Market correction , will we see any effect on comics? 7 7

[MGsimba77]

2 minutes ago, Bird said:

yes, ended already

IM 1 9.0 $200-$400 under gpa

IH181 (I think it was 4.0) also $200-$400 under gpa

asm slabs at 60-70% gpa

asm 1 cgc went fmv or a little over though

archie annual 4 cgc 8.0 was about 2/3rds gpa but not a lot of sales to compare

that is after fees, not before

There's some big books in higher grades ending next Saturday on HA... We'll see.

You also need to account for sales tax now

[Bird]

Just now, MGsimba77 said:

There's some big books in higher grades ending next Saturday on HA... We'll see.

You also need to account for sales tax now

it wasn't crazy low, no but I thought it was consistently a little low but I don't follow regularly, just thought I would see what happened tonight out of curiosity 

[lou_fine]

Just now, Bird said:

you know better than to quote guide! gpa on a 3.0 is $312 in 9/2018

I guess that's becasue I have a copy of the guide, but no subscription to GPA since I am mostly interested in GA books which don't tend to sell often enough to get a valid representative sample of prices.

What does this beautiful red Phantom Ace cover copy show for in GPA:

For what it's worth, mid-grade condition guide value of only $33 or thereabouts, and yet sold for huge multiples as it sold for $900 with the BP juice in there.    

[Bird]

2 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

I guess that's becasue I have a copy of the guide, but no subscription to GPA since I am mostly interested in GA books which don't tend to sell often enough to get a valid representative sample of prices.

What does this beautiful red Phantom Ace cover copy show for in GPA:

For what it's worth, mid-grade condition guide value of only $33 or thereabouts, and yet sold for huge multiples as it sold for $900 with the BP juice in there.    

no gpa on Ace Comics 151 

I was just teasing you. But I do not know why they quote guide on the books that are slabbed, especially GA.

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, LordRahl said:

21 hours ago, lou_fine said:

By "impressive", would you be referring to books like this CGC 5.5 graded copy of AF 15 here:

https://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FDEFAULT.ASP%3FFocused%3D1%26pg%3D16%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%23Item_1373725&id=1373725&itemType=0

Looks like this mid-grade copy here managed to fetched $36,500 when we had a few CGC 5.0 graded copies selling in the $50K+ range a couple of years ago.  

Soooo... the sale of ONE book now determines the health of the market?!?

Definitely not the case, although books like AF 15 and Hulk 181 have often been used in the past as an indicator of how the market is going.

It's just that books like these are seen as bellweather books when they seem to be going up in value, so it's only fair to indicate when they are also plateauing or going down in value. 

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Bird said:

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Based upon your post here, so I flip over to the Heritage Auction to find the first 4 books being Ace Comics with the Phantom covers and guess what:

This copy here with a condition guide price of under $25 ends up seling for $432;, with the other 3 Phantom Ace copies also selling for big multiples to condition guide.  

you know better than to quote guide! gpa on a 3.0 is $312 in 9/2018

Well, this is definitely good to know since I just realized why this particular cover looks so familiar, as it seems like I have a relatively HG copy of this book here.  

Hopefully, I'll be able to get the same kind of money when it comes time to sell it, as these lower valued GA books often sells based more upon availability, as opposed to strict condition grades.  

[LordRahl]

6 hours ago, Bird said:

yes, ended already

IM 1 9.0 $200-$400 under gpa

IH181 (I think it was 4.0) also $200-$400 under gpa

asm slabs at 60-70% gpa

asm 1 cgc went fmv or a little over though

archie annual 4 cgc 8.0 was about 2/3rds gpa but not a lot of sales to compare

that is after fees, not before

Not really. IM 1 does not have a set GPA price. The range of prices for this book ranges from $1000 all the way up to $3900 in the last 2 years. The one tonight sold within that range although obviously in the lower part of the range at $1320. I keep preaching this... there is no set "FMV" for any book. FMV is a range and usually a pretty broad one. Any one, or even 2 or 3 sales, of a book that is this commonly traded is meaningless if it's within its expected range of outcomes. I'm guessing the rest of your "under GPA by x %" will be the same thing... you assigning a FMV that never existed in the first place.

[comicnoir]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, this is definitely good to know since I just realized why this particular cover looks so familiar, as it seems like I have a relatively HG copy of this book here.  

Hopefully, I'll be able to get the same kind of money when it comes time to sell it, as these lower valued GA books often sells based more upon availability, as opposed to strict condition grades.  

You never see these books. The thrill of the new.

[Bird]

1 hour ago, LordRahl said:

Not really. IM 1 does not have a set GPA price. The range of prices for this book ranges from $1000 all the way up to $3900 in the last 2 years. The one tonight sold within that range although obviously in the lower part of the range at $1320. I keep preaching this... there is no set "FMV" for any book. FMV is a range and usually a pretty broad one. Any one, or even 2 or 3 sales, of a book that is this commonly traded is meaningless if it's within its expected range of outcomes. I'm guessing the rest of your "under GPA by x %" will be the same thing... you assigning a FMV that never existed in the first place.

that is why I gave a range of value under gpa

of course there is no set price but if you are buying last night was a fair night to be doing so

[theCapraAegagrus]

Yes.

[delekkerste]

15 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

The corona virus is not causing a recession. But the cessation of trading with China is 

Yep.  The seasonal flu doesn't cause massive disruptions to supply chains and end markets like this new strain is doing.  The world will probably print negative GDP in Q1.  Chinese GDP will be down quarter-on-quarter.  Japan will print a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth (the technical definition of a recession).  US GDP growth will have a 1-handle at best.  

[lou_fine]

7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

16 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

The corona virus is not causing a recession. But the cessation of trading with China is 

Yep.  The seasonal flu doesn't cause massive disruptions to supply chains and end markets like this new strain is doing.  The world will probably print negative GDP in Q1.  Chinese GDP will be down quarter-on-quarter.  Japan will print a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth (the technical definition of a recession).  US GDP growth will have a 1-handle at best.  

Unfortunately, I would agree with you here, but at the same time, isn't this really simply being caused by an overreaction to a new virus strain which we don't have a handle on yet.  

Of course, this panic and fear is totally understandable given the fact that we are almost provided with minute to minute updates on the number of Corona Virus cases and deaths around the world by the news media and social platforms.  Makes me wonder how much more fear and disruptions to the supply chain would have taken place if they had done body counts at the top of the news every hour for the 45 million Americans that caught the seasonal flu and the 61,000 associated deaths that occurred last year.  

[LordRahl]

7 hours ago, Bird said:

that is why I gave a range of value under gpa

of course there is no set price but if you are buying last night was a fair night to be doing so

If the range is $1000-3900, then how is it "under GPA"? It sold for $1300.

[greggy]

On ‎2‎/‎29‎/‎2020 at 9:11 PM, gadzukes said:

I agree.  To me it seemed like investors in 08/09 were taking their money out of stocks and looking at alternative places to invest.  Comics saw a surge in buyers.  That's what my memory is telling me.  Am I wrong?

At the time I thought "Wow, comics seem to be recession proof"

I started consigning pretty well all my CGC books to ComicLink in 2009 and looking back, there were records sales on books that have never been replicated.  Yes, part of the reason probably has to lower census numbers at that time but I did recall that pretty well everything exceed my expectations. 

[1Cool]

1 hour ago, LordRahl said:

If the range is $1000-3900, then how is it "under GPA"? It sold for $1300.

Come on - its pretty standard practice to say GPA is the 90 day average (or possibly the 12 month average). 

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, LordRahl said:

9 hours ago, Bird said:

that is why I gave a range of value under gpa

of course there is no set price but if you are buying last night was a fair night to be doing so

If the range is $1000-3900, then how is it "under GPA"? It sold for $1300.

Now that definitely looks like a pretty broad range to be running at in terms of 390% or 290% or whatever it is.  

So, I guess if this book had sold at say $3,600 it would still be within the exact same GPA range and if you was selling, last night was a fair night to be doing so.  

[Bird]

Batman 121 was one I was watching last night as well. Waaay under gpa. 

I have a cgc 2.5 so I was watching the cgc 3.0, it ended at $840 after BP - last 2 before that sold at $1420 and $1000 and this $840 was one of lowest in a while

I will be watching next weekend too, just out of curiosity mostly (my many bids were not good enough last night but I went to bed before it was over and was close on a few). I should have stayed up for the Planet Comics 72, sold at $180 after BP. Congrats if anyone here got it!

[James J Johnson]

On ‎2‎/‎29‎/‎2020 at 10:47 PM, lou_fine said:

By "impressive", would you be referring to books like this CGC 5.5 graded copy of AF 15 here:

https://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FDEFAULT.ASP%3FFocused%3D1%26pg%3D16%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%23Item_1373725&id=1373725&itemType=0

Looks like this mid-grade copy here managed to fetched $36,500 when we had a few CGC 5.0 graded copies selling in the $50K+ range a couple of years ago.  

But other factors may play a significant part in a $15,000 difference between the perceived value of one AF 15 in CGC 5.5 versus another. Bump potential from a press, the main one.

Edited March 2, 2020 by James J Johnson

[LordRahl]

2 hours ago, 1Cool said:

Come on - its pretty standard practice to say GPA is the 90 day average (or possibly the 12 month average). 

It is? In my experience, GPA is whatever number out of the GPA prices people can find that will support whatever argument they are making.

[LordRahl]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Now that definitely looks like a pretty broad range to be running at in terms of 390% or 290% or whatever it is.  

So, I guess if this book had sold at say $3,600 it would still be within the exact same GPA range and if you was selling, last night was a fair night to be doing so.  

Which of course has nothing to do with any market trend. Which is my point. By the way... market is up 5% today. Should we be expecting a boom in comics now?