The "Newsstand Edition" Phenomenon Part 2 0

[Qalyar]

Just now, valiantman said:

Absolutely, but we should make it known that 10% for Spawn #1 newsstand is a reasonable estimate based on data - and those who are still clinging to some 1% newsstand claims on Spawn #1 are no longer informing, they're misinforming.

Spawn #9 newsstand has been split out by CGC since March 2013.  Since March 2013, CGC has graded 3,405 copies of Spawn #9 (universal grades), with 8% newsstand.  For over 500 Signature Series, it's 7% newsstand on Spawn #9.

Spawn #9 wasn't an event like Spawn #1, but the 10% newsstand estimate for Spawn #1 holds up pretty well against the 7%-8% newsstand CGC census counts for Spawn #9.

And, for what its worth, I think 10% is a fairly good ballpark for that period of Spawn books. It gets a lot trickier when you try to jump to a different series, publisher, or time period. Sometimes even knowing what was distributed to newsstands is a battle.

[valiantman]

3 minutes ago, Qalyar said:

And, for what its worth, I think 10% is a fairly good ballpark for that period of Spawn books. It gets a lot trickier when you try to jump to a different series, publisher, or time period. Sometimes even knowing what was distributed to newsstands is a battle.

That's true, but I think we put too much emphasis on what happened in the first few months and too little emphasis on what has happened in the three or four decades since.

[Qalyar]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

That's true, but I think we put too much emphasis on what happened in the first few months and too little emphasis on what has happened in the three or four decades since.

Oh, I meant that in terms of issues, not copies. I agree that estimates of raw distribution numbers aren't of much value unless they also account for attrition patterns.

[Mr. N]

12 hours ago, valiantman said:

@Qalyar that's a good point, but we're now 25+ years since anything printed before 1996 - so if those 1980s-1990s books still aren't "worth CGC-ing" at this point, whether due to condition, contents, value, whatever, then the market needle isn't moved by those particular issues in those grades. The exact ratios of lower grade raw copies of direct and newsstand books that may exist in comic shop back rooms or collector boxes just don't matter (yet)... since those books have already have been ignored for 25+ years before anyone cared about newsstand or direct edition designations.  

When comparing direct editions to newsstand editions in 2021, it's helpful to first ask "does anyone care about either?" and a good way to answer that question is to check the CGC Census (even if it doesn't separate direct edition and newsstand) total.  Once books are "worth CGC-ing" and the CGC Census reflects more than a few copies have been CGC graded, we can look to the open market for what's available and get our direct/newsstand ratio estimate data from there.

One good example would be Spawn #1 (1992).  Obviously, it's a good idea to CGC grade raw Spawn #1 with a good chance of being CGC 9.8 whether it's newsstand or direct.  Looking at GPAnalysis for the whole year of 2020, there were 805 sales (GPAnalysis.com) for universal CGC 9.8 Spawn #1 direct edition and 71 for universal CGC 9.8 Spawn #1 newsstand.  That's 8% newsstand.  That 8% could be too low for the overall rate of newsstand for Spawn #1, since 9.8 is a high grade that is generally believed to be harder to obtain 25+ years later in newsstand than it was in direct editions.  The past 90 days (March-May 2021) have 253 CGC 9.8 sales with 5% newsstand.  Again, this is likely too low for the overall newsstand rate because 9.8 is a tougher grade.

We also have to be careful not to skew the results in the other direction when books are "worth CGC-ing" (by value) in lower newsstand grades but the lower grade direct editions are not. 

When you move down one grade to CGC 9.6 Spawn #1, there were 338 CGC 9.2 Spawn #1 direct edition sales in 2020, and 74 CGC 9.2 Spawn #1 newsstand sales in 2020.  That's 18% newsstand.  This is also likely a skewed result because there's not as much financial incentive to CGC grade a 9.6 raw Spawn #1 direct edition when sellers only got $68 average for CGC 9.6 Spawn #1 direct editions in 2020.  There was more incentive to submit 9.6 raw Spawn #1 newsstands, since the CGC 9.6 Spawn #1 newsstand average sale price was $179 in 2020.  18% is likely too high for the overall newsstand ratio.  In the past 90 days (March-May 2021) CGC 9.6 Spawn #1 direct edition has averaged $123, making Spawn #1 direct editions much more "worth CGC-ing" in 2021 than they were in 2020 averaging $68.  Of the 132 CGC 9.6 Spawn #1 sales March-May 2021, just 11% have been newsstand.  As the value of both rises, the newsstand ratio falls, now 11% newsstand in the 9.6 market.  That could still be too many newsstands overall, since the CGC 9.6 newsstands have averaged $360 (nearly three times as valuable as 9.6 direct editions) in the same timeframes.

Using the CGC 9.8 and CGC 9.6 numbers for Spawn #1 would suggest that 5%-8% newsstand is too low (using 9.8) and 11%-18% newsstand might be too high (using 9.6).  A fair estimate overall then would probably be 10% for Spawn #1 newsstand, based on more than 1,500 sales in 2020-2021 for CGC 9.6 and CGC 9.8 of both newsstands and direct editions. 

This 10% estimate is quite different from the 1%-2% newsstand rate that is sometimes quoted by various websites/sources for Spawn #1, or even 5% for that matter.

10% newsstand on Spawn #1 fits the data better, and when we have even more data in the future, perhaps we'll know even more. 

Well put. I've not thought of comparing those variables in that matter before. Nice job.

[paqart]

I started collecting newsstands because it seemed like a way to pay for the comics I really wanted; bronze and silver age Marvels and DCs and Carl Barks duck comics from the 1940's-1950's. However, as I bought the newsstands, I started noticing how hard it was to find certain issues and became obsessed with getting them as collectibles on their own. The hunt was as much fun as it was frustrating. In the end, I bought 2514 newsstand comics over the last 12 months or so. By year, they break down as follows:
present-2010 (Rarest): 283

2009-1999 (Rare): 953

1998-1990 (Uncommon): 274

1989-1979 (Common): 381

1978-all previous years (All comics): 530

The reason the rare category cuts off at 1999 instead of 2000 is that the rarity of comics from 1999 (or market availability) seems more similar to comics published in 2000 than 1998. I also included comics before 1979 because my database counts all comics printed before 1979 as newsstands even if they have no separate collectability for that reason.

I noticed that some publishers are easier to find than others as newsstand editions.

Archie: Common (1:3 comics listed for sale on eBay)

Dark Horse: Uncommon (1:8 comics listed for sale on eBay)

DC: Uncommon (1:30 comics listed on eBay)

Marvel: Rare (1:50 comics listed on eBay)

Image: Rare (1:50 comics listed on eBay)

Valiant: Very rare (I've never seen one of these on eBay. I only have one Valiant NS, bought from an LCS)

For awhile, I tried buying only key newsstands, like X-Men# 260 and ASM V2 #36. However, that was too easy because some key issues tended to be much easier to find than others. For that reason, I started drifting to comics that were just hard to find, regardless what they were. For instance, try to find a newsstand edition of any of the Jonah Hex issues with Darwyn Cooke covers. I still haven't seen any of them but did manage to score one JH in newsstand recently, even if it wasn't one of the group I am targeting.

At the moment, I am most interested in high grade Valiants, Marvels in the 1999-2009 time period, and DCs from 2008-2017. The Marvels either get more common from 2010-2013, or the issues become less interesting to me as comics because of all the new titles and mini series.

The comics I am most interested in finding now don't appear for sale more often than once every three months. Some I have never seen offered for sale, others took a year before I found my first copy. A small subset of this group appears infrequently but regularly at high prices, like ASM #601. I'd like to get a copy but so far, of the eight or so copies I've seen, either the condition was too low (7.5 or less) or they were too expensive for me.

All of this is leading up to something I learned when I went to my first comic con in two years yesterday, the Terifficon in Connecticut. First, I might have more modern newsstands than all the dealers at that show put together. I found exactly zero newsstands from the groups I am most avidly looking for. The newsstands I did see were mostly from the 1980's. Prices for newsstands showed a significant premium, roughly 2x-3x. In one case, it was 5x (I forget the comic offhand but it was $400 for the direct version, $2,000 for the newsstand--might have been a Thor 337, not sure about that though).

When I spoke to some of the dealers about it, many seemed rueful they hadn't known about actual market availability of newsstands. They either hadn't thought of them as collectible until recently, or thought they were more common than they were.

In the end, I only bought three comics: a Canadian edition of the 1950 Dell comic Vacation Parade #1, a very nice copy of Captain Marvel #26, and a direct edition Daredevil 159 with a strike through UPC box. Everything else I saw was disappointing because I didn't see much printed before 1980 that would grade higher than a 7.0. One dealer had such comics labeled 9.2 or 9.4 but I don't think there was any chance they would grade that high. I hope the next con brings out better comics. 

Edited August 2, 2021 by paqart

[Dmac538]

I picked up a ton of Newsstands this weekend at Terricficon this week, a lot of them were keys. Most of the issue were pressable high grade candidates, not just Marvel, DC as well. Will try to post pics tomorrow, to tired from show.

[BigLeagueCHEW]

What is the data on golden age newsstands? 

[Dmac538]

Pick ups from Terrificon 

 

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 8/2/2021 at 11:18 AM, Dmac538 said:

Pick ups from Terrificon 

 

part of me wants to ask if these were wall books?

Part of me wants to imagine they were found in a box diving situation.

Part of it is that, especially ASM #344, are difficult newsstands, and 

Part of me wants to jump, jump up, and get down  that there are con's period, jump around!  

[Dmac538]

On 8/2/2021 at 12:26 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

part of me wants to ask if these were wall books?

Part of me wants to imagine they were found in a box diving situation.

Part of it is that, especially ASM #344, are difficult newsstands, and 

Part of me wants to jump, jump up, and get down  that there are con's period, jump around!  

Every book was box diving from the same dealer!

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 8/2/2021 at 11:38 AM, Dmac538 said:

Every book was box diving from the same dealer!

 man that makes it look easy  and it is NOT haha

I'm in Dallas, and still hoping for a con 6 weeks away, so far so good  but .... I just don't know  

[valiantman]

On 8/2/2021 at 9:01 AM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

What is the data on golden age newsstands? 

I'm not sure what you're asking.  The Golden Age is 100% newsstands.  There was no direct market until the 1970s.

[paqart]

On 8/2/2021 at 9:56 AM, Dmac538 said:

I picked up a ton of Newsstands this weekend at Terricficon this week, a lot of them were keys. Most of the issue were pressable high grade candidates, not just Marvel, DC as well. Will try to post pics tomorrow, to tired from show.

Will look forward to seeing them. I should admit that I wasn't looking super carefully because my main purpose in going there was to show my portfolio and pick up an assignment (which I got). After that, I was mainly looking at the walls behind the dealers instead of doing a careful comb through of their boxes. I was tempted, but with my portfolio to lug around, didn't want to add a box of comics to that. 

[paqart]

On 8/2/2021 at 12:18 PM, Dmac538 said:

Pick ups from Terrificon 

 

Now that I see what you got, I did see these but I rarely buy newsstands from this time period unless they are Canadian or super special for some reason. I don't collect them for anything other than rarity, and they aren't that hard to find until 1999 and later. After that, they get spectacularly hard to find. The Mazzuchelli Batmans are great comics btw.

Edited August 2, 2021 by paqart

[paqart]

On 8/2/2021 at 10:01 AM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

What is the data on golden age newsstands? 

Just in case you're asking this because of the golden age Donald Duck I posted, all comics from that time period are newsstand but it has the added distinction of being a Canadian edition. Modern Canadians are both Newsstand and Canadian but they were printed alongside direct editions, making them separately collectible.

[paqart]

On 8/2/2021 at 12:40 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

 man that makes it look easy  and it is NOT haha

I'm in Dallas, and still hoping for a con 6 weeks away, so far so good  but .... I just don't know  

I'm going to my second con of the month at the end of August, as an invited guest for a change. Hopefully I'll have my current project done before I get there. Here are the first few pages, for those who might be curious.

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 8/2/2021 at 9:44 AM, valiantman said:

I'm not sure what you're asking.  The Golden Age is 100% newsstands.  There was no direct market until the 1970s.

It was a joke,  

Not to be taken serious.

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 8/2/2021 at 10:20 AM, paqart said:

Just in case you're asking this because of the golden age Donald Duck I posted, all comics from that time period are newsstand but it has the added distinction of being a Canadian edition. Modern Canadians are both Newsstand and Canadian but they were printed alongside direct editions, making them separately collectible.

It was more of a joke, but thanks for the additional info, interesting 

[Lazyboy]

On 8/2/2021 at 11:44 AM, valiantman said:

I'm not sure what you're asking.  The Golden Age is 100% newsstands.  There was no direct market until the 1970s.

Nope. Promo books exist. But the vast majority of GA was distributed through the newsstand system.