Modern variant values... finding the logic?

[valiantman]

For instance, lets say I ask you to tell me something about... Manhattan Projects #19?

OK, let's try it.

I know nothing about Manhattan Projects #19.

 

I check Comichron.com and it says Manhattan Projects #19 sold 14,813 copies in North America in the first month.

So let's assume there are 18,000 copies total.

 

I see that Manhattan Projects #19 is a $3.50 cover price.

 

Because that's 18,000 times $3.50, I'm working from $63,000 overall pooled value.

 

Though it is from 2014, there are only 15 CGC graded copies.

I assume this means that there is nothing "key" about the issue.

 

I don't see any variants for Manhattan Projects #19, so nothing has shifted the pool relative to regular edition value.

All copies of Manhattan Projects #19 are equal (except for condition), so I would conclude that the average copy is probably still $3.50, though unsold books are often discounted when they're 3 years old.

 

Let's try one with variants, your pick.

[valiantman]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Simple Rules for Dating my ASM #667

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

[SquareChaos]

 

For instance, lets say I ask you to tell me something about... Manhattan Projects #19?

OK, let's try it.

I know nothing about Manhattan Projects #19.

 

I check Comichron.com and it says Manhattan Projects #19 sold 14,813 copies in North America in the first month.

So let's assume there are 18,000 copies total.

 

I see that Manhattan Projects #19 is a $3.50 cover price.

 

Because that's 18,000 times $3.50, I'm working from $63,000 overall pooled value.

 

Though it is from 2014, there are only 15 CGC graded copies.

I assume this means that there is nothing "key" about the issue.

 

I don't see any variants for Manhattan Projects #19, so nothing has shifted the pool relative to regular edition value.

All copies of Manhattan Projects #19 are equal (except for condition), so I would conclude that the average copy is probably still $3.50, though unsold books are often discounted when they're 3 years old.

 

Let's try one with variants, your pick.

 

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

[valiantman]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

[SquareChaos]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

[exitmusicblue]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Simple Rules for Dating my ASM #667

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Anyone who thinks for some reason ASM 667 is a cosmic once-in-a-century convergence of miraculous events and Haley's Comet... is... well........ 'nuff said.

 

They also missed the boat by one issue to be really notorious. ::

[Jaydogrules]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

 

Nah, we've been friends before.

 

-J.

[SquareChaos]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

 

Nah, we've been friends before.

 

-J.

 

 

I mean on this issue.

[valiantman]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

If you have a variant for a comic... and if that variant is the "preferred" version of that comic... the overall pooled value for that comic sees a shift toward the preferred variant.

 

How much shift is dependent upon both the quantity of the variant and the quantity of the regular.

 

Once you shift the overall dollars toward the variant, you can divide by quantity and get a dollar amount for one copy.

 

There is a way to make sense of ASM #667 Dell'Otto variants using the fact that it's just a regular issue of ASM, that the regular issues of #667 only sell for about $4, but the preferred variant only has 29 copies known.

[valiantman]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

[Lethal_Collector]

Interesting thread, VM.

 

As a collector of such comics, there are a few things I consider before I start gunning for a variant, just as an fyi. I don't know if these hold true for other MA collectors but here goes:

 

1) Scarcity, distribution. Is there a general awareness of supply? Whether people agree on the print run numbers doesn't hold a lot of weight, census numbers hold more weight to me, but not a lot of weight.

 

2) Artist. Do I know the artist, do I like what the variant represents? Do I need the variant vs. the 1st print? i.e. Do I want the Niagara Falls variant of ASM #300? No, I'll take the 1st print here, classic McFarlane cover.

 

3) Series popularity, or pop culture. What's the demand for the book, is anyone else interested in it? If so, why? What makes this book so sought after? It's these questions that lead to the best information on a book.

 

4) Price. If there's a book that sounds interesting, I look at it's sales history, go pound the pavement for numbers, look for trends, spot good times to buy. A lot of times I put a book on my list and I try and wait it out to see that the book supports the price. Or, sometimes, admittedly, I've wanted the book for so long, I throw the price out the window and mark it as a 'must have' book (i.e. BP #1 JSC B/W). In that instance, I had to ask myself if I overpay for the book, will I feel burned, have buyers remorse, etc? I said no, because at the time it made sense (didn't know about the 2nd book that sold a week later, ended up paying $1K extra).

 

5) Spend only what I have financially available at the time. If a book pops up for sale, is it so high on my list I'm willing to part with other books to snag this one? Sometimes yet (my ASM 667), sometimes no (Ms. Marvel #2, decided to pass on it, don't believe in the value of it - yet).

 

Just food for thought, may help when you try and apply logic to some of the sales of these kinds of books.

 

 

Jerome

[SquareChaos]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

If you have a variant for a comic... and if that variant is the "preferred" version of that comic... the overall pooled value for that comic sees a shift toward the preferred variant.

 

How much shift is dependent upon both the quantity of the variant and the quantity of the regular.

 

Once you shift the overall dollars toward the variant, you can divide by quantity and get a dollar amount for one copy.

 

There is a way to make sense of ASM #667 Dell'Otto variants using the fact that it's just a regular issue of ASM, that the regular issues of #667 only sell for about $4, but the preferred variant only has 29 copies known.

 

OK, now I follow what you're saying at least. Thank you. That tends to be true (price is a factor of course).

 

But can you say that you can detect this without already knowing the going rates for the variant and regular cover?

[Jaydogrules]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

See point 3 in my post. I compared 9.8 slab value (since we are taking about slabs after all, right?). Bats 608 regular, $60, ASM 667 regular, $40.

 

-J.

[SquareChaos]

I just don't see the use of this if it can't tell you something you don't already know. It just seems like an attempt to justify values that already exist, in which case, what's the point?

[exitmusicblue]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

A $4 regular issue and a $9000 variant... if someone were to make a General poll re: is this stupid vs. awesome, the results won't be close. I may be pushed over the edge to do so. :angel

 

Not to rain on folks I actually like who own the Dell'Otto, heh. Comfy with it being in the low thousands, as I'm sure many owners would be too.

[valiantman]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

If you have a variant for a comic... and if that variant is the "preferred" version of that comic... the overall pooled value for that comic sees a shift toward the preferred variant.

 

How much shift is dependent upon both the quantity of the variant and the quantity of the regular.

 

Once you shift the overall dollars toward the variant, you can divide by quantity and get a dollar amount for one copy.

 

There is a way to make sense of ASM #667 Dell'Otto variants using the fact that it's just a regular issue of ASM, that the regular issues of #667 only sell for about $4, but the preferred variant only has 29 copies known.

 

OK, now I follow what you're saying at least. Thank you. That tends to be true (price is a factor of course).

 

But can you say that you can detect this without already knowing the going rates for the variant and regular cover?

I'm saying that when you know the going rates for the regular cover, you can make a guess about the going rates for the variant based only on its supply.

[Jaydogrules]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

A $4 regular issue and a $9000 variant... if someone were to make a General poll re: is this stupid vs. awesome, the results won't be close. I may be pushed over the edge to do so.

 

Welcome to collecting comic book collecting.

 

Start 100 polls. It won't do anything to affect the value of the ASM 667 either way. It was going for thousands of dollars before you even knew what it was

 

(Just thought I'd put that out there since that appears to be your agenda. )

 

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

If you have a variant for a comic... and if that variant is the "preferred" version of that comic... the overall pooled value for that comic sees a shift toward the preferred variant.

 

How much shift is dependent upon both the quantity of the variant and the quantity of the regular.

 

Once you shift the overall dollars toward the variant, you can divide by quantity and get a dollar amount for one copy.

 

There is a way to make sense of ASM #667 Dell'Otto variants using the fact that it's just a regular issue of ASM, that the regular issues of #667 only sell for about $4, but the preferred variant only has 29 copies known.

 

OK, now I follow what you're saying at least. Thank you. That tends to be true (price is a factor of course).

 

But can you say that you can detect this without already knowing the going rates for the variant and regular cover?

I'm saying that when you know the going rates for the regular cover, you can make a guess about the going rates for the variant based only on its supply.

 

No, you can't.

 

-J.

[valiantman]

I just don't see the use of this if it can't tell you something you don't already know. It just seems like an attempt to justify values that already exist, in which case, what's the point?

Yes!

 

I'm attempting to provide a logical justification for modern variant values.

 

"Because that is how much they sell for" isn't good enough for me. That's weak sauce.

 

Because they shift a portion of the overall value for the issue to the variants, and then divide that portion by the quantity available is slightly more palatable... so it might still be weak sauce, but we have identified parts of the recipe.