Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[lou_fine]

On 2/2/2021 at 6:49 PM, Randall Ries said:

Like Green Lantern 76 did. People were buying that book in 9.6 for $30k not all that long ago. I could get one for $9k now. That's a big drop. The auction houses, GCG with their little stickers and Metropolis are laughing all the way to the bank.

I guess you must be referring to this auction result here that ended at $29,585 back in June of 2009:

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/304395   

I clearly remember this sale and as I had mentioned at the time, this $30K was paid not so much for the book, but more for the label itself as it must have gone to a CGC label collector who was willing to dig deep deep down into their pocket to obtain the one and only highest graded copy of this book at the time.  

Like I stated at the time, it is totally absurb for label collectors to pay an insane premium for a temporary highest graded copy when the graded comic book market is still so new with so many more raw copies or lower graded copies still waiting to have their potential maximized.  As a long time collector, a good buy is when you buy a book at a price point such that you want other copies to enter into the marketplace to not only reinforce the price that you had paid for the book, but also to help push it up to the next incremental pricing level.  It's clearly a sign that you have over paid if the sales of other copies in the equivalent or similar grades only serves to push the price of your copy down.         

Edited February 15, 2021 by lou_fine

[Randall Ries]

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I guess you must be referring to this auction result here that ended at $29,585 back in June of 2009:

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/304395   

I clearly remember this sale and as I had mentioned at the time, this $30K was paid not so much for the book, but more for the label itself as it must have gone to a CGC label collector who was willing to dig deep deep down into their pocket to obtain the one and only highest graded copy of this book at the time.  

Like I stated at the time, it is totally absurb for label collectors to pay an insane premium for a temporary highest graded copy when the graded comic book market is still so new with so many more raw copies or lower graded copies still waiting to have their potential maximized.  As a long time collector, a good buy is when you buy a book at a price point such that you want other copies to enter into the marketplace to not only reinforce the price that you had paid for the book, but also to help push it up to the next incremental pricing level.  It's clearly a sign that you have over paid if the sales of other copies in the equivalent or similar grades only serves to push the price of your copy down.         

That's it entirely. Now you own a book that served to shoot all the other subsequently graded books in the face. "One Book to rule them all, One Book to find them, One Book to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them..."

[Poekaymon]

On 2/9/2021 at 8:50 PM, Randall Ries said:

 If a Wolvie movie comes out and doesn't feature what's his name or stinks or God forbid BOTH, there will be a "market correction".

Totally disagree.  Some books are affected by movies (and, even moreso it seems, rumors of movies), but Wolverine isn't one of them.  Some of his movies were seriously bad --didn't change anything.  And while Logan is generally considered one of the best superhero movies yet made, it was four years ago.  Not saying there won't be a correction market wide, but Wolvie doesn't rely on movies.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Poekaymon

[fastballspecial]

It will be interesting to see it plays out over the next few years with new collectors.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by fastballspecial

[Randall Ries]

41 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

Totally disagree.  Some books are affected by movies (and, even moreso it seems, rumors of movies), but Wolverine isn't one of them.  Some of his movies were seriously bad --didn't change anything.  And while Logan is generally considered one of the best superhero movies yet made, it was four years ago.  Not saying there won't be a correction market wide, but Wolvie doesn't rely on movies.

That's fine. I certainly don't wish anyone ill with their purchases. I SUCK at speculating as well. Just seems like there are so many copies available in decent shape. At some point, the bubble may burst. People and their whims are fickle. I mean, If I paid $5500 for a 9.0 today, there would be a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's tomorrow.

[october]

23 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

That's fine. I certainly don't wish anyone ill with their purchases. I SUCK at speculating as well. Just seems like there are so many copies available in decent shape. At some point, the bubble may burst. People and their whims are fickle. I mean, If I paid $5500 for a 9.0 today, there would be a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's tomorrow.

There are a lot of Jordan rookie cards out there too, but that didn't stop it from going to the moon in all grades. I think Wolverine is it that category, along with Venom. Supply is somewhat of a factor, but the demand is so strong it just doesn't matter that much how many copies are available. 

[Poekaymon]

1 hour ago, Randall Ries said:

That's fine. I certainly don't wish anyone ill with their purchases. I SUCK at speculating as well. Just seems like there are so many copies available in decent shape. At some point, the bubble may burst. People and their whims are fickle. I mean, If I paid $5500 for a 9.0 today, there would be a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's tomorrow.

No one's finding a warehouse of 9.8 H181s.  It's true that there are thousands, or tens of thousands, of some books.  But there are also billions of people in the world.  I just don't even consider big firsts to be "speculating."  If you want to bet against AF15, H181, FF48, etc, then you're just betting against the industry as a whole.  Unlike, say, modern variants (Star Wars craze, I'm looking at you).  But, sure, it could happen.  The stock market could go back to 5k too.  Capitalism could collapse and bullets and canned beans could be the primary currency of 2030.  Can't rule it out.

The question is whether it's more likely, based on objective, historical data, for for the market to go to 60k before it goes to 5k, or for H181 9.8 to go to 100k before it goes to 1k.  I believe the hard data supports my view, while the other view is driven by just a "gut feeling" that things are too high.  But, yeah, anything's possible.

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, october said:

Supply is somewhat of a factor, but the demand is so strong it just doesn't matter that much how many copies are available. 

I have always found that supply works both ways.  

Extreme rarity will actually hurt the increase in prices for a book because it's actually hard for a book to go up in value if copies only appear in the marketplace once or twice a decade if that.  

You need to have a good supply of the book out there to satiate the feeding frenzy in order to drive the valuations upwards ever more.  

[Randall Ries]

5 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

No one's finding a warehouse of 9.8 H181s.  It's true that there are thousands, or tens of thousands, of some books.  But there are also billions of people in the world.  I just don't even consider big firsts to be "speculating."  If you want to bet against AF15, H181, FF48, etc, then you're just betting against the industry as a whole.  Unlike, say, modern variants (Star Wars craze, I'm looking at you).  But, sure, it could happen.  The stock market could go back to 5k too.  Capitalism could collapse and bullets and canned beans could be the primary currency of 2030.  Can't rule it out.

The question is whether it's more likely, based on objective, historical data, for for the market to go to 60k before it goes to 5k, or for H181 9.8 to go to 100k before it goes to 1k.  I believe the hard data supports my view, while the other view is driven by just a "gut feeling" that things are too high.  But, yeah, anything's possible.

You know I was kidding, right? Just illustrating I'm the kind of person who discovers oil in his vegetable garden and all I will get out of it is dead tomatoes? "They" would find some way to disenfranchise me from my own garden. Yeh. I don't expect a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's either. But it would figure. Just saying the numbers of available nice grade IH 181 compared to nice grade AF 15 is pretty vast. Not comparing apples and oranges. I agree with your latter take: Things are too high. Maybe it's because of COVID and the stock market guys are weirding out. I don't know.

The amount IH 181 is worth with the availability of the issue itself is out of whack. We seem to have entered a period of Name Your Own Selling Price. People see a high price, perhaps they assume that's its value now. I don't. A billion people in the world. Not all of them are going to say "Oh I GOTS to get me a Hulk 181." Heck. I bought Vampironica #4 with the Bat 251 homage. 300 printed. By definition, that's rare. $30? Given the desire for them is probably nil. I only bought it for the homage. To me the series looks like a Buffy redo. Teen angst in Vampiric mode.  IH 181 is a bandwagon thing. It isn't a book I want to own at all. I just don't care.

Then again, as long as Wolvie stays "hot" and approved by the public at large, the book won't utterly collapse. Same with "Star Wars", a franchise I REALLY wish would just go away.

[Randall Ries]

On 2/10/2021 at 1:10 AM, MGsimba77 said:

Wonder Woman is not a great example. There have been a number of subpar DC comics movies. They will never equal the MCU. The MCU moves the needle in a way no one else does. WW doesn't match the appeal of a Wolverine and never will. I don't put it past Feige to screw up the x-men rollout however. I don't know maybe he decides to bypass the big screen and limit them to Wandavision??? Perhaps some other dumb idea like having Wolverine in a tank top or who knows what? Maybe bad casting with unrecognizable costumes totally unrelated to the source material. Fox certainly went in that cringe worthy direction. Maybe he does nothing with X and continues releasing Ant man & Wasp type movies or another Avengers? So it's far from a guarantee he doesn't fumble this. These guys tend to have their own ideas on how these characters should be portrayed often straying dramatically from the source material. I wouldn't be surprised if Wolverine ends up looking like Timber Wolf 

The point is Wolverine's popularity provides more of a buffer than WW or maybe most DC titles. His instant healing powers protect from damage inflicted by knuckleheaded movie execs. That's a good thing!

DC movies for the most part stink up the joint. The first Wonder Woman movie was surprisingly good. Watchmen was good but depressing. I was one of the few who like Man of Steel. The rest could be burned AFAIC. Marvel has it all over DC in that regard. I don't know what DC's problem is but they better get their HOOTA's.

I was only illustrating WW 1984 had a definite impact on the sudden drop in price for AS #8 as the first movie pushed AS #8 up in price. If it had been a success, the prices would have gone higher. TBH, I have always been quizzical about WW's appeal anyway. How that title has lasted for 80 years is beyond me.

[Randall Ries]

7 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

Totally disagree.  Some books are affected by movies (and, even moreso it seems, rumors of movies), but Wolverine isn't one of them.  Some of his movies were seriously bad --didn't change anything.  And while Logan is generally considered one of the best superhero movies yet made, it was four years ago.  Not saying there won't be a correction market wide, but Wolvie doesn't rely on movies.

Oh no. Wolvie absolutely relies on movies. He was/is popular yes and an innovative character. But IH 181 went nutsie when a new generation of people were introduced to Wolverine and comicdom in general via the flickers. And I am too lazy and bored to do the research, but I imagine the bigger spikes in pricing of IH 181 came right after the movies that were successful entered the consciousness of investors and kids who wanted adamantium claws. For example, if another Wolvie movie comes out and wins an Academy Award or is outright awesome, you are implying that the value of IH 181 will remain static? I don't think so. A bunch of clunker movies would begin to force the prices down as a whole lot of people only have exposure to Wolvie through the talkies and back issues. Perhaps reprints. Seems like the whole thing is tied together now. A real multi-media lollapaloozer. Movies are like the stock market for comic books now.

[lou_fine]

19 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

I was only illustrating WW 1984 had a definite impact on the sudden drop in price for AS #8 as the first movie pushed AS #8 up in price. If it had been a success, the prices would have gone higher. TBH, I have always been quizzical about WW's appeal anyway. How that title has lasted for 80 years is beyond me.

Well, that's probably because the character was created and the stories written by the old professor way back in the 40's who clearly had ideas about sexual attitudes that were way ahead of their time:    

Looks like he certainly didn't mind "sharing" and I am sure he also found more titillating ways to use that lasso than what he had depicted in his comic book stories.    

Edited February 15, 2021 by lou_fine

[Randall Ries]

34 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, that's probably because the character was created and the stories written by the old professor way back in the 40's who clearly had ideas about sexual attitudes that were way ahead of their time:    

Looks like he certainly didn't mind "sharing" and I am sure he also found more titillating ways to use that lasso than what he had depicted in his comic book stories.    

Maybe. Maybe. Seems like kind of a reach, though. I DO take some joy in responding to "woke" people who describe WW as "Empowering" and "a real role model for young girls and women everywhere".

"Right ON, Sister! WW was into bondage and spanking early on!"

"Wh-wh-wh-WHAAAAA?" LOL!

After that, it got kinda tepid. I liked what Miller did with her in "Dark Knight III", though. The first Gadot movie was good. They had to botch it with WW 1984, of course. They wouldn't be DC otherwise.

[rckstr1253]

Do you guys think the prices will settle at some point in the future and maybe stay or come down a little?  I ask as I missed the boat and not sure if it’s wise to buy in now or wait and hope prices stabilize or go down a little?

[Poekaymon]

1 hour ago, Randall Ries said:

Oh no. Wolvie absolutely relies on movies.

This is just objectively false.  H181 was steadily rising throughout the 90s and the 2000s with zero movies.  And since 2018 it has gone up more than any 3 year period in history--again, with zero movies (or even movie rumors).  Everyone knows the character and is reasonably confident that it will stick around.  I don't think it will matter at all if they don't do another movie, or even hint at one, in say the next 5 years or make one and it is garbage.  If they take time off of Spider-Man movies it ain't gonna hurt AF15 either.  They are more like icons at this point.

[Callaway29]

So many IH181's out there....sooooooo many. About to crack 11K universals... I remember when breaking 10K was a big deal, what...a couple years ago?

[I am not Glenda]

1 hour ago, Poekaymon said:

This is just objectively false.  H181 was steadily rising throughout the 90s and the 2000s with zero movies.  And since 2018 it has gone up more than any 3 year period in history--again, with zero movies (or even movie rumors).  Everyone knows the character and is reasonably confident that it will stick around.  I don't think it will matter at all if they don't do another movie, or even hint at one, in say the next 5 years or make one and it is garbage.  If they take time off of Spider-Man movies it ain't gonna hurt AF15 either.  They are more like icons at this point.

Maybe I am off on this but it works like this for me for being bullet proof................GA- Superman/Batman ( AC# 1 Tec 27 you pic)  SA- Spiderman ( AF 15) BA- Wolverine 181 CA- TMNT........ Modern age,...... Deadpool, Venom, Harley ,Miles, X-23 & I am sure I forgot a few & where I am having the most fun right now. ( All modern have to be 9.8 or just buy a raw and enjoy it............ But either way any of the books listed are solid long term regardless of what is happening right now. PS willing to trade a hundred X Force ones with DP card for your 181's come on hey are HOT HOT HOT

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[Randall Ries]

1 hour ago, Poekaymon said:

This is just objectively false.  H181 was steadily rising throughout the 90s and the 2000s with zero movies.  And since 2018 it has gone up more than any 3 year period in history--again, with zero movies (or even movie rumors).  Everyone knows the character and is reasonably confident that it will stick around.  I don't think it will matter at all if they don't do another movie, or even hint at one, in say the next 5 years or make one and it is garbage.  If they take time off of Spider-Man movies it ain't gonna hurt AF15 either.  They are more like icons at this point.

RIIIIGHT. "Logan" was released in 2017. It was on DVD and digital by May 2017. You are fooling yourself. IH 181 saw a massive spike in value after that. I watched it happen. Pricing for that book got stupid ridiculous. Pricing steadied in 2019 and 2020 COVID hit. Stock markets poops the bed and investors ONCE AGAIN turn to tangibles to put their bucks into. IH 181 is a blue chip book among others. Easy to find and plentiful.

[MGsimba77]

3 hours ago, Randall Ries said:

I was only illustrating WW 1984 had a definite impact on the sudden drop in price for AS #8 as the first movie pushed AS #8 up in price. If it had been a success, the prices would have gone higher. TBH, I have always been quizzical about WW's appeal anyway. How that title has lasted for 80 years is beyond me.

Yeah I agree. I actually liked WW '84. It wasn't that bad and I liked the actress big time! I suspect the WW appeal came from people intrigued to see a woman portrayed as a super hero during those olden days. The Lynda Carter 70s show gave it a giant boost I'm sure. I love that show and Lynda Carter is unbeatable as WW! It's on "meTV" a classic TV network on Saturdays.

Edited February 16, 2021 by MGsimba77

[Randall Ries]

1 hour ago, rckstr1253 said:

Do you guys think the prices will settle at some point in the future and maybe stay or come down a little?  I ask as I missed the boat and not sure if it’s wise to buy in now or wait and hope prices stabilize or go down a little?

My guess is when COVID vaccines kick in and things start seeing "normal" the stock market goofuses will go back to doing what they were doing and start selling off their ballast.