ComicLink's next Featured Auction Has Started Posting Books 17 17

[mwotka]

I do think it is newer money driving up these 9.8s/9.9s.  It is buyers who finally have real money either through a successful career or perhaps an inheritance but don't appreciate true scarcity and what the functional difference between 9.6 and 9.8 is.  I know one guy, and he is a great guy, but he is obsessed with having the highest graded of every book he had as a kid.  He will pay thousands for 9.8s when the 9.4s/9.6s are hundreds, and then post piles of them on FB.  I don't understand and and I don't think it will end well.  But then again someone just made $44,000 on a Transformers 1 in 9.9 and someone else made $12,600 on a Secret Wars 9.9 so what the heck do I know?!?  There are 3 9.9 Secret Wars copies, so I can't even fathom the rationale for this, it isn't even unique.  

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, Ryan. said:

Don't forget that one hard shake or an accidental drop of the slab and that 9.9 is no longer a 9.9 in any way beyond what the label says. 

I would assume you must be referring to that rather infamous story about the mishap with the CGC 9.9 graded cpy of Hulk 181 here?      

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

well, i do imagine a billionaire's conglomerate somewhere buying everything and trying to artificially inflate values across the board. but i admit that its paranoid and highly unlikely on the scale required to affect prices on virtually everything. 

Well, from my reading of the original post, it seem pretty clear to me that he was not talking about just one or two specific billionaires driving up the entire collectibles marketplace.  

He was referring more to an entire generation of younger people with a different way of thinking and a different perspective on what's taking place in the world as compared to most of us old fogies on the board here, and I would tend to agree with his point of view here.  

Edited February 27, 2021 by lou_fine

[buttock]

1 hour ago, www.alexgross.com said:

is this why?? new money entering the field? thats what some others are saying. i honestly have no idea. 

well, i do imagine a billionaire's conglomerate somewhere buying everything and trying to artificially inflate values across the board. but i admit that its paranoid and highly unlikely on the scale required to affect prices on virtually everything. 

It's a significant part of the reason.   

[adamstrange]

1 hour ago, batman_fan said:

but if you owned $2 million in bitcoin wouldn't you be tempted to cash some of it out and put it into something else?

Myself, I would go for Peanuts strips, hookers, and liquor  

Wouldn't we all, but, if you have that much, there's no need to be careful.  Go ahead and splurge a little.

[Ryan.]

30 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

I would assume you must be referring to that rather infamous story about the mishap with the CGC 9.9 graded cpy of Hulk 181 here?      

Certainly that example, yes, but even more broadly than that. The difference between a 9.9 and 9.8 is so miniscule as to be almost undetectable. People spending tens of thousands of dollars on 9.9s, I believe, are greatly underestimating how much a comic gets bounced around, even inside of a slab, particularly during the shipping process. I suspect that the vast majority of these copies, if they were to ever be regraded, would end up 9.8s or even 9.6s.

For those who know the Signature Series world, it's generally advised to not crack open 9.8s for signature events due to how often grades come back lower. I won't even send in 9.8s in old generation slabs to upgrade to newer slabs since CGC reserves the right to inspect and regrade books sent for reholders. 

The grade on the label is merely a snapshot in time. 

[buttock]

3 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Prices are insane on some much stuff right now but if you owned $2 million in bitcoin wouldn't you be tempted to cash some of it out and put it into something else?

Myself, I would go for Peanuts strips, hookers, and liquor but to each their own. 

The people I know that are into crypto don't want out at all.  

[alexgross.com]

1 hour ago, buttock said:

It's a significant part of the reason.   

can you point to any evidence of this, or is it conjecture? just curious. 

[PKJ]

I certainly do not have the time or desire, but it would be cool if CL had a running total of sorts to see how much has been spent in a given auction, with possibly Average $$ per book as well and even a total of unique bidders (or unique by book).I am sure they use this data themselves to attract more copies of certain books but having something the end user could see would create more sense of urgency. Two bidders running up a book to the moon is one thing, 15 unique bidders doing it is all together different.  

I know other houses have a running total, but CL looks to have the edge on offerings YTD this year. 

[EastEnd1]

It would be interesting to get some insight from the auction houses as to who's bidding up and buying these books... not names of course, but general insights.  They're information would be less speculative.  Would make a good Overstreet market report (hint, hint)! 

[Randall Ries]

On 2/27/2021 at 2:21 AM, Gotham Kid said:

The current prices paid for Bronze Age (and later) Marvels are beyond stupid. The supply of ultra high grade copies is endless.

I agree. The market is being driven by people who have too much money. I'll just stick to early bronze age DC and the occasional GA book. Books that are actually hard to find in high grade. Try to remember Marvel almost went belly up and there is still a flood of Marvel issues sitting around waiting to be graded and sold to the fleeceable. An owner of a storage unit facility I knew found a unit crammed with those things. He didn't know whether to toss them or keep them. At that time, they were useless. But there were tons of them. I imagine his is only one story to be told. You deep pocketed people are going to Beanie Baby the values into the ground.

[Randall Ries]

21 hours ago, Ryan. said:

The grade on the label is merely a snapshot in time. 

That is well put. And a subjective snapshot in time at that. People who have a lot of money certainly have a right to spend it as they see fit. And even if this IS a bubble (Oh it most certainly is) and the bubble pops (Oh it most certainly will), they will just sell at a loss and move on to something else. Leaving potential shmucks like me holding the deflating value bag. I mean, I am glad that GL/GA #76 has settled back to more realistic values in the last few years. They cry and moan about it, but that book swelled up really fat in high grade, then suddenly came back down. No longer the eye candy of the year, I guess. Everyone had one eventually and ho-hum.

I'm sort of glad all the attention is being focused on the 9.8 & 9.9 craze/phase. It doesn't seem to be impacting the grades below 9.4 very much. Good. That's a lot of the real collecting worlds sweet spot. These spazzoids aren't collecting the book. They are collecting the grade. Have at it. Drive an AF 15 9.0 to $500k. I was never in the running for that book anyway. It almost feels like there is a financial advisor telling some of these people with endless cash how to do this.

Also, what is the ratio between CGC books v other grading company books seeing record sales?  I mean, I have two Frankenstein Alive graded 10.0's signed by Wrightson and Niles. Should I ask $10k a piece? Or $100,000? Because they ARE both graded 10.0. Both witnessed Niles and Wrightson signatures. Ohhhh. So sorry. They AREN'T CGC graded so THAT means they are POS's, right? Even though they look like they were printed in a vacuum and slid down the chute being signed by Wrightson and Niles on the way by straight into a slab? No? Doesn't matter? They still suck? Pssshhh. Because real POC books like virtually any Transformer book should see a ridiculous sale for over $40k. Graded by CGC. Starting to see a pattern here. hat whole thing about other grading companies being insignificant is being kept alive by CGC and its adherents. ALL grading companies had trouble finding the right spot for a given grade in the beginning. Seems like CGC moves its grading criteria around to suit them. Adding cute li'l stickers and labels. Stan Lee labels and so forth. So? Just grade the damned book correctly.

Also, it seems like there is something else funny about the early bidding activity. It didn't used to be so many bidding all at once in the first day or two. Now, there is a flurry of action early. Historically, it has been slow up until the end, then it's a feeding frenzy. Then it becomes down to two bidders like the final scene in "Highlander". Now it's like a bunch of people who know nothing about auctions doing the early bidding. Or maybe even employees of a certain grading company who are free as a bird to bid whenever and however much they want to. How many people here have actually lost a book they wanted when they were the highest bidder at 2 seconds left? Or 1? Or closing bell? Allowing for snipe bidding after the close of an auction teeters on illegal if not sketchy. I lost a Bat #6  one year because of that. I couldn't refresh the page to see and enter a bid fast enough. Some bot took the book away from me when I was clearly the last bidder with the highest bid. After the bell rang.

Guess I don't like to feel like I am in Thunderdome while bidding for books.

Edited February 28, 2021 by Randall Ries

[Crowzilla]

22 hours ago, Ryan. said:

Certainly that example, yes, but even more broadly than that. The difference between a 9.9 and 9.8 is so miniscule as to be almost undetectable. People spending tens of thousands of dollars on 9.9s, I believe, are greatly underestimating how much a comic gets bounced around, even inside of a slab, particularly during the shipping process. I suspect that the vast majority of these copies, if they were to ever be regraded, would end up 9.8s or even 9.6s.

If the HG copies get bounced around that much, wouldn't that mean all the 9.8s get damaged on the way to CGC and already end up in a 9.6 or 9.4 holder?

And I think that 9.9 Hulk 181 would hit at least $300K today, regardless of past stories about it.

[Ryan.]

8 minutes ago, Crowzilla said:

If the HG copies get bounced around that much, wouldn't that mean all the 9.8s get damaged on the way to CGC and already end up in a 9.6 or 9.4 holder?

And I think that 9.9 Hulk 181 would hit at least $300K today, regardless of past stories about it.

I didn't say all. But obviously some, potentially including those in 9.9 slabs. I didn't think that was even arguable. 

[Aman619]

It’s sure a mystery who these bidders and buyers are today.  A lot to try to figure out, but here’s two simple premises...  

number 1). we have seen the escalation of “highest grade madness” go from perfect 9.4s, to impossible 9.6s, to many years of first 9.8 insanity chasing, to building runs in 9.8.... so here we are at the next plateau: enough 9.9s to fuel a market.  When there were 35 9.6s the first 9.8 went ballistic.  Same thing now with the 9.8 column bursting at the seems. Grading may have gotten looser, and more unread moderns have gotten pressed and slabbed of late, but these books are still scarce out of the billions of comics printed.  CGC may have opened the door to 9.9s but they don’t give them away easily.  

number 2). Another comics collecting phenomenon we have experienced is at play with a new bunch of collectors:  we are shocked by these sales because in OUR experiences, mega keys were less than today’s cars cost, and many of these books like Transformers 1 are dollar bin non-sellers,  we have a well established sense of what comics are worth.  But repeatedly, over time, new collectors or speculators, or just people who decide one day that they gotta have something go and pay whatever it takes for it.. and at auction which as we know fuels these crazy hammer prices. And these people are fine paying the new (Absurd) price. They are new to these hobbies and weren’t collecting when we were so they don’t have the hard limits in their minds like we do.  Also, if they are young, they grew up with Moderns.  You know the mass produced stuff that was even worse then the Bronze carp that was derivative of the true silver Age classics. (from some of our personal perspectives).  
 

So long as the hobby keeps growing, and new collectors are the key to this,  the truth is, from an investment stance, they are right.  I paid some crazy prices in the oughts to upgrade HG key issues.  I was embarrassed to admit some of my purchases.  But it’s freaking 20 years later now.. the hobby demographics haven’t killed it, the death of print hasn’t hurt it, and those buys I made even have my financial guys respect.  Many of us have 40 years of collecting and have seen waves of such price increase phases. 

so yes I agree with all of you that this is whacked. and want to know WHO these new people are. And will they stick around post pandemic when there’s a lot more to do than scour the Internet buying stuff?  Or post Marvel/superhero pop culture hegemony?  I find it incredible that there’s so much new money at play, 50K comics add up to real money pretty darn quick. Let’s see where it goes....  if they win, we win.

 

[Mmehdy]

On 2/27/2021 at 10:26 AM, lou_fine said:

Well, from my reading of the original post, it seem pretty clear to me that he was not talking about just one or two specific billionaires driving up the entire collectibles marketplace.  

He was referring more to an entire generation of younger people with a different way of thinking and a different perspective on what's taking place in the world as compared to most of us old fogies on the board here, and I would tend to agree with his point of view here.  

The real issue here is how long are they going to stay.....their exit could be much quicker than a true comic book collector with a history of collecting..we might be old fogies, but heck we have incredible staying power....

[Aman619]

But we don’t buy like we used to, so we are irrelevant bystanders to the market.  Which is fine, others are leading the way now... in everything.. 

[Randall Ries]

2 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

The real issue here is how long are they going to stay.....their exit could be much quicker than a true comic book collector with a history of collecting..we might be old fogies, but heck we have incredible staying power....

Which with much fewer words is what I was trying to illustrate. If they are somehow bored or don't trust Wall Street enough to go full guns again and see the collectibles market as a great place to invest in or even hide money, then they will. They are not collectors but speculators. They create what is called a "bubble". A "bubble" is what happens when things are artificially priced, then becomes unsustainable, then implodes. They seem to do ok. They then buy stocks low as other people who kinda needed the value for - oh - I don't know - retirement? Medical insurance as they age? - are left broke.

See. They can AFFORD to come in and mess with "values" and then bail out afterward. I am still amazed at what people have paid for an IH 181  last week. TENS of thousands for a 9.0? You say we have staying power. And we were essentially the driving force behind values. We made the OPG worth referring to. Many of us bought actually RARE books. Those books are still seeing only incremental value bumps. The golden age books. The actually rare books. And early silver age. And now we are expected to believe a lousy Transformer book is worth $40k to someone. What's next? Is a Rainbow Bright giveaway suddenly going to be "worth" thousands?

A friend a few years ago was talking about comics he lied. One was G.I. Joe. And I couldn't for the life of me understand why anyone would want to read a rag like G.I. Joe. A book based on a toy and then later a tv show. But it occurred to me later he was at the right age where he grew up watching the show then got interested in the books as a result. So sure. I can see it. But assigning them values 3 or 4x what say a Bat #9 in 9.4 would get? That's nuts only because of the sheer number of G.I. Joe books still lying around.

Whatever is going on is unusual. Especially the auction things.

[Randall Ries]

1 minute ago, Aman619 said:

But we don’t buy like we used to, so we are irrelevant bystanders to the market.  Which is fine, others are leading the way now... in everything.. 

How can we buy like we used to with people expecting $40k for a Transformers #1?

[adamstrange]

1 hour ago, Randall Ries said:

A friend a few years ago was talking about comics he lied. One was G.I. Joe. And I couldn't for the life of me understand why anyone would want to read a rag like G.I. Joe. A book based on a toy and then later a tv show. But it occurred to me later he was at the right age where he grew up watching the show then got interested in the books as a result.

In the case of GI Joe, Shooter, Goodwin and Larry Hama worked with Hasbro from the start of the GI Joe 80s revival.  Yes, the toys were among the most popular 80s toys, but so were the comics and animated TV show based on concepts and characters from Marvel.  It should not be a surprise that someone who grew up reading those books would later be interested in getting the best copy or pages of the original art.  Pride and joy of one of the biggest art collectors on the Boards is the complete art to GI Joe 21, a wordless issue.

Edited February 28, 2021 by adamstrange