I am listened to. Doesn't mean I get what I want but at least I ask and talk to somebody who can do something. What they chose to do with the information I give them is another story.

 

The same can be said of the grading companies. There is a lot of good information from the vendors who setup and sell your product. Whether they chose to use that resource is their choice.

 

 

[revat]

One of the things I noticed was just the over proliferation of shows, especially into smaller markets, and inopportune times of the year in some cases (though I assume it was cheaper). It seemed like they were willing to take losses on those to squeeze out the competition or corner a market. It seems to parallel what Starbucks was originally doing, even to the point of cannibalizing related shows or markets in some cases.

 

But Starbucks is something you can get everyday or everyweek or see on every corner, the loyalty and recognition seeps into you. Most people go to 1 WW per year, and there's no good reason to have loyalty as a customer or dealer, whether its convenience, cost, or whatever. People will just attend whatever show is put in front of them (excluding national dealers).

 

It feels like they were counting on loyalty and market monopolies, but there just aren't many barriers to entries anymore. They went wider instead of deeper, and that was a grave miscalculation.

 

 

[crazyhips]

The Pittsburgh Con didn't look enticing at all. The local Steel City Con attracts bigger celebs.

[blazingbob]

Frankly if I were working for Wizard or any promoter for that matter I would have a large map on the wall.

 

Basically draw circles with a maximum mileage I can expect to draw from in the markets I want to capture with the dates.

 

I would have pins showing any competing shows.

 

I would have the financial demographics of the area I am promoting in because that determines my price points, expected revenues. I would run the convention costs to see what my cost verus "expected result" could be. After the show run the numbers and see how they performed.

 

Look at the show variables, how can I market it? Advertising costs, historical advertising expenditures to determine what worked and what didn't.

 

Sometimes you can run the numbers and determine that the show won't work no matter what you do.

 

 

 

[blazingbob]

Steel City doesn't entice me to setup at.

 

The convention center in Pittsburgh was actually one of the nicer halls I've set up in.

 

However, the PA market is very tough to make money in.

 

 

[Mike's Rack]

"Not familiar with any of the others"

 

Which basically makes you an expert on them?

 

 

Bob you have more familiarity than most others. This is not a "is the comic book value bubble bursting question." This is solely a question about the shows.

 

Do you feel that between the various 'major' shows and the 'minor' shows that some markets have reached their saturation point for sustainable comic books shows?

 

I can't speak for any other markets, but in Arizona, the "comic" con market is saturated. There are three mid size shows (Amazing Arizona, Phoenix Comicon Fanfest and Tucson Comicon) and one large show (Phoenix Comicon). At all four, the booth prices are ever increasing, so I only set up at Phoenix Comicon. I've been much more successful buying at the other shows and taking a stack of books to sell/trade to dealers. I think the "comic" market can support the one large show, the other shows are supported by the pop culture market if they are turning a profit at all.

[revat]

Frankly if I were working for Wizard or any promoter for that matter I would have a large map on the wall.

 

Basically draw circles with a maximum mileage I can expect to draw from in the markets I want to capture with the dates.

 

I would have pins showing any competing shows.

 

I would have the financial demographics of the area I am promoting in because that determines my price points, expected revenues. I would run the convention costs to see what my cost verus "expected result" could be. After the show run the numbers and see how they performed.

 

Look at the show variables, how can I market it? Advertising costs, historical advertising expenditures to determine what worked and what didn't.

 

Sometimes you can run the numbers and determine that the show won't work no matter what you do.

 

 

 

Agree, you'd THINK they would be doing that! But they either haven't done that or have done it wrong. And I don't they get the concept of 'destination' cities. People might drive from Minneapolis to Chicago in the spring time, but they aren't driving from Milwaukee to Madison in February. And just because people might drive from Pittsburgh to Philly for a show doesn't mean MORE people will drive from Philly to Pittsburgh, so you sure as hell can't charge the same to dealers and customers.

 

Same applies to having WW in Sacramento vs San Francisco. SF people aren't driving to Sac, even if the convention hall in Sac is much cheaper.

 

 

[GACollectibles]

Dammit Bob, you've got the makings of a good Rant & Rave. About time you posted a new one on your site.

[CBT]

I thought they went out of business in the 90s

 

+1

[blazingbob]

I would like to throw out the "Financial profile" of what I see at Conventions as far as "Buyers" go.

 

These numbers are after admission costs.

 

The $100 buyer. Am I seeing this buyer at my booth? Very rarely and they are generally looking at low grade, may buy one book. A lot of these buyers are the ones who ask "I'm just curious, how much is the AF #15?"

 

The $300 buyer - $300 buyers come with lists. Am looking for the most bang for the buck. Are generally afraid to buy something on the first day so they spend that day scouting out where to come back to. Wants to buy $1000 books but always pops out the wife will kill me. This is always the giveaway that they are not the $1000 buyer. People who pop out when I win the lottery drops them into the $100 camp.

 

The $1000 buyer - Wants to buy a key but is limited by the budget. Negotiates your lowest price and whips out the credit card.

 

The $3000 buyer - This used to be the cap of the low grade keys buyers. A lot of these buyers have the bank envelope of $100's in the jacket pocket.

 

The $10K + buyer - The few and far between. Generally takes a few looks but when they buy it is all business. Dealers can be your $10K buyer for the show so think about that check before you dismiss them.

 

The souvenier buyer - More and more of these at shows. Looking for something to get signed by a creator, buying a theme book or just find comics cool so they buy something. Not exactly the buyer who is in this for the long haul.

 

The social day out - This buyer has a poster, a big mug of unlimited root beer or a regular drink if alcohol is being served at the show. Cosplayers fall into this category. The event where Halloween is all year round.

 

 

[jimjum12]

Frankly if I were working for Wizard or any promoter for that matter I would have a large map on the wall.

 

Basically draw circles with a maximum mileage I can expect to draw from in the markets I want to capture with the dates.

 

I would have pins showing any competing shows.

 

I would have the financial demographics of the area I am promoting in because that determines my price points, expected revenues. I would run the convention costs to see what my cost verus "expected result" could be. After the show run the numbers and see how they performed.

 

Look at the show variables, how can I market it? Advertising costs, historical advertising expenditures to determine what worked and what didn't.

 

Sometimes you can run the numbers and determine that the show won't work no matter what you do.

 

 

 

Agree, you'd THINK they would be doing that! But they either haven't done that or have done it wrong. And I don't they get the concept of 'destination' cities. People might drive from Minneapolis to Chicago in the spring time, but they aren't driving from Milwaukee to Madison in February. And just because people might drive from Pittsburgh to Philly for a show doesn't mean MORE people will drive from Philly to Pittsburgh, so you sure as hell can't charge the same to dealers and customers.

 

Same applies to having WW in Sacramento vs San Francisco. SF people aren't driving to Sac, even if the convention hall in Sac is much cheaper.

 

 

 

[CBT]

maybe they are the bubble canary in the coal mine. If the number of cons starts going down, that will be an interesting movement to watch. A decrease in the total business across the market, will always have an effect

[Red84]

The only big shows I've ever been to are WW Chicago and C2E2. I prefer WW Chicago.