Market correction , will we see any effect on comics? 7 7

[WolverineX]

Comic keys going to drop these next few months?

[The Lions Den]

Let's hope that things straighten out soon...

[MGsimba77]

I wouldn't think so. Comiclink had some impressive auction results this week. 

[dupont2005]

I don’t think comics are as volatile as stocks. A recession might make keys in the five figure and under range drop, if you have an Action #1 you’re probably fine

[fastballspecial]

Collectibles in an extended down market are the first to go. It will become a buyers market fast.

Now the question is when is it a down market? Right now a really bad week. Another key look is
volume. Volume keeps increasing next week and continues to fall then yep there is a problem. 

Diversification is the key. 

 

[WolverineX]

2 hours ago, fastballspecial said:

Collectibles in an extended down market are the first to go. It will become a buyers market fast.

Now the question is when is it a down market? Right now a really bad week. Another key look is
volume. Volume keeps increasing next week and continues to fall then yep there is a problem. 

Diversification is the key. 

 

It's a correction now but the virus has barely disrupted life in the US. If it worsens can you imagine what happens if a major city like nyc gets quarantined?

[fastballspecial]

49 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

It's a correction now but the virus has barely disrupted life in the US. If it worsens can you imagine what happens if a major city like nyc gets quarantined?

Until we reach Spanish Flu numbers I am not concerned.  I can tell you from a manufacturing side the results will hit later when China's impact is felt.

A cruise ship is where I wouldn't to be that's a petri dish.

 

[James J Johnson]

7 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

Comic keys going to drop these next few months?

No. Not any more than what we've seen over the last year or so, certain books that skyrocketed up in price due to movie hype falling back down to earth once movie driven demand cooled off. (books like X-Men 101, X-Factor 6, Ms. Marvel 1, MSH 13. MSH 18, TTA 13, etc. and many more come to mind). On a whole, the hobby will prosper as investors, once gung-ho on the ever rising stock market index become skittish, once they experience their first losses, get out, and look elsewhere for a haven safer from investing in a market where unforseen circumstances beyond human control can decimate their 401K and/or investment portfolio.

Plus the comics are fun. A lot more fun looking at something you owned and cherished as a child than a share in something you can't see and hold. People need to put the money someplace and one of those areas falters, and that faction of money become leery, they look for other areas. The comic hobby will benefit, as will other collectible areas from this bear run on the market.

Edited February 29, 2020 by James J Johnson

[fastballspecial]

7 hours ago, James J Johnson said:

No. Not any more than what we've seen over the last year or so, certain books that skyrocketed up in price due to movie hype falling back down to earth once movie driven demand cooled off. (books like X-Men 101, X-Factor 6, Ms. Marvel 1, MSH 13. MSH 18, TTA 13, etc. and many more come to mind). On a whole, the hobby will prosper as investors, once gung-ho on the ever rising stock market index become skittish, once they experience their first losses, get out, and look elsewhere for a haven safer from investing in a market where unforseen circumstances beyond human control can decimate their 401K and/or investment portfolio.

Plus the comics are fun. A lot more fun looking at something you owned and cherished as a child than a share in something you can't see and hold. People need to put the money someplace and one of those areas falters, and that faction of money become leery, they look for other areas. The comic hobby will benefit, as will other collectible areas from this bear run on the market.

That depends. If the market continues a steady fall sellers will panic and sell. If enough continue to do so value will fall and will create good buying opportunities. 
The sellers market will end. Not saying that will happen, but the next week or two will tell us. Con season is starting soon.

 

[Buzzetta]

13 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

It's a correction now but the virus has barely disrupted life in the US. If it worsens can you imagine what happens if a major city like nyc gets quarantined?

Somehow, I don't think that would happen.   Could it happen?  Anything could happen.  But I don't think that could happen. 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Buzzetta

[90sChild]

If anything, the real smart people will be sector rotating out of the stock market into comics   Comics cannot be shorted like stocks.  But honestly most people who have the disposable income to blow money on expensive key books probably don't need the cash on hand to keep their lives running normally.  There are not really any 'institutional investors' in comics so it is not like a huge supply is about to be dumped on the market place where buyers can't keep up.  If prices drop it is likely from people not having the disposable income to keep their lives running.

Edited February 29, 2020 by 90sChild

[Michelangelo]

A market crash will see the value of comics drop as people lose jobs and have to liquidate their books to make ends meet. (e.g. 2008-2009)

This past week is a correction, not a crash. Comic sales may slow as people are on the sidelines waiting to see how things play out.

I don't anticipate this week's stock market dip to trickle into comic book values

[WolverineX]

3 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

Somehow, I don't think that would happen.   Could it happen?  Anything could happen.  But I don't think that could happen. 

Hopefully not, but if enough cases spike in a city, quarantines work and will happen. 

[Buzzetta]

1 hour ago, Wolverinex said:

Hopefully not, but if enough cases spike in a city, quarantines work and will happen. 

I don't wanna go to work in a quarantine...  

[James J Johnson]

double posted

Edited February 29, 2020 by James J Johnson

[Buzzetta]

2 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

A few other factors to consider in the past year.  Sales tax.  I'm hearing a big impact in the way people strategically bid and buy.  A postage rate increase, especially the international rates. 

The sales tax collection translates into up to a 10% drop in bid amounts to take that into consideration. If you would ordinarily think nothing of hitting a BIN for $1000, now, you're thinking "I'll offer $900 because once sales tax and postage factors in, I'm paying $1000.

I wonder how much cause and effect there is to this for the prices being realized and collected by GP in the past year. $1000 for a book two years ago, now = $900 for the book + extras. Buyer is still paying $1000, but the sale is for $900, a 10% drop in value, but technically not a drop. A correction in how bidding is approached in the new Ebay sales tax collection era.

I was writing in response to NYC possibly placed under quarantine. 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Buzzetta

[James J Johnson]

double posted

Edited February 29, 2020 by James J Johnson

[Buzzetta]

2 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

That, but prior to that, you and others were discussing the comic market. Key issues dropping and such.  And sales tax has played a major role in that is what I've heard.

Others... not me.  I was writing in reference to NYC possibly placed under quarantine. 

[Lurker89]

Those of us with bigger eyes than wallets would love a good crash.

[James J Johnson]

Wrong quote. Corrected

Edited February 29, 2020 by James J Johnson