What percent of existing copies of Action 1, Detective 27, Superman 1, and Batman 1 are already CGC graded? 1 1

[Chicago Boy]

Does anyone know if the Rockford Copy Tec 27 & the 3.0 Blue on the Voldy pop report are still on the CGC census ? 

[circumstances]

All I know for a fact is that zero percent of my Supe 1 and Bat 1 are slabbed.

[lou_fine]

23 hours ago, Wayne-Tec said:

I don't want to speak for you Rick, but by those estimates and for the sake of discussion, lets say there are...

Numbers in parenthesis represent the total number of slabbed CGC/Voldy copies (0.5 and above)

 

Action #1

175 total

(75) slabbed (43%)

Detective #27

175 total

(77) slabbed (44%)

Superman #1

300 total

(174) slabbed (58%)

Captain America #1

350 total

(186) slabbed (53%)

Batman #1

400 total

(301) slabbed (75%)

 

Perhaps Batman #1 is the exception here, with 3/4 of existing copies already being slabbed.

But s far the other four books, we're looking at roughly 50% of existing copies remaining raw, undiscovered or in private collections.

What's your rationale for thinking that Bat 1 would have a substantially higher percentage of their copies graded, as compared to the other big GA keys?  

[Chicago Boy]

9 hours ago, Chicago Boy said:

Let’s expand on this just a bit : How many RAW Action 1’s , Tec 27, & / or Marvel 1’s do you CURRENTLY know exist ?  I personally know of 4 RAW Action 1’s. ( and have heard of at least 2 more ).  

I just remembered 2 raw Tec 27’s....

[Wayne-Tec]

18 hours ago, lou_fine said:

What's your rationale for thinking that Bat 1 would have a substantially higher percentage of their copies graded, as compared to the other big GA keys?  

I was just comparing the number of slabbed copies to Rick’s 2018 guesstimates (he said 300-500 so I used 400).

With 301 copies already slabbed, that would mean that if 400 exist, 3/4 or so are slabbed compared to the other books mentioned (closer to a 50/50 split).

[Chicago Boy]

On 5/4/2020 at 1:50 PM, Wayne-Tec said:

I was just comparing the number of slabbed copies to Rick’s 2018 guesstimates (he said 300-500 so I used 400).

With 301 copies already slabbed, that would mean that if 400 exist, 3/4 or so are slabbed compared to the other books mentioned (closer to a 50/50 split).

Did Rick have a guesstimate for Marvel 1 surviving copies ?  Would love to know how many current raw copies of AC 1. Tec 27 and MC 1 he is CURRENTLY aware of  to compare to both pop reports and if he has any info regarding the Rockford copy and 3.0 being removed from the CGC Census.  Rick - come play with us ! 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Chicago Boy

[Chicago Boy]

Seems like a good time for a bump to get some new perspectives 

[tth2]

43.876%

[Wayne-Tec]

One of my favorite subjects.

[Wayne-Tec]

Below are the total number of CGC slabbed copies (all labels) as of today’s CGC census check.

In my opinion, which is likely to continue to evolve over time: I think that if you believe that the total number of existing copies is 2-3x the CGC census totals, you’re being generous.

After 20+ years of CGC grading, with FMV being what it is, with the number of raw copies owned by aging collectors, I wouldn’t be surprised if more than half of all existing copies have already been slabbed.

But for discussion’s sake, I’ve multiplied the number of slabbed copies 2x-3x and put that number in parentheses to give us an idea of how many copies may remain in existence all together.

Action Comics #1

• 72 copies

(144-216)

 

Detective Comics #27

• 69 copies

(138-207)

 

Marvel Comics #1

• 63 copies

(126-189)

 

Superman #1

• 159 copies

(318-477)

 

Batman #1

• 273 copies

(546-819)

 

Captain America Comics #1

• 177 copies

(354-531)

[Cat-Man_America]

Great topic with many possible answers and lots of unknowns. This is a rabbit hole of limitless possibilities and likelihoods.  I doubt that anyone’s crystal ball is polished enough to see through the haze.

The things which can’t be accounted for are lower grade raw copies in the marketplace, undiscovered copies in private collections, attics or storage and undocumented grade bumps in the census.  These can change hands without even being a blip on most collector’s radar.  

The elephant in the room is third party grading outside of the CGC, either by the leading competitor or less reputable alternatives.  The two top grading companies maintain a census, so that helps even though the accuracy is never going to be 100% based on undocumented resubs and potential for bumps.

If I were rolling the dice on a “guesstimate” it would probably be around 60% of existing books based on claimed grades assuming some form of documentation (either slabbed or raw, but uniquely identifiable books with known whereabouts).  The rest is anybody’s guess; that’s just playing the odds. 

Of coarse, the usual caveat that everyone’s mileage varies applies here as well as my caffeine consumption.

[batman_fan]

3 hours ago, tth2 said:

43.876%

43.876% +/- 0.0023%, 1 sigma

You really need to start giving a confidence interval when you quote these numbers.

[circumstances]

3 hours ago, Wayne-Tec said:

with the number of raw copies owned by aging collectors

Just @ me next time!

[Professor K]

There also may be some people out there with multiple or many multiple copies just stashed away. I would say the answer is less than half, probably around 30%, maybe 40% are graded. As far as high grades in existance (8.0 ish and higher) I would guess probably 3/4 of them have been graded. Its really anybodys guess. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Professor Chaos
40%

[Drgoldage]

I am guessing that 30-40 percent are graded , I have copies of all and other than my Batman 1 all are raw and were bought when encapsulation wasn't available. I suspect there are still a bunch of collectors like me that hang on to their treasures quietly , never thinking to send to CGC. 

[fishbone]

On 2/1/2021 at 12:51 AM, Drgoldage said:

I am guessing that 30-40 percent are graded , I have copies of all and other than my Batman 1 all are raw and were bought when encapsulation wasn't available. I suspect there are still a bunch of collectors like me that hang on to their treasures quietly , never thinking to send to CGC. 

I am in agreement with this type of number ..... many true collectors from 30-50 years ago , pre-CGC, have not seen reason enough to put their grails "in jail" yet.  If one really wants to "sell", the books could be sent to CC, Heritage, CL, whatever, and they will do all of that for you anyway.