BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD) 4 4

[Georgie123]

saw it liked it MCU keep it up we love the fact that they keep on using traditional marvel comic characters  and our comic values keep going up. Very happy

[drotto]

1 hour ago, paperheart said:

‘Black Widow’ Posts Best Non-Holiday Monday During Pandemic At Domestic B.O., Second Weekend Eyed At $24M+

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-monday-box-office-second-weekend-1234792134/

If accurate (seems unlikely), this would be the biggest 2nd weekend drop of any MCU movie:

This is what I was expecting.  Built up demand from MCU fan boys, and some devoted movie goers just excited to have a film to watch, but perhaps not sustainable. This movie is looking sub $200 million domestic.   This may have nothing to do with the film itself, and more to do with Covid and a new movie normal, but it is looking like the reality. 

 

This will be interesting to see how it impacts the remainder of this year's films, and the industry going forward.

[D84]

18 minutes ago, Georgie123 said:

saw it liked it MCU keep it up we love the fact that they keep on using traditional marvel comic characters  and our comic values keep going up. Very happy

So, you seem more excited about the comic values than the movie itself.

[Gatsby77]

Worth reading - analysis of the reported $60M in Disney+ receipts.

https://trib.al/wY5oovM?fbclid=IwAR0uRNXCQKW1btwtNig06OPKxkfNvBBirqS3b6jpgNqH3A41SGiaMsjC-Y0
 

My takeaways:

- good point re. no disclosure re. what % of Disney+ Premier sales were global v domestic

- Whether Disney will continue to disclose such numbers going forward - if not, the projects presumably tanked. Next up? Jungle Cruise, July 30.

[bentbryan]

Taskmasters identity was so freaking weak. Other than that it was a fun watch. Nice to be back in the theater! 

[Bosco685]

Quote

Speaking to Yahoo! Finance, Rich Greenfield of LightShed Partners warned that Black Widow's success proves that studios like Disney "don't need the theaters as much as they used to." and that this could spell "deep trouble" for theaters, especially smaller independent ones. Greenfield's full statement can be read below:

 

"[Studios] don't need the theaters as much as they used to. Do they still want theaters? Sure. Do they make money on theaters? Absolutely. It's a good business [and] movie theaters will be around for a very long time, but the leverage in the relationship is shifting towards the movie studio, and they're realizing that they can generate a lot of money directly to consumer … This is a pretty profound moment, [and] a big signal that direct-to-home movies that you know don't have to be seen in theaters are here to stay." 

 

[Gatsby77]

34 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

 

I agree.

We may be seeing a sea change here - as Disney's take - and profit - from the 2 million Disney+ Premier members opening weekend was arguably more important than (and eclipsed) its domestic box office take.

Again, the question is whether they continue to report these numbers - even when they underwhelm.

But to @Jaydogrulesearlier note that we don't know if we can trust those numbers,

1) I believe we can; and

2) This is the same sea change we saw 10 years ago, when Nielsen Ratings only captured broadcast numbers, not streaming. Nielsen (and other tracking outlets) adapted, albeit slowly.

The industry may be adapting (long term) to greater transparency, especially if/as the importance of theatrical revenue fades.

Separate but related:

It's significant that the number of Emmy nominations from streaming outlets outstripped the number of Emmy nominations from broadcast and cable outlets combined, for the first time this year.

I already think the era of say, AMC, hosting prestige shows like Mad Men, Breaking Bad or The Walking Dead is over.

Hard to imagine any of those not going directly to the likes of Netflix / Apple TV / HBO Max / Prime today.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Gatsby77

[Bosco685]

51 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

I agree.

We may be seeing a sea change here - as Disney's take - and profit - from the 2 million Disney+ Premier members opening weekend was arguably more important than (and eclipsed) its domestic box office take.

Again, the question is whether they continue to report these numbers - even when they underwhelm.

But to @Jaydogrulesearlier note that we don't know if we can trust those numbers,

1) I believe we can; and

2) This is the same sea change we saw 10 years ago, when Nielsen Ratings only captured broadcast numbers, not streaming. Nielsen (and other tracking outlets) adapted, albeit slowly.

The industry may be adapting (long term) to greater transparency, especially if/as the importance of theatrical revenue fades.

Separate but related:

It's significant that the number of Emmy nominations from streaming outlets outstripped the number of Emmy nominations from broadcast and cable outlets combined, for the first time this year.

I already think the era of say, AMC, hosting prestige shows like Mad Men, Breaking Bad or The Walking Dead is over.

Hard to imagine any of those not going directly to the likes of Netflix / Apple TV / HBO Max / Prime today.

It is also clear why Disney 'willingly' revealed those numbers, recognizing it is the leader in entertainment narrative control. To ensure Black Widow did not come across front-loaded. It is a difference when you look at box office drop-off, and especially since you compared to the first Wonder Woman film's release.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Bosco685

[thunsicker]

It may not be very popular on this forum, but I actually liked it.  There were a few points that took me out of it, but overall a solid 8/10.

[Bosco685]

5 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

It may not be very popular on this forum, but I actually liked it.  There were a few points that took me out of it, but overall a solid 8/10.

Good for you. You should enjoy whatever you like. Seriously.

But folks trying to sell the Disney narrative in here it was all for transparency that streaming revenue was released need to come out from the fields.

 

[Gatsby77]

1 hour ago, Bosco685 said:

It is also clear why Disney 'willingly' revealed those numbers, recognizing it is the leader in entertainment narrative control. To ensure Black Widow did not come across front-loaded. It is a difference when you look at box office drop-off, and especially since you compared to the first Wonder Woman film's release.

?

Two separate things.

*Nobody* is saying it wasn't incredibly front-loaded.

It both was *and* managed to kill it on additional streaming purchases. Both those things are true.

Either way, the actual industry headlines were simply that its $80 million 3-day theatrical take set a pandemic record, and a record for any release (so far) in 2020 or 2021.

That doesn't need any spin.

[Bosco685]

6 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

?

Two separate things.

*Nobody* is saying it wasn't incredibly front-loaded.

It both was *and* managed to kill it on additional streaming purchases. Both those things are true.

Either way, the actual industry headlines were simply that its $80 million 3-day theatrical take set a pandemic record, and a record for any release (so far) in 2020 or 2021.

That doesn't need any spin.

It did break a pandemic record. But then dropped rather quickly.

But Disney posting those streaming revenue numbers was not some glorious quest to drive more transparency. It very much was about controlling the narrative. But now it has analysts looking at if theaters are truly on a comeback, or was this the excited MCU fanbase that hasn't experienced any of its movies for two years.

[piper]

I’m going a 2nd time tonight with @Artboy99, @thehumantorch, and @kimik.

 

[Jaydogrules]

21 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

?

Two separate things.

*Nobody* is saying it wasn't incredibly front-loaded.

It both was *and* managed to kill it on additional streaming purchases. Both those things are true.

Either way, the actual industry headlines were simply that its $80 million 3-day theatrical take set a pandemic record, and a record for any release (so far) in 2020 or 2021.

That doesn't need any spin.

As somebody a couple pages back pointed out, when you pay the $30 on Disney plus, you own the movie forever, so for all we know, that "60 million" also represents a huge chunk of what would have been home video sales at a later date, thus making the movie even more front-loaded.

-J.

[Gatsby77]

10 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

It did break a pandemic record.

That's it. That's headline. Everything else you just stated is your opinion.

Quote

But Disney posting those streaming revenue numbers was not some glorious quest to drive more transparency.

Both your opinion and too soon to tell.

Note: Box Office Mojo has specifically broken out streaming revenue from theatrical revenue. They've not filled in the streaming revenue numbers yet (presumably because they've not validated them) but this points to their belief, at least, that this could be the new normal, not a one-off attempt to "control the narrative." Again, no need to apologize for the biggest opening weekend in 19 months - especially when other films like Fast 9 and A Quiet Place 2 were also solid successes - yet Black Widow smoked them.

[thunsicker]

1 minute ago, Jaydogrules said:

As somebody a couple pages back pointed out, when you pay the $30 on Disney plus, you own the movie forever, so for all we know, that "60 million" also represents a huge chunk of what would have been home video sales at a later date, thus making the movie even more front-loaded.

-J.

And to access said movie you 'own' you only have to keep up your $9.99/month disney plus subscription.  I'm guessing that's a bargain that Disney can live with.

[Heronext]

3 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

As somebody a couple pages back pointed out, when you pay the $30 on Disney plus, you own the movie forever, so for all we know, that "60 million" also represents a huge chunk of what would have been home video sales at a later date, thus making the movie even more front-loaded.

-J.

Subscribers to Disney+ would "own" the movie perpetually anyway, once it's released on the platform for all subscribers.  The $30 is a kind of license for repeated viewings over a given window, and is essentially worthless after that window

Edited July 14, 2021 by Heronext

[Jaydogrules]

5 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

And to access said movie you 'own' you only have to keep up your $9.99/month disney plus subscription.  I'm guessing that's a bargain that Disney can live with.

That's kind of academic though. 

The people who wanted to see it in the theater, have largely already seen it. 

The people who would have normally waited for a home video release, have also largely seen it.  

This style of release makes for a splashy first week number, but not a lot of gas in the tank going forward.  The Disney plus numbers even cannibalize some of the international money. 

Long story short, I don't see this as being a successful long term strategy that will entirely put theaters out of business.  Frankly, I think Black Widow's numbers kind of sucked, and publicizing the alleged Disney plus numbers was about Disney saving face.  

-J.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Jaydogrules

[Bosco685]

5 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

That's it. That's headline. Everything else you just stated is your opinion.

Both your opinion and too soon to tell.

Note: Box Office Mojo has specifically broken out streaming revenue from theatrical revenue. They've not filled in the streaming revenue numbers yet (presumably because they've not validated them) but this points to their belief, at least, that this could be the new normal, not a one-off attempt to "control the narrative." Again, no need to apologize for the biggest opening weekend in 19 months - especially when other films like Fast 9 and A Quiet Place 2 were also solid successes - yet Black Widow smoked them.

No. What I have provided is fact, and very clear Black Widow experienced a substantial domestic box office drop-off.

"They've not filled in the streaming revenue numbers yet (presumably because they've not validated them) but this points to their belief, at least, that this could be the new normal, not a one-off attempt to "control the narrative."

And there is the confirmation you are assuming this is the new normal when what took place for now is Disney controlled the narrative by countering the drop-off message. You are assuming this is the new normal. Aren't you?

[Bosco685]

17 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

And to access said movie you 'own' you only have to keep up your $9.99/month disney plus subscription.  I'm guessing that's a bargain that Disney can live with.

 

17 minutes ago, Heronext said:

Subscribers to Disney+ would "own" the movie perpetually anyway, once it's released on the platform for all subscribers.  The $30 is a kind of license for repeated viewings over a given window, and is essentially worthless after that window

Although subscribers get to keep the movie as long as they are enrolled, the average household most probably pays this knowing later on it is going to be free. They are doing it to treat themselves to a new movie event. With that type outlook, I doubt they care at that point if they own it or not. Averaging out theater ticket purchases to this, and a solid system to watch it, it is quite cost-effective for a group.