How did the 90's bubble bust impact GA sales/values? 3 3

[jhm]

I was in high school in the early 90's and had been profiting from the modern book sales by traveling around, dealing at shows in Florida (GA didn't exist in my world at the time). I left the hobby after heading off to college and returned just a handful of years ago with a core interest in GA books.

Can some of you long-time GA collectors tell me what that 90s bubble bust did to GA (maybe even SA) interest?

IMO we are setup to hit another bust in modern any time within the next couple years.

With the GA stuff I like (classic covers, rare stuff, shock covers across genres, etc.) exploding in cost recently, I'm considering whether I should pause on buying for a while or push through.

One of the things that excites me the most about GA is the rarity compared to the rest of the hobby. The "hunt" is real... you can get truly excited to see a low grade copy. I love seeing "classic" books that have 20 copies on the census. I see nothing but growth for this sector of the hobby. But like any other alternate investment, it will always have its short-cycle ups and downs.

Thanks in advance for any insight!

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, jhm said:

Can some of you long-time GA collectors tell me what that 90s bubble bust did to GA (maybe even SA) interest?

I believe the Modern bubble burst around the time of the Valiant Deathmate issues which came out in 1993 and 1994.

If I remember correctly, the GA market started to catch fire in 1994 and then went absolutely ballistics in 1995, before petering out towards the end of '96.  So, the hot and irrational exuberant time for the GA books was for a relatively short period of time.  If I remember correctly, the demand cycled through from the mainstream publishers and keys right through to the second and third tier publishers and classic covers towards the end.

Definitely a period marked with fast sales, rocking and rolling fun, and what was seen as astronomical prices at the time. 

[jimbo_7071]

I will have to trust lou_fine on the overall picture, but I sold many of my GA books in '95 for substantially less than I had paid for them in the late 80s, so I didn't witness the market going ballistic at that time. One dealer told me he was sitting on a million dollars worth of inventory that he couldn't move.

[mwotka]

I too was high school age during the mid 90s bust.  I didn't pay attention to GA back then, so I'm curious how prices have behaved.  But it seems to me, that given the dollar amounts involved in GA (at least for key or very desirable issues), the pricing would more closely mirror the behavior of the overall economy and by extension financial markets and interest rates.  So when someone's stock portfolio crashes, like things did in 2000/01 and 2008/09, there should be a corresponding drop in GA prices (similar trends are observed in art sales, I believe).  When buyers are suddenly very short of cash, makes sense to find dealers that can't move their inventory.  And when borrowing costs rise dramatically, you lose the portion of the market that wants to finance a large purchase, and prices stagnate or drop as well.  I think the modern era busts have more to do with fads fading out, a la beanie babies, where the millions of buyers suddenly realize they can't sell a common item they paid way too much for, like the millions of copies of Valiant Deathmate and the death of Superman (still have mine).  Wondering when this will occur for Walking Dead.  And folks that deal in comics, while they might not lose too much in GA value, if they have significant inventory of (now relatively worthless) modern stuff, they too will be forced to sell scarcer assets in a soft market at lower prices to stay in business.  So busts in one area can certainly affect another.  But I too have faith in things of quality that are scarce, certainly over the longer term.  

[Knightsofold]

From what I’ve read in the old Overstreet guide market reports the GA keys didn’t tank much, people held, and anytime more typical investing failed the well off put $ into alternative investments like comics.  I’ll see if I can find some of the articles I read about it.

[Johnny545]

50 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

I believe the Modern bubble burst around the time of the Valiant Deathmate issues which came out in 1993 and 1994.

If I remember correctly, the GA market started to catch fire in 1994 and then went absolutely ballistics in 1995, before petering out towards the end of '96.  So, the hot and irrational exuberant time for the GA books was for a relatively short period of time.  If I remember correctly, the demand cycled through from the mainstream publishers and keys right through to the second and third tier publishers and classic covers towards the end.

Definitely a period marked with fast sales, rocking and rolling fun, and what was seen as astronomical prices at the time. 

The idea of demand cycling through to lesser titles/publishers is interesting. 

Can't help, but feel there is some of that going on now, so many books are out of reach to many, but the drive to collect/acquire/accumulate must be satisfied and so you see books that sat around with no interest (just a few years back) now snatched up at questionable and sometimes confusing prices. 

Of course it is impossible to accurately determine whether you are at the base of a mountain heading up or about to fall back down the other side. 

That old adage, buy what you love is perhaps the only sound advice.

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I will have to trust lou_fine on the overall picture, but I sold many of my GA books in '95 for substantially less than I had paid for them in the late 80s, so I didn't witness the market going ballistic at that time. One dealer told me he was sitting on a million dollars worth of inventory that he couldn't move.

Are you sure this was in 1995 because as far as I can remember, this was the time that even dealers such as Metro were offering multiples of guide for key or even semi-key GA books, especially if they were in condition? 

I guess it also depends on what type of GA books you had and in what type of condition they were in. 

[lou_fine]

37 minutes ago, Johnny545 said:

The idea of demand cycling through to lesser titles/publishers is interesting. 

Actually, this concept of cycling though was also evident on a more macro level if you extend the time period. 

For example, the SA books started their rise in value in the very late 80's after almost a full decade of malaise where prices went absolutely nowhere, with even a hint of a slow downward drift in prices.  I believe this rise in the valuations of the SA books was the fuel that ignited the MA boom once Image and Valiant appeared on the scene in the early 90's. 

The sharp increase in the valuations of GA books in the mid-90's from my point of view, was really nothing more than a big and much overdue catch-up to what had been happening earlier in terms of rapidly rising valuations within both the SA and MA markets. 

[jimbo_7071]

16 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Are you sure this was in 1995 because as far as I can remember, this was the time that even dealers such as Metro were offering multiples of guide for key or even semi-key GA books, especially if they were in condition? 

I guess it also depends on what type of GA books you had and in what type of condition they were in. 

I had a mixed bag, but mostly mid—high grade GA, including Bats and Tecs. No key books but some Joker covers. I'm pretty sure about the year. My only outlet for books was local dealers in the Detroit area; things may have been better elsewhere.

[Robot Man]

GA comics and Modern comics are two different animals. Different collectors. I doubt one affects the other much mainly due to the audience and price points. The know the SA market has affected the GA market at different times. Both have very passionate collectors that spend a lot on their collections. Many SA collectors have realized that GA books are a bigger challenge to find and have expanded their interests or moved over. 

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, jimbo_7071 said:

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Are you sure this was in 1995 because as far as I can remember, this was the time that even dealers such as Metro were offering multiples of guide for key or even semi-key GA books, especially if they were in condition? 

I guess it also depends on what type of GA books you had and in what type of condition they were in. 

I had a mixed bag, but mostly mid—high grade GA, including Bats and Tecs. No key books but some Joker covers. I'm pretty sure about the year. My only outlet for books was local dealers in the Detroit area; things may have been better elsewhere.

From my point of view, the GA market is a highly specialized market and you would have to target the right kind of dealer and/or customer base if you are looking to sell your GA books.  And these would in almost all cases NOT be your local based dealers who tend to be much more interested in mainstream books which their own customer base can relate to.  These types of books would be more in the realm of the larger National dealers and auctions since their clientele would be interested in books like these. 

For example, even in this robust GA market which we apparently have right now, the biggest local comic shop owner in my city has absolutely no interest in picking up any of the so-called red hot Fox, Centaur, or any of the second tier titles that I mention to him sometimes.  That's because his customer base is interested only in the SA Marvels, and if it comes to GA books, then primarily only your mainstream comic book characters such as Batman and Superman which are easily recognizable.

Edited March 27, 2018 by lou_fine

[MrBedrock]

6 hours ago, jhm said:

IMO we are setup to hit another bust in modern any time within the next couple years.

Why?

[lou_fine]

If I remember correctly, the GA market was the hottest sector within the comic book market during that short period of time, as the MA market had already gone bust by then and the SA market had already peaked and was already into its cooling phase relative to the GA market by then . 

[MrBedrock]

I always love reading these threads and seeing the differing viewpoints stated as fact, and which are each solely based on anecdotal evidence or biased opinion.

I can never remember a time when the golden age market as a whole has dropped in value. There have definitely been times when specific genres or titles have been stagnate or have dropped, but never a time when ALL golden age was stagnate, or ALL silver age was stagnate. Frankly there has never been a time when ALL new comics were unsellable. If that were the case then ALL comic stores would have gone out of business. Even during the mid to late 1990's there were new comics that were selling well. Some segment of back issue collecting has always increased in value but some amount which is higher than whatever segment has decreased in value. The back issue hobby has grown every year since I have been involved in it. The new issue market has grown and contracted a number of times over the last four decades (I started working in a comic store in 1978), most notably at the end of the "black and white glut" of the early 1980s and the end of the "speculator market" of the early 1990s. I don't think there is any solid evidence to make a correlation between new issue sales and back issue growth over the market as a whole.

My point is that this entire thread is conjecture. There have been no serious economic studies on the correlation of vintage comic sales and new issue comic sales. There have been no serious studies of the various trends in vintage comic pricing over time. I would love for someone to use some hard data to actual analyze these trends. But how many stores carry vintage? How many vintage dealers carry new comics? More importantly how many comic dealers are willing to share their actual sales data?

So speculate away. Have fun. But please don't take much said here seriously.

[lou_fine]

7 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

So speculate away. Have fun. But please don't take much said here seriously.

Richard;

That's EXACTLY why we are all here........to have a fun and happy time talking and speculating about our funny books. 

Edited March 27, 2018 by lou_fine

[N e r V]

7 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

I always love reading these threads and seeing the differing viewpoints stated as fact, and which are each solely based on anecdotal evidence or biased opinion.

I can never remember a time when the golden age market as a whole has dropped in value. There have definitely been times when specific genres or titles have been stagnate or have dropped, but never a time when ALL golden age was stagnate, or ALL silver age was stagnate. Frankly there has never been a time when ALL new comics were unsellable. If that were the case then ALL comic stores would have gone out of business. Even during the mid to late 1990's there were new comics that were selling well. Some segment of back issue collecting has always increased in value but some amount which is higher than whatever segment has decreased in value. The back issue hobby has grown every year since I have been involved in it. The new issue market has grown and contracted a number of times over the last four decades (I started working in a comic store in 1978), most notably at the end of the "black and white glut" of the early 1980s and the end of the "speculator market" of the early 1990s. I don't think there is any solid evidence to make a correlation between new issue sales and back issue growth over the market as a whole.

My point is that this entire thread is conjecture. There have been no serious economic studies on the correlation of vintage comic sales and new issue comic sales. There have been no serious studies of the various trends in vintage comic pricing over time. I would love for someone to use some hard data to actual analyze these trends. But how many stores carry vintage? How many vintage dealers carry new comics? More importantly how many comic dealers are willing to share their actual sales data?

So speculate away. Have fun. But please don't take much said here seriously.

 

 

Better start giving your 9.6’s to the poor and repent buddy....

[sfcityduck]

4 hours ago, mwotka said:

 So when someone's stock portfolio crashes, like things did in 2000/01 and 2008/09, there should be a corresponding drop in GA prices (similar trends are observed in art sales, I believe).  When buyers are suddenly very short of cash, makes sense to find dealers that can't move their inventory.  And when borrowing costs rise dramatically, you lose the portion of the market that wants to finance a large purchase, and prices stagnate or drop as well.

Couple things wrong with these statements.

First, I don't know any comic collectors who are using the stock market to finance their comic collecting.  I do know of people who, when the market starts to downturn, decide to sell their stocks and move some small portion of their cash into collectibles as a hedge investment.  So your initial premise does not work for me.

Second, in the early 1990s and the 2008/2009 time period, interest rates declined.  So, there is no reason to think that "borrowing costs" increases occurred in the relevant time periods which would have impacted the collectibles market.  For that matter, I can only think of one person I know who borrowed money to fund a comic purchase, and he borrowed from his family to fund that Action 1 acquisition.  So I don't agree with the second theme you assert above either.

[adamstrange]

8 hours ago, jhm said:

With the GA stuff I like (classic covers, rare stuff, shock covers across genres, etc.) exploding in cost recently, I'm considering whether I should pause on buying for a while or push through.

It sounds like you like a lot of what I like so I'm going with "pause."  Not for long.  20 years should work just fine.

[Flex Mentallo]

1 hour ago, MrBedrock said:

I always love reading these threads and seeing the differing viewpoints stated as fact, and which are each solely based on anecdotal evidence or biased opinion.

I can never remember a time when the golden age market as a whole has dropped in value. There have definitely been times when specific genres or titles have been stagnate or have dropped, but never a time when ALL golden age was stagnate, or ALL silver age was stagnate. Frankly there has never been a time when ALL new comics were unsellable. If that were the case then ALL comic stores would have gone out of business. Even during the mid to late 1990's there were new comics that were selling well. Some segment of back issue collecting has always increased in value but some amount which is higher than whatever segment has decreased in value. The back issue hobby has grown every year since I have been involved in it. The new issue market has grown and contracted a number of times over the last four decades (I started working in a comic store in 1978), most notably at the end of the "black and white glut" of the early 1980s and the end of the "speculator market" of the early 1990s. I don't think there is any solid evidence to make a correlation between new issue sales and back issue growth over the market as a whole.

My point is that this entire thread is conjecture. There have been no serious economic studies on the correlation of vintage comic sales and new issue comic sales. There have been no serious studies of the various trends in vintage comic pricing over time. I would love for someone to use some hard data to actual analyze these trends. But how many stores carry vintage? How many vintage dealers carry new comics? More importantly how many comic dealers are willing to share their actual sales data?

So speculate away. Have fun. But please don't take much said here seriously.

What I'd like to ask you, Richard, is whether you see a widening rift in the back issue market, between the higher end and everything else, or would you speculate that a  rising tide will raise all ships? I promise not to take your view as fact - just interested to learn if you have a view?

There was a time when you could go on Ebay and most of what was offered in Golden Age was auctioned. You could bag last minute wins under the radar. Now all but 3% or 4% of what is on offer is BIN. Most of that seems to be optimistically priced. A lot of that stuff just lies there unsold. [The first golden age book I ever won in a Heritage auction was a Military Comics #14 in 9.4 that went well under guide. I flipped it a year or two later and just about recouped my outlay. The buyer immediately listed it on Ebay at several times the price. It has been there ever since - maybe 8 or 9 years.]

Meanwhile the high end market surges on to greater heights, seemingly unstoppable.  I assume that when compared to other areas of collecting, comics still have huge growth potential, and there are evidently many people out there willing and able to speculate. If a book sells high at auction, a new value is established, a sort of magic realism. This attracts further interest. On Ebay, conversely, sellers seem to assume that their low to midgrade books deserve to be priced in relation to high grade books, and hike their prices, even on books in rags. Even the dross seems largely overpriced. I suppose it was ever thus, but is it more thus than previously?

 

[Sqeggs]

1 hour ago, MrBedrock said:

But please don't take much said here seriously.

Why didn't you tell me this 10 years ago?