Heritage's Next Event Auction has started posting books ! 31 31

[eschnit]

On 9/24/2021 at 1:16 PM, Cat-Man_America said:

I boldfaced the most relevant points, but will digress from Saddle Justice as I don't want to stirrup trouble.  

The two highest bidders is probably less meaningful in the marketplace than where the third bidder dropped out.  In my estimation that figure would be a more trustworthy indicator of a book's real world value.  

It's one of the reasons establishing values in Price Guides and through data analysis sites is so exceedingly difficult. Price Guides are too conservative and irregularly published to provide accurate baseline values.  Also, Guide values tend to go out of date quickly. Data Analysis sites are much better for keeping current on market activity (sales) if their coverage is thorough enough, but that's the catch.  Analytical sites are often compromised by providing incomplete data, exclusivity deals that showcase their preference for specific grading services and auctions and proprietary practices that cover only part of the existing sales information.   This is also complicated by a system that prioritizes grading as "trustworthy" while penalizing competition (...go with the competitor and you're leaving money on the table) and the leading grading service engaging in business activities that create an appearance of coziness with one of the leading auction houses.  

To add to this confusion "trends" are an iffy proposition usually reliant on media speculation, which is real enough, but always a dice roll.  Collector fueled frenzy is a poor investment strategy.

The obvious irony is the Promise Collection being regarded by some as the most amazing collection ever discovered.  Granted, it's a remarkable collection, but everything else surrounding it appears to be pure hyperbole.  It wouldn't surprise me if this narrative comes back to haunt some of those Kool Aid drinking collectors/investors you alluded to and even the CGC if their management isn't careful.  

If I were a betting man, my chips would be on major players in these businesses cashing in and bailing before things go south.  To analogize where the collecting world stands, if the collecting marketplace were compared to a great white whale of legend (Moby something-or-other), those who profit from the chase won't be the folks volunteering to ride it to the end.  Keep your eye on the key players involved in the CGC and Heritage.  Look at their movements like a "weather vane." If everything goes south in the markets or pedigree interest, the spinning will stop, but they'll still land on their feet.

Note (beluga caveat): The Promise Collection is an excellent pedigree with a great story behind it, but the embellishment of it's importance in concert with the hyperbolic public promotion without deference to other well respected pedigreed books of equal or superior distinction is jaw dropping in it's mendacity.

Too much caffeine today!

 

I agree with much of what you said, but would suggest something else to consider. Regarding “cashing out”, there’s another aspect.  All asset classes have inflated, to such a degree that one could suggest cashing out before it’s too late in pretty much every single asset class one can name.  Stocks, real estate, crypto, currency, art, comics, coins, cards, gold and silver, classic cars, bonds...if you can come up with anything else, I can almost assure you the price is way up from where it’s been, just recently.  

Nothing is cheap, or on sale.  If I look at prices some comics went for in March of 2020, and see it was half of what I have to pay today, I don’t regret not buying the book then for a second.  Would have been a horrible way to spend my money, given other asset classes have tripled or quadrupled, and if you chose wisely, a lot more than that.

I’m not suggesting prices of comics won’t come down.  Or even that divesting some won’t be a smart decision.  Certainly it might be, and the big players may be out in front of it.  All I’m getting at, is it’s not really obvious that comics are a bad place to have capital invested relative to anything else right now.  

[Robot Man]

On 9/24/2021 at 11:16 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

I boldfaced the most relevant points, but will digress from Saddle Justice as I don't want to stirrup trouble.  

The two highest bidders is probably less meaningful in the marketplace than where the third bidder dropped out.  In my estimation that figure would be a more trustworthy indicator of a book's real world value.  

It's one of the reasons establishing values in Price Guides and through data analysis sites is so exceedingly difficult. Price Guides are too conservative and irregularly published to provide accurate baseline values.  Also, Guide values tend to go out of date quickly. Data Analysis sites are much better for keeping current on market activity (sales) if their coverage is thorough enough, but that's the catch.  Analytical sites are often compromised by providing incomplete data, exclusivity deals that showcase their preference for specific grading services and auctions and proprietary practices that cover only part of the existing sales information.   This is also complicated by a system that prioritizes grading as "trustworthy" while penalizing competition (...go with the competitor and you're leaving money on the table) and the leading grading service engaging in business activities that create an appearance of coziness with one of the leading auction houses.  

To add to this confusion "trends" are an iffy proposition usually reliant on media speculation, which is real enough, but always a dice roll.  Collector fueled frenzy is a poor investment strategy.

The obvious irony is the Promise Collection being regarded by some as the most amazing collection ever discovered.  Granted, it's a remarkable collection, but everything else surrounding it appears to be pure hyperbole.  It wouldn't surprise me if this narrative comes back to haunt some of those Kool Aid drinking collectors/investors you alluded to and even the CGC if their management isn't careful.  

If I were a betting man, my chips would be on major players in these businesses cashing in and bailing before things go south.  To analogize where the collecting world stands, if the collecting marketplace were compared to a great white whale of legend (Moby something-or-other), those who profit from the chase won't be the folks volunteering to ride it to the end.  Keep your eye on the key players involved in the CGC and Heritage.  Look at their movements like a "weather vane." If everything goes south in the markets or pedigree interest, the spinning will stop, but they'll still land on their feet.

Note (beluga caveat): The Promise Collection is an excellent pedigree with a great story behind it, but the embellishment of it's importance in concert with the hyperbolic public promotion without deference to other well respected pedigreed books of equal or superior distinction is jaw dropping in it's mendacity.

Too much caffeine today!

 

I think in a little more long winded way, you kind of repeated what I said...

As far as cashing out. I think we have been seeing it a bit already. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some more especially from the deep pocket crowd.

I have always bought what I liked, paying “comfortable” prices. Never with the thought of making big money at it. Just love of the medium. Being s collector for over 50 years and keeping most of what I bought, I am currently looking at this market in amazement and a smile. Prices will stall out a little and maybe come down a bit. I’m just fine with it because at this point, I will make an INSANE profit on 95% of what I’ve bought over the years. Sad part is, I’ve been pretty much priced out of the little left I would like to aquire. 

Another point. Anybody notice the stock market today in the news that China is no longer supporting crypto currency? What will happen in this “hobby” now? Even higher prices and more “investors”? Time will tell. I’m just happy I have comics instead of Bit Coin...

[lou_fine]

On 9/24/2021 at 11:16 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

The two highest bidders is probably less meaningful in the marketplace than where the third bidder dropped out.  In my estimation that figure would be a more trustworthy indicator of a book's real world value.

Exactly right when it comes to many of these so-called one-time unique books (either due to rarity or grade) from the Promise Collection auctioned off at mind numbing results that you know the final price is often driven right up there by the final 2 bidders, as everybody else has already dropped off long before the end.  

I clearly remembered taking part in the Jon Berk Auction on CC back a few years ago when so many of those hardly ever seen early Centaur or late Fox books with well less than a handful in the census and no known pedigrees for some issues were publicly available for the first time in several years.  After bidding on them during the extended bidding sessions, you just knew after a while based upon the pacing of the bids or whatever, that it was really just between you and the one other unknown bidder.  It really all came down to nothing more than a matter of which one of you two will stop hitting that bid button, as the price has already gone up by 50% or sometimes even doubled from when the other bidders had already dropped out long ago.      

Edited September 25, 2021 by lou_fine

[Aman619]

depends on who the other bidder was....

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/24/2021 at 3:40 PM, Robot Man said:

I think in a little more long winded way, you kind of repeated what I said...

As far as cashing out. I think we have been seeing it a bit already. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some more especially from the deep pocket crowd.

I have always bought what I liked, paying “comfortable” prices. Never with the thought of making big money at it. Just love of the medium. Being s collector for over 50 years and keeping most of what I bought, I am currently looking at this market in amazement and a smile. Prices will stall out a little and maybe come down a bit. I’m just fine with it because at this point, I will make an INSANE profit on 95% of what I’ve bought over the years. Sad part is, I’ve been pretty much priced out of the little left I would like to aquire. 

Another point. Anybody notice the stock market today in the news that China is no longer supporting crypto currency? What will happen in this “hobby” now? Even higher prices and more “investors”? Time will tell. I’m just happy I have comics instead of Bit Coin...

I think we'll see quite a bit of "cashing out" over the next few years, but not just because of where prices are. The biggest factor is the age of GA collectors. From what I've seen, most collectors cash out in their 60s. Sure, there are guys like Marty Mann who stay in the hobby much longer, but they're the exception.

It makes sense if you think of it in terms of Daniel Levinson's theory on the stages of life. According to Levinson's theory, as people enter their sixties, they begin to reflect on their lives—their accomplishments, the decisions they've made, and so on and so forth. (Men are living about seven years longer now than they were in 1978 when Levinson published that theory, so maybe that stage of life has been pushed back to the late 60s/early 70s.)

Collecting comics became massively popular in the 60s and 70s, and many of the best second-owner collections belong to guys who are 60 or over already. Those guys will not be in the hobby forever.

[batman_fan]

On 9/25/2021 at 5:49 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

I think we'll see quite a bit of "cashing out" over the next few years, but not just because of where prices are. The biggest factor is the age of GA collectors. From what I've seen, most collectors cash out in their 60s. Sure, there are guys like Marty Mann who stay in the hobby much longer, but they're the exception.

It makes sense if you think of it in terms of Daniel Levinson's theory on the stages of life. According to Levinson's theory, as people enter their sixties, they begin to reflect on their lives—their accomplishments, the decisions they've made, and so on and so forth. (Men are living about seven years longer now than they were in 1978 when Levinson published that theory, so maybe that stage of life has been pushed back to the late 60s/early 70s.)

Collecting comics became massively popular in the 60s and 70s, and many of the best second-owner collections belong to guys who are 60 or over already. Those guys will not be in the hobby forever.

It will be interesting to see when I start doing some serious trimming of my collection.  I am 57 and plan to retire in a few years at which point I will have more time to go through the painful process of selling stuff.

[Aman619]

You should only sell if you need spending money.  With the estate tax deduction at 11 million… and even if it goes down to 6M soon, so long as your estate isn’t larger than the deduction (times two if you are married).  you pay zero estate tax AND your heirs get a step up in value. That means if your collection is worth 300K and your cost is 100K, the cost basis steps up to the market value of 300K for your heirs. So when THEY sell them, their capital gains tax will only be applied to any increase in value above 300K.  if YOU sell them you pay capital gains rax of 28% plus an extra 3.8% surcharge on you gains, in this case 200K, or 63K.  That’s a big hit to your heirs. And you!

Edited September 26, 2021 by Aman619

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/26/2021 at 3:39 AM, Aman619 said:

You should only sell if you need spending money.  With the estate tax deduction at 11 million… and even if it goes down to 6M soon, so long as your estate isn’t larger than the deduction (times two if you are married).  you pay zero estate tax AND your heirs get a step up in value. That means if your collection is worth 300K and your cost is 100K, the cost basis steps up to the market value of 300K for your heirs. So when THEY sell them, their capital gains tax will only be applied to any increase in value above 300K.  if YOU sell them you pay capital gains rax of 28% plus an extra 3.8% surcharge on you gains, in this case 200K, or 63K.  That’s a big hit to your heirs. And you!

Unless things have changed recently, 28% is the maximum tax rate for collectibles. Anyone in a lower bracket would pay the lower rate. Granted, selling too much in a given year could kick someone into the higher bracket. I'm not sure where the "3.8% surcharge" is coming from.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/25/2021 at 10:01 PM, batman_fan said:

It will be interesting to see when I start doing some serious trimming of my collection.  I am 57 and plan to retire in a few years at which point I will have more time to go through the painful process of selling stuff.

Painful, but emancipating. The hobby owns us, not the other way around 

[Aman619]

On 9/26/2021 at 4:53 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Unless things have changed recently, 28% is the maximum tax rate for collectibles. Anyone in a lower bracket would pay the lower rate. Granted, selling too much in a given year could kick someone into the higher bracket. I'm not sure where the "3.8% surcharge" is coming from.

Affordable care act included the extra. Applies to 20% normal capital gains too. It’s tied to your gross income. 

. The net investment income tax. Some investors may owe an additional 3.8% that applies to whichever is smaller: your net investment income or the amount by which your modified adjusted gross income exceeds the amounts listed below.

Here are the income thresholds that might make investors subject to this additional tax:

• Single or head of household: $200,000

• Married, filing jointly: $250,000

• Married, filing separately: $125,000

 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2021 by Aman619

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/26/2021 at 10:04 AM, Aman619 said:

Affordable care act included the extra. Applies to 20% normal capital gains too. It’s tied to your gross income. 

. The net investment income tax. Some investors may owe an additional 3.8% that applies to whichever is smaller: your net investment income or the amount by which your modified adjusted gross income exceeds the amounts listed below.

Here are the income thresholds that might make investors subject to this additional tax:

• Single or head of household: $200,000

• Married, filing jointly: $250,000

• Married, filing separately: $125,000

 

 

 

I've never been anywhere close to those thresholds; I guess that's why I didn't know about it.

[batman_fan]

On 9/26/2021 at 1:39 AM, Aman619 said:

You should only sell if you need spending money.  With the estate tax deduction at 11 million… and even if it goes down to 6M soon, so long as your estate isn’t larger than the deduction (times two if you are married).  you pay zero estate tax AND your heirs get a step up in value. That means if your collection is worth 300K and your cost is 100K, the cost basis steps up to the market value of 300K for your heirs. So when THEY sell them, their capital gains tax will only be applied to any increase in value above 300K.  if YOU sell them you pay capital gains rax of 28% plus an extra 3.8% surcharge on you gains, in this case 200K, or 63K.  That’s a big hit to your heirs. And you!

Those hookers and that liquor aren't going to pay for themselves.

[batman_fan]

On 9/26/2021 at 1:39 AM, Aman619 said:

You should only sell if you need spending money.  With the estate tax deduction at 11 million… and even if it goes down to 6M soon, so long as your estate isn’t larger than the deduction (times two if you are married).  you pay zero estate tax AND your heirs get a step up in value. That means if your collection is worth 300K and your cost is 100K, the cost basis steps up to the market value of 300K for your heirs. So when THEY sell them, their capital gains tax will only be applied to any increase in value above 300K.  if YOU sell them you pay capital gains rax of 28% plus an extra 3.8% surcharge on you gains, in this case 200K, or 63K.  That’s a big hit to your heirs. And you!

I think another consideration is what sort of material you have.  For example, a CGC grade Batman 1 is easy for an heir to sell through many venues and it is easy to leave instructions on all graded material, but a bunch of raw books from the 70s, 80s, 90s is a completely different story and a nightmare for someone not part of the collecting community.  My thoughts are to get rid os several thousand books and then roll the money into a few big items that would be more enjoyable and easy to move upon my untimely death.

[Aman619]

On 9/26/2021 at 11:04 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

I've never been anywhere close to those thresholds; I guess that's why I didn't know about it.

Yeah. I hear you.  Amazing what current comics values have brought to collecting …

[Aman619]

On 9/26/2021 at 12:02 PM, batman_fan said:

I think another consideration is what sort of material you have.  For example, a CGC grade Batman 1 is easy for an heir to sell through many venues and it is easy to leave instructions on all graded material, but a bunch of raw books from the 70s, 80s, 90s is a completely different story and a nightmare for someone not part of the collecting community.  My thoughts are to get rid os several thousand books and then roll the money into a few big items that would be more enjoyable and easy to move upon my untimely death.

Good idea 

[innocuous]

On 9/26/2021 at 9:02 AM, batman_fan said:

I think another consideration is what sort of material you have.  For example, a CGC grade Batman 1 is easy for an heir to sell through many venues and it is easy to leave instructions on all graded material, but a bunch of raw books from the 70s, 80s, 90s is a completely different story and a nightmare for someone not part of the collecting community.  My thoughts are to get rid os several thousand books and then roll the money into a few big items that would be more enjoyable and easy to move upon my untimely death.

This is what I’ve done the past few years. Although my collection is mostly unslabbed. I can’t see paying CGC $$$$ to slab them now. 

[lou_fine]

On 9/26/2021 at 12:39 AM, Aman619 said:

You should only sell if you need spending money.  With the estate tax deduction at 11 million… and even if it goes down to 6M soon, so long as your estate isn’t larger than the deduction (times two if you are married).  you pay zero estate tax AND your heirs get a step up in value. That means if your collection is worth 300K and your cost is 100K, the cost basis steps up to the market value of 300K for your heirs. So when THEY sell them, their capital gains tax will only be applied to any increase in value above 300K.  if YOU sell them you pay capital gains rax of 28% plus an extra 3.8% surcharge on you gains, in this case 200K, or 63K.  That’s a big hit to your heirs. And you!

Wow, this sounds almost like a heaven type scenario compared to the hellish tax scenario we have here north of you.  

Especially when our great leader claims that we don't have to pay any estate taxes like you poor suffering slobs down south,  BUT then fails to inform us the only reason for that is because every single little thing we have our name to is deemed to have been sold upon our death and hence subject to full capital gains taxes at that point, hence zero estate taxes to be paid after that.    Woooo..............how lucky we are!!!     

 

Edited September 27, 2021 by lou_fine

[Professor K]

On 9/26/2021 at 12:02 PM, batman_fan said:

I think another consideration is what sort of material you have.  For example, a CGC grade Batman 1 is easy for an heir to sell through many venues and it is easy to leave instructions on all graded material, but a bunch of raw books from the 70s, 80s, 90s is a completely different story and a nightmare for someone not part of the collecting community.  My thoughts are to get rid os several thousand books and then roll the money into a few big items that would be more enjoyable and easy to move upon my untimely death.

That was a big reason I got into graded books around 2011. Sold my few several thousands of raw books over the years and streamlined them into a couple hundred graded ones also over the years.

[woowoo]

On 9/27/2021 at 1:07 AM, lou_fine said:

Wow, this sounds almost like a heaven type scenario compared to the hellish tax scenario we have here north of you.  

Especially when our great leader claims that we don't have to pay any estate taxes like you poor suffering slobs down south,  BUT then fails to inform us the only reason for that is because every single little thing we have our name to is deemed to have been sold upon our death and hence subject to full capital gains taxes at that point, hence zero estate taxes to be paid after that.    Woooo..............how lucky we are!!!     

 

We are lucky big @lou_fine You forgot the W buddy.

[Aman619]

On 9/27/2021 at 4:07 AM, lou_fine said:

Wow, this sounds almost like a heaven type scenario compared to the hellish tax scenario we have here north of you.  

Especially when our great leader claims that we don't have to pay any estate taxes like you poor suffering slobs down south,  BUT then fails to inform us the only reason for that is because every single little thing we have our name to is deemed to have been sold upon our death and hence subject to full capital gains taxes at that point, hence zero estate taxes to be paid after that.    Woooo..............how lucky we are!!!     

 

Great leader Up north?  you mean Santa Claus?   seriously, Canada does this?  wow