The Future of Comic Books 1 1

[VintageComics]

4 minutes ago, Hepcat said:

 

That's why Harley has gotten the lion's share of my comic dollars over the last twenty years. He always shows up, and he shows up with interesting product.

 

Harley is the hardest working guy in comics.

He jumps from continent to continent the way some dealers jump from city to city in a small state.

Australia, Asia, Europe, North America. He's there.

I think the only ones he hasn't sold comics in are Antarctica, Africa and South America and  I actually could be mistaken about Africa and South America.

Edited June 28, 2017 by VintageComics

[Hepcat]

Yes, Harley definitely puts in the effort. And I certainly hope he's rewarded for doing so.

 

 

Edited June 28, 2017 by Hepcat

[Knightsofold]

Both vintage and modern baseball cards are still highly collectible, and a lot of money can be made as well.  As far as big $$ collectibles produced, baseball cards turn over much more $ than comics since 1998+.  They invented the "variant" collectible. 

 

There are tons of modern baseball cards sold each month from $500-5,000+ just on ebay.   Search sold: "auto" in the baseball cards>modern category . https://www.ebay.com/sch/Baseball-Cards/213/i.html?_from=R40&_dcat=213&Era=Modern%20%281981%2DNow%29&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_nkw=auto&_sop=16

 There are less baseball card stores than comic shops now I guess...  But you still have 30k+ people going to each of the 81 games at the stadiums and playing baseball.  These people might start to collect the same way someone watching a comic movie might start to collect.

[october]

5 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

Both vintage and modern baseball cards are still highly collectible, and a lot of money can be made as well.  As far as big $$ collectibles produced, baseball cards turn over much more $ than comics since 1998+.  They invented the "variant" collectible. 

 

There are tons of modern baseball cards sold each month from $500-5,000+ just on ebay.   Search sold: "auto" in the baseball cards>modern category . https://www.ebay.com/sch/Baseball-Cards/213/i.html?_from=R40&_dcat=213&Era=Modern%20%281981%2DNow%29&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_nkw=auto&_sop=16

 There are less baseball card stores than comic shops now I guess...  But you still have 30k+ people going to each of the 81 games at the stadiums and playing baseball.  These people might start to collect the same way someone watching a comic movie might start to collect.

That's a mind-blowing link. 

[1Cool]

20 minutes ago, october said:

That's a mind-blowing link. 

Crazy.  I did the search in sports cards without the auto and there has been 3,397,093 sales in the time frame E-Bay shows.  Changed to all sales under comics and there has been 1,072,411 sales.  Almost 3 times more cards have sold then comics.  Tough to compare prices for each sale in both category but I'm shocked there is that many cards being sold on E-Bay.

[Mercury Man]

But the sport is starting to check into the nursing home.   From marketwatch.com

"Baseball has the oldest viewers of the top major sports, with 50% of its audience 55 or older (up from 41% a decade ago), according to Nielsen ratings. The average age of baseball viewers is 53, compared with 47 for the NFL and 37 for the NBA, according to the ratings. And fewer young people are playing the sport: The number of people between the ages of 7 and 17 playing baseball in the U.S. decreased by 41% from 9 million in 2002 to 5.3 million in 2013."

Your link is both fascinating, and cringe worthy.  Refractor cards remind me of the Modern variant stupidity in comics. Whatever frenzy we see in modern baseball cards online, I don't think will sustain in 20 years, unless baseball fixes its aging problem.   In the year 2050 you are not going to have Millennials or Centennials looking for an Albert Pujols or Mike Trout RC at $15K.  

[Knightsofold]

2 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

Your link is both fascinating, and cringe worthy.  Refractor cards remind me of the Modern variant stupidity in comics. Whatever frenzy we see in modern baseball cards online, I don't think will sustain in 20 years, unless baseball fixes its aging problem.   In the year 2050 you are not going to have Millennials or Centennials looking for an Albert Pujols or Mike Trout RC at $15K.  

As long as there are sports stars collectible companies are ready to profit.  Just take a look at NFL cards.  https://www.ebay.com/sch/Football-Cards/215/i.html?_from=R40&Era=Modern%20%281981%2DNow%29&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_sop=16&_nkw=auto  

 

or sold auto sports cards.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/Sports-Trading-Cards/212/i.html?_from=R40&Era=Modern+(1981-Now)&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_mPrRngCbx=1&_udlo=500&_udhi=99999999&_nkw=auto&_sop=16

 

Baseball interest might be changing, but chase style collecting won't be.   Sports will still be relevant but in 2050 it might be Soccer auto cards that's all the rage.  http://www.totalsportek.com/most-popular-sports/

 

 

 

[marvelmaniac]

There is s shop 5 miles from me that sells both and has been in business as long as I can remember.

I used to frequent them back when I did the monthly trek to all of the LCS's in the area before eBay and the internet became available to me back in 2006 but they are still there selling the same stuff with no signs of slowing down.

http://www-temdee-com.app-hosted.com/

[fmaz]

To be a bit crass here, the baseball market hasn't died... but it's collectors have begun to.  And that's one of the ways that the comic book market (might) differentiate itself and have long term legs.

My son, since the age of six, got really into baseball cards.  So we started going to this local monthly baseball card show.  He's 18 now. (A topic for another post... because that happened WAY too fast!).  Anyway, that show has, in the past 12 years, continued to be very popular and crowded each week.  And the dealers always treated my son so great, especially when he was little.  And even now, although we haven't gone in a year or so... on the odd occasions we show up, he's treated like royalty.

Why? Because aside from him, there are NO OTHER KIDS there.  It's all guys in their 40's, 50's and older.  And while those guys are still passionate about buying and selling cards, the generation above them who used to be are dying and now just trying to sell their cards... and these guys can only buy so many, and the market can only absorb so much.  

I used to talk to the dealers all the time, and they'd deal me that it was getting harder and harder for them to find those great "attic finds" any more... but instead they'd all be bidding on lots at auctions.  And they all feared the day when each of them were looking to really unload all of their stuff... who would buy it if there wasn't a generation behind them?

Baseball is still an insanely popular sport, but fantasy baseball has replaced baseball card collecting for the way that young kids "collect" their favorite players.   Yes, high end cards have and hold value but even those eventually will be at risk when there isn't a market of people who have any connection to cards.  That is what the dealers talk about all the time.

If you think about it, back before  the Silver Age of comics, the big pop culture icons were the western heroes, and/or the radio stars.  People like Roy Rogers, the Lone Ranger or Tom Mix.  I don't really know who Tom Mix is, other than I've heard of a Tom Mix pocket knife.   But I do know his name was plastered over collectibles in his day.. and now I'm sure they're very niche products with limited value.

Comic Book heroes, however, due the movies have gotten a second childhood.  A new generation of kids who are growing up with them on their toys, shirts, fruit snacks, happy meals, etc.   Some of these people are, we know, exploreing their interest in the characters through cos play as they get older.  Some are checking out comic books.  But others are simply big fans of the movies.

As long as the CHARACTERS remain popular and relevant, there will be a market for the comic books... although as someone said earlier, that market might dry up to all but the biggest keys.   But I do know when I go to my LCS the crowd in there features a lot of college age kids... which means that market for comics will remain strong for at least another generation.

[Hepcat]

22 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

Both vintage and modern baseball cards are still highly collectible.... They invented the "variant" collectible. 

 

For which the *^&^*# deserve all the blame that's coming to them.

 

22 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

But you still have 30k+ people going to each of the 81 games at the stadiums and playing baseball.  These people might start to collect the same way someone watching a comic movie might start to collect.

 

I'll grant that a spillover effect can come from baseball game attendees and movie goers to related media. But it's generally the kind that's here one day and gone the next. Quite simply most people lack the hoarding instinct that hard core collectors possess.

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 6/29/2017 at 4:01 PM, Mercury Man said:

Your link is both fascinating, and cringe worthy.  Refractor cards remind me of the Modern variant stupidity in comics. Whatever frenzy we see in modern baseball cards online, I don't think will sustain in 20 years, unless baseball fixes its aging problem.   In the year 2050 you are not going to have Millennials or Centennials looking for an Albert Pujols or Mike Trout RC at $15K.  

That is why I recommended the basketball and football rookie cards over the baseball rookie cards.

Jordan, Brady and LeBron would be much better bets than Trout and Pujols by a mile as rookie card investments.

Baseball although quite popular doesn't have the polarizing stars that the NFL and NBA has.

With refractor cards I agree they are somewhat like variant comic covers,but this is the deal in that the money can be made from them short-term. I don't think anybody is hoarding up on them to cash out in 20 years. 

There is nothing wrong with making money short-term,in fact I prefer to make my money now. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 6/29/2017 at 3:50 PM, 1Cool said:

Crazy.  I did the search in sports cards without the auto and there has been 3,397,093 sales in the time frame E-Bay shows.  Changed to all sales under comics and there has been 1,072,411 sales.  Almost 3 times more cards have sold then comics.  Tough to compare prices for each sale in both category but I'm shocked there is that many cards being sold on E-Bay.

Sports are a huge industry. With sports is they keep getting new stars all the time,so that is how they keep things fresh. 

[Brian48]

Haven't collected cards in almost a decade.  Even then, it was a brief and limited return where I bought a few players. For the most part, I gave up the hobby in the early '90s just before the insane speculator craze took off.  I would agree with what was posted earlier.  Most, with few exceptions, cards from the '80s and '90s are worthless.  Modern cards, like modern comics, are printed in much fewer numbers with key cards being even fewer (low #'d).  These can go for BIG money.  Much more than anything on the comics side.  A 2000 Tom Brady PSA 8 Champion Ticket Contenders sold at Heritage last month for over $20k.  I have the same card (and grade) that I "overpaid" for back in the mid 2000s for $261.  This card is only 17 years old.

I am so tempted to cash in right now.  

 

 

[Knightsofold]

56 minutes ago, Brian48 said:

Haven't collected cards in almost a decade.  Even then, it was a brief and limited return where I bought a few players. For the most part, I gave up the hobby in the early '90s just before the insane speculator craze took off.  I would agree with what was posted earlier.  Most, with few exceptions, cards from the '80s and '90s are worthless.  Modern cards, like modern comics, are printed in much fewer numbers with key cards being even fewer (low #'d).  These can go for BIG money.  Much more than anything on the comics side.  A 2000 Tom Brady PSA 8 Champion Ticket Contenders sold at Heritage last month for over $20k.  I have the same card (and grade) that I "overpaid" for back in the mid 2000s for $261.  This card is only 17 years old.

I am so tempted to cash in right now.  

 

 

I would cash in asap!

Imo the modern cards can fluctuate to insane heights and lows regarding prospects, injurys, and player retirement. 

I got out of it because it ended up feeling too much like gambling to me.

you can get crazy lucky in some of those boxes though..

[Brian48]

32 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

I would cash in asap!

Imo the modern cards can fluctuate to insane heights and lows regarding prospects, injurys, and player retirement. 

I got out of it because it ended up feeling too much like gambling to me.

you can get crazy lucky in some of those boxes though..

Any other player, I'd agree with you.  But this is TB12. His cards have defied logic for the last 10 years.  With the Pats loading up this off season to what is tantamount a juggernaut, there's a very good chance at another SB run next year.  If this happens, I'm expecting this card to surge yet again.  It's a #'d 100 card so there's not a lot of them out there.               

[Philflound]

Every hobby has collectors, no matter what that hobby is. Comic books are hot for the most part because of media such as tv and movies keeping popular characters in your face. Genre and characters that the younger generation (5-25 for the most part) have no interest will eventually die out. There will be much more supply than demand. There may be some collectors from the younger crowd who do get into these areas, but they will have the pick of the litter. War, western, romance, crime will pretty much be free pickins. Horror will probably remain popular and steadily rise. Funny animal is a 50/50 thing. Disney, Looney Tunes, Woody Woodpecker, Tom & Jerry, Scooby and such vintage characters will remain popular as long as cartoons keep showing. Miscellaneous or vintage funny animals will probably not do anything or even decline some in value. 

Toy trains is another area that won't see much collectibility in the future. Most kids don't care about trains at all short of riding one at an amusement park. Train collecting is probably a 40+ if not 50+ age area.

Sports cards are the same because of the fact that today's generations don't know or even care about players before their time.  Even HOF players will have little interest. There may be some interest in purchasing players from favorite teams though. As I'm from NJ by Manhattan, I love the Yankees, Giants, and Rangers. Lost interest in the Knicks.

Having collections of anything passed down to younger generations as the original owners pass will probably yield 25% keeping it (if that high) and everyone else selling them.

New comics I can't see having much of a future as we're in the same boat as the 1990s. Too many variations and high cover prices will limit what a collector can purchase. Money only goes so far. Is there even any money left over for back issues? Right now signatures are the hot thing. Most people are willing to pay to have their items signed. I don't know how much of an aftermarket mark up there is though. I remember going to shows a few years ago seeing graded comics (people would grade anything, sometimes still do) sitting in $5 or less boxes because of little interest.

Anyway, if you're older, you may not see a total crash happen in your lifetime. We don't know what the future holds especially with all the new technology coming out. Online comics are junk in my opinion and to me are just to read. I don't find it fun, but more convenient that I don't have to handle my own collectible comic and risk damage. It's not the same. I read books. I don't have a tablet to read on. I play my vintage video games, not emulators on my computer. There is something about the original form that cannot be replaced.

[Mercury Man]

19 minutes ago, Philflound said:

Toy trains is another area that won't see much collectibility in the future. Most kids don't care about trains at all short of riding one at an amusement park. Train collecting is probably a 40+ if not 50+ age area.

Great episode on 'American Pickers' about this.  Essentially they went to an old, closed upm toy train store.  A huge place full of old trains. The owners son (the owner has since passed on), was liquidating, he said kids just don't collect trains, and the adults that did, are dying off. 

I think Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle (at least his rookie) cards will continue to do well.  But is a mid 1960's Sandy Koufax or Willie Mays going to command a few hundred dollars like it used to?  Stan Musial was a great player, is somebody born in 1999 going to be saving up hundreds of dollars for one of his early cards?  Or will they taper off.  Me-thinks so. 

[Philflound]

Actually I was going to mention Michael Jordan. If it wasn't for sneakers, I don't think 99% of kids under 20 would know his name, or just maybe know his name. I think of the 1992 Olympic Dream Team. How many of those players would 20 or less kids interested in basketball actually know anything about besides maybe Jordan?

[FN-2199]

On ‎6‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 11:35 PM, Philflound said:

Actually I was going to mention Michael Jordan. If it wasn't for sneakers, I don't think 99% of kids under 20 would know his name, or just maybe know his name. I think of the 1992 Olympic Dream Team. How many of those players would 20 or less kids interested in basketball actually know anything about besides maybe Jordan?

Charles Barkley is a YouTube sensation. Him and Shaq going at it sets social media on fire.

[ninanina]

On ‎6‎/‎27‎/‎2017 at 2:03 PM, joe_collector said:

I was just waiting for a "blame the victim" comment to appear.

I will remind you from my above post, that these are all 15-17 year old kids who have literally never been to a Con before, religiously checked the website and Facebook pages before going, and all had $50-$100 in spending money on them.

One girl went over to get an auto from some co-star on Riverdale and it was $125-$150 a pop, which is absolutely outlandish and kinda heartbreaking if you think about it.

Both the sports memorabilia business as well as the people doing signatures for comic collectibles were hearing about how much fans were selling their signatures. Fans were standing in line and getting a multitude of items signed, and then stood in line again to get more. Then went on e-bay to cash in. The talents in the industry reacted to this by now charging for their signatures. I'm under the belief that the fans cashing in on signatures is what caused these individuals to start charging. The fans ( not all  mind you)  did it to themselves. Still, $125 - $150 is a bit eccentric.

 

Also, I remember a decade ago we were discussing  a similar thread about the future of comic books . This was either before the movies started or just as they were about to begin. I had mentioned historically in that same thread that when I looked at the history of collecting, there was always some kind of trigger that kick started the market after a lapse. The hobby always seemed to survive in some fashion. I believe the last two triggers were CGC and then soon after the movies starting churning out our heroes. I also remember it was said that Super Hero movies wouldn't last either. Perhaps the last hurrah for these would be a DC/Marvel crossover...maybe in a decade or two?